NFL: Vegas Money Moves - Week 17

Vegas Money Moves - Week 17
December 30, 2017
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
SVegas Money Moves - Week 17
December 30, 2017
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It's the final weekend of the NFL's regular season and six teams are still vying for one of the final three Wild Card entries. Some teams are trying to improve their positions and get as many home field games in the playoffs as possible, some teams have been eliminated and others are resting players with their playoff position set. It's in those games with players being rested that poses the biggest headache for Nevada bookmakers.

"It's a tricky week," MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood said about the annual Week 17 dilemma. "Games with zero implications, we put a circle on the game (half limit), but for most of our house players, those limits dont mean anything."

Rood says half of his NFL games posted this week have a circle attached.

"I think with everyone scoreboard watching, we're going to have some interesting halftime lines," he said.

Just because a team has to win, doesn't mean they're good enough to do it. And just because a team rests its players doesn't mean the back-ups are going to tank. For the teams that have nothing to play for at all, don't count them out, either. These guys are all pros and have jobs to do. They need to look good on film for future job security. They can't afford to look bad.

The game that took center stage this week was the Rams opening as 6.5-point home favorites against the 49ers. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the first number last Sunday night before the Eagles win against the Raiders on Monday night. Bettors immediately jumped on the 49ers figuring the Rams would rest with not much to gain. The Westgate dropped the Rams to -3.5 on Christmas Day. It was pick 'em by Wednesday and by Friday it was the 49ers -4.

"Overall action so far has been light," Rood said Saturday afternoon. "The only game moving real aggressively has been the 49ers. We're going to need the Rams pretty good. It's our biggest decision of the week."

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Rood had opened the Rams -4 on Monday morning with expectations that quarterback Jared Goof and running back Todd Gurley, two legitimate MVP candidates, would be playing. Both were officially declared 'out' on Wednesday. Let's call Goff worth six-points -- relative to his back-up Sean Mannion -- and let's call Gurley worth two-points, the highest rating for a RB, along with Ezekiel Elliott, in the NFL.

The 49ers have been red hot with QB Jimmy Garoppolo winning all four of his starts. They don't want the season to end. They've also covered the last four meetings with the Rams, including the Rams 41-39 win back in September. However, something to chew on: the 49ers have lost their last eight games when favored.

The Chiefs are also resting key personnel with nothing to gain in Week 17. That means QB Alex Smith and wide receiver Tyreek Hill are 'out' and tight end Travis Kelce is 'doubtful' to play. Rookie QB Patrick Mahomes gets the starting nod and will take the first NFL snaps of his career.

"We opened Denver -3.5 and have taken lost of parlay money on them, but our move up to -4 was just staying in line with the market," Rood said.

The Broncos are starting QB Paxton Lynch to give their former No. 1 draft pick him one last look before making a decision on where he fits in, if at all in Denver's future plans. If Trevor Siemian was starting at home for this one, a Broncos play would be wise. But Lynch is a disaster, so be careful here.

The Eagles have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have no reason to play anyone of major value when Dallas visits.

"We've seen lots of Cowboys action so far," said Rood who has Dallas posted at -3 -120, "but mostly from non-sharp players."

The Redskins go into MetLife Stadium to face the Giants with each team having nothing to prove. It's been a disappointment for each team, but the public has a side they like here. "The Redskins (-3 -120) have taken one-sided action, both large and small money siding with them," Rood said.

The Chargers are outide looking in to the playoffs, but still alive. They need to win at home against the Raiders, get the Titans to lose and have the Ravens win.

"We've had good two-way action on the Chargers-Raiders game," Rood said. "Nothing getting us over-extended; Raiders volume has been at 3-to-2 on parlays and 2-to-1 on straight bets."

Raiders money took all the +8 and +7.5s leaving most sitting with the Chargers -7.

"Atlanta-Carolina is split, there's been lots of (public) money on the Saints and the bridge-jumpers have been laying the Patriots money-line," Rood said.

A bridge-jumper is someone who lays the big price of a "can't lose situation" and the side loses. The term bridge-jumper first came about with those who placed a wager to show on a massive horse-racing favorite and then the horse runs out. Dam-divers is another popular term here in Las Vegas thanks to our massive Hoover Dam in Boulder City.

Anyway, the Patriots are -1,600 (Bet $1,600 to win $100) on the money-line to win outright (no points) at the Mirage with the Jets (5-10) take-back at +900. All the Patriots have to do to clinch the AFC's No., 1 seed throughout the playoffs is win or have the Steelers lose at home to the Browns. Two years ago the Patriots lost their final two regular season games in a similar situation, except both were on the road at the Jets, 26-20, and at Miami, 20-10. Denver got home field because of the losses and went on to beat the Patriots, in Denver in the AFC title game, and also win the Super Bowl.

Something else for the bridge-jumpers to consider is that Tom Brady is in a funk his past four games where he's tossed just four touchdowns while throwing five interceptions. This isn't the same Brady from last season that won his final 10 games (9-1 ATS) that eventually ended with a Super Bowl win.

When they met at MetLife Stadium in Week 6, the Patriots won 24-17, but failed to cover the nine points. It was the third straight meetings that stayed 'under' and it also made the Jets 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with New England.

The Patriots were as high as -16, but most books around the state have dropped them down to -15 or -15.5. The Jets are starting Bryce Petty again, but something that stands out the most with the Jets is going 9-5-1 ATS. They've been competitive most of the season which is why head coach Todd Bowles got a contract extension.

Here's a look at some sharp and public plays at a few books in Nevada:

Jason McCormick, Station Casinos
Sharp: Buccaneers, Raiders, Dolphins
Public: Saints, Seahawks, Vikings

Jason Simbal, CG Technology
Sharp:Jaguars
Public: 49ers

Marc Nelson, Atlantis Reno
Sharp: Buccaneers, Jaguars, Jets, Browns, 49ers
Public: Falcons, Saints, Jaguars, Raiders, Seahawks

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It's the final weekend of the NFL's regular season and six teams are still vying for one of the final three Wild Card entries. Some teams are trying to improve their positions and get as many home field games in the playoffs as possible, some teams have been eliminated and others are resting players with their playoff position set. It's in those games with players being rested that poses the biggest headache for Nevada bookmakers.

"It's a tricky week," MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood said about the annual Week 17 dilemma. "Games with zero implications, we put a circle on the game (half limit), but for most of our house players, those limits dont mean anything."

Rood says half of his NFL games posted this week have a circle attached.

"I think with everyone scoreboard watching, we're going to have some interesting halftime lines," he said.

Just because a team has to win, doesn't mean they're good enough to do it. And just because a team rests its players doesn't mean the back-ups are going to tank. For the teams that have nothing to play for at all, don't count them out, either. These guys are all pros and have jobs to do. They need to look good on film for future job security. They can't afford to look bad.

The game that took center stage this week was the Rams opening as 6.5-point home favorites against the 49ers. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the first number last Sunday night before the Eagles win against the Raiders on Monday night. Bettors immediately jumped on the 49ers figuring the Rams would rest with not much to gain. The Westgate dropped the Rams to -3.5 on Christmas Day. It was pick 'em by Wednesday and by Friday it was the 49ers -4.

"Overall action so far has been light," Rood said Saturday afternoon. "The only game moving real aggressively has been the 49ers. We're going to need the Rams pretty good. It's our biggest decision of the week."

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Rood had opened the Rams -4 on Monday morning with expectations that quarterback Jared Goof and running back Todd Gurley, two legitimate MVP candidates, would be playing. Both were officially declared 'out' on Wednesday. Let's call Goff worth six-points -- relative to his back-up Sean Mannion -- and let's call Gurley worth two-points, the highest rating for a RB, along with Ezekiel Elliott, in the NFL.

The 49ers have been red hot with QB Jimmy Garoppolo winning all four of his starts. They don't want the season to end. They've also covered the last four meetings with the Rams, including the Rams 41-39 win back in September. However, something to chew on: the 49ers have lost their last eight games when favored.

The Chiefs are also resting key personnel with nothing to gain in Week 17. That means QB Alex Smith and wide receiver Tyreek Hill are 'out' and tight end Travis Kelce is 'doubtful' to play. Rookie QB Patrick Mahomes gets the starting nod and will take the first NFL snaps of his career.

"We opened Denver -3.5 and have taken lost of parlay money on them, but our move up to -4 was just staying in line with the market," Rood said.

The Broncos are starting QB Paxton Lynch to give their former No. 1 draft pick him one last look before making a decision on where he fits in, if at all in Denver's future plans. If Trevor Siemian was starting at home for this one, a Broncos play would be wise. But Lynch is a disaster, so be careful here.

The Eagles have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have no reason to play anyone of major value when Dallas visits.

"We've seen lots of Cowboys action so far," said Rood who has Dallas posted at -3 -120, "but mostly from non-sharp players."

The Redskins go into MetLife Stadium to face the Giants with each team having nothing to prove. It's been a disappointment for each team, but the public has a side they like here. "The Redskins (-3 -120) have taken one-sided action, both large and small money siding with them," Rood said.

The Chargers are outide looking in to the playoffs, but still alive. They need to win at home against the Raiders, get the Titans to lose and have the Ravens win.

"We've had good two-way action on the Chargers-Raiders game," Rood said. "Nothing getting us over-extended; Raiders volume has been at 3-to-2 on parlays and 2-to-1 on straight bets."

Raiders money took all the +8 and +7.5s leaving most sitting with the Chargers -7.

"Atlanta-Carolina is split, there's been lots of (public) money on the Saints and the bridge-jumpers have been laying the Patriots money-line," Rood said.

A bridge-jumper is someone who lays the big price of a "can't lose situation" and the side loses. The term bridge-jumper first came about with those who placed a wager to show on a massive horse-racing favorite and then the horse runs out. Dam-divers is another popular term here in Las Vegas thanks to our massive Hoover Dam in Boulder City.

Anyway, the Patriots are -1,600 (Bet $1,600 to win $100) on the money-line to win outright (no points) at the Mirage with the Jets (5-10) take-back at +900. All the Patriots have to do to clinch the AFC's No., 1 seed throughout the playoffs is win or have the Steelers lose at home to the Browns. Two years ago the Patriots lost their final two regular season games in a similar situation, except both were on the road at the Jets, 26-20, and at Miami, 20-10. Denver got home field because of the losses and went on to beat the Patriots, in Denver in the AFC title game, and also win the Super Bowl.

Something else for the bridge-jumpers to consider is that Tom Brady is in a funk his past four games where he's tossed just four touchdowns while throwing five interceptions. This isn't the same Brady from last season that won his final 10 games (9-1 ATS) that eventually ended with a Super Bowl win.

When they met at MetLife Stadium in Week 6, the Patriots won 24-17, but failed to cover the nine points. It was the third straight meetings that stayed 'under' and it also made the Jets 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with New England.

The Patriots were as high as -16, but most books around the state have dropped them down to -15 or -15.5. The Jets are starting Bryce Petty again, but something that stands out the most with the Jets is going 9-5-1 ATS. They've been competitive most of the season which is why head coach Todd Bowles got a contract extension.

Here's a look at some sharp and public plays at a few books in Nevada:

Jason McCormick, Station Casinos
Sharp: Buccaneers, Raiders, Dolphins
Public: Saints, Seahawks, Vikings

Jason Simbal, CG Technology
Sharp:Jaguars
Public: 49ers

Marc Nelson, Atlantis Reno
Sharp: Buccaneers, Jaguars, Jets, Browns, 49ers
Public: Falcons, Saints, Jaguars, Raiders, Seahawks