The Bad and Ugly
By The Gold Sheet
Many years ago, when our weekly handicapping sessions were conducted in the cozy confines of what we lovingly called our "war room" at our former West L.A. offices, the upcoming schedule would invariably involve teams that were, sparing the use of a more colorful term, struggling. While collectively mulling over whether their losing streaks would continue, and debating whether another vote against those underachievers should be cast, The Gold Sheet founder Mort Olshan would often serve us a reminder. "What is the worst thing that can happen," said Mort, "if you go against them again? You lose the game? Heck, you can lose any game on the card. So, what's the problem going against a team that you know is out of sync?
"Make them prove us wrong."
If Mort were still with us, we're sure he would have been quick to offer the same reminder to us as the current NFL season has unfolded. After the first seven weeks of the 2009 season, we can't remember a campaign in which so many NFL teams have been so uncompetitive. Indeed, the "have nots" seem to greatly outnumber the "haves" this year in pro football, creating a set of circumstances that even veteran linesmakers and sports book managers in Las Vegas are struggling to accommodate.
We've seen oddsmakers occasionally forced to make radical adjustments in NFL point-spreads before (most recently two years ago, when the Patriots were regularly destroying opposition for the first half of '07; more on them in a moment). But it's not a stray uncommonly strong or weak team that the linesmakers are worrying about these days. Rather, it's a proliferation of mostly bad squads that has made each pro football weekend a white-knuckle ride for the sports book managers in Las Vegas.
To wit: through the first seven weeks of the current NFL season, there were not only three winless (straight up) teams, but there were also several more stragglers who were also getting hammered almost every week and with rare exception had experienced success only when facing one another. The combined straight-up records of St. Louis, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, and Washington was 7-47 through seven weeks. Their combined pointspread record was a bit better (17-37), but still decidedly subpar. Moreover, it has been the manner of many of their defeats that has caused oddsmakers so much grief. In short, the linesmakers have been unable, or have been unwilling, to make the sort of radical adjustments that might be more in line with the performance patterns of so many bad teams. At least for now.
"We have to be careful how much we adjust these numbers," says Bob Scucci, who runs the sports book operations for Coast Casinos in Las Vegas. "I doubt we'll do the sort of radical adjustments we did with New England two years ago, when a lot of the smart money starting showing up against the Patriots when the numbers got out of hand. In that case we got beat on the way up and then on the way down. We'll make adjustments as necessary this season, but they'll be more gradual.
"There is always a disparity between the good and bad teams, but still, we've never quite seen anything like this season. In a lot of these games, the pointspreads aren't coming into effect. So far this year, these bad teams often aren't losing anywhere near the spreads. It's hard to get customers interested in betting on the Rams or Browns. But we know if we adjust the numbers too much, we could double or triple our exposure."
Scucci adds that some of the biggest headaches the books are dealing with this season have come on, of all things, the parlay cards that are usually money-makers for the house. "There are always several 'public' teams like the Colts, Cowboys, Steelers, and Patriots that appear on an inordinate number of parlay bets," says Scucci. "This year, with some of those bad teams thrown into the mix, it is creating a lot of one-way action on those parlay cards. And I can't remember a year when we have had so many big payouts on the parlays. Which is a real risk for some of the properties (sports books) that offer specials and higher parlay payouts than usual to attract the action.
"From our perspective, it takes an awfully long time to win that money back, if we ever can, from a customer who hits on a big parlay."
Although some have wondered if the books are really taking the sort of hit during this NFL season that some of them have claimed (after all, what better way to attract business than to announce that the house is at a disadvantage?), Scucci maintains that indeed it has been a much tougher year, at least to this point, than sports books have experienced in recent memory. Concurring is veteran Las Vegas linesmaker Keith Glantz, who also says that there is something of an "etiquette" among sports books and their dealings with their clientele that needs to be understood.
"When the books are doing well, they're never going to be rubbing it into their audience," says Glantz. "At the same time, when they're losing, they're not afraid to let the public know about it, because it also makes sure that the suits upstairs know that it has been an uncommonly tough ride."
Glantz also believes that parlay action caused some of the New England numbers to go through the roof two years ago. "Books were really getting hit on the Patriots and Patriots 'over' for the first half of that season, and really had to do something to stem that if they could," said Glantz. "By raising those New England prices so high it helped to cut down on that parlay exposure that had been hurting them badly in the first half of the year."
Glantz also acknowledges that he's never seen a season with so many bad teams, but maintains there is still something of an order about things that hasn't been altered too much. "The public is always favorite-oriented, and this season is no different," says Glantz. "But not every favorite. Some of the more popular teams like Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Indy just get more action than others. Books are always going to be at some risk, especially on the parlays, if all of those teams cover in the same week. Week Seven was bad enough for the house, but it would have been even worse had the Giants covered in that Sunday night game vs. Arizona, because, as usual, the Giants were included in a lot of parlays."
"Books don't always win if the underdogs come in big every week, either. It's just that their greatest exposure is with the popular favorites all doing well at the same time. And since a lot of these public teams have been facing the bad teams in recent weeks, it's been a bit scary."
As always, stay tuned.