3 BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL / Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings . 1:00pm ET
I bought three points on under the total (46 with 3 point buy) for this game. It is my only play of the day. It falls in a system that is 92% over 18 years. See the three prong confirmation data below. 8)
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KING CREOLE | NFL Total Sun, 12/13/09
triple-dime bet 107 CIN / 108 MIN Under 43.0 betus
Analysis:
3 BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL / Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings . 1:00pm ET
2** UNDER the TOTAL / Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts / 1:00pm ET
2*** UNDER the TOTAL / Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars / 1:00pm ET
I visited our ‘Domer Homer’ set that was created in the Playbook database
last night, and it revealed that all all Dome HOME FAVS had gone 3-9 O/U
since November 1st. I decided to run a query since there are four indoor
games on the week 14 schedule. And it looks like some “UNDER”-whelming
results are in order... depending on the point spread and the opponent.
6-21-2 O/U since 1991: All Game 12 or greater Dome Home non-division
favorites of 6 > points. If these Indoor HOST are taking on an opponent off a
SU win, the results improve to an almost PERFECT 1-11 O/U in the last 18
years. The two teams that are active in this 92% Under Systems are the
MINNESOTA VIKINGS and INDIANAPOLIS COLTS.
Game One:
In BOTH of our Best Bets, the OU line is alrea~dy coming down off the
opening number. so get in ASAP! Both games also feature GREAT teams
(.666 >) squaring off against each other. And that’s where we started our
querying this week:
1-8 O/U L10Y (0-4 O/U THIS decade) for all GAME 13 > home favs of 4
> points with a W/L percentage of .800 > (Vikings)... facing an opponent
with a W/L percentage of .666 > (Bengals).
Cincinnati comes in off BB wins, but they lost the cash (ATS) in both of em.
1-9 O/U S’2003: All road teams off BB SU wins but BB ATS losses (last vs
non-div opp).
In those 2 wins, they rushed the ball an amazing 44 and 45 times respectively.
0-7 O/U last 22 years: All NFL teams off BB wins in which they rushed the ball
44 > times... when the OU line is 36 > points.
The Bengals actually come in on a 3-game ATS losing streak.
0-6 O/U L2Y: All GAME 10 > non-division dogs of 6 > pts playng off BBB ATS
losses.
Minnesota’s 4-game winning streak finally came to an end of Sunday night
(lost 30-17 to Arizona). 1-9 O/U L3Y: All home favs of 3 > pts playing off a
SU loss which broke a 4+ game winning streak.
Vikings laid -3.5 pts on the road in that game, and LOST by double digits.
0-6 O/U L5Y: All favs of 12 pts in
which they were a fav of -3 > pts.
Let’s wrap up this Best Bet with a hot OU pattern that’s gone a PERFECT
0-6 O/U in the last 8 weeks:
All NFC home favs of -5 > points taking on an AFC opponent. Look for a
LOT of running plays in this one. Tick.. tick.. tick!
Game Two:
This is the only other game this week that features two OUTSTANDING
teams taking on each other. Since we’re on the ‘UNDER’ in the first game,
it would be smart to play the other one as well.
0-4 O/U since 2000: Gm 13 > HF’s of 4 > pts with a .800 > winning % (Colts)
vs an opponent with a winning % of .666 > (Broncos).
It looks like the Broncos are BACK in business, with wins of 20 and 31 points
in their last 2 games. Sunday’s division win over Kansas City featured 245
rushing yards on 45 attempts. That puts them in solid “UNDER” territory.
5-18 O/U s’1988: All non-division road teams off a SU road win in which they
ran for 200 > yards. If they were a FAV in that last win, the numbers improve to
2-11 O/U.
So far this year, NFL teams that ran the ball 45 or more times in a ROAD win
have gone a PERFECT 0-3 O/U in their next game.
Playing in the 2nd of BB road games off a division win has produced a high
percentage of low-scoring results.
1-10 O/U L6Y: All road teams playing off a SUATS divison road favorite win,
when the OU lines is 48 UNDEFEATED home teams against a
non-division opponent.
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Game 107-108: Cincinnati at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.952; Minnesota 144.972
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 46
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Over
I BOUGHT THREE POINTS SINCE DUNKEL HAS THE LINE AT 46 (-180)
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OU TrendsCincinnati
Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games in Week 14.
Under is 10-1 in Bengals last 11 games in December.
Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 games as a road underdog.
ALL HOT TRENDS ABOVE THAT WERE IN RED
COLDER TRENDS BELOW
Under is 9-3 in Bengals last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 24-9 in Bengals last 33 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 5-2 in Bengals last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Bengals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 15-7 in Bengals last 22 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 35-17-1 in Bengals last 53 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Minnesota
Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games in Week 14.
Over is 5-1-1 in Vikings last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Vikings last 6 games in December.
Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
ALL HOT TRENDS ABOVE THAT WERE IN RED
COLDER TRENDS BELOW
Over is 7-3 in Vikings last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 34-16-3 in Vikings last 53 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 35-17-3 in Vikings last 55 games following a ATS loss.
8)