NFL Week 11 Trends

Denver at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Denver: 11-1 ATS after gaining 500+ total yards
Atlanta: 1-11 ATS at home off DD home win

Oakland at Miami, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 0-8 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games
Miami: 30-11 ATS vs. AFC West

Baltimore at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 6-0 ATS after scoring 40+ points
NY Giants: 0-3 ATS vs. Baltimore

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Houston: 0-6 ATS on turf
Indianapolis: 5-1 Over at home vs. Houston

(TC) Tennessee at Jacksonville, 4:15 ET
Tennessee: 6-0 ATS vs. conference opponents
Jacksonville: 10-0 Over 2nd half of season

Chicago at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 23-9 Over vs. conference
Green Bay: 11-2 Over off SU loss

Philadelphia at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 14-2 ATS off a division game
Cincinnati: 5-16 ATS at home after allowing 75 yards rushing or less

New Orleans at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 10-3 Over off BB Overs
Kansas City: 7-0 ATS after allowing 300+ passing yards BB games

Detroit at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 6-0 ATS as DD Underdog
Carolina: 14-5 Under off SU win

Minnesota at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 8-2 Over at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay: 16-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games

St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
St. Louis: 2-10 ATS off road loss
San Francisco: 21-9 ATS vs. St. Louis

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 9-21 ATS off BB wins
Seattle: 7-0 ATS off BB losses

San Diego at Pittsburgh, 4:15 ET
San Diego: 2-8 ATS vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh: 13-3 Over at home vs. conference

Dallas at Washington, 8:15 ET
Dallas: 6-0 ATS after allowing 35+ points
Washington: 1-8 ATS off DD loss as favorite

Write-In Game

Baltimore at Houston, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 25-12 ATS off road win
Houston: 7-1 Over in all games

Monday, November 17th

Cleveland at Buffalo, 8:30 ET ESPN
Cleveland: 8-1 ATS off BB Overs
Buffalo: 6-0 Under off BB ATS losses

BALTIMORE vs. NY GIANTS
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Baltimore
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Baltimore

CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

DENVER vs. ATLANTA
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

DETROIT vs. CAROLINA
Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Indianapolis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

MINNESOTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

NEW ORLEANS vs. KANSAS CITY
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

OAKLAND vs. MIAMI
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

PHILADELPHIA vs. CINCINNATI
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games

ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona

ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
St. Louis is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

SAN DIEGO vs. PITTSBURGH
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games

TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Jacksonville's last 21 games

DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Dallas

Monday, November 17

CLEVELAND vs. BUFFALO
Cleveland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games
Cleveland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

Tips and Trends

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Bears: It's hard to argue with head coach Lovie Smith's stellar 6-2 record in four years against the Packers. Chicago has won in its last four trips to Lambeau Field, something Smith promised would happen when he was hired back in 2004. The problem now though is his team's pass defense, which ranks 30th in the NFL. The Bears have virtually no pass rush and made Tennessee QB Kerry Collins look like an All-Pro in last week's 21-14 home loss. It also doesn't help that Rex Grossman could be in line for another start at QB if Kyle Orton's ankle hasn't healed enough for him to return.

Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
The OVER is 9-4-1 in Chicago's last 14 games vs. NFC North.

Key Injuries - QB Kyle Orton (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Packers (-4, O/U 45): Green Bay's defense took a major hit yet again following last week's 28-27 loss at Minnesota when it was discovered that LB Nick Barnett had torn ligaments in his knee. “He’s very disappointed,” Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said. “It’s unfortunate, but we need to have the other guys step up.” McCarthy may choose to move A.J. Hawk inside and give Brandon Chillar his outside spot. Regardless, Green Bay will have to stop Chicago rookie RB Matt Forte in order to be successful after surrendering a season-high 220 rushing yards to Minnesota's Adrian Peterson.

Packers are 0-4 SU in the last 4 home meetings.
The OVER is 8-1 in Green Bay's last 9 home games.

Key Injuries - LB Nick Barnett (knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Chargers: This seems to be a nightmare matchup for San Diego's finesse offense, as no team in the NFL has given up less yards per game (240.3) than Pittsburgh. The Chargers face a run defense that is allowing just 69.2 yards per game on the ground, which is bad news for RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who has rushed for 100 yards only once in five games and twice all season. Tomlinson has also expressed frustrations in the running game's role in the offense. "I think it's evidently clear when we watch the game that it's not like it used to be where we would wear teams down in that fashion," Tomlinson said. "We don't really do that anymore."

Chargers are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs. AFC.
The OVER is 14-5-2 in San Diego's last 21 road games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Steelers (-5, O/U 43.5): Pittsburgh's tough schedule doesn't get any easier here against the Chargers, but they are hoping to get some players back after a full week of practice. The Steelers had a difficult time last week coming off a Monday night win at Washington, which also resulted in several injuries. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger had a solid game despite three interceptions (one on a last-second Hail Mary play) against the Colts - passing for 284 yards - and he should enjoy similar success against San Diego's last-ranked pass defense.

Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
The OVER is 9-4 in Pittsburgh's last 13 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Willie Parker (shoulder) is questionable.
LB LaMarr Woodley (calf) is questionable.
TE Heath Miller (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Cowboys (-2.5, O/U 46): It's put-up or shut-up time for the preseason favorites to win not only the NFC East but advance to the Super Bowl from the conference. Dallas will put QB Tony Romo's healed broken finger to the test in the team's biggest game of the season. The Cowboys could get a bit of a break if Redskins RB Clinton Portis does not play due to a sprained knee, as he has rushed for 100 yards in the last tow meetings. Regardless, the Dallas defense needs to come to play against whoever is on the field and give Romo a chance to win.

Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Key Injuries - QB Tony Romo (finger) is questionable.
CB Terence Newman (groin) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (Side Play of the Day)

Redskins: Washington signed CB DeAngelo Hall after he was cut by the Raiders early last week, and it remains to be seen which player will show up. Hall was a Pro Bowler in Atlanta but surrendered a league-high 552 yards on 40 catches by opposing receivers in eight games with the Raiders. “That situation in Oakland kind of left a bitter taste in my mouth,” Hall said. “I have had a lot of success in this league, but I’m still young. I still have a lot to learn. I still have a lot of maturing to do. That all comes with time.”

Underdog is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Washington's last 17 November games. RB Clinton Portis (knee) is questionable.

Key Injuries - DE Jason Taylor (calf) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Broncos (5-4) @ Falcons (6-3)-- Atlanta is 4-0 at home, winning by 13, 24,2,14 points- they average 173 rushing yards, 32 ppg at home, have won four of last five games overall. Denver is 4-0 when it scores 34 or more points, 1-4 if it doesn't- Atlanta gave up 21-14-20-20 in its four home games. Broncos allowed average of 30.3 ppg in last four games-- they allowed average of 161.8 rushing yards over last four games. Three of last four Falcon games stayed under total. NFC South home favorites are 6-4 in non-divison games; AFC road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread.

Raiders (2-7) @ Dolphins (5-4)-- Tough game to call, since Raiders are putrid, losing last three games by 19-24-11 points (outscored 57-0 in the first half of those games), and now Al Davis took the play-calling duties away from OC Knapp, which won't help. Miami won last three games by 9-9-2 points, but they're just 4-20 vs spread in last 24 games as the home favorite, and have Patriots visiting next week. AFC West dogs are 4-6 vs spread in non-divisional road games; AFC East home favorites are 6-6. Last five Oakland games, last three Miami games all stayed under.

Ravens (6-3) @ Giants (8-1)-- Red-hot Baltimore won last four games, all by 10+ points, and were dog in three of them; this is their fifth road game in last six weeks, but only one of their three losses this season is by more than three points (3-31 at Indy in Week 6). No one has run the ball for more than 76 yards vs Ravens this season. Giants also won and covered four straight, running ball for 200-219 yards in last two weeks. Over is 6-2 in last eight New York games. NFC East home favorites are 7-4 vs spread in non-divisional home tilts; AFC North road dogs are 8-4.

Texans (3-6) @ Colts (5-4)-- Houston blew Indy 27-10 lead over Colts back in Week 5, giving up two TDs in last 5:00, both after fumbles by a scrambling Rosenfels, as Colts stole 31-27 win. Texans are 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road dog, losing by 21-19-3-7 points- in their last two games, the Texans ran ball just 32 times, dropped back to pass 82, so until they get more balance, they won't win road games. Colts beat Patriots, Steelers in last two games by combined total of seven points; they're 2-5 as a fave this year. Over is 7-1 in last eight Houston games, 3-1 in Colts' last four.

Titans (9-0) @ Jaguars (4-5)-- Tennessee (+3) beat Jags 17-10 in season opener, outrushing Jax 137-33, surviving 18-yard deficit in starting field position, 3-13 on third down conversions. Titans still haven't lost; they are 4-0 on road; Colts are only team this season that scored more than 17 points against them. Jaguars are 1-3 at home, beating Texans 30-27 and losing to Bills-Steelers-Browns. The last 19 times Titan opponents had a drive started a drive 80+ yards from end zone, they scored just a single FG. As long as Titans protect ball (one TO last four games) they're OK.

Bears (5-4) @ Packers (4-5)-- Green Bay lost last two games by total of four points, are 2-5 in last seven contests, but they've covered last four games- they're 2-1 as favorite this season- three of their four wins are by 10+ points. Packer run defense allowed 178-220 yds in two games since their bye, while offense is just 7 for last 26 on third down-- punt return and INT return for TD kept last week's loss at Metrodome from being a rout. Bears are on road for first time in five weeks; they're 2-2 on foreign soil, losing by 2 at Atlanta, 3 at Carolina. Under is 4-0 in Bear road tilts.

Eagles (5-4) @ Bengals (1-8)-- Perennial losers have very little edge on a home field; Cincinnati won for first time in last game before its bye, has home losses by 17-8-28 points- they're 3-3 as underdog this year, 1-2 at home. Philly lost tough game to Giants last week, after winning previous three games by 14-13-19 points- they're 5-2 vs spread when favored in '08. Eagles are 4-0 when they allow less than 23 points; Bengals scored 7-12-1-21 at home. NFC East faves are 12-8 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-4 on the road. AFC North underdogs are 10-6, 2-2 at home.

Saints (4-5) @ Chiefs (2-7)-- New Orleans is 4-0 vs spread in game after a loss; this is their fourth straight game on road- they're 0-4 on road, as they've allowed 29-34-20-32-34 points away from Superdome. Chiefs are showing spunk with Thigpen at QB, but they've still lost five games in row, covering last three (losses by 1-3-4 points). Over is 6-3 in Saint games this season, 5-2 in last seven Chief contests. AFC West dogs are 6-9 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-3 at home. NFC South favorites are 8-4 vs spread out of its division, 2-1 on road. Only game the Saints won away from home was the neutral field game in London.

Lions (0-9) @ Panthers (7-2)-- Delhomme was awful passing ball in win at Oakland last week (7-27 with four INTs) but Carolina somehow got a win/cover, as Janikowski hit crossbar on 58-yard FG on last play of the game. Panthers won three games, are 3-1-1 as home favorites, with wins by 3-15-34-23-4 points. Woeful Lions covered their last three games on foreign soil, but allowed an average of 146.2 rushing yards/game in their last five games. Under is 7-1 in last eight Carolina games. NFC South home faves, NFC North road dogs are 6-3 vs spread out of its divisions.

Vikings (5-4) @ Buccaneers (6-3)-- Tampa Bay is 4-0 at home, winning by 15-9-24-10 points; Minnesota is 1-3 on road, allowing an average of 32.3 ppg away from home, but Vikings have run ball for average of 219.8 yards/game in their last four games, so stout Buc defense (allow 69 yds a game on ground at home) will be tested here. Minnesota special teams have allowed six TDs this year. NFC South home favorites are 6-3 vs spread out of their division, NFC North road dogs 6-3. Five of last six Viking games went over total; four of last five Buc games stayed under.

Rams (2-7) @ 49ers (2-7)-- Two terrible teams with interim coaches go at it in rivalry game; Niners are on short week after butchering goal line chance to win in desert Monday night- they've lost six games in row, are 1-4 at home, with only win vs 0-9 Lions. Rams were outscored 74-7 in a five-quarter stretch over last two games; only one of their seven losses is by less than 14 points. Four of last five 49er games went over the total. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Bulger gets nod at QB for Rams, despite eight turnovers in last couple games.

Cardinals (6-3) @ Seahawks (2-7)-- Arizona has four-game lead in NFC West with seven games left, so they're in, must combat complacency to get home field in playoffs, which they desperately need. Cardinals won four of last five games, covering all five- they're 2-3 on road, beating the woeful Rams/Niners. Seattle gets Hasselbeck back here- they're not 2-7 club if he is healthy, but again, only teams they've beaten this year are Rams/49ers. Five of last six Arizona games went over. Cardinals need to cut down on penalties; they've committed 39 (270 yds) last four games.

Chargers (4-5) @ Steelers (6-3)-- San Diego is 1-4 on road; they trailed 15-0 at half in only game they won, at Oakland. Bolts survived a shaky game vs Chiefs last week, trailing 13-6 at half, then stopping two-point play with 0:29 left that would have won game. Steelers lost last two at home, are 1-3 as home favorites, with its only cover in season opener, 38-17 vs Texans. AFC North home favorites are 2-3 vs spread in their non-division games. AFC West road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread outside their division. Four of last five San Diego games stayed under the total.

Cowboys (5-4) @ Redskins (6-3)-- Washington won 26-24 at Dallas in Week 4 (+11), outrushing Pokes 161-44, but Redskin defense has taken ball away just twice in last five games (-5). Tony Romo is back, but he doesn't play defense, and Cowboys allowed 142.7 rushing yards/game in the last three games. Dallas is 4-0 when it allows less than 26 points, 1-4 if they do not. Redskins scored 17 or less points in three of its last four games. Five of last six Dallas games went over the total. Somehow, both these teams lost to the Rams. NFC East home faves are 2-4 vs spread. Portis has continuing issues with his ankle; status here is uncertain.

Monday, November 17

Browns (3-6) @ Bills (5-4)-- Quinn gets first road start for a Cleveland team that blew 13+-point second half leads in last two games, only fifth NFL team to do that. Buffalo lost last three games, scoring just 14.3 ppg to fall into last place in AFC East. Buffalo is 3-1 at home, losing 26-17 to Jets when they turned ball over three times, one for 94-yard TD that turned game against them. Browns covered last three road games- they scored 26.7 ppg in last three games, but Quinn focused on Winslow in tough spots last week-- he'll need to find secondary receivers eventually. Under is 3-0-1 in Buffalo's last four games.