The Middle Class
By Bruce Marshall
After covering the NFL for the past 52 years, we at THE GOLD SHEET are wondering if we've ever experienced anything quite like the way the 2009 season is unfolding. We can't remember seeing "class" distinctions quite so pronounced, with so many "haves" and "have nots" in the mix. Indeed, it's not too different from what has become of Major League Baseball and the NBA, where the delineation between their contenders and pretenders has been similarly pronounced for years.
Indeed, those pro sports fans seeking parity these days are apparently reduced to the NHL and not much else.
But squeezing the NFL "middle class" has another unfortunate byproduct. That's because some of the most intriguing storylines of each NFL season often emerge from the middle of the league, squads bunched somewhere in the midst of the pack. These teams are usually good enough to beat the best on the right day, but also erratic enough to get beat by the worst of the lot on their off days. They'll often remain on the periphery of the playoff discussion into December. Some might even emerge as legit playoff contenders (hence providing those tasty storylines); others fade away, often placing their coach's job into jeopardy. Often times, they're reduced to spoiler roles in the final few weeks of the campaign.
And there appear to be fewer of them this season than usual.
But as mentioned above, what we're really noticing this year is a proliferation of bad teams that are already effectively out of the playoff chase before midseason. The ranks of the NFL's "middle class" has been thinned by the likes of Oakland, St. Louis, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, Buffalo, and apparently Tennessee and Washington (sorry, Skins fans), who already appear reduced to jockeying for the best draft positions by Columbus Day.
So, how does the "middle class" of the league stand? Following is a brief review as we hit mid-October.
Arizona Cardinals...Interestingly, we're not sure the Cardinals really qualified as an "elite" team last year despite advancing to the Super Bowl. Remember, the Cards of the '08 regular season were erratic, crossing the tape at a very modest 9-7 before catching fire in January. Much like last year's regular season, the Cardinals are not running the ball effectively; they're gaining just 3.1 ypc, haven't sprung a run longer than 17 yards, and are wondering when they'll see a return on their investment for a first-round pick in Ohio State's Beanie Wells, mostly a non-factor thus far and bothered by fumble-itis to boot. Kurt Warner's downfield passing game has also been rather muted, with both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin gaining less than 12 yards per catch. Although the defense has mostly held up, the Cards are likely to continue their erratic pattern unless they develop a more-consistent infantry diversion.
Atlanta Falcons...We're not quite ready to put the Falcons into an "elite" class just yet, even though they're off a rousing playoff season a year ago and have broken a solid 3-1 from the gate. The offseason addition of All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez filled the one glaring gap on the attack end, WR Roddy White continues to develop into one of the league's best deep threats, and QB Matt Ryan figures to be even more effective in his sophomore season. Still, however, we remain a bit concerned about a defense that lost so much in free agency and was pushed around in its only loss in four starts, a 26-10 setback at New England when the Patriots were able to control matters in the pits and indicated that the Falcons might miss NT Grady Jackson more than they imagined. We still need to see a little more evidence before granting Atlanta "elite" status.
Carolina Panthers...No longer in the elite class despite last year's NFC South title, the Panthers appear to be headed in the wrong direction. QB Jake Delhomme certainly looks to be on the downside of his career, picking up where he left off in last January's numbing playoff loss to the Cardinals by tossing just 3 TDs and 8 picks in the first four games of the season. With Delhomme not consistently stretching the field, opponents are loading up against the run, and the infantry in turn hasn't been the strength it was a year ago. Making matters worse is that the defense against the run has been porous (allowing 5 ypc), and the stop unit has not impressed under new d.c. Ron Meeks. DE Julius Peppers' long-term prospects are also up in the air after being slapped with the franchise tag in a bruising series of offseason negotiations. The team was mostly a bystander in free agency this season, with some believing that's just a preview of things to come with a non-cap year looming in 2010.
Green Bay Packers...Although surely closer to moving into the upper tier than the lower tier, we're not ready to grant the Pack "elite" status just yet, even though QB Aaron Rodgers has posted impressive numbers since taking over at QB last season. Still, the Pack is only 7-13 straight up since a year ago and just 2-2 this season, dropping a pair of close decisions vs. solid opposition (Bengals & Vikings). We like many of the indicators in Green Bay, including an apparently improved defense (now aligned in a 3-4 look) under the tutelage of new d.c. Dom Capers, but until the Pack signals it can consistently win the close ones with Rodgers at the helm, they'll stay parked just below the top level.
Houston Texans...A perennial poster child for the NFL's "middle class" the past few seasons, the Texans remain stuck in a sort of limbo, teasing supporters with occasional flashy performances, but too often relinquishing those gains with subsequent sloppy efforts. The zig-zag pattern might continue unless the Texans can shore up their rush defense (allowing 5.2 ypc) and juice up their own infantry that is gaining a paltry 3.0 ypc. On the plus side, QB Matt Schaub is on track for over 30 TDP and a threat to reach 5000 passing yards, while WR Andre Johnson looks destined for another Pro Bowl trip. HC Gary Kubiak failed in offseason attempts to sign a big, physical RB to provide another ground game dimension besides the quicksilver Steve Slaton; the Texans' failures with Chris Brown down at the goal line in the final moments of last week's loss at Arizona underlined those issues. Kubiak is hinting that he might just let Schaub continue to wing it and forget about using the infantry to balance things, perhaps incorporating Al Davis' old philosophy of using the pass to open up the run instead. A very intriguing team, however, because of Schaub and the ability to outscore any foe on the schedule.
Jacksonville Jaguars...They've made progress from last season, when injuries wiped out the offensive line and the team collapsed to a 4-12 mark. But last week's 41-0 loss at Seattle again raises questions about the Jags being a viable postseason contender. For Jack Del Rio's team to make a playoff run (and perhaps save his job), the defense simply has to relocate its past rush (and fast) after recording a paltry 4 sacks in the first five games. The secondary has been also guilty of sloppy tackling and has already allowed 11 TDP. On the plus side, QB David Garrard (only 1 pick) is mostly eliminating mistakes, vet FA signee Torry Holt has emerged as a solid (and much-needed) go-to receiving target, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew might be on his way to 1500 YR. With three currently winless teams (Rams, Titans, and Chiefs) in the queue, the Jags could easily be in the playoff mix in November. If not, Del Rio's job prospects in J'ville will be looking rather murky.
Miami Dolphins...They're temporarily righted a listing ship in Miami, as back-to-back home wins over the Bills and Jets have put the Dolphins back into the AFC East race after 3 losses to begin the season. The early fears about 2nd-year QB Chad Henne taking over the offense after Chad Pennington's season (and perhaps career)-ending shoulder injury in week three at San Diego have mostly abated after Henne has paced the past two wins, looking especially impressive last Monday vs. Rex Ryan's Jets defense. Keep in mind that Henne was already being penciled in as Miami's likely 2010 starter; the timeframe has simply been moved up a bit. Of course, Henne's success will largely depend upon Miami's ability to continue establishing the run, a category in which it leads the NFL at the moment. The "Wildcat" looks that were listless in the early season games have suddenly become potent once more, with Ronnie Brown terrorizing the Jets on Monday. Since the Dolphins can run the ball and play representative defense (with a young secondary improving by the week), they figure to remain competitive, perhaps more than that if Henne continues to look as good as his Jet effort indicates.
New York Jets...Although the Jets hinted that they could be ready to break into the "elite" class with wins in their first three games, Rex Ryan's new program has hit a speed bump the past two weeks when losing on the road vs. the Saints and Dolphins, indicating that the Jets aren't there quite yet. The breakdowns defensively in Monday's loss at Miami were particularly galling to Ryan, who appeared to be assembling a defense in the mold of his Raven stop units when he was Baltimore's d.c in recent seasons. But after getting emasculated by the Miami ground game, there is evidence that Ryan's Jets might simply be bullies after blinking vs. a foe that gladly decided to engage them in a mano y mano battle in the tranches. Let's also not forget that the Jets are still starting a rookie QB, Mark Sanchez. More evidence is needed before bumping the Jets up another level.
San Francisco 49ers...Last week's 45-10 home loss to the Falcons indicates that the 49ers are still a ways from being a finished product. In particular, just how far can San Francisco go with Shaun Hill at QB? Although he's been a fairly effective game-manager for Mike Singletary, the 49ers are going to have some problems in comeback mode if Hill is going to be asked to make some plays. At their best, the 49ers will try to control the ball on the ground with either Frank Gore (when healthy) or Glen Coffee running the ball, and Hill implementing a short, ball-control passing game. Unlike a team such as Denver, however, the 49ers don't have the sort of gamebreaking receiving targets that can provide another dimension to the attack. Our basic belief is that the 49ers might be able to steal the West at 10-6 or so if Arizona and Seattle both misfire. But until Singletary is able to upgrade the QB position, the 49er upside is probably limited.
Seattle Seahawks...Not long ago the Seahawks could have been classified in the "elite" class, although last season they qualified for FEMA aid as they slipped to an injury-marred 4-12. And at 2-3 through the first five weeks, we're not sure in which direction Seattle will head, or if it even trends up, down, or sideways. But the X-factor to consider at Qwest Field is QB Matt Hasselbeck, who missed most of last season with knee and back injuries and was out for a couple of games the first month of this season while recovering from a broken rib suffered in week two at San Francisco. Although backup Seneca Wallace has been serviceable in relief, he does not manage a game as well as Hasselbeck, who lead the Seahawks to a rousing 41-0 romp past the Jags in his comeback game last week. With a healthy Hasselbeck in the lineup, the Seahawks have been the team to beat in the NFC West for most of this decade; without him, they're an also-ran. Thus, the weekly injury report (and whether or not Hasselbeck's name appears on it) will likely determine the eventual course of the Seattle campaign.