NFL Trends to Watch - October
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.
Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.
Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.
Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).
AWAY TEAMS
Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.
Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.
Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).
Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?
Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.
Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.
Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.
The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.
FAVORITES
Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.
Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.
Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.
DOGS
Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.
Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.
Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?
Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.
San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.
The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.
DIVISION
Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.
The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.
Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?
With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.
You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.