NFL Week 2 Betting Recap
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
My September NFL betting mantra is relatively simple. It can be stated in one sentence: “Bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams.” This strategy tends to be at its best very early in the season, before the betting markets catch up to how good or how bad teams actually are compared to last year.
That strategy did not fare well this past weekend for two reasons – many of the good teams played poorly and a good handful of the bad teams stepped up. Of the seven top teams in my power ratings, only two managed to cover the pointspread on Sunday (Cincinnati and New England). Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco all lost SU as favorites. Denver won, by not my enough of a margin to cover the number. And Green Bay pushed against the closing number but lost for anyone who bet the Packers throughout the course of the week.
On the other end of the spectrum, many of the bottom teams in my power ratings stepped up and played a good game. The worst two teams in the league – Jacksonville and Oakland, according to my numbers – are both 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS. Other weak teams like the Giants and Bucs are also 0-2 SU and ATS following their first two ballgames.
But the likes of Washington, Cleveland, St Louis, Houston and Dallas all won and covered on Sunday. The injury riddled Chiefs covered, as did the home/road dichotomy Jets (again, a push for those who bet them late). Why did so many good teams have bad games? And which of those stepping up underdogs have potential to be power rating risers in the weeks and months to come?
Let me start with the simple premise that teams who lose Week 1 tend to circle the wagons in Week 2, looking to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. Teams that were 0-1 after Week 1 went 9-5-1 ATS in Week 2; a percentage that improves to 6-2-1 when we eliminate matchups between 0-1 teams (Redskins – Jaguars, Rams – Bucs and Browns - Saints). The Steelers – Ravens, Cowboys – Titans, Patriots – Vikings, Seahawks – Chargers and Bears – 49ers all saw the 0-1 team emerge victorious over the 1-0 squad. KC didn’t win, but they covered at Denver. The only games where a 1-0 team beat an 0-1 foe were the Giants – Cardinals and Texans – Raiders.
Let’s talk about some of the favorites that failed to cover. The defending Super Bowl champs ran into a buzz saw on Sunday, with the Chargers poised to put last Monday Night’s collapse behind them. I rated the game as more San Diego good than Seattle bad. The Chargers spent the entire game dinking and dunking, looking to control clock, not create explosive big plays.
In fact, San Diego had only one play longer than 16 yards for the entire game. But they converted over and over again on third and short – ten third down conversions in all. That kept the Seahawks offense off the field to the tune of less than 18 minutes of possession for the entire game. On a hot day in Southern California that mattered a lot as the Seahawks defense simply got gassed, failing to force a single three-and-out.
That being said, the game itself didn’t warrant any significant downgrade of the Seahawks; just one of those games for a Seahawks squad that only lost to 10+ win squads Indy, San Francisco and Arizona last year. The appropriate power rating adjustment here is San Diego up (now 2-0 ATS, even after their Monday Night Football fourth quarter meltdown), not Seattle down.
I’m not worried about Denver in the slightest either, even though they failed to cover as double digit favorites against the Chiefs. First, the refs were throwing flags when the Broncos were on defense; one after the next, extending numerous Kansas City drives. That resulted in a remarkably short game, particularly in the second half; a half with only FIVE combined possessions for the two teams prior to the Broncos kneel down on the last play.
And Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith played extremely well; converting again and again in third-and-long situations. KC finished the game with 11 third down conversions in 16 tries which allowed them to keep Peyton Manning off the field. Like Seattle, this game doesn’t warrant any power rating downgrade of the Broncos. And frankly, I’m not in any rush to upgrade the injury riddled Chiefs either, especially after pro bowlers Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry both got hurt (status unclear as of this writing) on Sunday.
But while the two defending Super Bowl teams don’t merit a power ratings adjustment downwards, two struggling contenders are clearly having problems early – the Saints and 49ers.
The Saints offense is fine; their defense is not. No team in the NFL has allowed more points than New Orleans through the first two weeks of the season. They rank #30 in yards allowed and #29 in yards per play allowed. In each of the first two weeks, a late game stop would have produced a win for Sean Payton’s squad. In each of those weeks, the Rob Ryan’s stop unit couldn’t get that elusive stop; a clear problem area moving forward.
San Francisco’s offensive line didn’t play well in August and they didn’t play particularly well against the suspect Cowboys defense in Week 1, producing only a pair of touchdowns. The Niners scored a pair of defensive TDs in that game (one gets officially graded as being a one yard TD drive for the offense, but you get my point). On the heels of their preseason struggles, it’s a huge red flag.
The 49ers secondary replaced three starters in the offseason. With Aldon Smith serving his league mandated suspension and Navarro Bowman spending the season on IR, their pass rush isn’t as devastating as it’s been, notching only a single sack against Jay Cutler on Sunday Night. With unresolved issues on both sides of the football, I’ve been downgrading San Francisco in my power ratings steadily over the past month.
Next week, I’ll continue this thought process , shining the spotlight on some "bad" teams. Is there any hope for ATS success from the bottom teams in the NFL (again, based on my numbers, the Jags, Raiders, Redskins, Giants, Bucs, Cowboys, Texans, Rams, Browns and Chiefs)? Check next week’s Wiseguy Report to find out!