Inside the Stats - Week 3
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
The dust has settled on Week 2 of the NFL season and with we find no less than three unbeaten teams that failed to make the playoffs last season – Arizona, Buffalo and Houston - along with three winless teams who participated in the postseason last year - Indianapolis, Kansas City and New Orleans.
Let’s go inside the stats and analyze the numbers you won’t find on the scoreboard. Remember, all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, September 15th unless noted otherwise.
Apples to Apples
With three games under the belt for most college football teams, here are the leading offensive and defensive stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of two game results. No FCS stats are used.
Best Offenses Yards Per Game
Nebraska 673, Baylor 622, Western Kentucky 606
Worst Offenses Yards Per Game
Wake Forest 163, Eastern Michigan 171, SMU 171
Best Defenses Yards Per Game
LSU 206, Baylor 231, Stanford 249
Worst Defenses Yards Per Game
UNLV 702, Bowling Green 641, Fresno State 600
Inside the Stats
Football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. The gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.
That being said, here are the teams who won ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) last week; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:
NCAA: Middle Tennessee State.
NFL: Chicago Bears
These are the teams who lost ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) last week; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:
NCAA: Colorado.
NFL: San Francisco 49ers.
In addition, here are the games this week involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win, with the phony loser listed first.
NCAA: None
NFL: Houston-NY Giants and Arizona Cardinals-San Francisco 49ers.
It’s What’s Trending
Here are the hottest trends on this week’s card from my all-knowing database:
The Atlanta Falcons are 8-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 5-0 in division games.
The Buffalo Bills are 2-22 ATS in games after defeating the Miami Dolphins.
The New England Patriots are 2-13 ATS in their last fifteen roles as double-digit favorites.
Since returning as an expansion team in 1999 the Cleveland Browns are 12-2-1 ATS in their 2nd home game of the season.
Stat of The Week
The Seattle Seahawks are 18-1 SU at home with QB Russell Wilson. The Denver Broncos are 3-30 ATS in their last thirty-three SU losses as an underdog.
SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DALLAS (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 99-135 ATS (-49.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-122 ATS (+22.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (2 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MINNESOTA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BALTIMORE (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GREEN BAY (1 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-122 ATS (+25.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (2 - 0) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Monday, September 22
CHICAGO (1 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DALLAS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-8-1 SU in its last 10 games ,on the road
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
SAN DIEGO vs. BUFFALO
San Diego is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
Green Bay is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home
HOUSTON vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home
TENNESSEE vs. CINCINNATI
Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
OAKLAND vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
KANSAS CITY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
DENVER vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games when playing at home against Denver
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
PITTSBURGH vs. CAROLINA
Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Monday, September 22
CHICAGO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games on the road
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 3-4-2 ATS in their last 9 games
StatFox Super Situations
PITTSBURGH at CAROLINA
Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game 41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (JACKSONVILLE) after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season 42-20 over the last 10 seasons. ( 67.7% | 0.0 units )
INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE
Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (JACKSONVILLE) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, bad team from last season (25% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year 49-20 since 1997. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
San Diego at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 56-36 as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Buffalo: 8-23 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival
Dallas at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 12-27 ATS in road games off a non-conference game
St Louis: 12-26 ATS against NFC East division opponents
Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Washington: 37-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Philadelphia: 4-13 ATS in home lined games
Houston at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Houston: 16-6 OVER in road games in September
NY Giants: 0-6 in September games
Minnesota at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 51-26 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
New Orleans: 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents
Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 15-5 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
Cincinnati: 7-0 after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 59-38 UNDER (+17.2 Units) off a home win
Cleveland: 21-37 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Green Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-0 OVER in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Detroit: 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 19-8 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Jacksonville: 3-11 ATS in home games
Oakland at New England, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 4-13 after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games
New England: 10-2 off 1 or more consecutive unders
San Franciso at Arizona, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 14-17 UNDER against conference opponents
Arizona: 1-6 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points
Denver at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Denver: 47-26 OVER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Seattle: 14-5 ATS in home lined games
Kansas City at Miami, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 14-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents
Miami: 158-111 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest
Pittsburgh at Carolina, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS in the first month of the season
Carolina: 17-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better
NFL Betting Trends for Monday, Sept. 22
Chicago at NY Jets, 8:30 ET
Chicago: 13-4 OVER in road lined games
NY Jets: 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better
San Diego @ Buffalo
The Chargers are 7-11 ATS when the line is 3 or less and 15-25 ATS on the road with a total of 42½ to 45, but late trend is 4-1 the last 5. San Diego is 41-23 ATS on the turf, 8-1 ATS in September, 11-6 ATS on the road and 13-8 ATS in the underdog role. Chargers are 23-16 Over as a road dog of 3 or less. The Bills are 24-16 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less including 5-1 lately, 11-4 ATS at home overall and 7-3 ATS in September, but they’re slao 26-41 ATS off a divisional win including 0-4 lately. Buffalo is 28-15 Under as a home favorite of 3 or less and 27-19 Over versus AFC opponents. In the series Buffalo is 3-1 ATS the last 4 at home against San Diego.
Dallas @ St Louis
The Cowboys are 5-12 ATS favorites, 10-15 ATS versus NFC opponents, 13-18 ATS as road favorites of 3 or less and 13-21 ATS playing under a dome, but they’re also 5-1 ATS on the road with a total of 42½ to 45 points. Dallas is 20-14 Under laying in a dome and 7-2 Under in September. The Rams are 16-11 ATS underdogs and 13-8 ATS in the domes, but 17-31 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45, 12-26 ATS versus NFC East opponents and 24-42 ATS in September. St Louis is 14-9 Under as a home dog of 3 points or less and 24-14 Under versus NFC East opponents. In this series 5 of the last 7 have gone Under the total.
Washington @ Philadelphia
The Redskins are 63-46 ATS dogs of 3½ to 9½ points and 37-21 ATS as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points. Washington 86-63 Under versus divisional opponents including 9-3 Under lately, 34-22 Under as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points and 9-5 Under when the total is 49½ or higher. The eagles are 4-13 ATS overall at home, 9-15 ATS versus NFC opponents, 10-16 ATS on grass, 2-7 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points and 13-21 ATS overall, but 2-0 this season and 20-14 ATS coming off a Monday night game. Philadelphia 65-48 Under after 2 or more consecutive wins.
Houston @ NY Giants
The Texans are 11-22 ATS playing on turf including 1-6 lately, but they’re 6-3 ATS as road favorites of 3 points or less. Houston is 9-4 Under versus NFC East opponents, but 26-16 Over in September and 3-0 Over as road favorites of 3 or less. NY Giants are 8-14 ATS as home dogs of 3 points or less, 1-8 ATS in September, 1-7 ATS versus AFC opponents and 3-9 ATS against AFC South teams. New York is 21-13 Under overall and 12-3 Under when the line is 3 points or less. In this series all 3 meetings have gone Under the total.
Minnesota @ New Orleans
The Vikings are 16-10 ATS underdogs, 13-6 ATS under the domes and 3-0 ATS in games where the total is 49½ or higher. Minnesota is 10-4 Over on the raod when the total is 49½ or more and 20-10 Over overall when the total is 49½ or more. The Saints are 11-5 ATS at home, 21-14 ATs at home when the total is 49½ or more and 2-0 ATS versus NFC North opponents. New Orleans is 23-13 Over at home when the total is 49½ or more and 33-18 Over versus NFC North opponents. This series is 10-3 Over the last 13 meetings.
Tennessee @ Cincinnati
The Titans are 2-0 ATS versus AFC North opponents, but 5-15 ATS with a total of 42½ to 49 points and 1-4 ATS on the road with a total between 42½ and 45. Tennessee 14-9 Over as an underdog, but 26-19 Under playing on turf. The Bengals are 21-13 ATS overall, 13-8 ATS as favorites, 10-3 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 6-1 ATS home favorites of 3½ to 7 points, 12-5 ATS overall at home, 14-7 ATS on turf, 6-2 ATS in September and 14-9 ATS with a total of 42½ to 49 points. Cincinnati is 78-57 Under when the total is 42½ to 49 points and 16-10 Under versus AFC opponents. In this series Tennessee is 10-3 straight up and 9-4 ATS at Cincinnati.>br>
Baltimore @ Cleveland
The Ravens are 8-4 ATS versus divisional opponents, 37-29 ATS off a divisional win including 5-2 lately. Baltimore is 10-6 Over as underdogs, but 41-26 Under versus divisional opponents including 10-4 Under lately and 35-25 Under playing in September. The Browns are 4-8 ATS when the line is 3 or less, but 6-3 ATS in September. Cleveland 41-27 Under in Spetember, 11-6 Under with a total of 42½ to 49 points and 9-4 Under when the line is 3 or less. In this series baltimore is 22-8 straight up. The Under is 10-4 at Cleveland and the last 4 overall of gone Under the total.
Green Bay @ Detroit
The Packers are 3-8 ATS when the line is 3 or less, 2-8 ATS as underdogs, 0-3 ATS road dogs of 3 points or less and 4-8 ATS on turf, but they’re 9-4 ATS versus divisional opponents. Packers 12-6 Over on the road, 5-1 Over under the dome and 7-2 Over in September. The Lions are 12-21 ATS overall, 6-10 ATS at home, 9-14 ATS favorites, 4-17 ATS when the total is 49½ or more including 3-9 ATS at home with a total of 49½ or more and 6-14 ATS in a dome. Detroit 20-14 Over overall, 21-13 Over as a home favorite of 3 points or less, 13-8 Over under the dome and 14-7 Under iwth a total of 49½ or more, but they’re 15-8 Over playing as a favorite. In the series Green Bay is 35-11 straight up and the Packers are 3-1 ATS the last 4 meetings. 3 of the last 4 games have gone Under the total.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
The Colts are 22-14 ATS overall, 10-5 ATS as favorites, 5-1 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 17-10 ATS versus AFC opponents, 19-8 ATS when playing on a short week, 9-2 ATS versus divisional opponents, 8-3 ATS on grass and 14-8 ATS when the total is between 42½ and 49 points. Indianapolis 10-6 Under as a favorite, 9-3 Under versus divisional opponents, 17-10 Under versus AFC opponents and 14-7 Under when the total is 42½ to 49 points. The Jaguars are 11-21 ATS overall, 3-11 ATS at home, 3-13 ATS underdogs of 3½ to 9½ pointd, 6-13 ATS home dogs of 3½ to 7 points, 10-17 ATS on grass, 1-8 ATS in September and 13-21 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points. jacksonville is 13-7 Over as home dogs of 3½ to 7 points, but 10-5 Under at home, 8-4 Under versus divisional opponents and 39-29 Under in September. In the series The Colts are 3-1 ATS the last 4 including 2-0 ATS at Jacksonville. Last 4 Games have gone Under the total.
Oakland @ New England
The Raiders are 13-9 ATS underdogs of 10 points or more and 5-2 ATS on turf, but 13-19 ATS overall and 6-10 ATS When the total is 45½ to 49 points. Oakland is 19-9 Under on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points. The Patriots are 12-7 ATS at home and 17-11 ATS on turf, but just 11-25 ATS at home with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 1-4 ATS as home favorites of 10½ to 14 points. New England is 23-15 Over overall, 20-12 Over as a favorite, 13-6 Over at home and 19-9 Over when playing on turf.
San Francisco @ Arizona
The 49ers are 6-2 ATS playing in domes and 9-5 ATS playing on turf. San Francisco is 18-10 ATS in this series including 9-4 ATS at Arizona. 49ers have won the last 4 meetings and are 3-1 ATS in those 4. Arizona is 7-3 ATS in September, but 20-31 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. Cardinals are 17-10 Under on turf, 8-2 Under in September and 15-10 Under versus NFC opponents.
Denver @ Seattle
The Broncos are 22-14 ATS overall, but 0-2 this year, 22-15 ATS as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points, 5-0 ATS on the road when the total is 45½ to 49 points and 10-4 ATS with a total of 42½ to 49 points, but they’re just 2-6 ATS on turf. Denver 106-60 Over when the total is 42½ to 49 points, 58-33 Over versus NFC opponents, 19-7 Over versus AFC West opponents, 40-23 Over on turf, 14-6 Over off 2 or more consecutive wins, 24-13 Over overall lately and 10-6 Over on the road. Seahawks are 27-12 ATS overall lately, 14-5 ATS at home, 20-10 ATS on turf, 6-0 ATS home favorite of 3½ to 7 points, 18-11 ATS favorites overall and 10-3 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points. Seattle 8-2 Over versus AFC opponents and 10-4 Over versys AFC West opponents.
Kansas City @ Miami
The Chiefs are 8-12 ATS underdogs, 0-4 ATS road dogs of 3½ to 7 points, 10-17 ATS versus AFC opponents and 14-33 ATS versus AFC East opponents, but they’re 47-32 ATS in September. Kansas City 47-33 Under in Spetember including 7-3 Under lately. The Dolphins are 21-34 ATS home favorites of 3½ to 7 points and 21-36 ATS at home with the total between 38½ and 42 points, but they’re 10-5 ATS at home, 36-15 ATS versys AFC opponents and 6-3 ATS in September. Miami is 37-23 Under at home with a total of 38½ to 42 points, 17-6 Under versus AFC opponents, 19-12 Under overall, 35-21 Under as home favorites of 3½ to 7 points including 5-0 lately, but they’re 7-3 Over in Spetember. In this series Miami is 7-2 ATS including 5-1 ATS at home.
Pittsburgh @ Carolina
the Steelers are 31-44 ATS in September including 1-8 ATS lately and 6-10 ATS with the total between 35½ and 42 points, but they’re 24-18 ATS as road dogs of 3 points or less. Pittsburgh 27-16 Under as road dogs of 3 points or less, 4-1 Under on the road with a total between 38½ and 42 points, but they’re 4-1 Over off a divisional loss. The Panthers are 20-14 ATS overall, 17-10 ATS on grass and 14-5 ATS when the line is 3 points or less. Carolina 21-14 Under overall, 12-6 Under as favorites, 22-12 Under as home favorites of 3 points or less including 5-0 Under lately, 28-12 Under athome with a total of 38½ to 42 points, 9-2 Under off 2 or more consecutive wins and 18-10 Under on grass. Pittsburgh owns the series with a 5-0 ATS record against Carolina.
Chicago @ NY Jets
The Bears are 12-21 ATS overall, 4-9 ATS underdogs, 4-13 ATS when the line is 3 points or less and 6-18 ATS on the road with the total of 42½ to 49 points, but they’re 14-9 ATS versus AFC East opponents. Chicago 22-12 Over overall, 13-4 Over on the road, 7-2 Over versus AFC opponents, 5-1 Over as road dogs of 3 points or less and 12-6 Over with a line of 3 points or less. NY Jets are 5-2 ATS home favorites of 3 points or less, 6-2 ATS when the total is 42½ to 49 points and 14-8 ATS versus NFC North opponents. New York 4-1 Over as home favorites of 3 points or less. In the series Chicago is 4-1 ATS including 2-0 ATS at the Jets. The Under is 5-1 the last 6 and 3-0 Under at New York.
Gridiron Angles - Week 3
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
The Giants are 13-0 ATS (15.7 ppg) since December 22, 2002 as a dog after they allowed more than 9 points fewer than their season-to-date average last week.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
The Titans are 0-12 ATS (-14.7 ppg) since 2004 facing a team which averages over 8 yards per passing attempt put less than 5 yards per rushing attempt.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Cam Newton is 16-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) in his career when not more than a 10-point favorite in games this less than 13 days rest, after a game where he threw at least 33 passes and they did not lose by 21+.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Eagles are 0-11 ATS as a favorite when facing a team that has forced an average of at least 5.8 punts per game season-to-date.
NFL O/U TREND:
The Eagles are 0-10 OU (-13.60 ppg) since January 02, 2011 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM:
Teams that attempted at least five field goals last game are 77-117-2 OU. Active on Buffalo.