NFL Week Two: Five Stats You Need to Know
by: Scott Rickenbach
NFL Week Two: Five Stats You Need to Know
Heading into Week Two of the NFL please note these stats are definitely items to consider as you look at the deep NFL card. However, this does not mean these are “plays” in the true sense of the word. That said, the hope is that the information below helps you as you “traverse” the NFL card!
1) Indy 23, Chi 17 – That’s not the score you remember seeing last week, is it? Of course it’s not, those are the first downs from the game. The point we’re trying to make is that the Colts are very likely to bounce back after a sloppy week one performance where the score board was also a little bit deceiving in the Bears 16 point win. Indy’s Peyton Manning was rusty but he’ll shake that off. The key here is that when you take away the one long 50 yard run from the Bears, their other 38 carries only netted 3.5 yards per carry. The Colts defense also held Kyle Orton “in check” and this week they face a struggling Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikings.
2) Divisional Dominance – San Diego is 14-5-1 their last 20 as a divisional favorite and they certainly will be fired up after losing to Carolina on the last play of the game last week! As for the Broncos, they are just 3-8 in their last 11 as an underdog. Of course with the line move during the week, this line is currently sitting in a pick’em range but you get the point here. The fact is that the Chargers are hungry off of a frustrating loss last week. The Broncos could be feeling a little too good about themselves after blowing out Oakland on Monday night.
3) Home, Sweet Home – The Jaguars are 7-3 in their last ten as a home favorite. Their facing a Bills team that is coming off of a “head-turner” on the scoreboard that reveals much more when you scratch underneath the surface. Buffalo scored 34 points last week but they only had 13 first downs. The Seahawks actually had more first downs even though they had just ten points to show for it. The Bills game was “the blowout that wasn’t” and the Jaguars will be looking to bounce back after last week’s loss at Tennessee. However, be sure to get the latest updates on some injuries impacting the Jacksonville offensive line.
4) No Letdown Here – Believe it or not, the Titans are actually 8-3 the week after playing Jacksonville! Also, we know the whole Vince Young thing is going to get blown out of proportion. That means potential line value here with a Tennessee club that is matched up with a Bengals team that managed just eight first downs last week at Baltimore. What is particularly disturbing about that is that the Bengals and Carson Palmer normally have big games against the Ravens. They were physically manhandled last week and now, just like last week, the Bengals must deal with another physical team!
5) Road Rout – The Giants are 10-4 as a non-division road favorite. They’re taking on a St Louis team that only managed eight first downs at Philadelphia last week. Will a return home really mean things will greatly improve for the Rams this week? That is highly unlikely as the Rams haven’t fared well as a dog outside of their weak NFC West division. St Louis is now 6-17 as a non-divisional dog and, of course, they are a big dog against the Giants with good reason. New York did take on a struggling Redskins offense in Week One but credit is still owed to New York for their strong performance on the defensive side of the ball after all the questions that were being asked about their defense coming into this season. The Rams problems are unlikely to be solved in just one week!
Early Bets - Part II
By Judd Hall
Week 2 in the NFL season is not exactly where you can separate the contenders from the pretenders. But we will get a much clearer idea of where some teams are head in the early games this Sunday.
The Colts officially opened their new stadiums on a sour not by losing to Chicago as 10 ½-point home favorites, 29-13. Kansas City looked much better than though with Damon Huard under center in a road loss to the Patriots. Washington looked like it was still running in the preseason on the road versus the Giants. While the Jags had a few chances to beat Tennessee. And the Raiders looked like…well, the Raiders.
All of these games will be on at 1:00 pm EDT…
Oakland at Kansas City (- 3½, 36)
If there is anything we can say about the Raiders’ home defeat to Denver last week is they avoided getting shutout. And that was because JaMarcus Russell figured out how to pass the ball forward to score two meaningless touchdowns late to lose 41-14. Oakland was dominated on both sides of the ball, giving up 441 yards and letting the Broncos move the chains 24 times to its 15.
Kansas City held its own against a Patriots’ unit that was reeling after losing Tom Brady for the year. The Chiefs lost their starting quarterback as well with Brody Croyle hurting his shoulder. That injury paved the way for Huard to complete eight of 12 passes for 118 yards with a touchdown and one pick.
The outlook is bleak for Oakland in this matchup as the Chiefs are 17-7 SU and 11-10-3 ATS when at home against AFC West foes.
Indianapolis (-2, 43½) at Minnesota
People are starting to wonder how well off the Colts are going to be this season after losing to Chicago last weekend. The fans have to please that Peyton Manning completed 30 of 49 passes for 257 yards and a touchdown. Indy does have to be concerned with allowing the Bears to convert 10 of 16 third downs.
It’s not like life is any better on the other side for the Vikings. Tavaris Jackson connected on 16 of 35 passes for 178 yards for a score and an interception. Luckily Minnesota had Adrian Peterson in the backfield to run 19 times for 103 yards and a touchdown.
Indianapolis normally bounces back nicely from a defeat, going 15-7 SU. However, the Vikes are in a good spot to cover at least since Indy is 9-14 ATS in this stretch as well.
New Orleans at Washington (-1, 42)
The Redskins looked about as bad as I’ve ever seen a team look in any opening weekend. They gained just 209 yards against the Giants, 84 of which were on the ground. A ground game that is supposedly the same that Joe Gibbs was running last season.
New Orleans survived a thriller at home against the Buccaneers. The Saints were able to get Drew Brees to toss three touchdowns and 343 yards. And their defense was hold Tampa Bay to converting just two of 12 third downs.
The smart money is on the Saints to come out of this week 2-0 given a look back at history. New Orleans has won its last two meetings by an average margin of 10 points. Also, the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 in the last seven contests.
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-5½, 37)
The main question for the Jaguars right now is how healthy their offensive line will be for this game. Currently, Jackson has four of its starting five o-linemen on the injury report after taking a beating against the Titans.
Buffalo’s biggest concern is trying to keep the kind of momentum going after thrashing the Seahawks in Week 1. It’s hard to think the Bills will make it a 2-0 start with an offense that had fewer first downs than Seattle (13-16) and converted just four of 16 third downs.
We could see a high scoring affair here as the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in the last four meetings. Jacksonville has gone 3-1 SU and ATS in home openers since 2004.
vegasinsider.com
Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David
Week 1 Recap
The ‘under’ posted a 9-7 mark in the first week of the NFL regular season and it actually could’ve been 11-5 if the pair of Monday Night Football games didn’t go ‘over’ their totals. Any gamblers who played the high-scoring affairs, was helped with 20 and 28-point fourth quarters in the primetime double-header on ESPN.
The Brady Factor
“Tom Brady is the only player in football worth double-digits on the betting line,” said Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmakers Mike Seba. The company that supplies the lines to the majority of casinos in Nevada sent out the Jets as three-point favorites against the Brady-less Patriots, while the ‘over/under’ was 38.5.
Currently, the total for the AFC East matchup is hovering around 37 at most shops. New England saw the ‘over’ go 12-7 last year, largely due to Brady and an offense that averaged 34 points per game. The last time head coach Bill Belichick and company saw a total under 40 (38.5) was in the 2007 when the Pats hosted the Jets in the AFC Wild Card game.
The Jets and Pats both saw the ‘under’ cash in their openers and both ran the football. New York handed off 31 times, while only tossing 22 passes against the Dolphins. New England was more balanced (29 pass/28 rush) against the Chiefs, but most are expecting a large dose of Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris on Sunday.
Shootout in Dallas?
The ‘over/under’ of 47 listed between the Cowboys and Eagles is the highest total in Week 2 and is clearly a case of public perception. Dallas lit up the Browns in a 28-10 road victory last Sunday and probably could’ve dropped 40 if needed, while the Eagles embarrassed the Rams 38-3 in wire-to-wire fashion. Both Tony Romo (75%, 320 yards) and Donovan McNabb (361 yards, 3 TDs) looked sharp in the wins, but face much stiffer tests here. You can make a serious case and say this game will feature the best defensive backs in the league, as the Eagles Asante Samuel, Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown counter the Cowboys’ Terence Newman, Adam Jones and Anthony Henry.
High totals in this NFC East divisional game have been common of late, watching 49, 46.5 and 48 posted by the oddsmakers in the previous three meetings. In the last four years (8 regular season games), the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 every season. If you’re a trend player, watch Monday and then go the opposite come round two in Week 17 from Philadelphia.
Forty-Something
Green Bay at Detroit (45): The ‘over’ went 2-0 in the two regular season battles last year, including a combined 63 points (37-26) on Thanksgiving Day. Detroit’s defense looked atrocious in Week 1, giving 474 total yards to Atlanta. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was efficient (18-of-22, 178 yards, 1 TD) in last week’s win, but will the Packers try to run the ball more on the road? Last year the Packers saw the ‘over’ go 14-4 on the season, including a 7-1 mark away from home. Detroit watched the ‘over’ close the 2007 campaign on an 8-1 run.
Indianapolis at Minnesota (43.5): The Colts were held to 13 points by the Bears in their home opener last week, well below last year’s average of 27 PPG. QB Peyton Manning looked rusty, but could have a breakout performance against the Vikings’ secondary. Also, don’t be surprised to see Minnesota ground and pound like Chicago (183 yards) did last Sunday to the Colts.
San Diego at Denver (46): The Broncos posted a league-high 41 points in Week 1, racking up 441 yards of total offense. San Diego likes playing in Denver, posting 35 and 41 in their two previous trips. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings. The Broncos saw the ‘over’ go 6-2 at Invesco Field last season.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (44.5): The Steelers and Browns have watched the ‘over’ cash in the last seven encounters. Pitt nipped Cleveland 31-28 last year, which saw the combined 59 points jump ‘over’ the closing total of 47. After watching the Steelers post 35 in three quarters and Cleveland give up 28 in the same amount of time last week, more fireworks seem probable in Sunday’s finale.
Sweet ‘n Low
The lowest total on the board in Week 2 features an AFC West rivalry game between the Chiefs and Raiders. It appears the number is based on three factors – the run-first coaching approach, the inability to pass consistently and more importantly the recent history. The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles and the closing numbers on the last four games ranged from 34.5 to 36.
While a 13-10 outcome seems very doable, all you need is both clubs to get to 17 in this one and you’ve got yourself a winner. It should be noted that neither team accomplished that in Week 1 as the Chiefs lost to the Pats (17-10) and Raiders were embarrassed by the Broncos (41-14). Quarterback Damon Huard (67%, 118 yards, 1 TD) will get the start for the Chiefs, while the Raiders look to JaMarcus Russell (2 TDs).
Best of the Rest – Trends
# Jacksonville and Buffalo have watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in the last four meetings, including a combined 50 and 51 points the last two battles.
# The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run between Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
# Seattle and San Francisco watched the ‘under’ go 2-0 (24-0, 23-3) in both of the regular season games last year.
vegasinsider.com