NFL Trends Week 5

PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the NY Giants last 17 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

NEW ORLEANS vs. CHICAGO
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Green Bay's last 25 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

KANSAS CITY vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

NEW ENGLAND vs. CINCINNATI
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

JACKSONVILLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore

SEATTLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

CAROLINA vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

DENVER vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

HOUSTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 11 games
San Francisco is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home

SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
Oakland is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego

NY JETS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home

Kansas City at Tennessee
Kansas City: 8-21 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less
Tennessee: 41-22 OVER in October games

Baltimore at Miami
Baltimore: 49-31 UNDER in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Miami: 6-0 UNDER in October games

Jacksonville at St Louis
Jacksonville: 4-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
St Louis: 11-1 ATS in home games after 4 or more ATS consecutive losses

New England at Cincinnati
New England: 100-70 ATS in road games
Cincinnati: 30-48 ATS in October games

Seattle at Indianapolis
Seattle: 71-15 OVER when they score 28 or more points
Indianapolis: 80-17 OVER when they allow 28 or more points

Detroit at Green Bay
Detroit: 1-10 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Green Bay: 11-2 ATS versus division opponents

New Orleans at Chicago
New Orleans: 12-3 ATS off a home win
Chicago: 19-34 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

Philadelphia at NY Giants
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game
NY Giants: 6-0 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive unders

Carolina at Arizona
Carolina: 51-30 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Arizona: 13-4 OVER after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points

San Diego at Oakland
San Diego: 57-36 ATS after 2 or more consecutive ATS wins
Oakland: 21-40 ATS in home games versus division opponents

Denver at Dallas
Denver: 14-5 ATS in all lined games
Dallas: 0-6 ATS in home games off 1 or more straight overs

Houston at San Francisco
Houston: 21-9 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-18 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game

Monday, October 7

NY Jets at Atlanta
NY Jets: 0-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Atlanta: 17-5 UNDER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

2-Minute Handicap
Playbook.com

WEEK 5

Thursday, Oct 3

Buffalo 7-0 A off SU dog win Games 5-8... 5-1 L6 VS AFC North
CLEVELAND 4-0 as HF vs AFC East... 6-1 home off SU div dog win...1-5 after Bengals... 2-7-1 L10 as HF's< 3 pts off SU loss

Sunday, Oct 6

Kansas City 4-0 off SU win vs non-conf opp off SU loss... 0-5 as favs off BB SU wins
TENNESSEE 6-14 SU and 3-16-1 ATS vs AFC West... 3-12-1 H when .500 exact

Baltimore SERIES: 3-10 L13... 5-2-1 ATS vs AFC East
MIAMI 0-6 ATS as favs vs AFC North... 0-6 as HF Games 5-8 ... 4-15 SU vs AFC North

New England 6-0 as favs vs opp off BB SU losses... 9-1 off BB SUATS wins vs opp off BB SU losses... 4-1 2nd game BB RG ... 2-5-1 vs AFC North
CINNCINATI SERIES: 0-3 L3G... 10-1 non-div HD's... 1-8 SU ATS vs AFC East

Seattle SERIES: 1-3 L4G... 8-1 as non-conf favs off BB SU wins
INDIANAPOLIS 8-1 off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SU wins... 1-8 as non-conf dogs vs opp off BB SUATS wins

Detroit SERIES: 3-11 L14G / 1-3 L 4 A ... 4-0 as RD's < 6 pts w /revenge... 1-5 off SU win vs opp w /rest... Schwartz: 5-1 as RD pts...16-3 as favs 3 pts w/revenge vs conf opp ... 1-5 vs div in Game Five or less
NY GIANTS SERIES: 1-4 L5 H... 1-5 as favs 10 < pts vs 3 pts

Carolina 5-1 after score 35 > pts vs non- div opp... 0-7 as non-div RF off SUATS win... Rivera: 4-0 vs opp off SU dog win
ARIZONA SERIES: 2-5 L7G... 7-0 as HD's vs < .500 non-div opp

San Diego 4-1 a div RF pts
OAKLAND SERIES 6-2 L8G / 2-9 L11 H ... 0-5 in 2nd of BB HG's vs. .250 > opp

Denver 5-0 A vs opp off SU fav loss... 9-0 O/U vs non-div opp w/ OU line pts / 5-1 as non-div opp off SU loss

Houston 9-2 as dogs off non-conf game... 0-4 A vs NFC West
SAN FRANCISCO 4-2-1 vs AFC South... 2-8 as non-conf favs 3 > pts

Monday, Oct 7

New York Jets 5-1 as Mon dogs < 8 pts ...8-2 in 2nd of BB RG's vs <.500 opp... Ryan: 1-7 as dog < 9 pts
ATLANTA SERIES: 3-1 L 4... 6-1 as favs in 2nd of BB HG's... 4-1 as non-div HF's <10 pts off non-conf game

ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

NFL Trends & Angles – Week 5
Insiderangles.com

The final week of September treated our NFL Trends & Angles fairly well as all qualifying plays went a collective 17-12-1, 58.6 percent ATS. Now that we have reached the month of October, our Trends & Angles will no longer feature September trends only as we are now ready to unwrap some of our favorite year-round angles that are applicable for the whole season.

Not surprisingly to those of you that have followed us in the past, the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ whenever we have total angles. Ironically, our first angle this week is one of our few that actually points to favorites as this is the time of year when byes have begun, but the rest of the trends do fit the “ugly” mold.

Also, while we went back to 2000 for our September angles for the sake of sample sizes, we will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

One final reminder is that you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.

So without further ado, here are our first season-long NFL Trends & Angles for 2013, with all records being for the last eight seasons since 2005 plus the first four weeks of this season.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (85-48-4, 63.9% ATS): This is the one of our few angles that is not contrarian in nature. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: Carolina -1 and Green Bay -7.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (143-80-5, 64.1% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: Baltimore +2½, Philadelphia +1 and New York Jets +9½ (Monday).

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (180-116-6, 60.8% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Baltimore +2½, New England +1 and Philadelphia +1.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (73-52-5, 59.1% ATS since 2005): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (41-27-1, 60.3 percent), although we are not quite comfortable enough with that smallish sample size to present it as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 34-25-4, 57.6 percent ATS. Qualifiers: Houston +7 and New York Giants -1. Please note that the Jacksonville Jaguars and St. Louis Rams also qualify, but they are facing each other.

Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (102-71-2, 59.0% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. Qualifiers: Buffalo +4 (Thursday), Jacksonville +11½ and San Diego -4.

Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (77-48-4, 61.6% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifiers: Jacksonville +11½ and Philadelphia +1.

Week 5 NFL Trends
By Mike Wynn

Kansas City @ Tennessee.
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS off a straight win versus a non-conference opponent off a straight up loss, they’re 5-1 ATS versus AFC South opponents, 5-2 ATS in October and 4-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins. The Chiefs, however, are 2-6 ATS lately in the favorite role. The Titans are just 3-16-1 ATS versus AFC West opponents including 0-10 ATS as an underdog, they’re just 1-6 ATS at home off a home win, 2-9 ATS versus winning teams and 2-8 ATS after scoring 34 points or more.

Baltimore @ Miami.
The Ravens are 2-5 ATS in October, but the Black Birds are also 21-12 ATS as road dogs of 3 points or less, 11-5 ATS versus winning teams, 22-14 ATS versus AFC East opponents, 11-3-1 ATS as an underdog versus AFC East opponents, 17-8-1 ATS as a dog after losing as a favorite and 5-0 ATS overall off a loss. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS when the posted line is 3 points or less either way and 10-4 ATS after a straight up loss. Miami is also 4-15 straight up versus AFC North opponents and 0-6 ATS versus AFC North opponents lately. Miami is also a bankroll depleting 73-95 ATS at home and 80-97 ATS when in the favorite role. Take note that the home team is 21-10 ATS in Miami’s last 31 games, but the Dolphins are also 10-3 ATS the last 13 in this series with Baltimore.

Jacksonville @ St Louis.
The Jaguars 10-6 ATS as a double digit dog, 7-1 ATS after scoring 7 points or less when facing an opponent off a straight up and ATS loss and 5-1 ATS after giving up 35 points or more. However, Jacksonville is also 11-20 ATS overall in the underdog role, 2-6 ATS versus NFC opponents and 33-41 ATS in October. The Rams are 4-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses, 0-5 ATS as a favorite and 2-9 ATS after playing San Francisco, but St Louis is also a huge 17-2 ATS versus a team off 3 straight up losses in a row with the last loss being by double digits. Note in the series that St Louis is 3-0 ATs the last 3.

New England @ Cincinnati.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the 2nd game of back to back road games, 32-11-1 ATS as an underdog, 11-5 ATS on the road, 8-1 ATS in week 5, 60-44 ATS when the line is 3 points or less and 6-0 ATS as an underdog or favorite of 2 points or less versus an AFC North opponent. However, New England is 2-5-1 ATS overall versus AFC North opponents lately. Cincinnati is 10-1 ATS as a non-divisional home underdog, but they’re 1-8 ATS straight up and ATS versus AFC East opponents, 1-8 ATS off a straight up divisional road loss, 75-94 ATS at home, 32-49 ATS off a divisional loss including 0-5 lately and the Bengals are just 8-21 ATS in October. Note in this series New Engalnd is 7-1 straight up including 3-0 straight and ATS in the last 3.

Seattle @ Indianapolis.
The Seahawks are 27-10 ATS overall, 11-5 ATS as a favorite, 14-6 ATS when the line is 3 points or less either way, 12-1 ATS versus winning teasm, 18-7 ATS on turf and 8-1 ATS as a non-conference favorite off back to back straight up wins. The Colts are 10-2 ATS off a straight up road win, 8-1 ATS off back to back straight up and ATS wins, 11-5 ATS overall lately and 10-3 ATS at home. Indianapolis is also just 1-8 ATS as a non-conference underdog versus an opponent off back to back straight up and ATS wins. Note in the series Indaianpolis is 3-1 ATS the last 4 meetings.

Detroit @ Green Bay.
The Lions are 11-17 ATs versus NFC opponents, 7-11 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS off a straight win versus a rested team, but Detroit is also 6-2 ATS in October. Green Bay coming off a bye week is 10-2 ATS. They’re also 9-1 ATS off a straight up and ATS loss, 16-3 ATS as a favorite of less than 7 points, 31-13 Overall under McCarthy, 14-5 ATS at home, 11-2 ATS versus NFC North, 22-11 ATS as a favorite overall and 7-1 ATS the game after allowing 30 or more points. Note in this series Green Bay is 12-1 straight up and 10-3 ATS versus Detroit and the packers are 11-4-1 ATS at Lambeau versus Detroit.

New Orleans @ Chicago.
The Saints are 5-1 ATS versus NFC North, 23-14 ATS the last 37 overall, 14-5 ATS off a straight up win, 10-5 ATS versus winning teams, 9-1 ATS off a double digit Monday night win and they’re now 12-0 ATS with Payton running the show. However, New Orleans is 3-12-1 ATS in week 5. Chicago just 6-18-1 ATS as a pick or favorite, 4-8 ATS versus winning teams, 7-10 ATs at home, 10-16 ATS versus NFC opponents and 1-7 straight up and 0-6-2 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite. In the series New Orleans is 4-1-1 ATS the last 6.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants.
The eagles are 5-17 ATS straight up and ATS off a loss, 5-12 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 12-23 ATS overall the last 35, 1-4 ATS after allowing 30 or more points, 7-18-1 ATS off an ATS loss and 5-15-1 ATS overall the last 21 games. NY Giants are 8-14 ATS as a favorite, but 25-10-1 ATS in October. Note in this series the underdog s 13-3-1 ATS the last 17. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS the last 5 and the Eagles are 4-1 ATS the last 5 trips to New York.

Carolina @ Arizona.
The Panthers are 6-2 ATS on the road, 5-1 ATS after scoring 35 or more points and 5-1 ATS versus NFC opponents. However, the Panthers are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite versus a non-divisional opponent off a straight up and ATS win. Arizona is 21-14 ATS as a home underdog overall, 4-1 as a home dog of 3 points or less and 7-0 ATs as a home dog versus an opponent with a sub 500 record, but the Cardinals are also 1-7 ATS in October, 2-5 ATS at home and 0-6 ATS off a straight up underdog win versus a losing team.

San Diego @ Oakland.
The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in October, 7-11 ATS as a favorite, 0-4 ATS as a divisional road favorite of more than 5 points and 0-7 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they had an ATS win of 7 points or more, but thye’re 4-1 ATS as a divisional road favorite of less than 5 points. The Raiders are 7-13 ATS as home dogs of 3½ to 7 points, but they’re just 7-1-1 ATS as a home dog off a straight up and ATS loss and 9-2 ATS versus San Diego when coming off 2 or more losses. In this series San Diego is 8-2 ATS in Oakland, the road team is 5-0 ATS the last 5 and the underdog is 8-0 ATS the last 8. Also note the favorite is 10-2 ATS in Oakland games lately and the visitor in San Diego games is 8-2-1.

Denver @ Dallas.
The Broncos are just 3-8 ATS in October, but Denver is also 10-1 ATS as a favorite of 3½ to 9½ points, 14-6 ATS as a favorite, 14-3 ATS overall, 17-9 ATS versus NFC East opponents, 12-6 ATS on the road and 11-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins. Dallas is 14-21 ATS the last 35 overall and 5-13 ATS at home, but the Cowboys are also 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or more, 8-4 ATS as a home dog of 3½ to 7 points and 7-3 ATS versus AFC opponents. Note in the series that Denver is 7-1 ATS last 8 meetings with Dallas and note Broncos head man John Fox is 10-1 ATS off a double digit win versus an opponent off a straight up loss as a favorite.

Houston @ San Francisco.
The Texans are 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 3 to 9½ points, 2-6 ATS versus NFC West opponents and they’re 3-11 ATS overall the last 14. However, Houston is 35-16 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses and 21-9 ATS on grass. San Francisco is 12-5 ATS as a favorite of 3½ to 9½ points, 14-6 ATS the last 20 at home, 6-2 ATS in October and 7-3 ATS versus AFC, but they’re just 2-8 ATS as favorites of 3 or more points versus AFC opponents.

NY Jets @ Atlanta.
The Jets are 3-7 ATS as an underdog of 3½ to 9½ points, 3-9 ATS versus NFC opponents, 3-13 ATS as an underdog after allowing 35 points or more and 0-5 ATS as underdogs of 4 points or more. The Falcons are 6-11 ATS when playing on Monday night and 3-10-1 ATS overall the last 14, but the dirty birds are also 12-5 ATS at home off a loss including 5-0 ATS at home off a home loss, 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more versus AFC opponents and 7-1 ATS as a favorite in the second of back to back home games. Note Atlanta head coach Mike Smith is 16-0 ATS off a loss of 6 points or more.

Gridiron Angles - Week 5
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

The Packers are 10-0 ATS since January 23, 2011 on grass sur- face vs a divisional opponent

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Chargers are 0-10 ATS since December 20, 2009 as a favorite after playing as a dog.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

Michael Vick is 0-8 ATS in his career following a game where he threw for at least 170 yards while completing less than 15 passes.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Titans are 0-10-1 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since January 2008 when coming off a win and facing an opponent on a 3+ game winning streak.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

Teams which are favorites after winning by less than 17 points as a home dog are 59-88-1 ATS. Active on San Diego.

NFL O/U TREND:

The Cowboys are 12-0 OU since December 10, 2006 at home when facing a team completing at least 65.1% of their passes on the season, which threw for less than 385 yards last game.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

The theme for Sunday’s game between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins is “Bounce Back” as each team looks to shake off an ugly showing in Week 4. Baltimore’s 25-20 loss at Buffalo was plagued by turnovers while Miami fell victim to a Saints team who have not lost at home on Monday Night Football since 2008. The Dolphins turned the ball over four times, gave up 413 passing yards, failed to protect their quarterback and lost the turnover battle 4-to-1 yet oddsmakers are still doling out the token the 3-point home field advantage in this game against the reigning Super Bowl champs. So much for “wearing a target” all season! Small non-divisional home faves on grass are 57-104-7 ATS (35-percent) since 2008 and Miami with a bye on-deck, here is an angle to consider that is 17-3 ATS since 2009 when backing the road dog (Ravens): Miami’s pass protection ranks dead last in the league (18 sacks allowed). Ryan Tannehill, meet Terrell Suggs. Take BALTIMORE to cover.