Week 11 Rewind
By Brian Edwards
The New Orleans Saints are 10-0 for the first time in franchise history. Not only that, but they snapped out of a 0-3 against-the-spread slide and easily took the cash by trouncing Tampa Bay 38-7 Sunday as 10½-point road favorites.
Now Sean Payton’s team will look forward to facing the last (and only) team to go through a 16-game regular season unbeaten. That, of course, would be the Patriots, who will come to the Superdome for Monday Night Football on Nov. 30.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New Orleans as a three-point favorite with a total of 54 ½.
Speaking of New England, it slammed the Jets early and often in a 31-14 win as an 11-point home favorite. Shame on all of us, especially me, for not jumping all over Bill Belichick’s team this week after the three-time Super-Bowl winning coach took so much heat following the loss at Indianapolis.
Like I said on the Power Hours this past Thursday, I wish I hadn’t known the number or the opponent for the Pats. That way I could’ve just bet New England blind because I knew Belichick would do a masterful job of getting his team ready to play. Instead, the ‘chalky’ number kept me away.
Wes Welker had 15 receptions for 192 yards, while Tom Brady had 310 passing yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.
The Colts know how to win during the regular season – that’s for sure. Jim Caldwell remained undefeated as an NFL head coach when his team went into Baltimore and captured a 17-15 victory as a short road favorite (books closed anywhere from Colts minus one to minus 2 ½).
The Giants brought a halt to their four-game losing streak, but another defensive collapse in the fourth quarter allowed Atlanta to force overtime and take the money as a seven-point road underdog. Tom Coughlin’s team won a 34-31 decision in the extra session.
The G-Men won the toss at the end of regulation and promptly marched into field-goal range. That’s when Lawrence Tynes buried a 36-yard field goal to improve his club to 6-4 and essentially give it a two-game lead over the Falcons if a tiebreaker is needed in the NFC wild-card chase.
The ageless Brett Favre was sensational once again in Minnesota’s 35-9 clubbing of Seattle as a 10 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Favre completed 22-of-25 passes for 213 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Those numbers brought Favre’s touchdown-to-interception tally to an incredible 21/3 for the season.
Percy Harvin continued to state his case for winning Rookie of the Year honors, hauling in five receptions for 73 yards and one TD, a 23-yard scoring strike from Favre that allowed the Vikings to draw first blood early in the second quarter. Sidney Rice also had another big game, bringing down six catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns.
The 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 47-point total. However, the ‘over’ was a winner for second-half bets. With the Vikings leading 21-0 at intermission, oddsmakers made the second-half total 21, equating to 42 for the game. It was the second straight week that gamblers cashed winners on Minnesota’s ‘under’ for the game, in addition to its ‘over’ for the second half.
This space warned bettors to stay away from the Bengals at Oakland. Cincinnati has been dynamite as an underdog in 2009, posting a 6-0 record both straight up and ATS. But the Bengals were 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as favorites prior to facing the Raiders. Make that 1-3 SU and 0-4 versus the number.
Oakland trailed 17-10 when it took over from its own 20 with 2:06 remaining. Bruce Gradkowski led his team into Bengals’ territory and with 33 seconds left, he found Louis Murphy for a 29-yard TD pass. On the ensuing kick, Andre Caldwell coughed up a fumble the Raiders recovered at Cincy’s 17. Moments later, Sebastian Janikowski nailed the game-winning field goal for a 20-17 triumph.
Bettors backing Oakland on the money line cashed generous plus-320 tickets (risk $100 to win $320).
Another live underdog was the Kansas City Chiefs, who shocked the Steelers 27-24 in overtime. KC won outright as a 10-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-400 payout.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 398 yards and three touchdowns but sustained a concussion in overtime. His status for next week’s game at Baltimore is in doubt.
Philadelphia won the prime-time game at Soldier Field, beating Chicago 24-20 as a 3 ½-point road favorite. The 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 46-point total. Donovan McNabb threw for 232 yards and a pair of TDs, while LeSean McCoy ran 20 times for 99 yards and the game-winning TD scamper from 10 yards out with 5:31 remaining in the final stanza.
Andy Reid’s team is in a three-way tie for the NFC wild-card lead with the Packers and Giants, who both lead the Falcons by one game. The Eagles and G-Men are just one game back of NFC-East-leading Dallas.
The Cowboys barely escaped Washington’s upset bid by collecting an ugly 7-6 victory in non-covering fashion. The Redskins covered the spread as 11-point road underdogs.
Arizona won 21-13 at St. Louis, but the Rams posted a backdoor cover as nine-point home underdogs. The Cardinals led 21-3 at halftime but lost Kurt Warner to an injury at that point. With Matt Leinart under center, they couldn’t generate any add-on points, allowing St. Louis backers to cash tickets.
San Diego is now in control of the AFC West after crushing Denver 32-3 as a 6 ½-point road favorite. The last time the Broncos saw the Chargers, they improved to 6-0 with a convincing win at San Diego on national television. Five weeks later, the Bolts lead the division and have won five in a row, while Josh McDaniels’ squad has dropped four straight.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The AFC wild-card hunt looks like this: Three teams – Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Denver – are in a tie for the two playoff spots. Houston can make it a four-way deadlock with a win over Tennessee on MNF. The Dolphins and Ravens are both one game back of the co-leaders.
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan connected on 26-of-46 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against the Giants. With his team trailing 31-17 in the fourth quarter, Ryan was nearly perfect in guiding the Falcons on back-to-back scoring drives to force overtime. His second TD pass went to Tony Gonzalez, who made an incredible leaping grab in traffic. Atlanta returns home in dire need of a victory with Tampa Bay coming to the Georgia Dome. As of early Monday, most spots had Mike Smith’s squad as an 11-point ‘chalk.’
Buffalo WR Terrell Owens had his best game of the year in his team’s 18-15 loss at Jacksonville. Owens had nine receptions for 197 yards and one touchdown, a 98-yard TD grab from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Detroit won The Scrub Bowl at Ford Field thanks to a last-second TD toss from Matthew Stafford to Brandon Pettigrew. The Lions prevailed by a 38-37 count over Cleveland but failed to cover as three-point home favorites. Stafford became the first NFL rookie to throw five TD passes since 1937. Eric Mangini called a timeout just before Stafford’s game-winning TD throw. The timeout allowed Stafford to return to the game after he had been injured on the previous play, a pass-interference penalty that set up Detroit’s last-gasp effort. If not for Mangini’s decision to call the timeout, Daunte Culpepper would’ve been taking his first snap of the game.
Leinart’s numbers: 10-of-14 for 74 yards with zero TDs or INTs.
The status of three starting QBs – Roethlisberger, Stafford and Denver’s Kyle Orton – is up in the air for next week.
When the Jets blocked a punt late in the second quarter to cut their deficit to 24-6 at New England, why not go for the two-point conversion, Rex Ryan? I often rip coaches for going for two too soon (like Houston Nutt on Saturday against LSU) because I feel like you should wait until the fourth quarter when involved in tight games. However, when trailing by a multiple of eight (16, 24 or 32 but NOT eight), I think you go for the two-point conversion, especially when you get a gift score like the Jets did in this scenario. I just felt like going from a blowout loss to a two-possession game before intermission would’ve really left the Jets believing they could get back in the game. As it turned out, New York scored a TD on its opening drive of the third quarter to pull to within 24-14. I wonder if things would’ve been different if a pair of two-point conversions had made it a one-possession difference at such an early stage of the third quarter.
My Top Ten:
1-Minnesota
2-New England
3-New Orleans
4-Indianapolis
5-San Diego
6-Philadelphia
7-New York Giants
8-Cincinnati
9-Pittsburgh
10-Arizona
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