Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David
Week 1 Recap
The first 16 games have concluded and the sportsbooks were happy to see Week 1 end with a pair of underdogs cashing tickets on Monday Night Football, but the two ‘over’ winners didn’t sit well with some bookmakers, including Randy Scott from betEd.com. He explained, “The return of Tom Brady to the Pats coupled with the MNF audience led to a very big disparity on the ‘over’ and it was definitely the biggest total loss of the week.”
Buffalo led New England 14-10 at the break, so the ‘over’ was on pace but a three-point third quarter had ‘under’ players lining up at the counter. To make a long story short, the Bills led 24-13 with about five minutes to play and ‘over’ players need 11 points to cash the closing total of 47 points. Brady and company did one better and scored 12 to close the game for a 25-24 victory. Gamblers pressing the ‘over’ last Monday were handed another gift as the Chargers and Raiders combined for 24 points in the fourth quarter to help go ‘over’ the total by a half-point.
Despite the two games going ‘over’ on MNF, the totals went 8-8 in Week 1 of the NFL season and most of the outcomes were clear cut. The Giants-Redskins was the lone exception, which caught a late Campbell to Cooley touchdown that helped the game go ‘over’ the number.
Divisional Battles
It’s still early in the year and most pundits believe defenses are ahead of offenses. When you pair that theory with a divisional matchup, most would believe that low-scoring affairs are bound to happen.
In Week 1, six games featured divisional opponents squaring off and the totals went 3-3. However, the three contests that went ‘over’ were just mentioned in last week’s recap (NE/BUF, OAK/SD, NYG/WAS) and all three had opportunities to cash the other way. Was that a coincidence or something to look for going forward?
Scott and his crew at betEd.com believe it was random and hard to gauge going forward. “The only thought I have on trends in the NFL is that they always end, and usually very quickly too. This week's offenses could be ahead of the defenses, but I don't think it will be completely like that - more of a mix in Week 2. The pros always adjust and you’ll see some things change up this weekend.”
Gamblers can press or buck their theories with seven divisional battles in Week 2.
Oakland at Kansas City (38.5): The Raiders moved the ball against the Chargers on the ground in their MNF loss, but JaMarcus Russell (40%) is still a tough QB to watch. The Chiefs’ defense gave up 502 yards to the Ravens last week, which is ridiculous in the NFL. If Matt Cassel goes for KC, this one might have a shot to go ‘over.’ Seven of the last eight in this series have gone ‘under’ the total.
Houston at Tennessee (40.5): The Texans’ offense (183 yards) looked like garbage against the Jets last week and it’s arguable that the Titans unit is a tougher test, especially on the road. However, Tennessee did leave some points off the board against Pitt in Week 1 and the team has had more time to prepare. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings.
New England at N.Y. Jets (45.5): Even though the Patriots scored 12 points in the final three minutes against Buffalo last week, the offense (441 yards) moved the ball up and down the field. The NE defense continues to lose players and the Jets’ offense quietly rung up 462 yards last week. The total has split the last three regular seasons so the play might be pass and then do the opposite when they meet again on Nov. 22.
Minnesota at Detroit (46.5): The Lions allowed 515 yards to the Saints last week and now face a Vikings offense that has potential to explode, especially on the ground. Detroit put up 27 last week, but seven came off a defensive touchdown and the offense (231 yards) wasn’t sharp behind Stafford, who managed to only convert 3-of-14 third down attempts. Both games in 2008 easily went ‘under’ the number.
Carolina at Atlanta (43): The Panthers allowed 38 to the Eagles last Sunday but technically the defense only really gave up seven points when you look at the boxscore. You can’t handicap turnovers and if Carolina coughs it up again, you’ll probably see more points. Atlanta’s defense is tough to read too, considering they were helped with four turnovers against Miami. The total went 1-1 last season.
Seattle at San Francisco (39.5): These two squads saw the ‘over’ go 2-0 in 2008. betEd.com's Scott was impressed with the 49ers’ defense in Week 1. “Holding Arizona to 16 points at home is something to be proud of and their ability to put pressure on Warner was great. Their LB Willis could be the best in the game and should only make this unit one to watch this year.” Seattle was the lone team to post a shutout in Week 1 and the 49ers offense doesn’t seem as dangerous as the Rams, at least on paper.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas (44.5): The previous two encounters in Dallas between the Giants and Cowboys both went ‘under’ the total, yet those finals haven’t deterred oddsmakers from adding a couple points to this matchup. The Cowboys put up 34 last week against the Bucs but 21 came on three big plays. T-Bay put up 450 yards, including 174 rushing which is what the G-Men do best. New York had nine possessions on offense and it scored four times (3 TDs), plus the club was stopped on the Redskins’ goal line too. New York only punted once, which says a lot about how the offense was executing yet not finishing.
Fearless Predictions
I received numerous emails last week from VI users and the majority of them wanted to know what totals I liked the best in the NFL. To save them and you time, I decided to test my handicapping skills and my resources at VI (the experts) and toss you out my best picks and what I’ll be looking at this weekend. Press, Pass or Fade…that’s up to you folks!
Best Under: Philadelphia-New Orleans (46)
Even though the Eagles (38) and Saints (45) lit up the scoreboard last week, I don’t see a duplicate effort on Sunday in Philadelphia. As stated above, the Eagles only had one sound drive against the Panthers, which led to seven points. The rest of the points were handed to them by turnovers. New Orleans did rip up the Lions but who won’t this year? Philadelphia has arguably the best secondary in the league and they match up well against Drew Brees and his aerial attack. Lastly, the Eagles QB situation is up in the air but I expect Andy Reid to baby whoever starts and play a very conservative game. Reid knows that if he can get a win here with a backup, his team will be set up nicely with their upcoming schedule (vs. KC, BYE, vs. TB, @OAK).
Best Over: Pittsburgh-Chicago (37.5)
The Steelers’ defense held the Titans to 10 points in their Week 1 opening win but they were fortunate as Tennessee left some points off the board. Now, Pitt heads to Chicago without its leader (Troy Polamalu) against an offense that has a much better quarterback in Jay Cutler. Granted, the brash signal caller tossed four picks in week but three came in the first half. After nerves set in, he put up three scores on five possessions in the second half. The Bears also lost their best player (Brian Urlacher) on defense, which will hurt a unit that was beat early and often last year. Pittsburgh is known for running the football, yet they seem to have more success throwing it behind Big Ben.
Just for Kicks Teaser
Let’s do a nine-point (+100) teaser with ties losing…
Over Pittsburgh-Chicago 29.5
Under New Orleans-Philadelphia 55
Under Tampa Bay-Buffalo 51
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