NFL Week 1 Betting News and Notes

NFL Week 1's Biggest Line Moves
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Tracking line moves during Week 1 of the NFL season is a different animal than any other week on the schedule.

Most games have had spreads available since the spring and have been influenced by a summer’s worth of stories, injuries and action.

With the 2012 NFL season finally kicking off this week, we dissect the biggest line moves of Week 1 with help of Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Open: Arizona -1, Currently: Seattle -3)

Arizona opened as a slight home favorite but its issues nailing down a starting QB during the preseason pushed a lot of money towards Seattle. Football bettors are banking on the Seahawks, even though they're going with rookie QB Russell Wilson under center for Week 1.

“We’ve taken a boatload of money on Seattle. It’s one of our biggest decisions,” Colbert told Covers. “The Seahawks are going with Wilson, which I think is a good decision but it’s also a question mark. We’re not quite at -3 yet. I don’t think we’ll get there but if we do, people will start buying back on Arizona.”

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Open: New York -6, Currently: New York -3)

A poor performance from New York in the preseason and a growing buzz around Buffalo has sliced this Week 1 spread in half. Cantor’s Las Vegas books opened with the Jets -5.5 and have been bet all the way down to a field goal. And Colbert doesn’t see it stopping there.

“The Bills are one of the sexy teams to start the year,” he says. “They have one of the best defensive lines out there. They’re really good up front. A lot of this depends on (QB Ryan) Fitzpatrick and how he plays. You’re going to see 2.5 on this one. Then you’ll get some buyback on the Jets.”

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (Open: Houston -7, Currently: Houston -11.5)

According to Colbert, this is the biggest decision in terms of one-sided action the favorite for Cantor in Week 1. They opened Houston at -6.5 back in the spring and didn’t take any serious money until the line moved to -9.5.

“It’s all Texans,” says Colbert, who currently has Houston -11. “A lot of this has to do with the Dolphins' quarterback situation, going with (rookie QB Ryan) Tannehill. Some smart guys think Miami is willing to give away a few wins just to build him up and give him time.”

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (Open: New Orleans -11, Currently: New Orleans -9)

In the wake of "Bounty Gate", football bettors have been slowly fading the Saints for their Week 1 date against the Redskins and rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Colbert says there are more bets riding on the dog and understands why.

“I’m not really high on the Saints and I think it’ll hurt them not having (suspended head coach Sean) Payton on the sidelines,” he says. “We’ll know right away what kind of team the Saints are going to be this year. I think 9.5 or 10 points is too many.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (Open: Denver -3, Currently: Pick)

Cantor’s books have gone up and down with this Week 1 spread. They opened Denver -1 and went to Pittsburgh -1 then to Denver -2.5 before settling at Denver -1 again. Some online books are dealing this Sunday Night Football showdown as a pick’em.

“This is a revenge game for the Steelers but they're without James Harrison and Ryan Clark has the sickle cell issue, Mendenhall is hurt. I kind of like Denver,” says Colbert. “This game has been bet pretty even so far but I could see it moving slightly to Denver -2.5.”

Week 1 Preview

Colts @ Bears — Indy has new coach, new QB; they’re glorified expansion team, starting fresh, so they’re trends don’t mean as much, but they did cover four of five LY as double digit underdogs. Colts lost 34-24/34-7 in last two road openers, after having won nine of previous ten. Teams with rookie QBs figure to struggle on foreign soil early on. Chicago won 29-13 at Indy in last meeting in ’08, teams’ only meeting since Colts beat Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Since ’96, underdogs are 13-3 vs spread in Chicago’s home openers, with Bears just 2-8 vs spread as favorite; they’ve won six of last seven home openers, allowing 13.3 ppg last three years. Since 2007, Chicago is just 9-15-1 as home favorites, but they did cover last two tries when laying double digits. Five of Indy’s last seven road openers stayed under total.

Eagles @ Browns — Lot of commonality between coaching staffs; been rough summer off field for Coach Reid. Philly is just 4-6 as road favorite last two years, with six of 11 road wins by 7 or less points. Since being reborn in 1999, Browns are 1-12 in home openers, 1-11-1 vs spread; they were favored/even in five of the 12 losses- they’re 0-7 vs spread in last seven home openers, with under 8-4 in their last 12. 12 of those 13 home openers came in Week 1. Cleveland is 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as home underdog; they’re 3-7-2 vs spread v NFC teams last three years. Philly are 3-0 vs new Browns, scoring 35-34-30 points; they’ve won last three road openers, scoring 31+ points in last four. Since ’88, Philly is 14-8 vs spread in road openers; 6-4 as favorite, 8-4 as dog. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four road openers. Teams met in preseason two weeks ago, but Vick didn’t play.

Bills @ Jets — How will Gang Green utilize Tebow? How will Sanchez react if he struggles early and gets pulled? Fickle home folks could turn ugly if Jets stumble early vs Buffalo squad that lost last five games to Jets by average score of 30-14, losing last two visits here, 38-7/28-24. Bills are 7-3 in last ten tries as road dogs in road openers; since 2000, they’re 3-0 as Week 1 road dog. Buffalo is 12-6 as road underdogs in divisional games last six years. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under the total. Over last 20 years, Jets are 2-8 vs spread as favorite in home opener, losing 14 of 20 (2-1 last three years). Three of their last four home openers stayed under total. Jets covered five of last six season openers; since 2007, they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a home favorite in divisional games. Bills trading for Tarvaris Jackson raised some eyebrows.

Redskins @ Saints — Lot of unusual variables here. How will Saints function without Payton/Vitt on sidelines? Who will make key 4th down calls? Redskins using rookie QB in hostile environment; tough way to start. Washington won its last six visits to New Orleans, with last visit in ’06. Road team won six of last seven series games. New Orleans won four in row and 11 of last 14 home openers, scoring 28.3 ppg in last four; they’re 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine as favorite in home openers, with 11 of last 15 staying under total. New Orleans won last five Sunday openers. Washington lost nine of last 12 road openers, losing last four, scoring 14 ppg. 1-5 vs spread in last six as underdog. Under is 8-3-1 in Washington’s last dozen road openers. Since ’07, Redskins are 18-12-3 as road underdogs. Since ’08, Saints are 19-9-1 as a home favorite.

Patriots @ Titans — Since 1998, Super Bowl losers are 0-13 vs spread (2-11 SU) in their next season’s opener. Teams’ first meeting since Patriots waxed Tennessee 59-0 on snowy October day in Foxboro three years ago, their fourth straight series win. Tennessee covered seven of last ten home openers, four of last five that were in Week 1; they’re 7-0 vs spread last seven times they were underdog in home opener, with last non-cover 34-17 (+5) vs Steelers in ’95. Patriots won last eight season openers (4-3-1 vs spread); they’re 6-6 in last dozen road openers, 1-2 in last three; since ’92, they’re 1-11 in road openers if they score 21 or less points, 7-1 if they score 23+. Four of their last six road openers went over total. Titans’ last three home openers went over total. Pats split two visits here, losing 24-7 in ’02, winning 40-23 in ’06.

Jaguars @ Vikings — New owner/coach/QB for Jaguars, who lost last four road openers (1-3 vs spread) by average score of 25-9, losing 38-13/32-3 in Week 2 road openers last two years. In their history, are solid 7-4 vs spread as underdog in road openers. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under total. First time in five years Vikings are opening season at home; Minnesota lost three of last four home openers, with all four decided by four or less points; since ’99, they’re 3-8 vs spread as favorite in home openers. Vikings won three of four series games, with none of four decided by less than 11 points. Only Jaguar win was 33-3 here in ’01. Since ’88, under is 16-7-1 in Metrodome home openers.

Dolphins @ Texans — High expectations in Houston after their first playoff appearance LY; they’re 6-0 vs Dolphins, with all three wins here by 3 or less points- only one of the six wins is by more than 7 points. Rookie QB gets the nod for Miami, which lost seven of last eight road openers (1-5-1 vs spread in last seven), with only win at Buffalo in ’10. Once-proud Fish are 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games as underdog in road opener. Texans won 34-24/34-7 in last two home openers, after losing six of first eight in franchise history; they’re 2-2 as Week 1 home favorite. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Houston allowed 24+ points in seven of last nine home openers. Under is 13-5 in Miami’s last 18 road openers.

Rams @ Lions — Third offense in three years for young QB Bradford; main question is can rebuilt OL keep him on his feet? Rams are 15-65 last five years, worst 5-year stretch in NFL history; they hired former Titan HC Fisher to right ship. His DC in Tennessee was current Lion HC Schwartz, so team will play similar defenses. St Louis lost last ten road openers (1-9 vs spread) by average score of 26-12, with five of last six staying under total. Last time Rams won season opener was 18-10 home win (+3.5) over Denver in 2006. Detroit is 14-6-1 vs spread in last 21 home openers, but lost three of last four (32-35/48-3 L2 years). First time in six years they’re opening season at home. Three of last four home openers went over. Rams are 3-2 in last five series games; ’09 Rams’ only win came here, 17-10. ’10 Rams lost 44-10 here.

Falcons @ Chiefs — Home side won five of last six series games, all decided by 11+ points; Falcons have never won here, losing 38-10/14-3/56-10 (’04). Atlanta whupped KC 38-14 at home in last meeting (’08). Chiefs started 0-1 five of last six years. Chiefs are 4-8 in last dozen home openers, scoring 13 or less points in five of last six. KC is 2-6-1 vs spread last nine games where they were favored in a home opener. Atlanta lost last five road openers, scoring average of 8.6 ppg; they even lost at Pittsburgh one year when Big Ben was suspended. Since ’88, they’re 0-4 as favorite in road openers. Seven of last eight road openers stayed under total; under is 16-2-1 in Chiefs’ last 19 home openers.

49ers @ Packers — Green Bay won five in row, 13 of last 14 games vs 49ers, with only loss in ’98 playoff game; SF lost last eight visits here, with five of eight by 10+ points. Pack won/covered last five home openers, by average score of 27-18. This will be 13th time in 16 years they’re at home in Week 1.. Niners four of last five road openers, covered six of last eight; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine tries as road dog in road opener. Since ’94, they’re 2-6 vs spread in Week 1 road games. Four of Pack’s last six home openers stayed under; under is 3-1-1 in 49ers’ last five road openers. Niners were +28 in turnovers in magical ’11 run; they made lot of own breaks, but you’re not +28 without few bounces going your way—will that continue?

Panthers @ Buccaneers — Curious to see how Newton does with full off-season program under his belt; teams didn’t have that last season, but he was still terrific as rookie, beating Bucs 38-19/48-16 in two meetings. Carolina lost last three road openers, allowing 28-31-28 points; they failed to cover last three as dog in road openers, after covering nine of first 10 (9-4 as dog overall in road openers). Tampa Bay lost five of last six season openers; since ’88, they’re 4-6 vs spread as dogs in home openers, 7-6-1 as favorite. Bucs are 4-6 in last ten home openers; over is 3-1-1 in last five, after 12 of previous 15 stayed under. Carolina’s last four road openers went over the total. Oddly, Carolina won seven of last nine visits here.

Seahawks @ Cardinals — Home side won four of last five series games; Seattle lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 6-3-13-11-3 points. Since ’00, Hawks are 4-8 in road openers, allowing 6-0-7-6 points in wins; they lost last five road openers (0-6 vs spread in last six) by average score of 29-14. Home team won their last five season openers. Arizona has been better in home openers since they got the dome; winning five of last six home openers, but since ’88, are still just 3-10 vs spread as favorite in home openers, with five of last six going over total. Under is 19-5 in Arizona’s last 24 home openers, but 2-3 in last five.

Steelers @ Broncos — Denver KO’d Steelers from playoffs 29-23 with OT TD last January; now they’ve upgraded from Tebow to Manning at QB. Fox lost eight of his last nine home openers; before he got to Denver, Broncos had won 11 straight Mile High openers (8-3 vs spread). Manning won seven of last eight home openers, covering six of last 10 as favorite. Over is 3-1-1 in Denver’s last five home openers. Pittsburgh is just 4-8 in last 12 road openers, 4-3 in last seven, scoring average of just 10 ppg in last five, with four of those five staying under total- they scored 14 or less points in four of those five games. New OC Haley said to have installed more run-happy offense, which may explain why Big Ben didn’t get his shoulder fixed. Since ’88, they’re 4-5 in Week 1 openers on road. Steelers are 5-10-1 all-time in Denver, 3-4 vs Broncos in playoffs.

Bengals @ Ravens — Baltimore won last seven home openers (5-2 vs spread), with none of wins by less than seven points; since 1988, they’re 8-3 vs spread in Week 1 home games. Ravens covered four of last five home openers vs divisional opponent. Cincinnati is 4-3 in last seven road openers; they were dog in three of four wins, favored in two of three losses (underdogs covered five of their last six road openers). Since ’88, are 6-5 vs spread as Week 1 underdog. Four of Bengals’ last five road openers went over total; over is 5-1-1 in Ravens’ last seven home openers, but seven of last nine series games had totals of 37 or less. Ravens won both meetings LY, 31-24/24-16, but are still just 6-9 in last 15 series games, albeit 3-1 in last four played here.

Chargers @ Raiders — Allen is fourth head coach in five years for Oakland, but Palmer had full camp and should be better this year under center. Raiders won three of last four series games after losing 13 in row to Bolts before that. San Diego won seven of last eight visits here, with only loss 35-27 in ’10. Chargers lost four of last five road openers, allowing average of 30.6 ppg, giving up 35+ points in three of the four losses; they’re 4-9 vs spread last 13 times road opener was in Week 1. Over is 13-7-1 in San Diego’s last 21 road openers. Raiders lost last four times they opened season at home, with three losses by 15+ points- they’re 9-5 in last 14 home openers, winning last two after losing previous seven. Four of their last five home openers went over the total. Average total in last four series games is 52.

Armadillosports.com

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 1
By Larry Josephson
Covers.com

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-7, 45.5)

Steven Jackson vs. Lions run defense

Let’s face it - with Jackson the Rams have the semblance of an NFL offense. Without him at 100 percent it can get pretty ugly, especially since Sam Bradford completes less than 54 percent of his passes to a less-than-mediocre group of receivers. The Rams are just too limited and too inexperienced.

Detroit’s defense overall was mediocre last season (23rd overall, giving up 367 yards a game), but St. Louis is very one-dimensional.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7, 50)

Saints’ quick defense vs. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III

Tough opener here for the kid, who like Michael Vick, will succumb to the urge to flee the pocket when things get uncomfortable. The Saints will move heaven and earth to keep RG3 inside the hash marks and see how good he is at reading defenses.

One area of concern for New Orleans: Injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Middle linebacker Curtis Lofton (sprained ankle) insists he’ll be ready to go.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 47)

Titans QB Jake Locker vs. the Patriots pass rush

That’s right. New England’s pass rush. The Pats’ defense has undergone a makeover and instead of flooding the passing lanes with up to seven DBs and giving ground like the French in WWII, they will attack more with newcomers Chandler Jones and Don’t’a Hightower going after Jake Locker.

The Titans have turned the page at QB, sitting (for now) vet Matt Hasselbeck and moving to Locker, who has thrown all of 66 career passes and completed barely half of them. Locker has never thrown a pick and NE’s Kyle Arrington led the NFL with 11 INTs last year.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-11.5, 43)

Dolphins’ overall lack of talent vs. Houston’s playmakers

Will someone please take his talent to South Beach? The Dolphins are desperate for someone who can move the chains. The contrast between Houston’s mother lode of talent (Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Arian Foster) and Miami’s talent-free roster will be on full display.

Plus, Houston’s defense (No. 2 last season, allowing 285.7 yards per game) gets to go against a rookie QB (Ryan Tannehill).

Betting Preview: New England at Tennessee
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com

New England at Tennessee

There is a popular trend making the rounds online involving betting against the losing Super Bowl team in Week 1. I'm not buying that garbage; it’s ancient history. It makes no sense to me when you have different personnel versus a team that they have game planned against for months and somehow the hangover effect will come into play ATS. Not a chance. The Giants just proved how much these trends are worth on opening night where the winning Super Bowl team was 8-0 SU the following season in Week 1…now it's 8-1.

The Patriots have yet to unleash their offense with receivers Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd and their two stellar tight ends all together on the field with Tom Brady. The Titans have not shown much of a pass rush and have the same defensive players as last year – a unit that ranked 31st in the NFL. The Patriots upgraded their defense quite a bit via the draft with their first two picks and now the front seven is better than ever. You couldn't run on the Patriots before, now it will be almost impossible.

The Titans have a shot to win this contest if and only if quarterback Jake Locker has a mistake free game. We know from the past that Locker makes many mistakes especially throwing on the run. Tennessee’s running game ranked dead last in the NFL, thus Locker will have to have a magical day to make it close. I don't see how this will be possible with a weak wide receiver group that will be without its best player in Kenny Britt, leaving Nate Washington and rookie Kendall Wright to pick up the pieces. The line has come down from -6.5 to -5 – many handicappers simply cannot resist a home underdog. We'll gladly lay less than a touchdown with the best team in the conference.

Betting Preview: San Francisco at Green Bay
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com

San Francisco at Green Bay

The 49ers were a tremendous story last season as new head coach Jim Harbaugh took them to a 13-3 record and the NFC Championship. Many experts expect are calling for some sort of regression after the 49ers parlayed an easy schedule and an amazing +28 turnover margin into robust success. The schedule is tougher this year and given the nature of the NFL, it would be foolish to project anything close to a +28 TO margin again. That being said, I still think this is a good football team but one thing the 49ers need to improve on in order to beat the big boys like Green Bay is red zone offense after ranking 29th in the league last year.

After a 15-1 regular season, the Packers ended their campaign in bitter disappointment as well with a 37-20 home loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. Like San Francisco, Green Bay was very fortunate in the turnover department with a +24 margin. Note also that the Packers were outgained in nine of their last 12 games, which indicates they weren’t as strong as their gaudy record.

The key match-up for the 49ers in this contest will be how they contend with the Packers’ spread passing game. The 49ers played an undemanding schedule of quarterbacks and passing offenses last year and their secondary is the questionable portion of their defense. Meanwhile, for the Packers, can they match the 49ers from a physical standpoint at the line of scrimmage? The 49ers will try to control tempo with their running game and the Packers might have a difficult time stopping it without key linebacker Desmond Bishop and his 142 tackles last year. This should be a great football game with two of the best coordinated teams in the NFL. My numbers indicate a close 23-20 type game which has me leaning towards the under and road underdog.

NFL Betting: Packers Host Niners

Expected to be two of the top teams in the NFC this season, the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers will get their seasons started in Wisconsin late on Sunday afternoon in one of the highlight matchups of Week 1 of the NFL betting calendar. Green Bay is a 5.5-point favorite at BOVADA.

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The Packers and Niners combined for 28 wins last season, with Green Bay a league-best 15-1 (11-5 ATS) and San Francisco not far behind at 13-3 (11-4-1 ATS). Neither team, though, had the playoff success they wanted – they both got knocked out by the Giants.

Green Bay and San Francisco last met in December 2010, when the Packers rolled to a 34-16 win as a 9-point home favorite. That was the Packers' eighth consecutive win over the Niners, and they were 6-1-1 ATS in that span. The OVER has paid out in their last three matchups for totals bettors on the NFL lines at Bovada.

Earlier in the day the New England Patriots will kick off their season in Tennessee against the Titans, with the Pats coming off a 13-3 (9-6-1 ATS) campaign and the Titans posting a middling mark of 9-7 (6-9-1 ATS) in 2011.

The last meeting between New England and Tennessee was an epic blowout – the Patriots won 59-0 at home and covered the 9-point spread many times over in an October 2009 matchup. The Titans have lost each of their last four games against New England.

Sunday night then offers up the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Denver Broncos, with the Broncos winning their most recent meeting 29-23 in overtime in last year's playoffs behind Tim Tebow. Peyton Manning takes over as the Broncos' starting QB for this season.

The Broncos were 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS) last season, while the Steelers were 12-4 (7-9 ATS). The OVER has paid out in four of the last five games between these two AFC teams.

On the Super Bowl futures at BOVADA heading into the season the Patriots are at 11/2, with the Packers at 6/1, the Niners at 9/1, the Steelers at 14/1, and the Broncos at 15/1. The Titans are the longshot of those half-dozen teams at 65/1 odds to win the championship.

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Back in June, the Saints were 11-point home favorites over Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. That number slid down to -9½ by July, went to -9 on Monday and by Thursday evening, the Saints were only -7.

At one point, the Cardinals were 2½-point favorites, but the combination of Arizona's two quarterbacks looking awful in preseason while rookie Russell Wilson shined with the Seahawks has made Seattle the 2½-point road favorite with money being attached suggesting that a move to -3 is probable by gameday.

So what gives? Why all the respect for these two rookies? We asked Coast Resorts sports book director Bob Scucci the question and he was pretty straight and simple with his answer. “We have some pretty impressive rookies out there that have shown they can move the ball and have a quick understanding of their systems.”

Quarterbacks like Andy Dalton and Cam Newton proved last season that they could come right out of college and make things happen immediately which has kind of put the thought in the back of every coach’s mind that has a veteran QB who they’re not too sure if he’s the answer to their team’s Super Bowl dreams.

LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay has another take on why we’re seeing early success from the rookies QB’s and faith given to them by their coaches.

"The kids are better coached from a young age through high school," Kornegay said, "moreso than even 10 years ago. We’re seeing 10-year olds playing cover-2 defenses. The college programs are so much better as far as preparing kids for the next level between the system and getting enough pass reps. It doesn’t surprise me to see them have success at all, and I don’t think the trend is going to end anytime soon."

Andrew Luck showed during the preseason that he can move the ball and take command of the Colts offense and bettors have respected his maturity and leadership. The Bears have been 9½-point home favorites against the Colts since the LVH first opened NFL spreads in Las Vegas April 18 and it wasn’t until Thursday that the line went to -10.

While those three quarterbacks have been given the ultimate compliment from bettors, the other two have been picked on.

“Ryan Tannehill will probably struggle the most out of the five rookies just because he doesn’t have the supporting cast around him,” said Kornegay.

Kornegay said the LVH opened the Texans as a 6-point home favorite in April and they have been bet all the way up to -12, with the bulk of that action coming after the Dolphins announced Tannehill would start.

As for the Browns and Brandon Weeden, who the public has bet against taking the Eagles at -8 and pushing it up to -9, Kornegay sees the writing on the wall. "Cleveland has a problem."

One of the bigger moves not involving a rookie quarterback is the Bills action coming in for their game at the Jets. New York was once six-point favorites in the early spreads offered and now are as low as -2½ at the South Point.

“I was kind of surprised by that move,” said Scucci. “I don’t understand the large move myself, but we’ve taken a lot of sharp money on the Bills. This will be one of those games where the public will be on the Jets, but we’ll lopsided in Bills straight bets.”

Kornegay kind of understands the move from a psyche standpoint.

“The Bills are full of optimism about their season and bettors have seen that and been betting them to win the conference, Super Bowl and OVER on their season win totals. Whereas the Jets seem to have a little more pressure on them with the media and struggling in the preseason.“

The Jets' offense did struggle throughout the preseason, but there didn’t seem to ever be sense of urgency at any time from Jets coach Rex Ryan. They didn’t even run a Tebow-inspired play on offense during the preseason for fear of tipping off the Bills on how to stop it. Also, the Jets weren’t the only team to go 0-4 in the preseason. Buffalo matched their effort by going winless as well.

The Titans have seen a lot of action the last two days from sharp money across town in their home game against the Patriots. New England was favored by 6 ½-points and they are all the down to -5½.

"Despite the number move on the Titans, we’re still going to need the Patriots on Sunday just because they’re such a huge public favorite," said Scucci.

The last 12 Super Bowls losers have lost their season opener the following season, going 2-10 ATS.

The Broncos-Steelers Sunday night game should attract the most action of the weekend and thus far it’s been evenly balanced with the Broncos holding at -1 ½.

“I think Denver should be 2½ or 3 in this game,” said Kornegay, “but we’ll let the action dictate where we go from here.”

The top sharp plays of the week around the city are the Rams, Raiders, Bills, Redskins, and Titans.

Week 1 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 1 of the NFL season will showcase plenty of new faces under center, including four rookies starting their career on the highway. Only one of these four teams is favored (Seattle), while Cleveland is receiving a touchdown at home with Brandon Weeden making his debut. Since 2008, rookie quarterbacks to start on opening day have been a coin-flip proposition, as Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco all won, while Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, and Sam Bradford all lost. We’ll take a look at the five new quarterbacks and their chances on cashing tickets to start the 2012 season.

Colts at Bears (-10, 43)

The Peyton Manning era is finished in Indianapolis with top pick Andrew Luck taking over the Colts’ franchise. Indianapolis split its four preseason games, while covering three times, including as a four-point underdog at Pittsburgh. The Bears won and cashed their final three preseason contests after losing the exhibition opener to the Broncos.

Chicago finished 8-8 last season, as the Bears lost five of their final six contests after Jay Cutler suffered a season-ending thumb injury. Lovie Smith’s club went 4-4 SU/ATS at Soldier Field in 2011, but the Bears own a 1-4 ATS record at home since 2009 when laying at least six points. The Colts managed covers in four of their final five games last season, while going 3-5 ATS away from Lucas Oil Stadium (all three ATS wins as double-digit underdogs).

Eagles (-9, 43) at Browns

The Browns will be starting their fifth different quarterback in as many years on opening day as the Eagles invade Northern Ohio. Philadelphia's expectations went through the roof prior to last season, but Andy Reid's club stumbled to a 4-8 start before winning its final four games to finish at 8-8. The Eagles wrapped up the preseason at a perfect 4-0, while covering three times, while the Browns lost their final two exhibition games at home, including a 27-10 defeat to the Eagles.

Philadelphia cashed its last four games to conclude the 2011 season, as the Eagles are just 5-6 ATS the previous 11 contests as a road favorite. Cleveland begins the Weeden era with a 6-1 ATS run to end last season, while going 10-1-1 to the 'under' in the final 12 contests. The biggest issue for the Browns will be scoring, as Cleveland put up 17 points or less in 14 of 16 games last season.

Redskins at Saints (-7½, 50)

Robert Griffin III captured the Heisman Trophy last season, but the former Baylor standout becomes the first rookie to start at quarterback for the Redskins on opening day in the Super Bowl era. Washington heads to New Orleans, as the Saints look to get on track following a tumultuous offseason that included season-long suspensions of head coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma, but the former University of Miami star will play on Sunday after a judge overturned the ban.

The Saints won and covered all nine games at the Superdome last season, including eight victories by double-digits. New Orleans has put together a tremendous 16-3 ATS record at home since 2008 against non-division opponents, while the 'over' is 11-8 in this span. When Mike Shanahan took over in Washington, the Redskins cashed in five of their first seven games as road 'dogs. However, the 'Skins went 2-4 ATS the final six opportunities when receiving points on the highway to wrap up last season.

Dolphins at Texans (-12, 42½)

Miami went through a preseason to forget at 0-4 SU/ATS, while scoring just 43 points. The Dolphins are turning to rookie Ryan Tannehill to reinvigorate this Miami franchise, even though the team didn't beat one playoff squad in a 6-10 campaign last season. Now, Miami heads to Houston for a battle with a Texans' club going for their second straight playoff appearance.

Houston cashed in 12 of 18 games last season, but four of their six non-covers came against teams that didn't qualify for the playoffs. The Texans may be without one of their top offensive weapons, Arian Foster, who is listed as "questionable" with a knee ailment. The Dolphins have moved forward from the Tony Sparano era onto Joe Philbin, but Miami owns a 19-7 ATS as a road underdog since 2008, including four straight covers to close last season.

Seahawks (-2½, 40½) at Cardinals

How rare is it that Seattle is laying points away from the Pacific Northwest? The Seahawks are road favorites for just the fourth time since 2008, while winning just six of their last 25 games on the highway in the last three seasons. Seattle trots out former Wisconsin (and N.C. State) quarterback Russell Wilson for his first regular season game against an Arizona club that won six of eight home contests last season.

The Cardinals had plenty of problems in the preseason figuring out their quarterback quandary, as John Skelton came out on top over Kevin Kolb, who is making the big bucks after getting picked up from Philadelphia prior to last season. Arizona split a pair of games with Seattle last season with the home team winning each time, while the only two losses at University of Phoenix Stadium came to the Giants and Steelers. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals have covered four of five openers, including last season's Week 1 victory over Carolina.

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 1
By Covers.com

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 1's action.

Indianapolis colts at Chicago Bears (-10, 43.5)

Chicago won the teams' last meeting during the 2008 Kickoff Weekend. Forte raced 50 yards for a touchdown and linebacker Lance Briggs returned a fumble 21 yards for a score as the Bears posted a 29-13 victory on Sept. 7, 2008. The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Week 1.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 39.5)

Minnesota is listing four-time Pro Bowler Adrian Peterson, who is ahead of schedule in his recovery from torn anterior and medial collateral ligaments, as a game-time decision despite Peterson telling reporters he's ready to play. The Jaguars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 1.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2.5, 38.5)

The Bills are 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings at New York, but the Jets have won seven of the past eight overall meetings, including 28-24 in Week 12 last season.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-11.5, 42.5)

Houston has won all six matchups against the Dolphins, including a 23-13 victory at Miami last season. However, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in those six meetings.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+5.5, 47)

The Patriots have won six of the last eight games in the series, going 5-3 ATS and 6-2 O/U in that span.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-9, 45.5)

The Rams averaged a mere 179.2 passing yards last season, 23rd in the league. Detroit was 22nd versus the pass, allowing 239.4 yards through the air each week. The over is 4-1 in Lions' last five games overall.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-9, 50.5)

Washington leads the all-time series 15-8 and has won eight of 11 meetings in New Orleans. The Saints won the most recent meeting 33-30 in overtime in 2009. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 43.5)

Running back Trent Richardson, the No. 3 overall pick, has yet to take a snap after undergoing knee surgery last month but is expected to play Sunday. He will be part of an untested backfield with rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden, the 22nd overall selection.

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5, 43.5)

The Falcons are 23-0 when Ryan has a quarterback rating over 100. Opposing QBs recorded an average passer rating of just 79.1 - seventh lowest in the NFL - versus Kansas City last season. The under is 12-2 in Chiefs' last 14 home games.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5, 46.5)

The Packers have 52 wins on kickoff weekend, tied with Chicago for the most ever. Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Week 1 and 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Niners.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 41)

Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is 4-1 SU against Arizona in his coaching career, however the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Arizona.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 46.5)

The Panthers (6-11) have the worst Week 1 record in the NFL while the Buccaneers (14-22) are fourth-worst. That said, the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bucs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-1, 44.5)

Denver QB Peyton Manning is 2-1 with six touchdowns and four interceptions in three career regular-season games against Pittsburgh. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings between Denver and Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 41)

The Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with their AFC North rivals and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five trips to Baltimore.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-1, 46.5)

Oakland is 36-15-1 in home openers, the third-best mark in the NFL. The Raiders have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games with the Bolts.

49ers at Packers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

San Francisco at Green Bay (-5, 46.5)

Two teams coming off postseason disappointment face off in one of the premier games of the NFL's opening weekend when the San Francisco 49ers travel to Green Bay to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay is bent on redemption after squandering a 15-1 regular season by bowing out in its first playoff game, while the 49ers will try to make the next step this season after a 20-17 overtime loss to the Super Bowl champion New York Giants in the NFC title game.

It's also a matchup of contrasting quarterbacks, though both were effective in their own right in 2011. Rodgers had one of the best seasons in NFL history with 4,643 passing yards, 45 touchdowns against only six interceptions and a league-record 122.5 rating. San Francisco's Alex Smith also blossomed, but he did so by becoming an effective game manager, passing for 3,144 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Packers lead the all-time series between the traditional NFL powers 30-25-1 and have won the past nine meetings, including all three under coach Mike McCarthy.

LINE: Packers -5. O/U: 47.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2011: 13-3): San Francisco upgraded Smith's receiving corps by adding Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and rookie A.J. Jenkins and added some depth in the backfield by signing Brandon Jacobs and drafting LaMichael James. The 49ers also return virtually everyone from a defense that ranked second in points allowed and fourth in total yards allowed last season.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2011: 15-1): Green Bay didn't do much in the offseason, and it didn't need to. The Packers were dominant in 2011 until the playoffs, and they have the pieces in place to make a deeper playoff run this year. The Packers' biggest change was letting running back Ryan Grant go to free agency and replacing him with Cedric Benson, who is coming off his third consecutive 1,000-yard season.

TRENDS

* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
* Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four games vs. NFC opponents.
* 49ers are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games in Green Bay.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Packers have 52 wins on kickoff weekend, tied with Chicago for the most ever.

2. Smith has won 14 of his past 17 starts, and the 49ers are 10-0 when he has a rating of 100.0 or better.

3. The 49ers led the NFL with a plus-28 turnover margin last year, the second-best mark in the NFL since 1970.

Top 3 NFL Games to Watch this Weekend
Atssportsline.com

Top 3 NFL games this weekend

Here we are in Week 1 of the NFL with 13 games on Sunday and two games on Monday night. Let's take a look at the top three matchups in a so-so weekend of key matchups and the most intriguing games going into Sunday.

1)San Francisco at Green Bay, 4:25pmET on Fox. This could be a preview of the NFC Championship game. Aaron Rodgers will have to throw all day long because Cedric Benson isn't likely to make a dent in the tough San Francisco defense. The Niners upgraded their passing offense with the additions of WR Randy Moss and Marion Manningham. But they still want to run against a Green Bay defense that moved Pro Bowler DB Charles Woods from corner to safety. Green Bay is 5-point favorite and the total is 46.5.

2)Pittsburgh at Denver, 8:20pmET, NBC Last year, it was Tim Tebow throwing to Demaryius Thomas, who burned Pittsburgh's secondary for the game-winning playoff TD. Tebow is now with the Jets and Peyton Manning takes over a team with an ordinary receiving corps but a pretty good running game led by Willis McGahee. There are still offensive line issues in Pittsburgh and some injury issues at linebacker with James Harrison (knee) being ? S Ryan Clark (spleen) can't play in the high altitude. Denver is a 2-point favorite with a total of 44.5.

2)Cincinnati at Baltimore, 7pmET, ESPN. M&T Bank Stadium should be rocking with this AFC North rivalry game. Baltimore's defense should be down as Def. Player of the Year Terrell Suggs (Achilles) is out until November at the earliest. Cincinnati has always given QB Joe Flacco trouble with their Cover-2 defense. Flacco will try and speed up the tempo with a no-huddle offense. But they still want to get the ball to RB Ray Rice, while Cincy wants to air it out to WR A.J. Green. Baltimore is a 6.5-point favorite and the total is 41.5.

Sunday Night Football: Steelers at Broncos
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-1, 46)

Peyton Manning moving to the Denver Broncos and his recovery from multiple neck surgeries was one of the big stories of the offseason. On Sunday night, Manning and the Broncos will get a real look at just how far the four-time NFL MVP has come in his recovery when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. This version of Denver, with Manning instead of Tim Tebow under center, is very different from the team that knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs last winter - at least offensively. The defense, which sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and picked him off once, remains largely intact. The Steelers will throw a defense at Manning that led the NFL last season while surrendering only 171.9 passing yards per game.

LINE: Broncos -1. O/U: 44.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a beautiful day in Denver. Temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s and winds will be light out of the south.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (2011: 12-4): Pittsburgh finished 21st in scoring at 20.3 points in 2011 and let offensive coordinator Bruce Arians leave in the offseason, replacing him with former Kansas City Chiefs head coach Todd Haley. The first order of business for Haley will be protecting Roethlisberger and his running backs, who have been operating behind a line with several holes. Roethlisberger has been sacked 122 times in the last seasons. Haley has installed sets with two tight ends and a fullback to help with protection and provide extra weapons beyond wide receivers Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace. The defense returns intact and a year older, though starting free safety Ryan Clark will miss the opener due to a sickle-cell trait that is aggravated at high altitude.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2011: 8-8): Tebow provided plenty of excitement for Denver fans in 2011, but Manning brings the prospect of consistent production from the passing game. Wide receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas give Manning a strong set of targets while Willis McGahee and Lance Ball headline the running game. Thomas provided the picture that the Steelers saw all offseason, breaking for an 80-yard touchdown in overtime in the playoffs. The less-talked about addition to the Broncos was former Jacksonville Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio, who takes over as defensive coordinator. Del Rio has a pair of ends in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil that combined for 21 sacks last season. Each pulled down Roethlisberger once in the playoff win.

TRENDS

* Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Broncos defense will not have LB D.J. Williams, who has been suspended six games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

2. Manning is 2-1 with six touchdowns and four interceptions in three career regular-season games against Pittsburgh.

3. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in season openers.

SNF - Steelers at Broncos
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The last time we saw the Steelers at Denver was in January for a Wild Card playoff game with the forever lasting image of Ike Taylor getting stiff armed by Demaryius Thomas as he raced 80 yards in overtime for the winning touchdown. Since then, a lot has changed, especially in Denver where it welcomes 36-year old Peyton Manning as the new quarterback.

There are all kinds of questions surrounding Manning and how effective he'll be in Denver. The only real glimpse of him in game action -- after missing an entire season -- was in the preseason and he looked good.

He took a couple shots from defenders showing that his neck wouldn't break on first contact. That was a big question since he did have four surgeries to repair the neck, but doctors gave him the okay to play. While he looked a little rusty getting minimal playing time in his first two preseason games, he looked like the Peyton Manning we all knew and respected from the past in his third and final game against a great 49ers defense.

He was changing plays on the line, moving players around, and best of all for Denver fans, executing with precision as he engineered three scores in the first quarter. It was that one quarter of play that really gave fans some optimism that Manning might still have something left in the tank.

However, here in Las Vegas, where we gauge teams by the amount of money wagered, especially cash from sharp money, the Broncos haven't caused a stir. Sure, they're getting plenty of $5 and $10 bets to win the Super Bowl (10/1) by fans visiting from out of town that think it would be a neat story, and wanting to be part of it if it does happen -- Denver has the most Super Bowl tickets written on them.

But if we're looking at the sharp money out there, the only thing they've touched is the Broncos to win less than the win total posted. They bet Denver to win less than 9 ½ games, less than 9 games, and slowed the pace once it reached 8 ½, which is where it sits now.

The LVH Super Book opened the first Week 1 spreads in the world with the Broncos being 2-point favorites for this game and here we are on the day it kicks off and it's Broncos -1 ½, one of the slowest moving games on the board.

That doesn't mean people aren't betting the game, because they are. It's been a great two-way handle and it will likely be the largest bet game of the week. Because of the publicity of Manning's return, being Week 1 with everyone all excited and it also being an isolated night game, it may even be the highest wagered upon game of the regular season.

But going back to Manning, and more specifically how effective he'll be; last year's Broncos led the league in rushing with a pretty impressive offensive line. Manning should be protected well. While they won't lead the league in rushing again with Manning at the controls, they should still be in good hands with Willis McGahee.

The real question is in regards to his receiving corps. Eric Decker is not the most sure handed receiver in the league and he's going to be playing the role of Manning's Reggie Wayne. Demaryius Thomas is another receiver with hands of stone that has to have the ball placed perfectly in his hands to be successful and he's also a poor route runner. Fortunately for Manning, he's got the sure handed Brandon Stokley and a couple of really good pass catching tight-ends to help his cause. But overall, his main receivers that are supposed to make him look good are better at blocking. Decker and Thomas both had the luxury of playing with Tim Tebow where defenses stacked the line with their safeties giving them one on one coverage and found themselves wide-open many times.

The Denver defense is also a major question mark. They've got two great pass rushers in Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller which helps mask their poor secondary, but they'll find themselves in plenty of trouble when the opposing quarterback gets time to pass.

We haven't said anything about the Steelers yet because they don't have a lot of question marks. Denver is the unknown, whereas Pittsburgh is the known. We know who they are and what they do, which is play hard on every down.

Despite not having Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Clark and James Harrison, you still know that they're going to play their brand of football and it all starts with QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is healthy without a limp or a special shoe. Even with a gassed Mike Wallace who missed training camp, Big Ben will make plays with whoever is out there -- that we know.

The one variable that may change things a bit is how new offensive coordinator Todd Haley calls the plays. Haley wanted to maximize Roethlisberger's effectiveness and noticed that in Big Ben's past while using the no huddle format, he was statistically better so they practiced it as part of their regular offense throughout training camp.

If the no huddle is to be implemented more, this could be a great opportunity to see a lot of points scored, making 'over' the total of 46 points attractive. Manning won't be harassed by Harrison and the Broncos defense is suspect which should help the total rise as well.

As for the winner of this game? Well, let's just say that the city of Denver hasn't been this excited for a game since John Elway was playing. The crowd will be intense and will play a role in the game. There also has to be a sense of urgency by Denver to get the win because it's the first of seven games against teams that made the playoffs last season. If they don't win Sunday, they might find themselves 0-3 by the time they face the Raiders in Week 4.

Kickoff is slated for 8:20 p.m. ET, with NBC providing national coverage.