Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David
Week 3 Recap
After three weeks of action and 48 games being played, the totals have gone 24-24. The ‘under’ went 9-7 last week after the ‘over’ posted a 9-7 mark in Week 2. Investigating further, it seems like the oddsmakers have been over and underestimating the numbers through the first three weeks. In Week 3, six games closed with a total of 45 points or more. The ‘under’ went 5-1 in those contests. Meanwhile, seven games had a posted number of 40 or less and the ‘over’ cashed in five of them.
With four teams on bye this weekend and two less games on the docket, the numbers have been tempered a bit. Only two out of 14 tilts have a posted total of 45 or more but none are over 46. And five are less than 40, with none lower than 37. According to the VegasInsider.com STATS database, 28.6% of the total points scored in the NFL over the last four years (2005-2008) land between 37 and 45 points. Eight out of 48 or 16% of the games this year have fallen into that range, so you can see why the oddsmakers use the two numbers (37-45) as starting points.
Finding a Pattern
Three weeks isn’t the biggest sample size to define teams as either an ‘over’ or an ‘under’ squad and that’s evidenced in the ATS Rankings. Philadelphia is the only club to see the ‘over’ go 3-0 in all of its games and Denver is the lone squad to see the ‘under’ boast a 3-0 mark. The remaining 30 are either 1-2 or 2-1 in either direction. It might be better suited to wait another three games and the you should be able to identify what teams are accustomed to lighting up the scoreboard and which don’t, and hopefully before the oddsmakers do.
Offense or Defense
It’s known that a good defense will always beat a good offense any day of the week. With that being said, two non-conference games this week pit explosive attacks against solid defensive units. Before we delve into each matchup, gamblers should make a note that the 4:00 (ET) games or what I like to call the “chase” games haven’t helped the public this season. After 12 games, the ‘under’ has produced an 8-4 (67%) record. We mention that because both contests below will played in the second session on Sunday.
N.Y. Jets at New Orleans (45)
New Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan and his brash attitude have taken New York by storm and a large part of his success is dependent on an aggressive defense. The unit is ranked third in total yards (256) and has only given up two touchdowns in three games, both coming in last week’s 24-17 victory over Tennessee. N.Y. will find out how good the defense is this week against New Orleans and its league-best offense (438 YPG, 40 PPG). Quarterback Drew Brees (69.1 %, 841 yards, 9 TDs) is the leader of the attack but did you know the Saints have run (102 rushes) the ball more than they’ve tossed it (97 attempts)?
Ryan has to know his defense won’t be able to stymie New Orleans completely. Rather, he’s going to try to use his offense to keep the defense on the sides, which means run, run and run some more. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has been catching a lot of press in the Big Apple but his 46.6 passer rating is the fourth lowest in the league. For those that believe New Orleans is an offensive-only squad, think again. The Saints’ defense has surrendered five touchdowns in three games, plus the group has been great on third downs (27.3%). The ‘over’ has gone 7-1-1 in the last nine games at the Superdome.
Dallas at Denver (42.5)
The Broncos boast the best defense in the league when it comes to total yards (214) and points (5.3), plus they’re tied for first in the league with 10 sacks. Head coach Josh McDaniel came to the Mile High City with a pedigree as an offensive coordinator with New England. So how is the unit so successful? When you play three teams that are ranked near the bottom of the league in total offense in Cincinnati (24), Cleveland (32) and Oakland (31), you better have the best unit in the league. It’s put up or shut up time on Sunday and even though the Broncos’ confidence is high, the Cowboys’ offense is the only unit that is averaging 190-plus YPG on the ground and through the air. Dallas is averaging 28.7 PPG, which is ranked fifth best in the NFL. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in their three games this year. The Cowboys and Broncos don’t meet annually, but the last five encounters between the two teams have gone ‘over.’
On the Road again!
It doesn’t happen often, not much at all but the Giants and Seahawks are the only two teams in the NFL this year that will have to endure three straight games on the road, with no break either.
New York will be finishing up its trip this Sunday when it visits Arrowhead Stadium for a battle against Kansas City. The Giants have looked sharp so far, spoiling the Cowboys opener 33-31 in Week 2 before dominating Tampa Bay 24-0 last Sunday.
The oddsmakers expect New York to return home unscathed, listing the G-Men as nine-point favorites. While researching this game with my VegasInsider.com colleague Kevin Rogers, he pointed out a solid total trend on teams playing three-straight on the road. It’s more geared toward the playoffs, but situations do arise in the regular season.
The last five seasons, teams playing their third straight road game are 19-8-2 to the ‘over,’ including a perfect 5-0 mark last season.
In the five games last year, three were in the regular season and two in the playoffs:
Reg. Season - Baltimore 10 at N.Y. Giants 30: Over 39
Reg. Season - Houston 27 at Houston 30: Over 43
Reg. Season - Chicago 14 at Minnesota 34: Over 42
Playoffs - Philadelphia 25 at Arizona 32: Over 46.5
Playoffs - Baltimore 14 at Pittsburgh 23: Over 36
In case you’re wondering, we mentioned Seattle above and the final leg of its three-game road trip is on Nov. 29 at St. Louis. No system or trend is 100% guaranteed folks, but little tidbits like this will help your ‘capping down the road.
Monday Night Football
Finally, the bookmakers saw the ‘under’ cash on the primetime finale. The ‘over’ went 13-3-1 on Monday Night Football in 2008 and that carried over through the first three games this year with a perfect 3-0 run. After Dallas stifled Carolina 21-7 in Week 3, the ‘over’ stands at 3-1 under the lights.
In case you haven’t been watching ESPN this week, you should know by know that the MNF crew is heading to Minnesota for a NFC North battle between the Vikings and Packers. In the 2008 Week 1 opener on MNF from Lambeau Field, Green Bay held off Minnesota 24-19 and the combined 43 points slid ‘over’ the closing number of 37 ½. The second regular season meeting also went ‘over’ the total (44.5) as the Vikings edged the Packers 28-27 at home.
The numbers is hovering between 44 and 45 for this week and probably will jump with the public action. The Packers’ offense looked sharp last week in their 36-17 victory against St. Louis by posting seven scores (4 TDs) on 11 meaningful possessions. Minnesota is averaging 29.3 PPG, but the offense is only averaging 317.4 YPG. The Vikings have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1.
Fearless Predictions
After two weeks of tracking, the record stands at 2-2 (-$20) but my teasers (0-2, -$200) just can’t come through at all. Based on one-unit plays, we’re in the hole for $220 but the confidence is high as we approach Week 4. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!
Best Over – Seahawks-Colts (44)
This is a nice spot for Indianapolis to open up the offense (24 PPG, 408 YPG) against a ripe Seattle defense that looks good on paper (16 PPG, 314 YPG) due to its competition (Rams, 49ers, Bears). We’re aware that Seattle will be without QB Matt Hasselbeck, but backup Seneca Wallace is more than capable to move the chains. He did so last week, leading the Seahawks to five scores (4 FGs). And the team missed two chip shots too. The Bears’ defense isn’t great but the Colts’ unit will be without its best two players, Sanders and Freeney, and LB Gary Brackett is ‘questionable’ as well. The ‘over’ looks good but the team total on the Colts (27.5) looks even better. Play both and see you at the cashier!
Best Under – Rams-49ers (37.5)
The Packers moved the football up and down the field on the Rams last week for 36 points and we really don’t see the 49ers duplicating that performance, especially with RB Frank Gore expected to miss. Also ‘out’ for this week is St. Louis QB Marc Bulger, who will be replaced by Kyle Boller. I don’t expect him to get anything going against San Francisco’s defense, which is giving up 66.7 rushing yards per game and only 17.7 PPG. It also helps to know that five of the last six in this head-to-head battle has gone ‘under’ the number and fairly easily too.
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 35 Colts-Seahawks
Under 46.5 Rams-49ers
Over 28 Buccaneers-Redskins
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