Trend Setters - Week 2
By Kevin Rogers
The second week of the NFL season involves seven divisional matchups among its 16 games. The public did well in the opening week, but now let's see if more underdogs cash in Week 2. It's time to look at this week's top trends around the NFL, as we present our second installment of "Trend Setters."
Texans at Titans (-6½, 40½) - 1:00 PM EST
These two AFC South rivals each go for their first victory of the season after being held down offensively in their respective openers. The Texans were put in a tough spot last season when they headed to Nashville in Week 3, losing 31-12, as five-point underdogs. Houston had the week off thanks to Hurricane Ike, completely throwing off the Texans routine, and ultimately resulting in an 0-4 start. The Texans are 3-4 ATS lifetime at Tennessee, but 1-5 ATS against the Titans in Gary Kubiak's three seasons as head coach.
In Houston's short franchise history, the second game of the season has been a disastrous one to bet on, with the Texans covering just one of seven times. Houston has lost by an average of 18.6 points a game in this span, with six of those contests coming on the road.
The Titans are just 7-8 ATS since 2005 as a home favorite, but 7-1 ATS the last two Septembers. Something interesting to keep an eye on when handicapping this contest, Tennessee is 12-6 ATS since 2005 with the total listed between 40 and 44, as the total is set at 40 ½.
Patriots (-4, 46) at Jets - 1:00 PM EST
Bill Belichick does not mess around when he prepares to take on the Jets. The Pats are 8-0 ATS and 7-1 SU in Belichick's eight games at the Meadowlands since 2000, including an impressive 6-0 SU/ATS mark as a favorite. What's even more impressive is New England's 13-2 SU/ATS record the last five seasons on the road against division opponents.
The Jets were a home 'dog just once last season (against the Patriots), as New York is 3-6 ATS when getting points at the Meadowlands the last three seasons. The Jets have struggled against their division foes since 2006 at home, going 1-7-1 ATS in this span.
Panthers at Falcons (-6½, 43) - 1:00 PM EST
The top two teams a season ago in the NFC South had completely different showings the opening week. Carolina was rolled by Philadelphia, while Atlanta took care of Miami. The Panthers are known as a good play as an underdog under John Fox, but Carolina was 1-4 ATS last season as a road 'dog of a touchdown or less.
The 'over' has hit in four of the last five meetings at the Georgia Dome, with the Falcons winning 45-28 last season as one-point home favorites.
Atlanta is a dire 3-11 ATS since 2003 in the second of back-to-back home games, while the Falcons own a 7-14 ATS mark since 2004 coming off a double-digit victory.
Steelers (-3, 38) at Bears - 4:15 PM EST
The Steelers and Bears each come into this game without their top defense players, as Troy Polamalu and Brian Urlacher will be out with injuries, respectively. Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS since 2004 prior to a road division game, as the Steelers travel to Cincinnati next week.
The Steelers have not been a solid play when laying 3 ½ points or less over the last three seasons, going 3-11 ATS in that role, including an 0-3 ATS mark last season.
Lovie Smith's team has rebounded nicely following an ATS loss the last two seasons, going 9-4 ATS after a game in which the Bears did not cover. Despite the small sample size, the Bears are 4-1 ATS under Smith as a home 'dog off a SU loss.
Ravens at Chargers (-3, 40½) - 4:15 PM EST
John Harbaugh cashed plenty of times as a road 'dog in his first season with Baltimore, going 6-3 ATS in 2008. The Ravens were a sharp road play coming off a home win as well, compiling a 6-0 ATS record, while winning five of six straight-up.
The Chargers rallied past the Raiders, 24-20 on Monday night, but aren't in a prime betting spot this week. Home teams are 2-7 ATS the last two seasons off a Monday night road victory. However, the Bolts are 4-0 ATS since 2005 after playing on Monday night.
The 'over' has turned into a profitable play under Norv Turner when the total is listed between 40 and 43. The Chargers are 9-3 to the 'over' in that total range, including the 'over' in the Monday win at Oakland.
VegasInsider.com