NFL Trends Week 7

CLEVELAND vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
Jacksonville is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Jacksonville is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

CINCINNATI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 11 of St. Louis's last 16 games at home

TENNESSEE vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Washington
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

MINNESOTA vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Minnesota

ATLANTA vs. BALTIMORE
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

NEW ORLEANS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games

MIAMI vs. CHICAGO
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

CAROLINA vs. GREEN BAY
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Green Bay14-4-1 SU in its last 19 games at home

KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
NY Giants are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 9 games
Dallas is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants

ARIZONA vs. OAKLAND
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Arizona

SAN FRANCISCO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Denver is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home

HOUSTON vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Pittsburgh's last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home

Cincinnati at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 11-1 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Indianapolis: 15-5 ATS in home games

Tennessee at Washington, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 41-22 ATS in non-conference games
Washington: 30-48 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Miami at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Miami: 38-21 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Chicago: 6-15 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

Cleveland at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 1-6 ATS off a home win
Jacksonville: 2-10 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Seattle at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 22-9 ATS against conference opponents
St Louis: 17-33 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points

Carolina at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Green Bay: 45-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Atlanta at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS in road games in the first half of the season
Baltimore: 43-23 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Minnesota at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 57-36 OVER in weeks 5 through 9
Buffalo: 3-12 ATS after playing a game at home

New Orleans at Detroit, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 2-9 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Detroit: 50-73 ATS as a favorite

Kansas City at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 28-48 ATS when they allow 400 or more total yards
San Diego: 58-30 ATS when their defense forces 2 turnovers

New York Giants at Dallas, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 49-29 ATS in road games off a division game
Dallas: 26-43 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Arizona at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 21-7 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game
Oakland: 48-70 ATS off a division game

San Francisco at Denver, 8:30 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Denver: 11-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Houston at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Houston: 15-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games
Pittsburgh: 8-1 UNDER in October games

StatFox Super Situations

CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record 118-64 since 1997. ( 64.8% | 47.6 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SAN DIEGO) off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss 29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) off a home win against opponent off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog 38-16 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.4% | 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
The Bengals are 22-15 ATS overall, 5-1 ATS as road dogs of 3 points or less, 3-1 ATS versus AFC South opponents and 15-9 ATS playing on turf, but they’re also just 3-8 ATS playing in weeks 5 through 9. Cincinnat is 17-11 Under versus AFC opponents, 5-1 Under when the total is 49½ or higher and 7-3 Over in weeks 5 through 9, but 3-1 Under versus AFC South opponents. The Colts are 15-5 ATS at home, 14-5 ATS as favorites, 11-5 ATS when the line is 3 points or less either way, 26-14 ATS overall, 21-10 ATS versus AFC opponents, 16-6 ATS under domes, 9-2 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 and 18-11 ATS at home when the total is 49½ or more, but just 11-20 ATS as home favorites of 3 points or less. Indianapolis is 5-1 Over in all games this season, but 18-13 Under as home favorites of 3 points or less and 18-13 Under versus AFC opponents.

Tennessee @ Washington
The Titans are 13-20 ATS overall, 9-14 ATs as underdogs, 5-16 ATS when the total is 42½ to 49 points and 2-6 ATS after a divisional game, but they’re a solid 41-22 ATS versus NFC opponents and 15-6 ATS versus NFC East opponents. Tennessee is 16-10 Over when playing as an underdog and 44-24 Over playing in October, but 14-5 Under on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 64-44 Under overall when the total is 42½ to 49 points. The Redskins are 30-48 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 54-83 ATS overall as favorites, 13-25 ATS as home favorites of 3½ to 7 points and 45-64 ATS when the total is 42½ to 49 points, but they’re also 8-4 ATS versus AFC South opponents. Washington is 8-4 Over as a favorite and 7-3 Over versus AFC opponents, but 9-4 Under off 2 or more consecutive losses. In this series Tennessee is 2-0 ATS at Washington and the Over is 4-1 the last 5 meetings.

Miami @ Chicago
The Dolphins are 13-7 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 0-4 ATS on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 3-6 ATS in weeks 5 through 9. Miami is 10-6 Under playing on the road and 11-3 Under on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points, but 7-2 Over versus NFC opponents. The Bears are 6-15 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 14-23 ATS overall, 4-13 ATS at home, 4-10 ATs when the total is 42½ to 49 points and 10-18 ATS playing on grass, but 50-36 ATS versus AFC opponents and 15-9 ATS versus AFC East opponents. Chicago is 25-13 Over overall, 14-7 Over as a favorite, 15-7 Over when the line is 3 points or less, 10-4 Over with a total of 42½ to 49 points, 19-10 Over on grass, 8-2 Over versus AFC opponents and 11-3 Over against losing teams.

Cleveland @ Jacksonville
The Browns are 3-6 ATS versus losing teams, 2-5 ATS on the road with a total of 42½ to 45 points and just 2-4 ATS as road favorites since 1992. Cleveland is 24-12 Over as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points and 5-1 Over as road favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, but 9-2 Under versus losing teams. The Jaguars are 12-24 ATS overall, 4-15 ATS as dogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 12-23 Overall as an underdog, 6-15 ATS as a home dog of 3½ to 7 points, 3-13 overall at home, 11-20 ATS on grass, 4-8 ATS versus winning teams and 13-21 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points. Jacksonville 14-8 Over as home dogs of 3½ to 7 points, but 11-6 Under at home and 17-11 Under versus AFC opponents.

Seattle @ St Louis
The Seahawks are 29-13 ATS overall, 20-12 ATS favorites, 12-4 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 12-7 ATS on the road, 22-9 ATS versus NFC opponents and 21-11 ATS on turf, but 29-54 ATS in October. Seattle is 24-12 Over on the road when the total is 42½ to 45 points. The Rams are 17-33 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points, 54-74 ATS versus divisional opponents and 51-74 versus winning teams. St Louis is 12-7 Over with a total of 42½ to 49 points, 15-8 Over under a dome, 9-1 Over after 2 or more consecutive losses and 8-3 Over in weeks 5 through 9. In this series St Louis is 3-1 ATS the last 4 meetings and all 4 games went Under the total.

Carolina @ Green Bay
The Panthers are 6-1 ATS as dogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 12-7 ATS overall as underdogs, 29-19 ATS as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points including 6-0 lately, 62-41 ATS when the total is 42½ to 49 points, 18-10 ATS versus NFC opponents, 18-11 ATS on grass, 8-3 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 and 4-0 ATS versus NFC North opponents. Carolina is 18-12 Under playing on grass, 17-11 Under versus NFC opponents, but 5-2 Over as dogs of 3½ to 9½ points. The Packers are 17-10 ATS as favorites including 3-0 this year, 18-12 ATS at home with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 8-3 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, but 10-16 ATS versus NFC South opponents. Green Bay is 5-1 Over the total this year. In this series 4 of the last 5 meetings in Green Bay have gone Over the total.

Atlanta @ Baltimore
The Falcons are 12-17 ATS on turf and 10-15 ATS versus AFC North opponents. Atlanta is 34-24 Under as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points including 4-0 lately and 10-4 Under when the total is 49½ or more. The Ravens are 25-12 ATS as home favorites 3½ to 7 points and 7-3 ATS versus NFC opponents, but 3-6 ATS in weeks 5 through 9. Baltimore is 12-5 Under playing on turf. In this series 3 of the last 4 have gone Under the total.

Minnesota @ Buffalo
The Vikings are 17-12 ATS underdogs and 6-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses, but 9-16 ATS versus AFC East opponents and 3-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9. Minnesota is 32-22 Over as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points and 6-2 Over off 2 or more consecutive losses, but 8-4 Under after a divisional game. The Bills are 11-6 ATS at home, 5-1 ATS off a divisional loss and 2-0 ATS versus NFC North. Buffalo is 5-1 Under in all games this year and 16-11 Under at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points.

New Orleans @ Detroit
The Saints are 7-14 ATS on the road, 1-5 ATS on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points, but they’re 28-22 ATS versus NFC North opponents including 2-0 lately. New Orleans is 4-1 Over this year, 24-14 Over on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 33-19 Over versus NFC North opponents, but they’re 8-4 Under off a divisional game and 7-1 Under off a divisional win. The Lions are 15-22 ATS overall, 7-11 ATS at home, 7-15 ATS under a dome, 9-15 ATS on turf, 21-32 ATS after a divisional win and 0-3 ATS versus NFC South opponents. Detroit is 5-1 Under this year and 3-0 Under versus NFC South opponents, but 21-14 Over as home favorites of 3 points or less and 17-11 Over when the total is 42½ to 49 points. In this series New Orleans is 7-3 straight up and ATS the last 10 meetings.

Kansas City @ San Diego
The Chiefs are 4-8 ATS dogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 1-5 ATS road dogs of 3½ to 7 points and 12-17 ATS versus AFC opponents. Kansas City is 21-14 Over on the road with a total of 42½ to 45 points, but 16-11 Under coming off a bye week. The Chargers are 29-20 ATS favorites of 3½ to 7 points including 4-0 lately, 17-11 ATS versus AFC opponents, 63-43 ATS off 2 or more comsecutive wins and 6-3 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points. In this series San Diego is 3-1 ATS the last 4 and all 4 of those games went Over the total.

NY Giants @ Dallas
The Giants are 7-3 ATS playing in October, 34-24 ATS as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points and 21-13 ATS on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points. New York is 23-15 Under overall, 13-6 Under on the road, 25-11 Under on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points, 19-10 Under versus NFC opponents, 10-1 Under versus winning teams, but 38-25 Over off a divisional win including 5-1 lately. The Cowboys are 6-13 ATS as favorites, 7-12 ATS at home and 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, but they’re 7-3 ATS playing in October. Dallas is 7-1 Over after 2 or more consecutive wins. In this series Dallas is 3-1 ATS the last 4 meetings with 3 of the 4 going Over the total.

Arizona @ Oakland
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS as road favorites of 3½ to 7 points, 3-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 and 9-19 ATS versus AFC West opponents, but they’re slao 10-5 ATS with a total of 42½ to 49 points and 8-4 versus losing teams. Arizona is 4-1 Under as road favorites of 3½ to 7 points, but 19-9 Over versus AFC West opponents, 52-34 Over versus AFC opponents and 6-2 Over on grass. The Raiders are 9-14 ATS as home dogs of 3½ to 7 points, 6-11 ATs at home overall and 48-70 ATS off a divisional game. Oakland is 8-2 Under after a divisional game and 6-1 Under after a divisional loss, but 20-14 Over at home when the total is 42½ to 45 points. In this series Oakland is 4-1 ATS the last 5 and 4 o the 5 went Over the total.

San Francisco @ Denver
The 49ers are 27-16 ATS overall, 15-6 ATS on the road, 8-4 ATS off a divisional game, 17-10 ATS playing on grass, 8-2 ATS in October and 8-2 ATS versus AFC opponents. San Francisco is 26-12 Over after Monday night football and 13-8 Over after 2 or more consecutive wins. The Broncos are 18-6 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 24-15 ATS overall, 23-11 ATS as favorites, 13-7 ATS at home and 20-8 ATS playing on grass. Denver is 85-54 Over as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 148-97 Over as favorites, 111-72 Over at home, 20-8 Over versus NFC West opponents, 59-34 Over versus NFC opponents, 99-51 Over against winning teams and 58-34 Over in weeks 5 through 9 including 9-1 lately.

Houston @ Pittsburgh
The Texans are 6-10 ATS as dogs, 1-6 ATS on Monday night football and 21-31 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, but 39-24 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses and 24-18 ATS off a divisional loss. Houston is 17-10 Under versus AFC North opponents. The Steelers are 14-20 ATS as home favorites of 3 points or less and 11-17 ATS versus AFC South opponents, but they’re also 14-9 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points, 20-14 ATS on Monday night football and 51-32 ATS playing in October. Pittsburgh is 24-14 Over as home favorites of 3 points or less and 8-4 Over after a divisional game, but 17-11 Under versus AFC opponents and 9-2 Under in weeks 5 through 9. In this series 3 of the last 4 meetings ahve gone Over the total

NFL Trends & Angles
Insiderangles.com

Week 6 will go down as the week of the Pick Six, as the Broncos, Cardinals and 49ers all returned interceptions for touchdowns in the final minute. All three of those interception returns turned ‘unders’ into ‘overs’ and the first two affected the spreads to the disadvantage of the sportsbooks especially the Broncos.

The final tally for the week was only favorites 8, underdogs 7, but the more heavily bet plays went the way of the public this past week. The tale of the tape for the season now has the favorites slightly ahead at 45-43-3 ATS overall, so the books have done a great job as usual as neither side has been profitable. Looking at totals, the ‘over’ is starting to pull away a bit at 50-41, 54.6 percent for the year.

Meanwhile it was a very nondescript week for our NFL Trends & Angles, as we had six angles in all with two of them producing winning records, two of them losing and two splitting.

Now on to Week 7, and those of you that have followed us in the past know that the majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature and not for the feint of heart, as many of them will point to live underdogs and live ‘unders’.

The records for all of our angles will only go back to 2005 going forward the rest of the year as that gives us a large enough sampling for full-season trends without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Finally, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. As a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively, but rather, Good Teams are strictly defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games straight up.

We only have five angles this week, as two of the angles from last week have no qualifiers this week, and we have just one new angle that has been successful in the past. So here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 7, with all records being for the last nine seasons since 2005 plus the first six weeks of this year.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (158-96-5, 62.2% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: Kansas City +4 and New York Giants +6½.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (200-140-6, 58.8% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Carolina +7, Kansas City +4 and New York Giants +6½.

Play against any home favorite of -3 or more that was an underdog in each of its last three games (62-40, 60.8% ATS): This is an oldie but goodie that we have used in one form or another in every sport that we do, be it professional or college. Teams that have been underdogs in their last three games in a row are often not very good teams, and when these clubs are suddenly cast in the favored role, they have tended to wilt under the pressure of now being expected to win. Qualifiers: Miami +3 vs. Chicago.

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

NFL USER TREND:

The Lions are 20-1 OU since October 2000 after a game where they allowed less than 21 points and punted at least seven times.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

The Ravens are 10-0-1 ATS (9.4 ppg) since 2008 when their last game went over the total by at least 14 points and they are not 6+ point dogs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Jaguars are 0-11 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since September 30, 2012 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

The Broncos are 9-0 OU (9.0 ppg) since October 7, 2012 after a win in which Demaryius Thomas had a reception of 40+ yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Titans are 10-0 OU (12.7 ppg) since October 29, 2001 as a road dog when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

Teams that allowed at least 18.75 points less than expected last game are 68-45-5 ATS. Active on Detroit.

NFL O/U TREND:

The Jaguars are 0-10 OU (-11.0 ppg) since October 16, 2011 after a loss where they had a rushing touchdown.