Non-Conference Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs
A mix of Sunday, 1:00 and 4:00 p.m. EDT football games each have a distinct way of playing out until the end of the fourth quarter. Whether it’s the New York Giants looking to win one at home to continue it’s miraculous run from last season’s Super Bowl or the Steelers expecting to take its first ‘W’ on the road against the Eagles since 1965, four total non-conference games are sure to excite.
Just a quick trip back in time reveals that underdogs were not financially viable during Week 2, going 3-12 straight up and 5-8-2 ATS (spreads at the closing bell). And while home teams also slacked with a 6-9 SU record, a 4-9-2 ATS report truly broke the bank of backers that invested.
Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants (-13½, 41½) – 1:00 p.m. EDT
First off, the Giants have been a financial monster for gamblers by returning funds with a 16-5 ATS run in their last 21 games. Combine that with an 8-3 ATS record in New York’s last 11 versus a team with a losing record and these obvious trends become quite appealing.
Wide receiver Chad Johnson and the Bengals have split their head-to-heads with the G-Men at three games apiece in the last six (as well as ATS), but we’re looking at a club who’s a far cry from the offensive threat they’ve been in the past few seasons.
Cincinnati has been unable to get airborne with QB Carson Palmer (228 yards, 37.1 QB rating) having found the end zone for a grand total of zero TDs. What could prove more disastrous is the team’s defensive vulnerability by allowing 326.5 YPG, with an unprecedented 203 YPG allowed on the ground.
If we put one-plus-one together, this could prove to be a huge day for Big Blue’s rushing attack. Between backs Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward, a total of 354 yards in 63 attempts with two TDs have been manufactured. Jacobs’ has been the bread winner thus far with 209 yards donated to the rushing total.
Also watch for New York’s DE Justin Tuck and DT Fred Robinson to build on their combined 17 tackles (eight for losses) and five sacks (Tuck recorded an interception for a TD in the last win over St. Louis).
The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings.
Kansas City at Atlanta (-5½, 36½) – 1:00 p.m. EDT
This matchup continues the week’s theme of overwhelming home favorites (only one home team has been installed as the underdog; Green Bay). When the Falcons are installed as 5½-point favorites, what does that say about Kansas City?
It says that the Chiefs can’t be trusted by backers, especially after an imploding loss against the troubled Raiders in Week 2. Kansas City has gone through three QBs with unknown Tyler Thigpen expected to take opening game snaps. On top of the signal caller problems is corner back Patrick Surtain’s status as ‘out’ and safeties Bernard Pollard and Jarred Page’s combined 25 tackles. You may think that this is a good thing, but so many tackles registered by two safeties in two weeks is good indication that the cornerbacks have been burnt.
With Oakland dispatching Kansas City last week (23-8), public perception of how bad the Chiefs are have driven the point spread from a three-point opening to its current 5½. The Falcons rookie field general, Matt Ryan took a step backwards last week, throwing for 158 yards and two picks. But good news may be coming Ryan’s way as reports indicate that Kansas City will be starting two rookie cornerbacks.
If Atlanta’s RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood (combined for 373 rushing yards and three scores) can continue running the ball with conviction then there’s no doubt that the Chiefs will be facing major problems (as if they’re not already).
New Orleans at Denver (-5½, 51) – 4:05 p.m. EDT
Just when New Orleans looked to be turning up the juice a loss to Washington derailed the team’s plans of offensive dominance. Specifically, QB Drew Breese and his 343 yard with three touchdowns in Week 1 compared to 216 passing yards with one TD and two picks in Week 2 (this was the loss to Washington).
Even with referee Ed Hochui’s game deciding call on what clearly appeared to be a fumble by Denver signal caller, Jay Cutler last week, Denver has been rolling with its high powered offense. The Broncos have been firing on all 11 cylinders, led by Cutler’s seasonal stats of 650 passing yards with six TDs. Many questioned if WR Eddie Royal’s Week 1 performance of nine receptions for 146 yards with a score was just an aberration. Then came a follow up in the win over the Chargers. While Royal grabbed the ball five times for just 37 yards, the game winning TD pass with the two-point conversion put an exclamation point on what this kid is capable of.
And then there was Denver wide out, Brandon Marshall’s 18 receptions last week, which set a single-game record for the organization. The weapons don’t stop there as WRs Tony Scheffler (136 receiving yards, two TDs), Brandon Stokley (72 yards), Darrell Jackson (48 yards, one TD) and RBs Selvin Young (114 rushing yards, one score) and Michael Pittman (42 rushing yards, three trips across the end zone) have all contributed one way or another to Cutler’s aerial assault.
The Saints have been a poor club in Week 3 games, going 3-8 ATS in their last 11. For a totals angle, look at the ‘over’ going 21-6-1 in the Broncos’ last 28 games and a 12-1-1 ‘over’ record in the last 14 home games.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-3½, 44½) – 4:15 p.m. EDT
What could be shaping up to be one of more anticipated games of the week, Pittsburgh finds itself entering Philadelphia with a QB suffering from a sprained shoulder. The Steelers’ slinger Ben Roethlisberger was reported to be suffering from a dislocated throwing shoulder. Those allegations have since been considered erroneous.
We talk about Roethlisberger because of his methodical approach, a 133.9 QB rating and the ability to spread the ball around the field. Team thanks should also be given to running back Willie Parker who continues to run through defenses like butter, up to 243 rushing yards with three trips across the goal line.
Then there’s Pitt's ‘D’ unit responsible for holding Houston and Cleveland to 11½-point per game. And if history has anything to say about this contest it’s that the Steelers have registered a 5-1 SU and ATS record against the Eagles in the last six, while holding their opponent to 15.7 PPG. Expect cornerback Deshea Townsend to make a return to the lineup. His 13 interceptions in five seasons have been enormous for Pittsburgh.
Not to leave the Eagles in the dust but a high scoring affair in Dallas last week solidified the belief that this club’s defense needs a tune up. With a 2-10 ATS home record versus AFC opponents in the last 12, backers are going to have to hold on tight in this one.
What could prove important is that the Steelers haven’t won a game during the Super Bowl era in Philadelphia. The last time the Steelers celebrated a win against the Eagles on the road was in 1965.
Philly’s QB Donovan McNabb is 46-for-70 for 642 passing yards. His four touchdown passes and no interceptions equates to an efficient 114.1 QB rating. Watch for McNabb’s new favorite target in rookie receiver DeSean Jackson, who’s pulled in 12 catches for 216 yards. With wide outs Reggie Brown (hamstring) and Kevin Curtis (hernia) shaken up, expect the Steelers to zero in on the youthful Jackson.
Philly is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games.
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Division Battles
By Brian Edwards
**Texans at Titans**
–Most books are listing Tennessee (2-0 straight up, 2-0 agains the spread) as a 4 1/2-point favorite with a total of 39. The Texans are plus 170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).
–Jeff Fisher’s squad is looking strong following wins both SU and ATS over Jacksonville (17-10) and at Cincinnati (24-7). Rookie running back Chris Johnson ran for 109 yards on just 19 carries against the Bengals, while Keith Bulluck blocked a punt and recovered the ball in the end zone for a touchdown.
–Houston (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) saw its home opener against Baltimore cancelled last week due to Hurricane Ike. The Texans opened the year by getting trounced 38-17 at Pittsburgh as seven-point underdogs. Matt Schaub completed 25-of-33 passes for 202 yards, one TD but two interceptions. Andre Johnson hauled in 10 receptions for 112 yards.
--With Titans QB Vince Young still out with a knee injury, Fisher has made it clear that Collins is in a position to keep the job if he remains effective. To date, Collins has connected on 69.6 percent of his throws with a 1/0 TD-INT ratio.
–"We're going to get Vince back, get his knee back, work with him, get him back involved in the offense," Fisher told the Associated Press this week. "But Kerry's going to go ahead and play for us until either he struggles or whatever else happens."
**Dolphins at Patriots**
--Most books are listing New England (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) as a 13-point favorite with a total of 36 ½. The Dolphins are plus 500 on the money line (risk $100 to win $500).
–New England won a 17-10 decision over Kansas City in its season opener, but the Patriots failed to take the cash as 16-point favorites. Even worse, perennial Pro-Bowl QB Tom Brady was lost for the season.
–In his first start since he was in high school in 1999, Matt Cassel took over under center last week and led the Pats to a 19-10 victory at New York. New England took the cash against the Jets as a 2 1/2-point road ‘chalk.’ Cassel managed the game efficiently and didn’t make any mistakes, completing 16-of-23 throws for 165 yards and zero interceptions.
--Miami (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) lost its opener to the Jets at home and then got trounced 31-10 at Arizona in Week 2.
–The ‘under’ is 2-0 for the Patriots, 1-1 for the ‘Fins.
**Jags at Colts**
–Who would’ve thought that these teams would collide in Week 3 with only one win combined? This is always a crucial AFC South showdown, but this meeting has an additional feel of desperation, especially for the winless Jaguars.
–Most spots have installed Indianapolis (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) as a 4 1/2-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 41-42 range. Jacksonville (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) is plus 175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175).
--Jack Del Rio’s team has an offensive line decimated by injuries. The Jags’ potent running game with the combination of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew has been rendered ineffective because the RBs have had no room to operate. The Jags will be missing three starters on the offensive line again this week.
--Jacksonville lost its home opener to Buffalo last week, dropping a 20-16 decision as a five-point favorite.
--Jacksonville QB David Garrard threw three interceptions during the entire 2007 season. To date in '08, he has a 1/3 TD-INT ratio.
--Indy has had plenty of its own issues. The Colts took a 29-13 beating at home from Chicago in Week 1. Then at Minnesota in Week 2, the Vikings jumped out to a 15-0 lead late in the third quarter. However, Peyton Manning hooked up with Anthony Gonzalez on a big play and the deficit was cut to 15-7 going into the final stanza. From there, it was all Colts, as they pulled out a 18-15 come-from-behind win.
--Tony Dungy's squad still has concerns about its offense, particularly the ground attack. RB Joseph Addai is averaging just 2.4 yards per carry.
**Rams at Seahawks**
–Most books have tabbed Seattle (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) as a 9 1/2-point favorite with a total of 44. Bettors can back the Rams on the money line for a plus 330 return.
–St. Louis (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) appears to be in competition with the Chiefs as to who the NFL’s worst team is. The Rams have twice taken woodshed treatment, including last week’s 41-13 home loss to the Giants. Back in Week 1, the Eagles trashed St. Louis 38-3.
–Seattle is right there with Jacksonville and Minnesota as the most surprising teams to be winless going into Week 3. The Seahawks got drilled at Buffalo in Week 1. Next, they blew a big lead and lost 33-30 to San Francisco as nine-point home favorites.
--Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck was sacked eight times last week. He is playing without his two best WRs -- Deion Branch and Bobby Engram.
--Hasselbeck has completed just 45.5 percent of his passes with a mediocre 1/3 TD-INT ratio.
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