Trend Setters - Week 9
By Kevin Rogers
We've hit the halfway point of the NFL season, as things are starting to shake out in the playoff picture. There are basically 18 teams fighting for 12 postseason positions right now, even though this can change at any given time. The Week 9 card involves five games that own plenty of solid trends to keep an eye on.
Dolphins at Patriots (-10½, 47)
Miami scored touchdowns the hard way last week at New York, tallying a pair of Ted Ginn, Jr. kickoff returns for scores in a 30-25 victory. The Dolphins amassed a shade over 100 yards of offense against the Jets, but did improve to 3-4 with the win. Miami looks to beat New England for the second time in two years at Gillette Stadium after the Dolphins pulled out the "Wildcat" offense in a 38-13 blowout.
The Patriots are off the bye following the drilling in London over the hapless Bucs. New England has not been profitable in this spot, compiling a 1-8 ATS mark as a double-digit home favorite dating back to 2007. Also, the Pats are 6-8 ATS their last 14 off a pointspread cover.
The Dolphins are a perfect 5-0 ATS under Tony Sparano on the road off a SU win, while going 6-1 ATS the last seven as a double-digit road underdog. Miami owns a solid 5-1-1 ATS mark the last seven on the road against division opponents, including a pair of covers the previous two trips to Foxboro.
Packers (-10, 43½) at Bucs
Tampa Bay remains the lone winless team in the league after getting crushed against New England two weeks ago. The Packers look to rebound following their second loss to old friend Brett Favre and the Vikings.
Since 1986, road teams facing squads owning an 0-7 record have not fared well against the number. Green Bay is in this situation, as these teams are just 2-10-1 ATS. However, the Packers are 6-2 ATS under Mike McCarthy as road favorites, including a 2-0 mark this season.
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS its last five as a home underdog, and 0-7 ATS its last seven home contests. Both these teams own strong ATS marks following the bye, with Green Bay going 5-0 ATS and Tampa Bay putting up a 4-1 ATS ledger the last five.
Chiefs at Jaguars (-6½, 42)
Two of the more disappointing teams in the AFC hook up in Jacksonville on Sunday, as the Jags come into this contest at 3-4. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are off the bye, as Kansas City will be without RB Larry Johnson, who was suspended by the team.
Jacksonville has been a horrible home favorite, covering just one of their last eight when laying points at home. Also, the Jags have burned money when coming off a division loss, going 4-9 ATS the last 13 in this spot.
The Chiefs are 1-2 ATS this season as a road underdog, but own a 12-7 ATS mark the last 19 when getting points away from Arrowhead. Kansas City has struggled after low-scoring affairs, putting together a 1-7 ATS record following a game in which the Chiefs scored ten points or less.
Chargers at Giants (-5, 47½)
The Giants have hit a bump in the road following a 5-0 start, dropping three straight. New York returns home to host a San Diego club that has won two in a row, while sitting two games behind the Broncos in the AFC West.
Tom Coughlin's squad is 7-4 ATS at home against AFC opponents, while compiling an 8-4 ATS mark off a SU loss. However, the G-Men have failed to cover their last two games following a loss.
The Chargers did not cover last week against the Raiders as 17-point home favorites, but still picked up the win. San Diego is 7-4 ATS and 8-3 SU the last 11 games following a division victory. Similarly to the Giants, the Bolts have put together a 7-4 ATS record their last 11 on the road against NFC opponents.
Cowboys at Eagles (-3, 47½)
Dallas and Philadelphia have made strides inside the NFC East after New York's sudden tumble, making the division race pretty interesting. The Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak, even though four of Dallas' five victories have come against below .500 competition.
The Eagles blew out the Giants last week, as Philadelphia goes for its third straight division win. There are two contradicting trends here with Andy Reid's team laying points at home. The Eagles are 8-2 ATS the last ten as a home favorite since the start of 2008. However, Philadelphia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven as home 'chalk' against division opponents.
The Cowboys own several negative trends heading into this division showdown. Dallas is just 2-10 ATS the last 12 in November as a road 'dog against an opponent off a SU win. Also, Wade Phillips is 1-9 ATS in his coaching career against a division opponent coming off a SU 'dog victory.
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