NFL Week 3 Betting Recap
By Fairway Jay
For over a decade, Fairway Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing pointspread winners.
Week 3 NFL favorites went 10-6 straight up and 5-11 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 20-26-2 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. There were eight division games in Week 3, and home underdogs went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. For the season, home underdogs are 6-7 SU and 8-4-1 ATS. The over-the-total trend finally cooled off with a 6-10 O/U mark. Overall, totals are now 28-18-2 O/U on the season.
Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (30 or more yards) went 6-5 ATS for the week and my rushing guidelines have now gone 18-11 ATS. The Raiders busted loose on the ground again with 234 yards rushing (7.3 ypr), led by Darren McFadden’s 177 yards on 9.0 ypr. Impressive performance against a Jets defense that allowed the most yards rushing in a game under head coach Rex Ryan.
I have a proprietary database since 2000 showing rushing, passing and other stats of record. Projecting rushing success is one of the key statistical categories in uncovering pointspread winners. Teams that have at least a 30-yard rushing advantage over their opponent cover the pointspread an average of 76% of the time (over the past 11 years), and no other handicapper in the nation will provide you such information to obtain relevant results.
My experience and unprecedented past success is in large part based on my ability to project which teams will have more success controlling the ball, line of scrimmage and running the football. Invariably, I’m always asked (or told) that the NFL game has evolved into a greater passing game; and after some of the strong offensive showings and passing attacks the opening two weeks, who could argue? Projecting good and bad quarterback play is also part of my evaluation and handicap of a matchup. However, it has been and will continue to be this professional handicapper’s opinion that rushing yards are a more meaningful stat compared to passing yards (when projecting ATS results), which can be accumulated against soft coverage or prevent defenses when a team is behind by margin or playing catch-up.
Note that even when our handicap of a game plays out as expected, the ATS wins do not always pull through. We suffered another tough loss with the Jaguars (+3.5) on Sunday, despite correctly projecting their running game advantage and expected slowdown of quarterback Cam Newton and the Panthers offense (265 yards, 4.3 ypp). Yet a late touchdown instead of a go-ahead field goal for the Jags and their inability to score in the second half provided the margin of victory needed for a Panthers ATS win. We did cash a pair of big underdog winners with the Bills and Colts, and added a totals winner on Monday night with the Cowboys/Redskins game under.
I also keep track of yards-per-play (ypp) and yards-per-point stats to help me determine a team’s offensive efficiency and how they will fair against an opposing defense. Those two stats are an effective measure of a team’s ability to move the football and score; whether on the ground or through the air. The top Week 3 offensive performances in victory included the Ravens (553 yards, 7.3 yppl), Saints (452, 6.7) and Bills (448, 7.5). Dismal offensive showings in defeat included the Bengals (228, 4.3), Broncos (231, 3.7), Rams (244, 3.9) and Colts (241, 3.9).