Trend Setters - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers
Now that we've hit the second half of the NFL season, more tangible facts are coming to light regarding most of the league. This week, we'll take a look at five games that own plenty of valuable trends, including the AFC showdown in Baltimore between the Ravens and Colts.
Colts (-1, 44) at Ravens
Indianapolis remains one of the two unbeaten teams in the NFL at 9-0, after squeaking by New England last week, 35-34. The Ravens, meanwhile, are still alive in the AFC Wild Card race following their Monday night shutout of the Browns.
The Colts have owned the Ravens recently, winning each of the last six meetings, dating back to 2002. In fact, Indianapolis outscored Baltimore by an average of 14.6 ppg in those six victories, including a 31-3 blowout last season. The Colts have struggled off a close win, going 1-6 ATS on the road since 1998 off a 1-3 point victory. However, over the last six seasons, the Colts are 7-3 to the 'over' coming off a 1-3 point triumph.
The Ravens have fared well under John Harbaugh off a SU win, going 12-5 ATS since the start of last season. Baltimore has burned tickets following a solid defensive effort, compiling a 1-5 ATS mark since 2001 after allowing three points or less in its last game.
Falcons at Giants (-6½, 46)
New York returns from the bye, as the Giants try to snap a four-game skid. Things were rosy for Tom Coughlin's team at 5-0, but the wheels have fallen off the wagon with an 0-4 SU/ATS skid. The Falcons, meanwhile, have dropped four of five games away from the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta is a solid 6-0 ATS the last six on the road off a SU road loss, including a cover at New Orleans three weeks ago. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 9-4 ATS against an opponent off a non-division game.
The Giants were pointspread gold each of the last two seasons, and even through the first five games, but New York has taken a severe nose-dive. The G-Men are just 2-4-1 ATS the last seven games as a home favorite, including the losses to the Cardinals and Chargers.
Browns at Lions (-3½, 38½)
This may be one of the biggest dog games the entire season, possibly passing the St. Louis/Detroit matchup three weeks ago at Ford Field. However, if it's on the board, there's a chance to cash in, even if it's a pair of teams with two combined wins.
The Lions were favored in the Rams game, but St. Louis won that game as a road underdog. Detroit is coming off a 27-10 loss at Minnesota, which actually sets up well for Jim Schwartz's team. The Lions are 8-3 ATS the last 11 games after scoring ten points or less in their previous contest. Detroit has struggled at home against the AFC, going 3-6 ATS the last nine, including an 0-2 ATS mark last season.
Not surprising, but the Browns are in several play-against spots this week. Cleveland is in non-cover mode the week before they take on their Ohio brethren, Cincinnati. The Browns are 1-9 ATS the last five seasons prior to a matchup with the Bengals, including a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 3. Cleveland was shut out Monday against the Ravens, and is 3-7 ATS after a game in which they scored seven points or less.
Redskins at Cowboys (-11, 41½)
Washington picked up only its third victory of the season on Sunday, rallying to beat Denver at home. Dallas stubbed its toe in Green Bay, falling to the Packers, 17-7. The Cowboys still own first place in the NFC East, facing the Redskins for the first time this season.
The Cowboys have been profitable as a home favorite since the end of last season, going 7-2 ATS, including a 3-1 ATS mark in '09. Dallas does own several negative trends, however, in this contest. In Wade Phillips' career, the Cowboys' head coach is 1-9 ATS against division opponents off a SU underdog win. Despite beating the Eagles two weeks ago on Sunday night, Dallas is just 3-9 ATS the last 12 games against NFC East opponents.
The Redskins are 2-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season, which is thankfully better than the 0-4 ATS mark when laying points. Under Jim Zorn, the Redskins are 2-8 ATS against an opponent that scored 15 points or less in their last game.
Cardinals (-9, 47) at Rams
Arizona is slowly pulling away in the NFC West, after finishing off a season sweep of Seattle last Sunday. The Cards sit atop the division at 6-3, while winning all four of their road games. The Rams did pick up a cover this past week in a five-point loss to undefeated New Orleans, but St. Louis is just 1-8 this season.
The Cardinals have capitalized off a SU win under Ken Whisenhunt, going 11-6 ATS the last 17 following a victory. Arizona is also coming off a high-scoring game, which plays into its favor. The Cards are 12-1 ATS dating back to last season off a contest in which 50 or more points were scored.
The Rams may have covered last week, but St. Louis is still a good 'fade' play. The Rams are 4-11 ATS the last 15 at home against divisional opponents, while putting up a 3-8 ATS mark the last 11 games as a home underdog of at least seven points.
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