Analyzing Week 1 Numbers
By Vic Daniello
Every season I stress to my clients the importance of patience over the first few weeks of the season. Sports betting offers us a unique advantage over the house only because we are able to consider a wide variety of variables before making a decision. Since we enter the season with nothing but speculation we are actually getting our money in at the same disadvantage as any bettor in the casino. Considering the nature of this offseason we can only hope to be placing a week 1 bet with the same confidence as a decent video poker player.
So this year I am going to make the same plea with everybody, and just like every season I will hear stories of my clients going in with guns blazing. Being aware of this, I should at least offer you some advice that could help even the playing field. So this will be part 1 of a group of articles that will hopefully accomplish just that.
In my opinion, the most important aspect of early season wagering is to bundle similar games together. Since we are knowingly placing wagers at a disadvantage, we have to establish a way to spread that risk around. One of the best ways to achieve this goal is by selecting one or two groups of picks that fit certain criteria.
For example, if you were to select every Week 1 underdog of 7 or more points from 1997 to 2009 you would have won nearly 66% of your games with 25 wins and 13 losses.
That is a good statistical example that I am sure you are familiar with, but it isn't as useful when the Week 1 board doesn't feature enough big point-spread underdogs. If we take a look at the opposite side of the spectrum we find a similar pattern which doesn't get nearly as much recognition.
With about a month to go until kickoff, we have four games that are currently listed at 2½-points or less, and a few others that are right on the border. I went back to take a look at what happens when there are four or more games listed under 2½-points in Week 1. Since 1997 this has occurred five times, and the favorite has covered 60% of those games (12-8). If you were to have bet every favorite in each one of those five weeks then you would have had three winning weeks, one losing week, and broken even once.
Since this statistic is only made up of 20 games I wanted to expand the search. If we look at only those first weeks where there have been at least 2 such point spreads on the board, then we end up with 36 results. By betting the favorite in each of those 36 games you would have ended up with the same exact win rate of 60% (21-14-1.)
Underdogs getting seven or more in Week 1
Carolina (+7) at Arizona
Minnesota (+9) at San Diego
Miami (+7) vs. New England
Games with point-spreads of 2½-points or less
Baltimore (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay (-2) vs. Detroit
Atlanta (-2.5) at Chicago
Week 1 Opening Line Report
By Larry Hartstein
The NFL -- world’s most popular league to watch and wager on -- is back Thursday. I’ll drink to that.
While the lockout was annoying, the sides reached a 10-year deal! I’ll drink to that, too.
And when I picture 17 straight weeks of watching up to 10 flat screens at once (for the 1 p.m. ET Sunday games), well, I will definitely drink to that.
Note to editor: The drinking starts after I turn in this column.
On to a stone-cold sober look at this week’s odds and pointspreads…
Not that there was ever any doubt, but Week 1 rams home the point: the NFL is a quarterback’s league.
Besides the Colts-Texans game, which some books took down due to Peyton Manning’s status, this week’s big line moves revolve around QB play, or the perception thereof.
The Cardinals opened as 3- to 5-point favorites over the Panthers. Now they’re laying 7, even 8.
“Kevin Kolb seems to have fit in well with Larry Fitzgerald, and you’ve got Carolina going with Cam Newton, a rookie quarterback,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told Covers.com. “The public likes the Cardinals and the sharps like ‘em too.”
The Las Vegas Hilton opened the Browns as 3-point favorites over the Bengals. Now they’re laying 6.5 all over town.
“I think we have one ticket on the Bengals – I’m serious,” Hilton sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay told Covers.com on Saturday. “And it was for 20 dollars. The guy only risked 20, not 22.”
Cincy, of course, is force-feeding rookie Andy Dalton. Cleveland’s Colt McCoy turned in two outstanding preseason showings.
There was never any doubt about the QB situation in New England, which moved from a 4- to 7-point favorite at Miami. Kornegay said he opened the line at 4 back in April, when the Dolphins appeared to be targeting Kyle Orton or another upgrade over Chad Henne.
Kornegay said he’s written four times as many tickets on the Pats.
“They made some good moves in the offseason and they didn’t really lose too much,” Kornegay said. “And they’ve looked really good [except vs. Detroit]. These two teams definitely went in opposite directions.”
Biggest spread of the week – Vikings at Chargers (-9, 41)
San Diego finished No. 1 in total offense and total defense last season but did not make the playoffs due to comically bad special teams. Every offensive starter except Darren Sproles returns, and that has bettors believing.
“San Diego has been such a public team the last few years,” Stoneback said. “They’ve been far and away the best team in the division the last few years, even though they didn’t win it last year.”
San Diego’s season win total has risen from 10 to 10.5 and bettors are still going over, Stoneback said.
The Chargers started 2-5 SU and ATS last year. It was the fourth straight year San Diego opened 2-3 SU under Norv Turner.
Apparently that’s not enough to concern bettors, who see the Vikings as a team in transition.
Smallest spreads of the week – Lions at Buccaneers (-1.5, 41), Steelers at Ravens (-2.5, 36)
Tampa Bay opened as a 3- to 4-point favorite, but the number plummeted amid the never-ending surge of Lions’ love.
Last Dec. 19, Detroit beat the Bucs 23-20 in overtime in Tampa. The Lions were quarterbacked by third-stringer Drew Stanton – they’ll start Matthew Stafford on Sunday – and were getting 3.5 points. It was one of 12 covers Detroit produced in 2010, including five straight to end the season.
Stoneback said he can envision the Ravens’ line, which he opened at -3 (even), falling further as kickoff approaches. Baltimore hasn’t beaten a Ben Roethlisberger-led Pittsburgh team since 2006.
Biggest total of the week – Saints at Packers (-4, 47)
When MGM Mirage opened this total at 46, the sharps jumped in and bet the over. They’ll be in position to “middle” it if the total keeps rising, say to 48.5. Which is quite possible.
“It’s a Thursday night isolated game, you’ll have a lot of public money, and Monday or Thursday, the public generally bets those ‘Over,’” Stoneback said.
Added Kornegay: “They’re trying to bet it early and hopefully it goes up and they can buy it back [under] later on, or maybe they thought it was just too low for these types of offenses.”
The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers finished 2010 as the best QB in football. The Saints’ Drew Brees looked extremely sharp in preseason, like it was 2009 all over again.
“When the Saints had their starters in [during preseason],” Stoneback said, “they put up a lot of points.”
Nover's NFL Notebook
By Stephen Nover
Welcome to my Week 1 NFL Notebook, a combination of notes, information, vents and opinions.
Let's begin with the Pittsburgh-Baltimore matchup, perhaps the most fiercest of any rivalry. Teaser players may want to note that in the three-year Ravens coaching era of John Harbaugh no game in this rivalry has been decided by more than nine points with six of the last eight being decided by four points or less.
The season, of course, begins Thursday with Green Bay hosting New Orleans. The oddsmaker opened this total too low at 46. The line has climbed to 47 and could get up and above 48 by kickoff with anticipated public money being on the over.
Still, the house may get the last laugh. The Saints aren't going to be passing nearly as much this season. They want to be more balanced and will be after trading up in the first round to get Mark Ingram. Also, neither team figures to be starting in good field position with kickoffs coming from the 35-yard line rather than the 30.
One of the biggest line moves has been on Cleveland. The Browns opened minus three hosting Cincinnati. The line has now reached 6 1/2. The Browns should be improved after consecutive 5-11 seasons under Eric Mangini.
Speaking of Mangini, he'll be an analyst this season for ESPN. That's terrible. Mangini was a media nightmare when he was coaching. He not only never said anything worthwhile but was downright deceptive. He was one of the most boring interviews even by coach-speak standards. ESPN couldn't find anybody more worthy? Heck, bring back Dennis Miller to football. At least he's funny and honest.
Of course the steam on the Bengals-Browns game isn't because of Cleveland's perceived improvement. It's strictly fade material on the Bengals. The MGM may have set the worst regular-season over/under NFL total ever when they opened the Bengals' win total at 7 1/2. The Bengals' win total now is as low as five. This has to be the first time there has been a 2 1/2-game move on an NFL regular season win total.
Congratulations to those Vegas sharps who staked out an early position on the Colts-Texans game by getting down on Houston at less than a field goal. As one of them explained to me, "I thought I had nothing to lose because if Peyton Manning were to play, the Texans still could win. And if Manning were to miss the game, I would by far be getting the best of the line."
That certainly is true. Manning is expected to be sidelined and the Texans currently are nine-point favorites because of that.
Another Vegas sharp is trying to sell me on playing under in the Cowboys-Jets game if the number is less than 41. One of his main selling points is the expected defensive chess match between twin brothers Rex Ryan of the Jets and Rob Ryan, the new defensive coordinator for Dallas.
I point out that the two Ryans went at each other last year when Rob was defensive coordinator of the Browns. The Jets won 26-20 and the total easily went over the posted line of 37. Plus, it could take Rob Ryan time to straighten out Dallas' defense since he's changing systems, has weak safeties and had far less time to work out the kinks and implement things because of the lockout.
Detroit is getting a lot of love. The Lions certainly could be explosive if Matthew Stafford can ever stay healthy. The Lions open on the road against Tampa Bay where they snapped their 27-game road losing streak last year. The Buccaneers' respectable secondary could be vulnerable to Stafford if cornerback Aqib Talib can't play due to a hamstring strain that kept him out of preseason. It's an injury to monitor.
I was at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas this past weekend involved in several high-stakes fantasy football drafts sponsored by the National Fantasy Football Championship. Most of the owners competing were sharp, but there were several clueless ones who in poker terms would be called "Dead Money." These were the ones taking New Orleans kicker Garrett Hartley, who could be out as long as 10 weeks with a hip injury, Jacksonville backup running back Rashard Jennings, who also is injured and out for the season and taking fad picks like Ben Tate and Daniel Thomas way too high. One owner even took wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald with the No. 2 overall pick.
Glad to see more places putting out NFL regular season player propositions. The Caesars Palace properties are taking action on passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards.
My choice for passing yards is Matt Ryan at 12-1. The Falcons are going to be passing a lot more this season making Ryan, not Michael Turner, their offensive cornerstone. Ryan not only has Roddy White to throw to, but also Julio Jones, underrated Harry Douglas (my fantasy sleeper pick) and future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez.
I like Chris Johnson at 8-1 for most rushing yards. Johnson and Adrian Peterson, who is 4-1, are the two best running backs in the NFL especially with Arian Foster slowed by a hamstring injury. A decent middle-shot is Ray Rice at 15-1. The Ravens picked up maybe the best blocking fullback in the league, Vonta Leach, and should give Rice a heavy dose of carries.
As for No. 1 in receiving yards, I'll take a shot with San Diego's Vincent Jackson at 12-1.
Las Vegas NFL Notes
By Micah Roberts
We’ve all been analyzing Week 1 NFL lines posted at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book since April, awaiting for this weekend to finally come and now it’s finally here. The thought of a lockout is a distant memory and while a few have already made their wagers, this week is when the masses will come out to play. It will be like throwing a steak to a starved stray dog.
Visitors will be flying in from all over the country to be a part of the excitement that only a Las Vegas sports book can offer on any Sunday during the football season. Locals begin to alter their normal spring and summer Sunday routines, like going to church or doing yard work earlier to accommodate the Sunday games and watch their action unfold.
The top story of the weekend is whether or not Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning will start Sunday at Houston. Based on the current line of Houston minus-7, it appears the sports books don’t think he will despite no confirmation from the Colts. In the Hilton’s April opening line, the Colts were one-point favorites in this one. There is no player in the NFL -- maybe NFL history -- that has been worth 8 points.
But with Manning, the move is easily justified. He’s everything to that franchise. He’s kept a marginal team in contention to the highest levels almost single handedly the last few seasons.
When Manning is officially ruled out, the starting job will be given to newly acquired veteran Kerry Collins. The Colts never play well in the preseason and part of that is because of Manning’s limited playing time. This year was no different as they went 1-3 and looked awful offensively in each contest. This would be the first regular season start Manning has missed during his entire 14-year career.
One of the other big disparities from the early April line was how far the Bears have fallen out of favor with the bettors. They opened up as one-point home favorites against the Falcons and coming into this weekend, the Falcons are now three-point favorites.
The Cardinals also got a four-point boost with the signing of Kevin Kolb. They opened as three-point favorites against the Panthers and are now laying seven. Arizona still has plenty of issues on defense, but after getting a glimpse of Larry Fitzgerald blossom in the preseason with Kolb slinging it to him relentlessly, they look like they’re going to be one of the more entertaining teams in the league.
The Lions have been respected by many to contend for a playoff spot and that respect is showing through the bet windows as the Buccaneers have dropped from three-point home favorites to 1½-point favorites. The Lions defensive line is going to beat up a lot of opposing quarterbacks this season.
We also get to see how the super-Eagles mesh for four quarters as five-point road favorites at St. Louis. The Rams are an interesting team to look at early on because second-year quarterback Sam Bradford will have a pretty good wide-receiver corps for the first time.
But the public is going to be all over the Eagles. The four-team parlay from the public that will destroy the sports books if it comes in will be the Eagles, Patriots (-7 at Miami), Giants (-3 at Washington) and the Falcons.
For Thursday night’s kickoff game, the sharps have already come in and grabbed the five points with the Saints at Green Bay. It may seem like a dead number, but in the same game last season, the Saints beat the Vikings as five-point favorites, 14-9.
A tip of the cap goes out to the crew at the Hilton for being the first in the world to offer the lines and not have too much of a variance in the numbers and where they eventually settled. The sharps nibbled away at some of the numbers early on while also adjusting the numbers based on preseason performance. It’s pretty sound odds making with a solid forecast on what both the sharps and public would play.
NFL Teasers
One of the best values a sports book offers that isn’t played as much as it should is the two-team six-point NFL teaser. The sharps have been playing them for years, but the public hasn’t jumped all in opting to play more options for less money getting higher returns.
When looking at what the sports books want you to play, you can just look at the limits offered. The lower the limits, the less they want you to play. The limits are based on how they do in each particular category. They’re either low because they don’t get enough two-way action or they’re low because they don’t win consistently enough at it. In the two-team teasers case, it's the latter.
The bulk of the action the sports books get on two-team NFL teasers is sharp action. Some books have completely taken the option away starting their pay chart at three-team teasers. MGM Resort properties had not offered the two-team six-point teasers for seven years, but have recently put the option back on the board at -120 with a $5,000 limit, a very fair price considering most books offer -130.
The value with the teaser simply rests with the NFL line being the most sound line of any sport in the world. There isn’t a more solid number than a pro football game. When you can add six-points to the best line in the world, that is some great value, especially when crossing over key numbers like 3, 7 and 10 when laying or taking the points.
Caesars Palace Rivalry Matchup Props
The Caesars Palace properties will be offering weekly rivalry props putting teams like the Packers and Bears against each all season despite not actually playing each other. A line of the side and total will be set between the two teams and the final score from the game they’re playing that week will be inputted. The Packers are -6½-point favorites against the Bears this week. The Saints are pick’em against the Falcons.
“We wanted NFL fans to have more appeal to the teams they’re rooting for than just the individual games those teams are playing in,” said the Rio’s Todd Fuhrman. “It gives the Packers fan now the opportunity to bet their teams performance against the hated Bears every week. We want to keep the rivalries going all year which is why we’ll also have a weekly line up on the Steelers vs. Ravens all season.“
Other rivalries you can bet all season beginning this week include the Redskins vs. Cowboys (-1 ½), Patriots (-3 ½) vs. Jets, Jets (-2) vs. Giants, and 49ers (-4) vs. Raiders.
Lucky’s Sports Book Grand Opening at the Riviera
Just in time for the first week of the NFL, Lucky’s will be having a Grand Opening party at their new location inside the Riviera this Thursday as the Saints and Packers kickoff the season. Appetizers and drinks will be offered, see you there.
The Linemakers TV Show
This Friday night at 8 pm on HD Theatre, ‘The Linemakers’ TV show will start the first of 26 episodes for that will run through the Super Bowl. A show of this kind was long overdue in this television world we live in where exterminators, bakers, and tow truck drivers have their own shows. What is more interesting than real bookmakers talking about spreads and how the number got to where it is?
The linemakers on the show are a regular who’s who of Las Vegas bookmaking legends starring Jimmy Vaccaro, Vinnie Magliulo, Richie Baccellieri, Lou D’Amico, Rick Herron and Kenny White. The show is hosted by Sports Book Radio’s Brian Blessing.
Beware of false preseason results
By Teddy Covers
In 2010, the San Francisco 49ers were the ‘flavor of the month’ coming out of the preseason. The 49ers went 4-0 in August. Bettors and pundits recognized that the Niners were playing in the weakest division in the NFL – a truly ‘winnable’ NFC West. Their head coach Mike Singletary was on the hotseat; in ‘must win now’ mode. Their defense looked loaded. Their offense, while clearly the weaker side of the football, still looked good enough to succeed. Bettors and fans recognized ‘name’ skill position players like Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Vernon Davis, Ted Ginn Jr. and Michael Crabtree; expecting a decent level of production.
San Francisco took a boatload of money last August. Bettors loaded up with wagers on San Fran going Over their season win total, driving the number up to 8.5 (-160) with a few 9’s popping up in the weeks before opening day. The Niners also took money to win the division, big favorites in the NFC West by the end of August.
On opening day, San Francisco lost 31-6 as road favorites at rebuilding Seattle. They followed that with consecutive losses to the Saints, Chiefs, Falcons and Eagles. By the time the dust settled, the Niners finished 6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS. They escaped the NFC West cellar only because they beat an equally moribund Arizona team in a meaningless Week 17 contest. All the money that was bet on San Francisco Over their season win total and on the Niners to win the division was converted into ‘hold’ for the books.
Kansas City, Indianapolis and Chicago combined to go 1-11 SU in preseason action last year. Their pointspread record wasn’t any better: 1-10-1 ATS if you shopped around and ‘earned’ that push. Bettors seemed convinced that all three squads were poised for disappointing seasons. Chicago was lined at eight wins, and money came on the under. Indy was lined at 10.5 or 11 wins and money came on the under. KC was lined at 6.5 wins and saw two-way action at that price.
The Chiefs won the AFC West. They went 5-1 ATS in their first six games following that preseason debacle, handsomely rewarding their early season supporters. The Bears – not the Packers, as selective memory haunts us – won the NFC North. They went 3-1 ATS as underdogs in the first five weeks of the season. 2-14 Carolina was favored over Chicago last year, and not in Week 1 – it was Week 5! The Colts won the AFC South. They lost at Houston Week 1 and then proceeded to be a pointspread machine all the way into November, suffering only one ATS defeat in their next seven games.
There’s a point I’m trying to make here, and it should be fairly obvious: Don’t overreact to preseason results, especially aggregate preseason results! Let me use St. Louis (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS this August) as example #1. Steve Spagnuolo’s squad faced Indy in Week 1 of the preseason. As described above, and as evidenced by Indy’s truly dismal 5-25 SU, 8-21-1 ATS mark in their last 30 preseason contests, there was no surprise when the Rams won and covered that ballgame.
In Week 2, the Rams trailed their home game against Tennessee 16-7 at halftime. Their lone TD came on a busted coverage from the Titans on the very first play of the game, an 83 yard Brandon Gibson catch and run. Sam Bradford and the rest of the Rams first stringers played the full first half. They did not run a single offensive play in Titans territory. Meanwhile, Tennessee put together three long drives against the St Louis defense. But Thaddeus Lewis and AJ Feeley played fairly well against the Titans backups after halftime and Josh Brown kicked the game winning field goal as time expired in the fourth quarter. St Louis got the SU win, but anyone who paid attention to the game gave credit to Tennessee, not St Louis, for their performance.
In Week 3, the Rams faced Kansas City, another team that (as described above) is not a squad with a history of caring about August wins and losses in the Todd Haley era. The Rams had a pair of long TD drives to open the game, then failed to move the ball for the rest of the half. Rams backers got the money because KC kicker Ryan Succop couldn’t convert a 21-yard chip shot field goal in the closing minutes.
In Week 4, when most coaches rest their starters, coach Spagnuolo put his starters on the field for the entire first quarter, staking the Rams to an early 7-0 lead. They didn’t score again until after halftime, when it was a matchup of third stringers vs. third stringers.
So yes, St Louis had a ‘good’ preseason. It couldn’t be more meaningless when it comes to predicting their potential regular season success or failure. They played the right teams at the right times and had the right second half rallies against the right third string defenders.
Which brings us this year’s ‘Flavor of the Month’, the Detroit Lions. Detroit’s not in the same situation as San Francisco was last year. Head coach Jim Schwartz isn’t on the hot seat like Singletary was in ‘10. Detroit has a quarterback with upside (Matthew Stafford, if he can stay healthy), the antithesis of San Fran’s Alex Smith. They are clearly an improving team.
That being said, bettors have fallen in love with Detroit in a serious way. Money has poured in on the Lions Over 7.5 wins, pushing the total up to 8 in several key locations. We’ve seen Detroit take a boatload of cash for their Week 1 matchup in the heat and humidity of Tampa – the same Bucs team that won ten games last year, missing the playoffs only because of a tiebreaker with Green Bay. In fact, if the Packers didn’t eke out a tight fourth quarter win in Week 17 against a Bears team that had already clinched a first round bye, the Bucs would have been in the playoffs last year and Green Bay would have been sitting home for the playoffs.
But I digress. The point is that the Lions are already sitting at pick ‘em in some spots for that Week 1 game vs. Tampa Bay. They’ve taken significant money to win the division, the NFC and even the Super Bowl. Bettors apparently haven’t noticed Detroit’s recent history.
In 2008, the Lions went 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS in preseason action, while outscoring their opponents by a combined margin of 80-32, the highest point differential in the league that year. They then proceeded to go 0-16 SU in the regular season, the worst team in modern NFL history.
In 2009, Detroit went 3-1 SU in preseason action. They followed that up with a 2-14 campaign, covering only four pointspreads all year. Last year, again, we saw Detroit look good in exhibition season: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS. They were 2-10 by December, before a late season surge improved their record to a ‘respectable’ 6-10 finish.
Detroit is still a very flawed team in at least four areas. Their offensive line hasn’t proven that they can run block or keep injury prone Matthew Stafford upright. Their secondary lacks a single shutdown corner, a unit that has been vulnerable to the big play and the blown lead for the better part of the last decade. They’ve got major concerns on special teams, going with undrafted rookie free agent Ryan Donahue at punter after veteran Nick Harris became a salary cap casualty, and with 41 year old Jason Hanson coming off knee surgery as their kicker. And Detroit really needed rookie second round running back Mikel Leshoure, a training camp injury casualty. They’ll enter the season without a power back to get tough yards between the tackles to convert those 3rd and 1’s.
I haven’t even mentioned Detroit’s schedule yet. They face NINE opponents that won at least ten games last year. And that doesn’t even count two games against the Vikings, one against the Cowboys and one against the 49ers; all of whom should be improved from a season ago.
I’m not saying that Detroit won’t win nine games this year and be one of the ‘surprise’ teams from 2011 when we look back on the season next January. But I am saying that the market for the Lions is white hot right now, and there’s absolutely no value supporting this team in Week1 or on the future board anymore. If you liked Detroit to go Over their win total or to win the division and you didn’t bet it a month ago, you’ve missed your window of opportunity.