Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David
Week 15 Recap
Chicago and New Orleans kicked off last week’s action with a 27-24 overtime victory by the Bears. The combined 51 points jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 44. Despite Thursday’s shootout, the ‘under’ went 8-7-1 over the 16-game card. After 15 weeks of action, the ‘under’ has a slight 111-106-1 (51%) edge on the season.
Over to Under
Houston saw the ‘over’ start the season on a 9-1 run, largely due to the unit’s inept defense. Over the first 10 games, the defense surrendered 28.7 points per game. The Texans’ offense wasn’t too shabby either, posting 23 PPG. Since the hot run, the oddsmakers adjusted quickly and started hanging 50-point totals but those numbers have slowly simmered.
In the last four weeks, the Texans have given up 6, 17, 21 and 12 points. The offense has maintained a decent pace of 20.1 PPG, but the ‘under’ has still gone 4-0 over this period and it could be 5-0 after this Sunday. Houston travels to Oakland, who has been inconsistent all year offensively. Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, so you could see a loose game plan on tap.
The ‘over/under’ is sitting at 44 points, which is the highest total for the Raiders since they played New Orleans on Oct. 12. The Saints won that decision 34-3 and the combined 37 points never came close to the closing number of 47½.
Traveling East
San Diego makes its fourth and final trip to the East Coast and that hasn’t been a good thing for head coach Norv Turner and his troops, especially on offense. The Chargers once prolific attack has been stifled when traveling toward the Atlantic Ocean. The unit has put up 10, 14 and 10 points in the previous games played and they even struggled last week against Kansas City. The Bolts had three points at halftime against the Chiefs, but scored 12 points in the final 1:13 of the game, luckily too.
This is a must-win spot for the Chargers, who still have an outside shot to make the playoffs. Tampa Bay is also in desperation mode, especially after dropping back-to-back divisional games. The Buccaneers still control their own playoff destiny but that could be tough considering quarterback Jeff Garcia (leg) is banged up. Even without Garcia, the Bucs’ success comes from its defense and it’s been great at home. Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 12.7 PPG at Raymond James Stadium this year, which has helped the ‘under’ go 5-1.
The total for this non-conference showdown is set at 42½ points.
Round Two – If you dare!
Oddsmakers opened the total on the battle of Ohio between the Bengals and Browns at 35. The number has already dropped down to 33 and even 32 ½ points at some outfits. Hard to argue against a low-scoring affair, considering how bad Cleveland and Cincinnati have been this year.
In the first meeting of the regular season, the Browns defeated the Bengals 20-12 and the combined 32 points never threatened the closing total of 42 points. What’s even more eye opening is that the two teams put up 23 of the 32 points in the fourth quarter.
A lot has changed since that matchup, and not for the better either. The Bengals started QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in place of Carson Palmer in the first loss and he’s been the starter ever since. Fitzpatrick hasn’t had much to work with but he shouldn’t be playing in the NFL at least not as a starter.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns will go their third-stringer Ken Dorsey for the remainder of the season and that hasn’t been a good thing either. The Browns have failed to score an offensive touchdown in four straight games, and the team has been held to a combined 12 points in their last two home tilts.
This total (32.5) is the lowest ‘over/under’ posted in the previous 20 meetings between the two Ohio squads. Weather reports out of Cleveland have temperatures in the low thirties, with a 60 percent chance of snowshowers and wind gusts up to 25 miles per hour.
Strong Trends
Arizona has watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 in its three battles against AFC East teams this year. The Cardinals have been outscored 114-85 in the three games. On Sunday, they head to New England. Keep an eye on the weather report for this battle.
The Dolphins own a 3-0 straight up mark against the AFC West this year, and the ‘under’ has cashed in all three games. The defense has been the main reason, holding the Chargers (10), Broncos (17) and Raiders (15) all to 17 points or less. Miami chances of busting this trend will happen this week at Kansas City.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been great this year but the unit hasn’t been solid against AFC South. The Texans (17), Jaguars (21) and Colts (24) were all able to put up points on a defense that is only giving up 13.7 PPG this year. Can the Titans keep the trend rolling? We’ll find out Sunday.
Washington has watched the ‘under’ go 11-2-1 this year, which includes a 6-1 mark at home. The Redskins continue to be one of three teams (Bengals, Lions) that haven’t surpassed the 30-point plateau this year. The Eagles invaded FedEx Field this weekend and seven of the last nine games have gone ‘under’ the total.
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