NFL Trends 1/14 - 12/15

NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

NY GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
NY Giants are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home

NEW ORLEANS at SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ORLEANS: 12-3 ATS as favorite
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-6 ATS off division win

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND
DENVER: 5-1 ATS in New England
NEW ENGLAND: 25-8 Over in all games

HOUSTON at BALTIMORE
HOUSTON: 7-18 ATS Away off home win
BALTIMORE: 55-36 ATS as home favorite

NY GIANTS at GREEN BAY
NY GIANTS: 6-0 Over off 3+ wins
GREEN BAY: 7-1 Over in home games

IT's kinda funny that Saints are the favorite here ! I see them bowing out right here ! I have 49ers defense way over saints defense most likely a 3 point win for 49ers

Saints have a lot of injuries coming in also RB's down to backups O line shuffeld around Defense just gets burnt too much ! THEY had trouble at home with a young inexperienced Lions team for 3 quaters they had trouble getting a lead and the saints on the road just ain't that good especially on natural turf !

predict final score 49ers 28 Saints 24

NFL Trends & Angles

It was a nice first weekend of the NFL Playoffs for our Trends & Angles, as the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos fit a couple of angles nicely and the only angle we had for the Falcons vs. Giants game correctly called the Giants. Our only miss was that we had one angle on the Detroit Lions and none on the Saints.

This week, we kick things off with some repeating angles from last week that turn up again this weekend, and we than have some nice new angles mostly set up by last week's results.

Play against playoff favorites that have won at last eight straight games straight up (19-7, 73.1% ATS since 1985): This is a contrarian playoff trend that looks to exploit overvalued teams that the public loves to bet on, and this is even more prevalent in the playoffs with so much money being bet and with novices that have not placed bets all year coming out of the woodwork. This is the angle that lost with the Lions over the Saints last week and there are two qualifying plays this weekend with one of them being the San Francisco 49ers +3½, again fading those Saints. The other qualifier is the Denver Broncos +13½ over the red-hot Patriots.

Play against any playoff home team that lost its last game against the spread (26-14, 65.0% ATS since 2002): Way back in the day before there was internet, there used to be a popular playoff system that said to play on a team that failed to cover its last game, with the theory being that the team would be undervalued following a ATS loss yet was obviously still a good team since these are the playoffs after all. As so oftentimes happens with systems like that though, the public gets wind of it and all of a sudden, the contrarians become the mainstream. Nowadays, if a playoff team loses its last game ATS, it can be taken at face value as a sign that the team may be vulnerable, especially at home where it is usually asked to give more points (or it gets fewer points as an underdog). There is one qualifying play this week and it clashes with our first angle, as this trend says to take New Orleans -3½ at San Francisco, which failed to cover its season finale vs. the Rams.

Play against any playoff road underdog that covered the spread by more than 10 points in its last game (55-35-2, 61.1% ATS since 1985): This is another angle that looks to take advantage of overvalued teams, and the fact that these teams are still road underdogs after big wins suggest that they may be a tad overconfident also. This angle won its play in the wild card round when the Giants romped past Atlanta, and despite there being only four playoff games this week, this angle has three qualifiers: New England -13½, Baltimore -7½ and Green Bay -7½, as all three of those favorites are hosting dogs that covered easily last week.

Play against any playoff team that scored at least 40 points in its previous playoffs game (18-3, 85.7% ATS since 1996): And the pursuit of overvalued teams continues! There are some people that watch the NFL playoffs that had not watched much football all year, so when they see a team score at least 40 points, there is a natural overreaction to play these teams the following week with both fists regardless of the price. Yes it takes some courage to fade hot offenses in the playoffs, but hey, 18-3 is 18-3. The play this week is the 49ers +3½ over those scorching hot Saints.

Play against any playoff road underdog coming off of an upset win (50-31-1, 61.7% ATS since 1985): Teams that pull off playoff upsets usually spend a lot of energy and emotion when accomplishing that feat, and these teams more often than not do not play with the same energy level the following week, especially when cast as dogs again and needing to go on the road. There is one qualifier this week and it is New England -13½ over Tim Tebow and the Broncos, who certainly fit this criterion nicely after a very emotional upset of the Steelers.

Play against any playoff road underdog that won its previous playoff game by 20 points or more (26-14-2, 65.0% ATS since 1985): This angle nicely combines the factors of teams being overvalued after big wins with them possibly having an emotional letdown in a road underdog role after that big win. There are two qualifying plays this week, and they are two non-conflicting dual qualifiers that go on Sunday, Baltimore -7½ over Houston and Green Bay -7½ over the Giants.