NFL Week 1: Turnover City!
By Scott Spreitzer
Sportspic.com
The two biggest favorites on the Sunday Week 1 NFL card were the Patriots and Colts, both double-digit chalk. Both had high profile, star quarterbacks coming off a postseason run against rebuilding teams with rookie QBs. On Sunday, both favorites were lucky to win.
Two things stood out. Both favorites had trouble defending elusive, mobile QBs. Terrelle Pryor impressed with 217 yards passing and 112 rushing against Indy. Buffalo QB E.J. Manuel ran for 32 yards on 7.7 yards per carry while completing 18 of 27 passing. The other thing was how many turnovers Manuel had: none. Meanwhile, his counterpart, Tom Brady, led a butter-fingered Patriots offense that coughed it up an uncharacteristic three times on the afternoon.
Turnovers are such a difficult part of football handicapping, but a huge part of any outcome. What would the odds be have been of the Patriots having the turnover edge against the Bills and their rookie QB before the game? Certainly in Brady’s favor. Yet, Buffalo won the turnover battle 3-2 and nearly won the game, losing 23-21 on a last-second field goal. In contrast, the usually disciplined Patriots were anything but that during the game.
How about another veteran QB with multiple Super Bowls? Eli Manning led his team against the rival Cowboys…and they stumbled their way to six turnovers! Manning tarnished his four TD opener with three picks, and for bad measure, his mates decided to fumble it three times, helping give Dallas the win – and the cover.
It wasn’t just those teams with experienced signal callers: across the NFL, Week 1 was a sea of sloppy play and turnovers. Let me count the frays: the Broncos/Ravens opener combined for four turnovers, as did the Jets/Bucs, Bengals/Bears, Dolphins/Browns and the Cards/Rams contests. Hitting bottom, the Eagles/Redskins matchup had five turnovers in the Monday Night opener, while the Vikings/Lions had six on Sunday afternoon. All of these games were a comedy of errors that drive coaching staffs batty--and those were just the worst. The Seahawks/Panthers and Saints/Falcons games each saw three in their meetings. I haven’t seen so many turnovers since Thanksgiving dinner at Grandma’s.
Part of the reason could be attributed to Week 1 jitters, exacerbated by the fact that the NFL Players Union has gotten perks for athletes during August, such as less physical contact during practice. When the regular season starts and players are hitting for real, many aren’t used to it and are prone to cough it up.
Another is the speed of the game. Over the last ten years, rules have been adjusted that have favored the offense: Enforcing the five-yard rule on defensive backs (2004), the Brady rule (2009) to protect QBs, the end of the head slap by defenders, and allowing offensive linemen to use their hands.
The NFL scoring average was 23.7 points per team per game last year, up from 21.7 a decade ago and from 18.7 two decades ago. After the 2011 season, the top playoff slots went to New England and Green Bay, the league's 31st and 32nd-ranked defenses. It has helped to speed up the game, along with coaching staffs who’ve taken advantage. Over the last ten years, the spread offense has spread in popularity: Peyton Manning and Brady regularly run no-huddle attacks, and Chip Kelly has brought in an offensive attack predicated on speed and tiring out defenses.
The Redskins certainly were out of sync with a QB who didn’t play in preseason, turning it over three times and losing as a home favorite, while also committing 10 penalties. The New York Giants were historically bad, tying a team record for futility with six turnovers. It was the worst outing in that regard in 25 seasons.
Pittsburgh was another home favorite that laid an egg, with 195 total yards and 2 turnovers. Counting preseason, that’s 0-5 SU/ATS for the Steelers. They take on a hard-hitting defense on Monday night in the Bengals, and the Steelers are 4-11-1 ATS against the AFC, plus 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
The Bengals don’t play at a fast tempo, but they too had a ton of problems holding onto the football in Week 1, turning it over three times in their loss to the Bears, blowing an 11-point lead. All of which makes it more challenging for football handicappers given this extra dynamic of more turnovers than usual, even by normally sure-handed teams.
But all the miscues will change as coaching staffs buckle down and players get used to full contact each week. Bill Belichick benched RB Steven Ridley after his mind-numbing fumble was returned 74-yards for a Buffalo TD. The Pats were cruising, driving for a potential 17-0 lead, and suddenly is was 10-7 after the fumble. Ridley didn’t play the rest of the game, a message many coaches will be trumpeting the next few weeks, such as: “Get with it -- and leave the turnovers at Grannies!”