NFL "TRUE STEAM" FINAL WK
By vegas-runner
Allright fellas, it's New Year's Day and I'd like to wish you all a very Happy & Healthy New Year ahead...With nothing but enjoyment, and prosperity for you and your family...I got up real early this morning...and am looking forward to watching some Bowl Games before getting ready for the Weekend ahead and getting some rest as well...But I promised you that I would make sure to take the time out...to gather the information on "Early Moves" and get them out in a Blog...Because the Final Week of the NFL Season is like no other, and I know that you were looking forward to my "TRUE STEAM" for Week 17...
And there was just no way that I was going to let you down...Especially since you have all shown nothing but support throughout the entire football season...I know how much you look forward to the information, and I know that many use it for their own handicapping...So for that, I'm honored...And I will continue to try and pass along the most "accurate" information about the betting market that I possibly can...
What I decided to do for the Final Week...since it is just so much different than any other...Is go over "ALL" of the "Early Moves"...and define them for you...So that you can know for sure, what's behind the "Line Move" to date...Then you can monitor them from here on out, and draw your conclusions much easier...
You have to realize that the oddsmakers adjust for "Must Win" situations...And that don't mean those MustWins won't cover...But you do have to know going in that you are not getting any "Line Value"...And instead you are getting the worst of it because you are paying a premium for that "Must Win" team...
Many times, these situations are what's behind the "Line Moves"...And other times, the "Moves" are based on what the sportsbooks have pending...And more importantly, other times it's based on the fact the "Playoff Picture" changes as earlier games go final...And other times, it's based on weather, injury, ect...And finally, it's many times due to "Steam"...
So I won't isolate a "Best Bet" for this week...Because I like to wait until game-day to finalize my positions...But I will go ahead and let you know what "Early Moves" are "TRUE STEAM"...and which aren't...VR
(Because we are doing EVERY game...I will get to the bottom line, and indentify/define the "move"...Rather than analyze how the Wiseguys took their positions, and how the sportsbooks then reacted...like we usually do, since they aren't all "Steam")
NFL WEEK 17 : "LINE MOVES"
1.) IND at BUF The Wiseguys Steamed the BILLS -6 as soon as the line came out, all the way UP to -9...They also Steamed the UNDER...Books so far say that the "Betting Public" is going the other way on BOTH, the Side & Total...Taking Indy & Over...And that money just may out-weigh the Wiseguy money as we approach kick-off.
2.) NO at CAR It's "FRIDAY" and the books aren't willing to put up a Betting Line, not even in a "Circle"...That shows how fearful they are of the Wiseguys...and how little confidence they have in their oddsmakers.
3.) JAX at CLE The line opened -2.5, and this "move" is based on "air" and not money....Looks like the books are trying to stay ahead of the anticipated heavy "Public Money" that will be bet on JAX...Because the Wiseguys left it alone when it opened, and I haven't heard of any group behind that move...The Total is another story, the Wiseguys Steamed the UNDER...while the :Public" is expected to go Over.
4.) PHI at DAL Wiseguys have not attempted to take any position...There has not been any opportunity to lay -2.5 or take +3.5, so they will probably sit this out...We may see the "Vig" move, but this shouldn't come off the "Key Number" or "3"...Looks like the "Public" like the Philly side, even on the ML...according to some books...The Wiseguys went UNDER immediately, but the books expect to get balance because they expect the "Public Money" will come in on the Over.
5.) CHI at DET This is an example of the Wiseguys just letting the books know that this line should be "3"...Because they were willing to lay -2.5, but that's NOT Steam...That's just a "Value Bet" that they will make...And if they saw any 3.5's, then they would have grabbed that also...The books don't want to go there but they are expecting to get a lot of pressure from "Public Money" as game-day approaches and we just may see it...The Total hasn't moved at all.
6.) NE at HOU The Wiseguys were willing to lay the "Key Number" of "7"...after they laid -6.5, where they could fine it with the TEXANS...This shows you just how much respect they demand, because the "Public" is expected to come in heavy on the Pats...No real move on the Total, just a slight 1/2 pt adjustment upwards...Which I'm sure is based on "anticipated action" more than anything else.
7.) PIT at MIA "No Move" CIN at by the Wiseguys for this game...But the "Public" has forced the books to adjust the "Vig" on the Steelers...And that "Public Money" is expected to continue coming in on the Steelers...The most we should see is more "Vig", because if they come off of "3"...the Wiseguys will be tempted to get involved..."No Move" on the Total.
8.) NYG at MIN The "Public Money" is expected to come in on the Dog (NYG) and Over...The Wiseguys haven't gotten invloved at all, and the books have not had to adjust their "Opening Numbers".
9.) CIN at NYJ The Wiseguys Steamed the "Key Number" of "7"...And then from there, came back and Steamed the NY JETS again and have forced the books to adjust all the way up to "10"...Even though they expect the "Public" to back the Bengals..."Middle Opportunity" is there for the taking...I'm interested to see if the Outfits take it...The Wiseguys also Steamed the UNDER, which will balance the books because the "Public" is expected to bet Over...Again though, the books adjusted the Total for that Steam.
10.) SF at STL The books have not had to make any adjustments, to the Side or Total for this game...The Wiseguys haven't looked to take any positions, and since it's on the "Key Number" of "7"...the books should only have to adjust the "Vig" for any "Public Money", which is expected to come in on the 49ers...The Total isn't getting much action at all, and has yet to move off the "Opener".
11.) ATL at TB The sportsbooks are going to be forced to take a "Position" on this game...and even gave up a "Middle" attempt, to the Outfits...who have ATL +1 and TBAY +3...Their main "Position" is on ATL, and with the "Public" expected to bet ATL too...the sportsbooks will be forced to hope that the oddsmakers were right...There hasn't been much movement on the Total, but the books are expecting Over money which is why we've seen a 1/2 Pt move.
12.) GB at ARZ The books have come off the "Key Number" of "3"...and gone to -3.5 on the Cards...But if you look closely, you will notice that the "Vig" was already adjusted on "3"...And now it's been adjusted on "3.5" also...This assures us that it's not "Steam"...And the books that I spoke with all expect to need the Arizona side on Sunday...The Wiseguys have "Steamed" the UNDER, which forced the adjustment downwards on the Total...even though the "Public" will be on the Over.
13.) KC at DEN The Wiseguys have worked a "Middle" on this game, and do not have a "True Position"...In fact, what they did was lay -11 on DEN, then take +13 on KC...And it will sit at 12 for now at most shops because the Outfits got off the game...The "Public" is expected to take the points with KC for this game...The Outfits also bet some UNDER 39, but stopped when it got to the "Key Number" of 38..."Public" is expected to bet Over.
14.) BAL at OAK The books will be forced to take a position again because the Wiseguys and the "Public" are on the RAVENS...The books have adjusted some, but don't be surprised if they "move" it some more...They are going to want to defend the "Middle" as long as possible but more Ravens pressure will force them to open up...No "Move" on the Total.
15.) WAS at SD The books just hung up a bad number here...Because they rushed to lower it all the way from as high as "8"...all the way to a low of "3"...With the Wiseguys buying up REDSKINS the whole way...To add insult to injury, they then came back and laid -3 for some money on SD...trying to nail a "Middle"...The books are hoping that the "Public" can bail them out some, if they bet SD as expected...The Outfits also "Steamed" the UNDER.
16.) TEN at SEA The Wiseguys "Steamed" the Dog (SEA) +5.5 and then again at +4.5...which is why we are now looking at a line of 4...The books expect the "Public" will bail them out by betting Tenn on Sunday, but they will be forced to take a "Position" on the Total...Because the Outfits and the "Public" is on the OVER...And the line's gone from 43.5 to 45 already.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
Week 17 of the NFL season can be both fun and stressful equally at the same time for Las Vegas bookmakers. With all the jumbled scenarios of what games mean to each team in regards to making the playoffs or not, it takes a real keen eye to follow and handle all situations laid before them. At the same time, the rush of the instantaneous action can be exhilarating -- validating the reasons many behind the counter got into the business.
There is a dilemma facing each Sports Book this week regarding when to put up some of the games that may appear meaningless and what number to use. Wednesday is usually a day when most books send in their parlay card numbers to the presses. This week, many books will be leaving off a few games on the cards just because of the uncertainty of who will play and for how long.
The three teams that have nothing to play for while getting ready for the playoffs are the Colts, Saints, and Chargers. The Chargers line opened up -3.5 over the Redskins on Monday, but the Colts-Bills and Saints-Panthers games were left off the board at most Las Vegas books.
On Wednesday, Station Casinos Sports Books tested the waters with the only lines in town on the later two games with circle game limits and the spreads went soaring.
Stations opened the Bills a home 6-point favorite against the Colts and the line immediately jumped to eight before settling at 7.5. Las Vegas Sports Consultants had suggested a preliminary line of Bills minus-3.5, but Stations opted to go higher as hunch that the public and Sharps may think that line too generous based on what we all saw last week against the Jets.
Peyton Manning will surely start the game to keep his consecutive-start streak going, but the main question is just how long will he play. It’s amazing that the Colts organization feels an obligation to keep Manning’s personal streak alive, yet they selfishly pulled Manning from a lead in the third quarter of a game during an undefeated season in Week 16. Let’s be real, like Manning wouldn’t have enjoyed an undefeated possibility on his resume.
The Saints visit the red-hot Panthers this week where Carolina was initially installed as a 4.5-point favorite at Stations. The line quickly ran up the ladder to seven because of the low limits and has remained there with little takers on the Saints because of the likelihood that Mark Brunell will be quarterbacking most of the game for Drew Brees.
Station Casinos is not known for being an aggressive Book, but yet they remain the only book through Wednesday to have taken action on those two games. The reason for offering the lines stems from them analyzing the type of action they got and whether or not to use the settled lines on their parlay cards.
Even if they were to take several limited wagers of $2,000 on each move up the ladder, the risk pales in comparison to what the risk may have been on the parlay cards had they offered a bad line which would have remained set through Sunday’s games.
A place like Station Casinos does more volume than anyone in the city on their parlay cards and it’s an intricate part of their business. Their players rely on having the ability to wager on every game possible on their cards and Stations makes every attempt possible just to ensure return visits. Not having a couple games on their card isn’t something they want, so throwing a few flares out to test the waters on the games is the strategy here.
By doing so, they have set the standard for the entire Sports Book world to follow suit with a number despite the uncertainty. The market has been set, but there still aren’t many books following -- most likely waiting for more information of the games in regards to playing time for the starters.
A few moves from the Monday openers include the Browns moving from pick to 1.5-point favorites. The Vikings opened as 8.5-point favorites to the Giants and have been bet up to nine in a game Minnesota must have to avoid possibly ending up playing during Wild Card weekend. The 49ers have dropped from 7.5-point favorites to seven at St. Louis and the Falcons have fallen from the opener of three to 2.5 at Tampa Bay.
The Broncos have 10 different ways to make the playoffs, but none of the scenarios have them being able to take care of business by themselves. Denver opened a 13-point home favorite against the Chiefs and has dropped to 12.5 with many having thoughts of Denver’s lackluster loss to Oakland as a 14-point favorite two weeks ago.