Total Talk - Week 1
By Chris David
The 2009 NFL season is in full swing and sometimes gamblers often invest too much time in picking sides, where the easier to path to profitability is with totals.
“The sportsbooks approach totals with extreme caution as they know that sharp players can make a living off bad numbers if they do their homework. Over the past decade I can attest to that fact that over-under wagering limits in the major Vegas casinos have decreased, a few by a factor of 60 to 75%. The house is all about booking action that is profitable and tries to steer clear of uncertainty, the major reason why totals are restricted in terms of betting limits,” said VegasInsider.com NFL expert Paul Bovi.
If you go to any shop, you’ll more than likely see the house limit on sides at $10,000 or more while the limit on totals is $5,000 or less. Still, the public tends to shy away from ‘over-under’ wagers and when they do press, the bookmakers are ready.
Sportsbook Manager of betEd.com Randy Scott talked about tendencies in the NFL that have become commonplace with totals. “The betting public always associates teams with a certain style, which lead to either the ‘over’ or ‘under’. The ‘over’ in any Colts game is always going to garner action just because of Peyton Manning. A couple other public perception totals with teams are the Saints-Over, Ravens-Under and Titans-Under,” said Scott.
On Thursday, Pittsburgh edged Tennessee 13-10 in overtime and the combined 23 points fell ‘under’ the closing number of 35. Gamblers shouldn’t be surprised to see the Week 1 opener go ‘under’ and that’s been a trend that a lot of total players lean toward.
In 2008, the ‘under’ went 9-7 in Week 1. Prior to last season, the two previous years watched the ‘under’ produced a 22-9 (71%) ledger pushing the overall numbers on the ‘under’ to 31-16 (66%) for the last three years.
Will the trend continue?
Let’s take a closer look at some key points on this week's opening card…
New Coaches
Tony Sparano, Mike Smith, John Harbaugh and Jim Zorn made their head coaching debuts in 2008 and they all had successful seasons, with three of the four making the playoffs. Most would expect a conservative approach by any newbie on the sideline and it certainly was that way in Week 1 last season. A lot of focus was on controlling the ball and defense, which resulted in a 3-1 ‘under’ record. Will that trend continue this year?
Eleven new coaches take the field, including seven with no experience at all.
Kansas City at Baltimore (36): Todd Haley was known as an offensive wiz in Arizona and he will be calling the plays on Sunday. Who will be running the offense is still up in the air. Matt Cassel has been tabbed ‘questionable’ against the Ravens. Our friends at betEd.com have reported the ‘under’ in this game is the most popular total wagered on this Sunday.
Denver at Cincinnati (43): The Broncos begin the Josh McDaniels era on Sunday and he too has situations behind center. While Kyle Orton is expected to start, McDaniels biggest issue in the Mile High City is improving a defense that gave up 28 PPG last year.
N.Y. Jets at Houston (44.5): This number has quietly been creeping up from 43 and that might be a little surprising considering the Jets’ Rex Ryan is known for his defense. With a rookie QB (see below) starting, points could be spare in Texas.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (44.5): Jim Caldwell takes over the Colts and most believe the offense could be better under him. Unfortunately, the defense might drop off especially without safety Bob Sanders in the mix.
Detroit at New Orleans (48.5): The Lions hired Tennessee d-coordinator Jim Schwartz in the offseason and his skills will be tested right out of the gate. Detroit gave up 32.3 PPG last year, while the Saints averaged 28.9 PPG. Will it be easy for rookie Matthew Stafford in the Big Easy?
Dallas at Tampa Bay (39): Raheem Morris recently got rid of his offensive coordinator and will most likely be criticized if the attack stalls. The Bucs do have a nice stable of running backs to ground and pound any opponent. Can the defense step up? The Cowboys’ offense has weapons but the number on this game seems low for a reason.
St. Louis at Seattle (41.5): Steve Spagnuolo has a lot of work to do with the Rams this year and it doesn’t help when your starting QB is banged up. The former Giants defensive coordinator saw success in New York with defense and running the football. Most would expect a similar parallel here. (Nice trend on this series below)
Welcome to the NFL rookies!
The Jets’ Mark Sanchez and Lions’ Matthew Stafford will get tossed right into the mix this weekend and fortunately for the duo, the opponents they’ll be facing aren’t mentioned in the same sentence with defense.
Sanchez and New York will head to the Lone Star State for an opening battle against Houston, who is known to light up the scoreboard. VI NFL expert Paul Bovi doesn’t have much confidence in the former USC signal caller. “His performance in the preseason could hardly be considered stellar, especially when you factor in that he was for the most part facing second string defenses. The Texans figure to do a lot of blitzing, and rest assured that DE Mario Williams is licking his chops right in anticipation of turning up the heat. Much of Sanchez's fate will rest on the success of the Jets' running game as the pressure will be ramped up in obvious passing situations. I would be shocked if he gets through the game without making at least one or errors,” added Bovi.
The Texans started the season on a 9-1 ‘over’ run, which included a 4-1 mark at Reliant Stadium. The ‘under’ went 5-1 in the final six games but that was well after the books adjusted. The total opened at 43 and don’t be surprised to see a closing number of 45.
New Orleans lit up Detroit 42-7 last year at Ford Field in wire-to-wire fashion. The combined 49 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 51 points and those who bet the ‘over’ got burned, including me. The Saints scored on seven of their eight possessions and they fumbled deep in Lions’ territory on the other drive. The Lions’ offense managed just seven points behind the duo of Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton. The ‘over/under’ of 49 is the highest on board and doable, depending on how well Stafford plays.
Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco made their debuts last year and both led the Falcons and Ravens to victories respectively. The pair was both held in check as far as production and it was evident that Atlanta and Baltimore were trying to run the football. The total went 1-1 in their openers.
Quick Divisional Trends to Watch
-- The last five meetings between San Francisco and Arizona have easily gone ‘over’ the total.
-- The Giants-Redskins have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 in the last four.
-- The Rams and Seahawks series has been up and down over the last few years. The ‘over/under’ has alternated with sweeps in the last three years. In 2006, the ‘over’ went 2-0. In 2007, the ‘under’ rallied for a 2-0 mark. And last season, the ‘over’ bounced back with a 2-0 spot. Time for the ‘under’ run again?
-- San Diego and Oakland have seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in the previous three meetings.
-- Similar to St. Louis and Seattle, the Buffalo-New England series has had the same pattern but this year’s pair of games would be expected to go ‘over’ since the ‘under’ went 2-0 in 2008.
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