NEW ORLEANS (14 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (9 - 8) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 144-108 ATS (+25.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 62-38 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON (11 - 6) at BALTIMORE (12 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS (10 - 7) at GREEN BAY (15 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
NY Giants are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
NEW ORLEANS at SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ORLEANS: 12-3 ATS as favorite
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-6 ATS off division win
DENVER at NEW ENGLAND
DENVER: 5-1 ATS in New England
NEW ENGLAND: 25-8 Over in all games
HOUSTON at BALTIMORE
HOUSTON: 7-18 ATS Away off home win
BALTIMORE: 55-36 ATS as home favorite
NY GIANTS at GREEN BAY
NY GIANTS: 6-0 Over off 3+ wins
GREEN BAY: 7-1 Over in home games
IT's kinda funny that Saints are the favorite here ! I see them bowing out right here ! I have 49ers defense way over saints defense most likely a 3 point win for 49ers
Saints have a lot of injuries coming in also RB's down to backups O line shuffeld around Defense just gets burnt too much ! THEY had trouble at home with a young inexperienced Lions team for 3 quaters they had trouble getting a lead and the saints on the road just ain't that good especially on natural turf !
predict final score 49ers 28 Saints 24
NFL Trends & Angles
It was a nice first weekend of the NFL Playoffs for our Trends & Angles, as the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos fit a couple of angles nicely and the only angle we had for the Falcons vs. Giants game correctly called the Giants. Our only miss was that we had one angle on the Detroit Lions and none on the Saints.
This week, we kick things off with some repeating angles from last week that turn up again this weekend, and we than have some nice new angles mostly set up by last week's results.
Play against playoff favorites that have won at last eight straight games straight up (19-7, 73.1% ATS since 1985): This is a contrarian playoff trend that looks to exploit overvalued teams that the public loves to bet on, and this is even more prevalent in the playoffs with so much money being bet and with novices that have not placed bets all year coming out of the woodwork. This is the angle that lost with the Lions over the Saints last week and there are two qualifying plays this weekend with one of them being the San Francisco 49ers +3½, again fading those Saints. The other qualifier is the Denver Broncos +13½ over the red-hot Patriots.
Play against any playoff home team that lost its last game against the spread (26-14, 65.0% ATS since 2002): Way back in the day before there was internet, there used to be a popular playoff system that said to play on a team that failed to cover its last game, with the theory being that the team would be undervalued following a ATS loss yet was obviously still a good team since these are the playoffs after all. As so oftentimes happens with systems like that though, the public gets wind of it and all of a sudden, the contrarians become the mainstream. Nowadays, if a playoff team loses its last game ATS, it can be taken at face value as a sign that the team may be vulnerable, especially at home where it is usually asked to give more points (or it gets fewer points as an underdog). There is one qualifying play this week and it clashes with our first angle, as this trend says to take New Orleans -3½ at San Francisco, which failed to cover its season finale vs. the Rams.
Play against any playoff road underdog that covered the spread by more than 10 points in its last game (55-35-2, 61.1% ATS since 1985): This is another angle that looks to take advantage of overvalued teams, and the fact that these teams are still road underdogs after big wins suggest that they may be a tad overconfident also. This angle won its play in the wild card round when the Giants romped past Atlanta, and despite there being only four playoff games this week, this angle has three qualifiers: New England -13½, Baltimore -7½ and Green Bay -7½, as all three of those favorites are hosting dogs that covered easily last week.
Play against any playoff team that scored at least 40 points in its previous playoffs game (18-3, 85.7% ATS since 1996): And the pursuit of overvalued teams continues! There are some people that watch the NFL playoffs that had not watched much football all year, so when they see a team score at least 40 points, there is a natural overreaction to play these teams the following week with both fists regardless of the price. Yes it takes some courage to fade hot offenses in the playoffs, but hey, 18-3 is 18-3. The play this week is the 49ers +3½ over those scorching hot Saints.
Play against any playoff road underdog coming off of an upset win (50-31-1, 61.7% ATS since 1985): Teams that pull off playoff upsets usually spend a lot of energy and emotion when accomplishing that feat, and these teams more often than not do not play with the same energy level the following week, especially when cast as dogs again and needing to go on the road. There is one qualifier this week and it is New England -13½ over Tim Tebow and the Broncos, who certainly fit this criterion nicely after a very emotional upset of the Steelers.
Play against any playoff road underdog that won its previous playoff game by 20 points or more (26-14-2, 65.0% ATS since 1985): This angle nicely combines the factors of teams being overvalued after big wins with them possibly having an emotional letdown in a road underdog role after that big win. There are two qualifying plays this week, and they are two non-conflicting dual qualifiers that go on Sunday, Baltimore -7½ over Houston and Green Bay -7½ over the Giants.