NFL Undervalued and Overvalued teams
By: Michael Hill
Through four weeks of the season, let’s take a look at which teams have been undervalued and which have been overvalued based on how they performed a year ago. We’ll start with those that have not been given enough respect. Among the group of eight teams that have winning ATS records are five of the worst eight teams SU from a year ago, all of whom finished in last place in their respective divisions:
2009
St. Louis: 1-15 SU, 7-9 ATS
Detroit: 2-14 SU, 4-10-2 ATS
Kansas City: 4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS
Washington: 4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS
Cleveland: 5-11 SU, 10-6 ATS
TOTAL: 16-64 SU (20%), 34-43-3 ATS (44%)
As you can see, with the exception of the Browns, these division-cellar dwellers were sub-.500 ATS as well. Since preseason and early season prognostications are largely based on previous year performance, it stands to reason that these teams have not been given much respect by oddsmakers to start the season. Not only have these five teams been outstanding ATS, they have shown real improvement SU as well. Here is how these teams stack up at the moment:
Kansas City: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS
St. Louis: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS
Detroit : 0-4 SU, 3-1 ATS
Washington: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Cleveland: 1-3 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
TOTAL: 8-11 SU (42%), 13-4-2 ATS (74%)
It is clear that all of these teams have improved, but it still early enough in the season where they could continue to be undervalued. Four of the five are underdogs this week. The only favorite is Detroit (-3), who will go head-to-head with St. Louis at Ford Field. Despite their 0-4 record SU, the Lions have gone down to the wire against Chicago, Philadelphia and Green Bay.
Kansas City, the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 3-0, is an 8-point underdog at Indianapolis this Sunday. Keep in mind that Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel coached up a New England defense that flummoxed Peyton Manning time and time again as the Patriots collected their three Lombardi trophies. Similarly, offensive coordinator Charlie Weis was the mastermind of the New England offense which found ways to counter the Colts’ vaunted pass rush.
Washington and Cleveland are both home underdogs in Week 5. The ‘Skins are getting 2.5 points from Green Bay while the Browns are a 3-point dog against Atlanta. The Packers have already lost once as a road favorite (in Chicago), as have the Falcons (in Pittsburgh). Home ‘dogs have been very successful so far in 2010, standing at 16-9-1 (63%) ATS and 14-12 SU, making the Redskins and Browns especially attractive options.
Now let’s look at the teams that have been overvalued as a result of their accomplishments of a year ago. Five of the six NFC playoff teams from last year are among the eight teams that are sub-.500 ATS so far this year:
Arizona: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
Philadelphia: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
New Orleans: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
Dallas: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
Minnesota: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
TOTAL: 9-9 SU (50%), 5-13 (28%) ATS
Two of these squads will face off this week when New Orleans travels to Arizona. The Saints have yet to score more than 25 points this season after doing so in 12 of their first 13 games a year ago. In its 19 games last year (including playoffs), the Saints scored 30-plus on 12 occasions, including five games in which they scored over 40.
Dallas is laying 6.5 at home against Tennessee (2-2 ATS and SU), who aced its first road test of the year in a 29-10 win over the New York Giants in Week 3.
Philadelphia, without Michael Vick, is a 3-point underdog at San Francisco as the 0-4 49ers look for their first SU win of the season (2-2 ATS).
Minnesota, who will hope to receive a boost with the addition of Randy Moss, is a 4-point road ‘dog against the streaking New York Jets on Monday night. The Jets are 3-1 both ATS and SU.