Trend Setters - Week 6
By Kevin Rogers
Less than half of the games on the Week 6 NFL card involve divisional matchups, as four teams are on the bye. We'll focus on three divisional games, as well as the non-conference showdown in Minneapolis, and the winless Titans traveling to New England.
Ravens at Vikings (-2½, 43½) - 1:00 PM EST
Minnesota sits as one of the five unbeaten teams left in the league after their destruction of the 0-5 Rams. The Ravens, meanwhile, have quickly fallen back to earth following consecutive losses to the Patriots and Bengals. There could be an argument made that Baltimore had excellent opportunities to win each game, but the fact is the first three weeks of the season will be wasted if the Ravens lose to the Vikings.
Despite the loss at New England, the Ravens are 7-4 ATS as a road underdog under John Harbaugh. Baltimore has played low-scoring games on the road against the NFC over the years, finishing 'under' the total in six of the last nine.
The Vikings play well at home against division opponents, but when Minnesota faces teams from outside the NFC North, this team struggles to cover the number. Under Brad Childress, the Vikings are 6-10 ATS at home against non-divisional opponents, including a non-cover against the 49ers in Week 3.
Browns at Steelers (-14, 38) - 1:00 PM EST
The Browns were not pretty last week, but Cleveland still picked up its first victory of the season, knocking off Buffalo, 6-3. Derek Anderson did complete only two passes in the win, but at least the Browns are not winless anymore, and they have covered two straight games.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has won two straight after downing Detroit, 28-20. The Steelers are 9-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin as a favorite of at least a touchdown, with the only qualifying game this season coming against the Lions (a point-spread loss).
Eric Mangini is 8-3 ATS in his coaching career against division opponents on the road, as the Browns were blown out at Baltimore back in Week 3. Cleveland is a money-burner when receiving double-digits, going 3-6 ATS its last nine as an underdog of at least 10 points.
Cardinals at Seahawks (-3, 47) - 4:05 PM EST
Seattle rebounded nicely from three straight losses by blowing out Jacksonville last week, 41-0. Meanwhile, Arizona staved off a late rally from Houston, 28-21, to improve to 2-2.
The Cardinals have fared well against the NFC West, compiling a 6-2 ATS mark the last eight against division opponents. Arizona has also been strong on the road off a home win, going 6-3 ATS the last nine, including a 5-2 ATS record as a 'dog.
The Seahawks are a solid 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 as home 'chalk,' but the next trend is very scary. Coming off the shutout of Jacksonville, Seattle is 1-11 ATS since 2002 off a home win of at least 21 points.
Titans at Patriots (-9, 43½) - 4:15 PM EST
New England has been excellent coming off a straight-up loss, putting up a 17-3 ATS mark in this spot since 2003. Also, Bill Belichick is nearly automatic in his career as a favorite against an opponent off a SU division loss, going 14-1 ATS.
Tennessee is coming off the embarrassing loss to Indianapolis last Sunday night, falling to 0-5. The Titans are on the bye next week, as Jeff Fisher's club is 6-1 ATS the last seven seasons prior to the bye. Tennessee has also performed well on the road off a home loss, going 6-2 ATS the last eight in that situation.
Bills at Jets (-10, 38) - 4:15 PM EST
New York looks to rebound after dropping its second game, 31-27 at Miami on Monday night. All of the sudden, the Jets have lost two in a row following a 3-0 start. The Bills, meanwhile, have been absent offensively the last three games, scoring 20 points in three losses.
This series has been dominated by the underdog in years' past, with the 'dog putting together a 9-1 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bills have been the right side at the Meadowlands in this span, going 4-1 ATS, including a cover in a SU loss last season.
The Jets haven't fared well after playing the Dolphins, compiling a 2-8 ATS mark the last 10 following a contest against Miami. New York, though, never has excuses following a short week, going 12-3 ATS after a Monday Night game since 1991.
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