BALTIMORE (14 - 6) at DENVER (13 - 4) - 9/5/2013, 8:30 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
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Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at BUFFALO (6 - 10) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-113 ATS (+29.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
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Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TENNESSEE (6 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 91-60 ATS (+25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
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Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (14 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
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Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TAMPA BAY (7 - 9) at NY JETS (6 - 10) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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KANSAS CITY (2 - 14) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 14) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CINCINNATI (10 - 7) at CHICAGO (10 - 6) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MIAMI (7 - 9) at CLEVELAND (5 - 11) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
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Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SEATTLE (12 - 6) at CAROLINA (7 - 9) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
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Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (10 - 7) at DETROIT (4 - 12) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
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Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (4 - 12) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 6) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ARIZONA (5 - 11) at ST LOUIS (7 - 8 - 1) - 9/8/2013, 4:25 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
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Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GREEN BAY (12 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 5 - 1) - 9/8/2013, 4:25 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 151-108 ATS (+32.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
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Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY GIANTS (9 - 7) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/8/2013, 8:30 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
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Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 12) at WASHINGTON (10 - 7) - 9/9/2013, 7:10 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 51-81 ATS (-38.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
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Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (13 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (7 - 9) - 9/9/2013, 10:20 PM
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Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 20-3 ATS (+16.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Baltimore
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TAMPA BAY vs. NY JETS
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
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NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New England
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ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
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MIAMI vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
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CINCINNATI vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
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TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Tennessee
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
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SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Seattle is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
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MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
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KANSAS CITY vs. JACKSONVILLE
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home
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OAKLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
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GREEN BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Green Bay is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games
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ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 10 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
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NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 8 games
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
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PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
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HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO
Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 13 games
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
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NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England
NY Jets are 1-3-1 SU in their last 5 games ,
New England is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New England10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games
2-Minute Handicap
Playbook.com
Thursday, September 5
Baltimore SERIES: 6-2 L8... 5-0 SUATS Game One... 6-3 L9 RD's... 1-5 dogs 7 > pts... 1-4 in Thursday games
DENVER Broncos on 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS run LY before home playoff loss to Ravens... 9-0 O/U vs non-div opp w/OU line pts Game 14 pts
BUFFALO Bills have allowed 40.2 PPG in L6 vs Patriots... 1-7 w/OU line 47 > pts... 1-5 HD's w/rev... 4-1 O/U Game One
Tennessee 4-0 dogs 1st of BB RG's... 8-2 dogs > 4 pts vs opp w/rev... 1-5 O/U Game One
PITTSBURGH 24-16 home w/rev... 1-11 favs before Cincinnati... 3-7 vs non-div LY
Atlanta SERIES: 1-4 L5... 3-0 L3 RD's... 2-8 SU L10 at New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS 12-3 L15 HF's... 15-26 home vs div... 4-1 O/U Game One
Tampa Bay 0-8 non-conf favs of 3 > pts... 1-5-1 Game One... 1-5 SUATS run to end '12
NY JETS SERIES: 7-0 L7... 3-7 SUATS run to end '12
Kansas City SERIES: 3-1 L4... 1-6 SU Game One... 0-4 SUATS run to end '12... only 4th time Chiefs have been made RF since start of 2007 season
JACKSONVILLE 12-2 Game One... 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS run to end '12... 2-5 HD's LY... 6-0-1 O/U vs AFC west
Cincinnati SERIES: 1-5 L6... 7-1 SUATS run before playoff loss at Houston... 14-7-1 vs non-div L2Y... 1-4 SU Game One
CHICAGO 4-1 SU Game One... 0-7-1 before Minnesota... 2-6 ATS run to end '12
Miami 39-24 away vs non-div... 0-5 favs vs AFC North... 1-5-1 Game One... 4-12 SU L16 away
CLEVELAND SERIES: 5-0 L5... 6-3 L9 HD's... 1-13 SU Game One
Seattle 16-5-1 vs non-div L2Y (23-10-1 overall)... 0-7 favs 2 > pts w/OU line 45 > pts... CARROLL: 9-18 SU away
CAROLINA 7-3 L10 dogs... 4-0 SUATS run to end '12... 0-4 SU Game One
Minnesota 13-7-1 dogs L2Y... 4-1 SUATS run to end '12... 7-19 SU away L3Y
DETROIT SERIES: 3-11-2 L16 (1-3 L4H)... 0-8 SU & 1-6-1 ATS run to end '12... 0-7 w/OU line > 47 pts... 3-9 L12 vs div... 5-1 O/U Game One
Oakland 1-9 SU Game One... 1-8 SU & 2-6-1 ATS run to end '12... 2-7-1 vs non-div LY (1-4 away)
INDIANAPOLIS SERIES: 2-5 L7... 7-1 home LY... 10-2 vs non-div Games 1-4... 0-5 Game One
Arizona 5-1 Game One... 4-20 SU away L3Y... Cards averaged just 17.7 PPG on offense L3Y
ST. LOUIS 6-0 vs div LY (11-5 overall)... 5-1 ATS run to end '12... 0-4 L4 HF's... 2-10 SUATS Game One...16-38 favs vs revenge (0-11 L11 vs div)
Green Bay SERIES: 4-1-1 L6... 5-1 Game One... 19-7 L26 as dogs
SAN FRANCISCO 12-5 L17 HF's... HARBAUGH: 5-0 fav < 5 pts / 9-1 vs non-div opp w/rev / 18-5-2 vs all non-div w/rev
Ny Giants SERIES: 4-0 L4A... 9-4 L13 RD's... 31-17 away w/rev... COUGHLIN: 8-0-1 L9 as dog
DALLAS 5-1 Game One... 1-8 vs div in Game 7 pts... 3-16 L19 HF's... 6-22-1 favs L3Y
Monday, September 9
Philadelphia 8-0 RD's > 3 pts w/rev vs conf opp... 4-1 away on Mondays... 31-17 away w/rev...1-5 vs div Game 5 pts... 7-0 SUATS run before home playoff loss to Seattle... SHANAHAN: 14-4 L18 vs div (6-0 LY)
Houston SERIES: 0-4 L4... 16-8-2 favs L2Y (6-3-1 RF's)... 1-4 vs AFC West
SAN DIEGO 6-0 on Mondays... 1-7 w/OU line 46 > pts... 1-4 Game One... 2-6 L8 home
ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.
Thursday, September 5
Baltimore at Denver
Baltimore: 6-1 Over in the first month of the season
Denver: 10-2 ATS as a favorite
Sunday, September 8
New England at Buffalo
New England: 31-16 ATS away with a total of 45.5+ points
Buffalo: 11-3 Over in the first half of the season
Tennesse at Pittsburgh
Tennesse: 4-0 Over vs. AFC North opponents
Pittsburgh: 46-23 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Atlanta at New Orleans
Atlanta: 7-3 Over away with a total of 49.5+ points
New Orleans: 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less
Tampa Bay at NY Jets
Tampa Bay: 7-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
New York Jets: 2-6 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Kansas City at Jacksonville
Kansas City: 27-13 Under in the first two weeks of the season
Jacksonville: 5-11 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Cincinnati at Chicago
Cincinnati: 5-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Chicago: 15-10 Over playing on a grass field
Miami at Cleveland
Miami: 7-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Cleveland: 24-8 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less
Seattle at Carolina
Seattle: 19-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
Carolina: 9-1 Over as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Minnesota at Detroit
Minnesota: 12-6 ATS with a total of 42.5 to 49 points
Detroit: 21-41 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Oakland at Indianapolis
Oakland: 25-11 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
Indianapolis: 8-1 ATS playing in dome stadiums
Arizona at St. Louis
Arizona: 5-1 Under as a road underdog of 7 points or less
St Louis: 6-0 ATS vs. division opponents
Green Bay at San Francisco
Green Bay: 17-9 Over playing on grass fields
San Francisco: 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season
NY Giants at Dallas
NY Giants: 25-9 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
Dallas: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite
Monday, September 9
Philadelphia at Washington
Philadelphia: 0-7 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Washington: 6-0 ATS vs. division opponents
Houston at San Diego
Houston: 19-8 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Diego: 5-11 ATS in home games
NFL Week One Betting Trends
BangtheBook.com
The Baltimore Ravens have been great at getting out of the gate quickly the past few years. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in week one games over the last five seasons. They are also 11-5 ATS in their last 16 September games. Baltimore is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Broncos.
It probably comes as a surprise to many, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 season openers. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 week one games. The under is 7-1 in the Jaguars last 8 September games.
The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet this weekend. The Titans are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Steelers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the AFC. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two at Pittsburgh.
Seattle swept right through the NFL preseason, and the Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Indianapolis Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Oakland Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 week one games. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Look for Oakland to have a very long season. The under is 11-2 in the Colts last 13 home games.
Totals bettors should keep an eye on the over in the Packers and 49ers game this weekend. The over is 6-0 in the 49ers last 6 home games. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams as well.
The New York Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Dallas is 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games. The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against the NFC East. The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games at Dallas.
The St. Louis Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC West. They have to be happy to be taking on the Arizona Cardinals in week one. The Rams are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 week one games. Which trend will hold up this week?
The Philadelphia Eagles are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 September games. The Washington Redskins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 week one games. The Redskins are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 against the NFC East.
NFL Trends & Angles - Week 1
At long last, the 2013 NFL season has arrived, making this one of the most exciting weekends of the entire calendar year! And just because teams have not played a single meaningful game yet, do not think for one second that there are no profitable NFL Trends & Angles to be found, especially with NFL lines being the softest in the early weeks of the season that they will be all year.
Now, we have researched all NFL games since the 2000 season and found some correlations between a team's record in it previous season and it performance during September of the next season in certain situations. Thus we have separated the Trends & Angles this week into two parts, one for Good Teams and one for Bad Teams.
As a refresher, we are not using those terms subjectively, as we are defining Good Team as a team that won at least 10 games in the prior season and Bad Team as a team that lost at least 10 games. Those that have followed this column in the past are aware that we prefer to look for underdogs, and all the Bad Team angles below do that quite well.
However, contrary to our nature, the Good Team angles actually have one trend pointing to favorites and two angles pointing to 'overs', which should make our more "square" followers happy. As usual, all records in our NFL Trends & Angles are since the 2000 season, except that for the first several weeks, the records are for September games only!
Good Teams - At least 10 wins last season
Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (43-30-6, 58.9% ATS)
Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it.
Play the 'over' when Good Teams play September division games (76-52-3, 59.4%): Just like any other sport, NFL teams are more familiar with division opponents that any other teams on their schedule, and that is not to mention that division games are the most important ones. Truly good teams know how to take advantage of familiar defenses and they usually get up for these games, often resulting in higher scoring, especially when the familiar opponents try to keep pace.
Play the 'over' when Good Teams are favored over Bad Teams during September (62-40-1, 60.8%)
This is a often a case of a favorite being so much better then its opponent that it can name the score, but there are also occasions where the inferior team gets up for these games early in the year while they still have playoff aspirations just like everybody else. Both of these circumstances usually produce higher scoring games.
Bad Teams - At least 10 losses last season
Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (106-72-10, 59.2% ATS)
Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a very good winning percentage for this size of a sampling.
Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (59-33-3, 64.1% ATS)
Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win.
Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September (49-23-4, 68.1% ATS)
This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being dogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration.
Gridiron Angles - Week 1
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
The Packers are 8-0 ATS since December 2006 as a dog of more than three points in a game played on grass.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
The Lions are 0-9-1 ATS since Sep 18, 2005 as a favorite, or not a dog of more than two points vs a divisional opponent on a Sunday in the first 16 weeks of the season.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Calvin Johnson is 0-10-1 ATS (-7.8 ppg) in his career when he caught at least seven passes in a loss the last time he faced this team.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Cardinals are 0-10 OU (-10.4 ppg) since 2008 on the road when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.