Trends to Watch - September
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
It’s official. The pig is in the air.
That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘trendsvestites’ alike.
Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”
Play accordingly.
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): The Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record in the opening month of the season will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and Green Bay (9/21).
Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 ATS and they will face Atlanta and Tennessee in Week’s 2 and 3.
Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in Washington at 15-26 ATS when Jacksonville (9/14) and the Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.
Arizona will have two shots to better a 13-22 ATS record with San Diego in the desert on the opening Monday night and San Francisco 13 days later.
AWAY TEAMS
Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior ‘play against’ road team at 14-29 ATS. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Tampa Bay (9/14).
Keep an eye on (Bad): This has been a mystery for years why Pittsburgh has been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS, never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do a short week at Baltimore (9/11) and 10 days later at Carolina.
As good as Detroit has been at home this month, that’s how bad they are away from home at 16-27 ATS. Keep a watchful eye on them at Carolina (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey vs. the Jets.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): The defending NFL champions Seattle are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS and should be favored all three times against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.
Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the year being anticipated as favorites.
Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. Presuming Sam Bradford can go, the Rams (12-24 ATS) are a Week 1 home favorite versus Minnesota, but Week 3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.
Keep an eye on (Bad): As mentioned, the Bengals will have two home tilts and will be doling out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role. You might have to look to the other side.
UNDERDOGS
Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 ATS. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Boys could be dogs the entire month facing San Fran (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and company comes to Big D on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.
Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog at 9-20 ATS. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more ‘play against’ opportunities for NFL bettors.
DIVISION
Good: Kansas City has annually fared well against AFC West rivals early with a 22-11 ATS mark and makes the trip to Denver in Week 2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.
Keep an eye on (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a ‘play against’ squad in this treatise you are correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on Sept. 7 with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.
NEW ORLEANS (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (4 - 12) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (5 - 10 - 1) at ST LOUIS (7 - 9) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 98-134 ATS (-49.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (4 - 12) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 12) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 7) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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OAKLAND (4 - 12) at NY JETS (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CINCINNATI (11 - 6) at BALTIMORE (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BUFFALO (6 - 10) at CHICAGO (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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WASHINGTON (3 - 13) at HOUSTON (2 - 14) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TENNESSEE (7 - 9) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 6) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at MIAMI (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-121 ATS (+26.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAROLINA (12 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 12) - 9/7/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 5) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 6) at DENVER (15 - 4) - 9/7/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Monday, September 8
NY GIANTS (7 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 9) - 9/8/2014, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN DIEGO (10 - 8) at ARIZONA (10 - 6) - 9/8/2014, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing New England
1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. HOUSTON
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Houston is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. KANSAS CITY
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing Oakland
1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Jacksonville is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CHICAGO
Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
St. Louis is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of St. Louis's last 13 games at home
4:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games
4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. DALLAS
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 12 games at home
8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Denver
Denver is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Monday, September 8
7:10 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DETROIT
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing NY Giants
10:20 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 14-7 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Atlanta: 8-3 Under with a total of 49.5+ points
Minnesota at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 12-6 ATS in dome stadiums
St. Louis: 12-22 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 7-14 ATS at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh: 10-2 Under as a home favorite
Jacksonville at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 7-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Philadelphia: 3-13 ATS in home games
Oakland at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 6-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
NY Jets: 26-13 Under as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Baltimore: 9-4 Under playing on artificial turf
Buffalo at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 3-11 ATS as a road underdog
Chicago: 7-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Washington at Houston, 1:00 ET
Washington: 7-3 ATS vs. AFC South opponents
Houston: 0-6 ATS as a favorite
Tennessee at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 10-22 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Kansas City: 26-11 Under at home in September
New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 13-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Miami: 9-1 Under vs. division opponents
Carolina at Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET
Carolina: 7-1 ATS as a road underdog
Tampa Bay: 32-11 Under in the first two weeks of the season
San Francisco at Dallas, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 9-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Dallas: 10-3 Over as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Indianapolis at Denver, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 4-9 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 21-9 ATS as a favorite
Monday, Sept. 8th
NY Giants at Detroit, 7:10 ET
NY Giants: 18-5 ATS away vs. NFC North opponents
Detroit: 5-14 ATS playing on artificial turf
San Diego at Arizona, 10:20 ET
San Diego: 23-10 ATS in dome stadiums
Arizona: 12-4 Under in the first half of the season
StatFox Super Situations
INDIANAPOLIS at DENVER
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games 63-27 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.0% | 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
MINNESOTA at ST LOUIS
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points terrible passing defense from last season - allowed 255 or more passing yards/game 23-5 over the last 10 seasons. ( 82.1% | 17.5 units )
NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, versus division opponents 31-11 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.8% | 0.0 units )
JACKSONVILLE at PHILADELPHIA
Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (JACKSONVILLE) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year 47-19 since 1997. ( 71.2% | 26.1 units )
TENNESSEE at KANSAS CITY
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points terrible passing defense from last season - allowed 255 or more passing yards/game 23-5 over the last 10 seasons. ( 82.1% | 17.5 units )
MINNESOTA at ST LOUIS
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, in conference games 63-27 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.0% | 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA
Play On - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year 84-43 since 1997. ( 66.1% | 36.7 units )
Gridiron Angles - Week 1
September 6, 2014
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
The Giants are 14-0 ATS since 2004 as an away dog in non-Sunday night games with a total over 44, facing a team they defeated by no more than 14 points last meeting.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
The Bengals are 0-8 ATS since 2008 against an AFC North foe that they beat by at least six points last meeting where they were not home dogs.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Tom Brady is 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since 2005 against AFC teams when he threw for over 280 yards on less than 70% passing last time he faced this team, in a game where they were not favored by more than four points.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their season opener.
NFL O/U TREND:
The Steelers are 0-11 OU since December 04, 2011 as a home favorite facing a team they allowed no more than 20 points to last meeting.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM:
Teams which attempted at least 2.5 field goals per game last season are 12-1 OU in their season opener the next year. Active on Baltimore.