Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David
Week 14 Recap
Bookmakers were smiling last weekend as the betting public was creamed with their total plays, as the ‘under’ posted a 13-3 mark. This time of the year, most gamblers factor weather into their handicapping but none of the games last week were affected by the conditions at all. Only four of the 32 teams that lined up last week posted 30-plus points, while seven teams were held to 10 points or less. Good defense or poor offense? After 14 weeks of action, the ‘under’ 103-99 (51%) has taken a slight edge on the season.
Pack it up!
With only 12 playoff spots available and just three weeks of action left, it’s safe to say that the season has already ended for at least a third of the league. The following teams - Houston (6-7), Green Bay (5-8), San Diego (5-8), Cleveland (4-9), Jacksonville (4-9), Oakland (3-10), Kansas City (2-11), Seattle (2-11), St. Louis (2-11), Cincinnati (1-11-1), Detroit (0-13) - have been eliminated from the postseason or need to win out and get some serious help to get a sniff.
How do these teams fare down the stretch? Do they give up and play out the string, perhaps rebuild and try to earn a fat contract for next season? Is the coach they’re playing for on his way out? Do they need to impress ownership?
Handicappers often pass when a pair of these clubs meet, since it’s like picking poison between the two. How about betting the total?
“If you look at all of the bad teams in the league, the majority of them stink because they can’t defend anybody,” said VI handicapper Matt Moore.
“I always go by the notion that an average offense can score on a bad defense more often than not, but there are a lot of teams in the NFL this year that just can’t move the football, which is more important than scoring in my opinion.”
Cincinnati is ranked dead last in scoring with 11.8 points per game and it hasn’t scored a touchdown in over 11 quarters. Followed by the Bengals are the Rams (13 PPG) and Raiders (13.8 PPG).
Moore added, “I look for three factors when ‘capping a total – first downs, 3rd down percentage and penalties. If you’re good in two of the three, you can usually post points on the board. If you’re bad, then you’re a pathetic offense.”
“Point in case is Oakland, who is ranked dead last in first downs (13.2), 3rd down percentage (24.7%) and has been penalized a league-high 96 times.”
Since the Raiders’ defense isn’t that great, gamblers might want to take a look at their team total ‘under.’
In Week 15, there are three matchups with teams that are all but done this year:
San Diego at Kansas City (45.5)
Green Bay at Jacksonville (45.5)
Seattle at St. Louis (43)
Which is Worse?
Washington Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense: The Redskins are one of three teams (Bengals, Lions) that haven’t been able to eclipse the 30-point plateau this year. Head coach Jim Zorn and company are looking for an identity and they might have a shot to find it on Sunday against Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals are allowing 26.5 PPG this year, but more importantly the team has only recorded 13 sacks. Most would expect QB Jason Campbell to exploit the pass defense but after the drama in D.C. this past week, you could see a large dose of Clinton Portis in the Queen City. The total on this game is 36 ½ points and if you’re looking at an ‘over’, perhaps the Washington team total ‘over’ is a better wager since the Bengals have posted six points in the last two weeks.
Green Bay Defense vs. Jacksonville Offense: The Packers have given up 51, 35 and 24 points in their last three games. The Jaguars have scored 14, 12, 17 and 10 in their last four losses. Can Green Bay hold Jacksonville in check or are we looking at another shootout in the Sunshine State? The Jags will be without wide receiver Matt Jones (suspension) and Fred Taylor (thumb) for Sunday. Oddsmakers opened up this week’s total at 45, which is the highest number for a game at Alltel Stadium this year. The Packers’ offense is averaging 28 PPG on the road this year, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-2.
Bills’ Offense vs. Jets’ Defense: After posting 54 points against Kansas City on Nov. 23, the Bills have put up six points in the last two games. The offense posted 163 yards of offense in a 16-3 loss to Miami last week and QB J.P. Losman looked lost in the setback. The Bills lost to the Jets 26-17 on Nov. 2 and now have a chance to avenge that defeat on Sunday. Buffalo’s attack might have a fighting chance, considering the Jets’ defense has given up 58 points in their last two games. Two of the last three meetings in this series have gone ‘under’ the total. Will the Jets get back on track at home or can Buffalo finally bust out? Weather reports appear to be clear as of Friday. The total is hovering between 41 and 42 on this divisional battle.
Strong Trends
Tennessee at Houston: The ‘over’ is 7-1 in the last eight battles, including five straight winning tickets. Earlier this year, Tennessee blasted Houston 31-12 and gamblers who played the ‘over’ benefited with a 99-yard pick-six to the house late in the game.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Even though the Steelers and Ravens both possess nasty defensive units, the ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run. In the first meeting this season, Pittsburgh edged Baltimore 23-20 in overtime from Heinz Field.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home this year, and the two games that did go ‘under’ just missed too. Tampa Bay has played two games (New Orleans, Detroit) indoors this year and both went ‘over’ the number. Keep in mind that QB Jeff Garcia is a game-time decision for the Buccaneers on Sunday.
San Diego at Kansas City: Six of the last eight and three of the previous four battles in this series have gone ‘under’ the number. After starting the season on a 4-0 ‘over’ run, the Chargers have seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 in their last nine games.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Three of the last four games have gone ‘over’ the total, including the Giants 35-14 victory on Nov. 2 against Dallas. The total in that matchup was 41 ½ and now the number has jumped up to 44 ½.
Monday Night Football
Last week, the Panthers led the Buccaneers 10-3 at halftime and it appeared that Monday’s NFC South showdown was looking like an ‘under’ play. Sure enough, Carolina outscored Tampa Bay 28-20 in the final 30 minutes en route to a 38-23 victory. The combined 61 points easily eclipsed the closing number of 40 points, improving the MNF ‘over’ record to 13-2 on the season.
Philadelphia hosts Cleveland in Week 15 and the oddsmakers have listed the ‘over/under’ at 38 ½ points. The Eagles defense looked sharp last week against the Giants, and they now face a less than stellar Browns attack led by third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey. Cleveland has scored 6, 6 and 9 points in its last three games. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in six games played Lincoln Financial Field this season.
A lot of sportsbooks are probably happy that there are only two MNF matchups left, including this one. In Week 16, Green Bay and Chicago go head-to-head in what most would expect to be a NFC North slugfest.
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