NFL Top 5: Football's Toughest Schedules
By JOSH NAGEL
Handicapping the NFL strength of schedule is a time-tested tool used by professional bettors when wagering on teams’ win totals and weekly games.
“Sure, a team’s schedule in the NFL can be a factor,” said handicapper Blake Stevens of Henderson, Nev. “I look to fade teams on the end of a back-to-back stretch against string opponents, particularly if they played well in the first game.
“I also look for spots against mediocre opponents the following week. A lot of teams can get up for the big game, then lose a little focus against an inferior opponent.”
Strength of schedule tends to be somewhat misleading because the rankings are solely based on last year’s records. But it tends to even out because some teams that were strong last year but have down seasons will be off-set by others that will break through.
Here is a quick look at the Top 5 toughest NFL schedules for the upcoming season and some of the key games highlighting the calendar.
Miami Dolphins
(Win total: 7, Super Bowl odds: +5000)
It appears the Bill Parcells-orchestrated turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5 is going to be difficult to build on for coach Tony Sparano’s club. This season, simply clipping the over for their posted win total of seven might be considered a success. In short, Miami’s schedule starts brutal and stays that way.
The Dolphins open with road games at the Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers, sandwiched around a visit from the Indianapolis Colts. If they manage to stay in contention until season’s end, they have a road trip at the Tennessee Titans Dec. 20 to look forward to and the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers visit Miami in the season finale Jan. 3.
Carolina Panthers
(Win total: 8.5, Super Bowl odds: +1700)
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Panthers would be out for redemption after their blowout home loss to the Arizona Cardinals abruptly ended last year’s campaign. In order to do so, Carolina is going to have to earn it the hard way.
Beset by some question marks on defense and an aging and erratic quarterback in Jake Delhomme, the Panthers have tough opponents sprinkled throughout their schedule. They host the Philadelphia Eagles Sept. 15, followed by back-to-back road trips to the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys.
Carolina wraps up the season with a road trip to face the New York Giants Dec. 27 and their playoff hopes could be on the line when the New Orleans Saints pay them a visit Jan.
New England Patriots
(Win total: 11.5, Super Bowl odds: +400)
The return of quarterback Tom Brady bolsters the Patriots to the Super Bowl favorite at +400. But they will need to play at a championship caliber to eclipse the 11.5 season win total posted by oddsmakers.
The good news for New England backers is that the club benefits from having most of its formidable opponents coming to Gillette Stadium. The Patriots host the Atlanta Falcons Sept. 27 and the Baltimore Ravens Oct. 4. And down the stretch they host the Carolina Panthers Dec. 13 and Jacksonville Jaguars Dec. 27. A trip to conference rival Indianapolis looms Nov. 15.
Atlanta Falcons
(Win total: 8.5, Super Bowl odds: +1700)
The rookie coach-quarterback combination of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan worked for the Falcons last season. They will be hard-pressed to avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx.
Atlanta will greet Miami Sept. 13 and Carolina Sept. 20 before embarking on a wicked road stretch. The Falcons visit New England Sept. 27 and face Carolina and the New York Giants on back-to-back road trips in November.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Win total: 6.5, Super Bowl odds: +4800)
First-year coach Raheem Morris takes over a team that is in rebuilding mode after former coach Jon Gruden was fired and much of the roster was re-shaped. Getting Tampa Bay backers the cash with seven wins might be asking a lot of the rookie coach.
Tampa Bay’s schedule is littered with strong opponents and includes road trips to Philadelphia, Carolina and New Orleans. Home games against the Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots also are on the ledger.