NFL Week 3 Pre Season Betting News and Notes

Thursday, 8/25/2011

CAROLINA at CINCINNATI
CAROLINA: 6-0 Under in all NFLX games
CINCINNATI: 0-8 ATS vs. NFC South

CLEVELAND at PHILADELPHIA
CLEVELAND: 8-2 Over in all games
PHILADELPHIA: 1-6 ATS off Thursday game

WASHINGTON at BALTIMORE
WASHINGTON: 2-12 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
BALTIMORE: 15-4 Under off an Over

Friday, 8/26/2011

GREEN BAY at INDIANAPOLIS
GREEN BAY: 28-12 Over as favorite
INDIANAPOLIS: 26-12 Over as underdog

ST LOUIS at KANSAS CITY
ST LOUIS: 7-1 ATS vs. AFC
KANSAS CITY: 0-7 ATS as underdog

Saturday, 8/27/2011

NY JETS at NY GIANTS
NY JETS: 13-4 ATS vs. Giants
NY GIANTS: 6-1 Over off home win by 10+ pts

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO
JACKSONVILLE: 8-0 Over off BB ATS losses
BUFFALO: 13-4 ATS after scoring 17 pts or less BB games

ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH
ATLANTA: 23-9 ATS off SU loss
PITTSBURGH: 6-1 ATS as favorite

MIAMI at TAMPA BAY
MIAMI: 26-12 ATS as underdog
TAMPA BAY: 7-0 Under at home vs. Miami

NEW ENGLAND at DETROIT
NEW ENGLAND: 8-2 Over after scoring 30+ pts
DETROIT: 6-0 ATS off non-conf game

CHICAGO at TENNESSEE
CHICAGO: 0-3 ATS after scoring 14 pts or less
TENNESSEE: 1-5 ATS after allowing 7 pts 1st half BB games

DALLAS at MINNESOTA
DALLAS: 1-6 ATS as a road favorite
MINNESOTA: 5-1 ATS in dome games

HOUSTON at SAN FRANCISCO
HOUSTON: 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
SAN FRANCISCO: 5-1 ATS as home underdog

SEATTLE at DENVER
SEATTLE: 21-9 ATS off SU loss
DENVER: 22-9 ATS vs. NFC West

SAN DIEGO at ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO: 20-8 Over off an Under
ARIZONA: 0-3 ATS off an Over

Sunday, 8/28/2011

NEW ORLEANS at OAKLAND
NEW ORLEANS: 27-12 ATS in road games
OAKLAND: 25-11 Under off an Under

PLAYBOOK PRESEASON 2 MINUTE HANDICAP

Thursday, August 25

Carolina *0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS away... *1-6 dogs
CINCINNATI *2-7 SUATS vs NFC... Smith: 2-6 SUATS Game Three

Cleveland SERIES: visitor 0-3 SUATS... 1-5 SUATS away...*4-9 vs NFC
PHILADELPHIA *2-12 vs AFC... Reid: *9-18 fav / *8-15 home

Washington 4-0 Game Three... *3-16 dogs... *2-9 away...
BALTIMORE *6-1 SUATS vs NFC... 0-4 UNDER Game Three... Harbaugh: *4-2 home

Friday, August 26

Green Bay *4-0-1 vs AFC... 5-1 dogs
INDIANAPOLIS *11-3 SU & 12-1-1 ATS vs NFC... *4-11 SUATS home... *2-7 SUATS favs... Caldwell *1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS all games / 0-2 SUATS Game Three

St. Louis SERIES: 8-4-1 SU & 10-3 ATS... *7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS vs AFC... 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS away... Spagnuolo: *6-2 SUATS all games / 4-0 away / 2-0 SUATS Game Three
KANSAS CITY *2-12 home...*3-19 vs NFC... 1-6 SUATS Game Three... 0-6 UNDER Game Three... Haley: *1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS all games

Saturday, August 27

Jacksonville 5-0 Game Three... Del Rio: *10-1-1 dog / *12-3-1 away / 6-2 Game Three...
BUFFALO 2-8 SUATS favs... 2-7 SUATS home... Gailey: *3-11 SU & 4-10 ATS all games

NY Jets SERIES: 14-4-1... *8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS away... *17-3 dogs... 1-6 UNDER Game Three
NY GIANTS 3-6-1 vs AFC... 1-7 UNDER Game Three

Atlanta 4-0-1 Game Three... *6-1-1 dog... *5-1-1 away
PITTSBURGH *4-0 SUATS vs NFC... *7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS home... *5-1 favs... Tomlin: *6-2 home

Miami 1-6 UNDER Game Three... Sparano: *5-1 SUATS away / *3-0 SUATS dog
TAMPA BAY SERIES: 6-2... *1-4 SUATS home... Morris: 3-0 w/ revenge / 2-0 SUATS Game Three

New England 0-3 Game Three... *1-5 favs
DETROIT *6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS home... *8-2 vs AFC... *3-7-1 favs... Schwartz: 2-0 SUATS Game Three / *3-1 home

Dallas SERIES: 2-4 UNDER... 6-18 SUATS road openers
MINNESOTA 7-1 favs... 6-1 home

Houston *8-2 dogs... *2-6 SUATS vs NFC... Kubiak: 8-2 dog > 2
SAN FRANCISCO 15-5 Game Three... 7-2 SU & 5-3-1 2nd home game

Chicago 5-1 OVER Game Three... Smith: 2-5 SUATS Game Three
TENNESSEE *7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS home... 0-6 SUATS pick or dog 2nd home game

Seattle 21-6 SU & 20-7 ATS Game Three (11-2 away)... Carroll: *7-2 dog / *12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS vs AFC
DENVER SERIES: 4-1 SUATS... Fox: *3-12 SUATS L15G

San Diego Turner: *3-7-2 pick or dog / *9-13-3 vs NFC
ARIZONA *1-7 SUATS favs... *1-5 SUATS vs AFC... 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS home...

Sunday, August 28

New Orleans 4-0 SUATS Game Three... *6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS away... *10-4 vs AFC... Payton: 4-1 SUATS Game Three
OAKLAND SERIES: 1-3... *1-8 OVER vs NFC

Atlanta starters will play into third quarter

Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith hinted that his starters will get plenty of playing time during Saturday's game at Pittsburgh. Smith said the team will switch from training camp to regular season mode which will include actual game planning and film study.

“In terms of the amount of snaps that they are going to play, I don’t know that we’ve sat down and decided,” Smith said. “But we want to keep those starting units in there and get them as many exposures as possible.”

Tampa Bay will game plan for Dolphins

Tampa Bay says it will game plan more for Saturday’s game against Miami. Offensive coordinator Greg Olson has the team studying film and preparing for various schemes and blitz packages.

“You know you cannot say you are 100 percent looking ahead to Detroit,” Freeman said. “I mean, obviously we have been integrating Detroit slowly more and more like their blitzes and their specialty stuff kind of taking a look at that and keeping it in back of your mind. At the same time, this week the priority focus is on the Dolphins. This week is the first week that is back to an actual game week structure where we do the installs for the Miami Dolphins and kind of get everybody back acclimated with that process. So this week’s focus is on the Dolphins. If you’ve got a little downtime you start looking at Detroit, but right now the focus is on the Dolphins.”

Washington searches for answers in the red zone

Through the first two weeks of the NFL preseason, the Washington Redskins have produced more yards (866) than any team in the league yet have scored only 32 points. The reason for the discrepancy is repeated failures in the red zone with two touchdowns in nine attempts. Heading into Thursday's game at Baltimore, the Redskins staff has devised a full game plan in hopes of a higher rate of success inside the 20.

"I think most teams throughout the National Football League, the third preseason game - sometimes the fourth preseason game - you get back into the swing of things on how you do things during the season," Redskins coach Mike Shanahan said. "You almost have to do it."

Ryan says no game planning for Jets

NY Jets head coach Rex Ryan said he will play his starters through the first series of the second half for Saturday's game against the Giants. Ryan later said that unlike other teams, the Jets will not game plan. Important to note, this is the only Week 3 matchup involving two teams that will play one another during the regular season (Week 16).

“We always hold back in the preseason, but we still blitz and we still get after it,” Ryan said. “But we don’t game plan. A lot of times teams will game plan. I heard a young man from Washington say that they’re game-planning for the Ravens and all that. We never game plan defensively, anyway, in a preseason game.”

Green Bay starters will play most of first half vs. Indianapolis

The Green Bay Packers will play their starters "most of the first half" against Indianapolis on Friday according to head coach Mike McCarthy. Because of the shortened practice time and established first-string, McCarthy said that he wants a better look at his free agents and rookies.

"It's a little different than prior years as far as dress rehearsal, but we'll play our starters close to a half," McCarthy told Newsradio 620 WTMJ's Greg Matzek and Gene Mueller on "Wisconsin's Morning News."

That's definitely part of the equation," explained McCarthy. "You really want to be smart with your ones. You have to trust your practice structure and what you get out of practice so that it does carry over to that specific group for the season, but on the flip side, you have to find out about the new members of your football teams, particularly on special teams...we need more special teams work."

Harbaugh wants Ravens victory over Redskins

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh voiced his desire for a win over the Washington Redskins tonight. The Ravens reportedly watched film and even game planned some.

"This is the biggest dress rehearsal for a real game," Ravens outside linebacker Jarret Johnson said. "We matched more film for them than we did the other games. The first preseason game, you barely watch any film on your opponent. Second, you watch a little bit.

"This game, we actually broke down some plays and watched them on film and game-planned them a little bit. This is definitely the biggest dress rehearsal as far as a preseason game."

"We want to win, we always want to win," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "The guys who are going to have to win the game in the fourth quarter are going to be the young guys, just like they were able to do last week. And that was good to see. But yes, we want to see us developing into a winning and a championship football team.

49ers Harbaugh says he will pull starters early

San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh appears to be taking the unconventional approach to Saturday's game at Houston. Harbaugh said that he will pull his starters earlier than the standard philosophy used by most teams for Week 3 of the preseason. His reasoning is to get a closer look as his reserves.

Steelers plan on testing out no-huddle

The Pittsburgh Steelers claim they will run some no-huddle offense the final two games of the preseason. Head coach Mike Tomlin added that the starters will play the entire first half against Atlanta on Saturday.

"I love it, and so do the wide receivers," Roethlisberger said. "I like the change of pace. I like the up-tempo, and it's hard for the defense to substitute."

"We want to establish ourselves and what we want to do," Roethlisberger said. "We may go some no-huddle, and if we do that then I would like to execute that well."

I will keep updating this post as I get week 3 game info so keep checking back.

Week 3 NFL Preseason Betting Kicks Off Thursday
By: Adam Markowitz

A three-pack of NFL betting duels will take place on Thursday night, the first night of the preseason's third week. Six teams will take to the field in what should amount to their "tune-up" game for the preseason.

The clash between the Washington Redskins (2-0) and the Baltimore Ravens (1-1) is the showcase game of the bunch, televised nationally on ESPN at 5:00 p.m. (PT).

The 'Skins have gotten off to a great start in the exhibition campaign thanks to a stifling defense. The Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers have only combined to score 10 points off of head coach Mike Shanahan's D, by far the best mark in the league. Neither team made it to even 200 total yards against Washington either.

Of course, the big question is whether it'll be "Becks" or "Rex" captaining this offense come Week 1 of the regular season. Rex Grossman has the second most passing yards in the preseason of any quarterback, throwing for 295 yards and a TD against one pick. John Beck didn't play in the opening week of the preseason against the Steelers, but he did go 14-of-17 for 140 yards last week against Indianapolis.

Expect Baltimore to throw a heck of a lot at both of these questionable quarterbacks. The Ravens have only allowed 26 total points in games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, and they are expected to once again put up solid numbers against the Redskins.

Joe Flacco hasn't looked his greatest in the preseason, completing just 50.0 percent of his passes for 184 yards. Flacco though, did hook up with the newly acquired WR Lee Evans three times for 68 yards in his debut last week.

The running game for Baltimore has been stout as well, coming up with over 100 yards in both games in the preseason. Ray Rice ripped off a 26-yard TD run last week against KC, and he ended the day with seven runs for 44 yards.

The Ravens are 5½-point favorites on the DonBest odds screen over Washington, while the 'total' for ESPN's Thursday Night Football is set at 33½.

Before these two kick it off at M&T Bank Stadium, there will be two other games in NFL preseason betting action.

At Paul Brown Stadium at 4:00 p.m. (PT), the Cincinnati Bengals will be looking for an offensive jolt for the first time this year when they take on the Carolina Panthers.

Cincy has just 10 total points and an average of 204.0 YPG in the preseason under the direction of rookie Andy Dalton and a host of historically underachieving backups. Dalton has been picked off three times in his first two professional games, and he has yet to throw a TD pass.

Meanwhile for Carolina, Cam Newton will get his second career start. He has had slightly more success than his fellow rookie counterpart, accounting for 203 passing yards thus far in the preseason.

Cincy is favored by 2½-points, while the 'total' is set at 34.

In the other preseason clash on Thursday, the Philadelphia Eagles are 6½-point favorites over the visiting Cleveland Browns.

These two teams are both 1-1 in the preseason, but Cleveland is getting a ton of disrespect in spite of the fact that Colt McCoy has the most TD passes thus far with four. He has also yet to throw a pick and is completing 67.9 percent of his passes.

Mike Kafka has thrown for 292 yards and two scores of his own though, and the hope is that home field advantage and the fact that this newly built defense with DBs Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Asante Samuel will be able to shut down the Browns.

System plays to consider for Week 3
By Fairway Jay

Here is a preseason Super System from a database encompassing over 25 years of technical situations. While I tend to be more of a fundamental handicapper using statistical and situational analysis to form conclusions, technical systems are also considered and can be utilized to support certain plays. Of course, other factors like injuries, weather and of course the betting line must be understood as technical analysis alone can have more definitive changes in results with adjusted betting lines over time.

However, let’s take a look at this Game 3 preseason NFL system, and know that angles, systems and trends are just a small part of the puzzle when putting together the final analysis on a match-up and game. Closing lines vs. widely available lines closer to game time can be argued when using these SU/ATS systems, but for the most part these situations are accurate.

Play against and Game 3 team off back-to-back SU/ATS losses versus an opponent off exactly one win, if the last loss was by more than 8 points ATS.

Green Bay (-8.5) at Indianapolis

The Colts (0-2 SU/ATS) fall right on the line in their Game 3 matchup with Green Bay, having lost last week 16-3 as a 5-point underdog (8 points ATS). You make the call.

Jacksonville at Buffalo (-1)

The Bills (0-2 SU/ATS) also fall right on the line against Jacksonville, as they lost last week 24-10 as a 6-point underdog (8 points ATS).

Those are the only two games to consider this week, although both fall right on the number of 8, and the actual system says by more than 8 points ATS. However, with line moves and adjustments, some of these results could be close to meeting the system parameters just like the two above.

Preseason Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall

Following are some NFL preseason tech trends and angles for this weekend's games. Keep an eye on possible weather situations in a few locales as Hurricane Irene prepares to move north along the eastern seaboard...

Green Bay at Indianapolis (Friday)...Indy continues to lag in preseason, 0-2 vs. line this summer, now 2-8 vs. line for Jim Caldwell since 2009, and 5-14 vs. line in exhibitions dating to 2007 and the last two Tony Dungy years. Pack 9-3 vs. points last 12 preseason tilts for Mike McCarthy and has won and covered its third exhibition game the past three years. Green Bay also "over" 13-2 last 15 in preseason (2-0 "over" this summer).

St. Louis at Kansas City (Friday)...Chiefs continue to flounder in preseason, now 0-10 SU and vs. line for Todd Haley since 2009, and 1-17 vs. spread since 2007, dating to the last two Herm Edwards years. KC was "over" last week at Ravens but has been "under" 8-2 for Haley since 2009. Rams 7-3 vs. spread in preseason for Steve Spagnuolo since 2009 (1-1 in 2011 vs. points), and have also won straight up in five straight and 7 of last 8 in summer. St. Louis "over" 5-1 in exhibitions since last year as well, and has covered last three in preseason vs. cross-state Chiefs (though teams didn't play in 2010).

NY Jets at NY Giants (Saturday)...Jets used to dominate this annual preseason Big Apple scrap, although Giants bounced back for 31-16 win and cover in 2010, breaking Jets' 3-game streak. Rex Ryan alternating Ws and LS in preseason since last year (pattern would forecast an "L" for this game). Giants HC Tom Coughlin hasn't won or covered preseason game three for the past four years.

Jacksonville at Buffalo (Saturday)...After "overs" for Chan Gailey on all four preseason games LY, Bills "under" first two this summer. Note that Jags have won and covered their third preseason game each of the past four years for HC Jack Del Rio. Jags were also 6-0-1 vs. mark their last 7 preseason on the road prior to losing opener two weeks ago at New England.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh (Saturday)...Mike Tomlin 5-0 SU and vs. line at home in preseason since 2009. Tomlin also "under" 15-4 in exhibitions since assuming command of Steelers in 2007. Falcs also "under" 9-5 in preseason for Mike Smith since 2008, and are 7-1 vs. number last 8 as exhibition dog.

Miami at Tampa Bay (Saturday)...Tony Sparano was a good preseason coach his first two years with Miami (6-1-1 vs. line) before faltering to 1-3 last season; he's back to form this season, however, winning and covering first two. Sparano also "under" 10-4 in preseason since 2008. The annual summer clash vs. Bucs has gone "under" each of the past three years as well. TB 3-1 vs. line in preseason after a SU loss for Raheem Morris since 2009.

New England at Detroit (Saturday)...Both 2-0 SU and vs. line this preseason, and both also "over" first two in summer of 2011. Pats also "over" 7-1 last 8 in preseason. Note that Belichick hasn't been placing extra emphasis on game three exhibition results lately, failing to cover that game each of the last three years. Lions 11-3 vs. spread in preseason since 2008 and have covered 7 of last 8 in exhibition play for Jim Schwartz. Lions also "over" their last five in summer action.

Chicago at Tennessee (Saturday)...Titans a surprising 2-0 in preseason for new HC Mike Munchak after indifferent summer form the past few years for Jeff Fisher. Tennessee also "under" first two this August. Lovie Smith now 1-5 vs. line in exhibition play since last season after Monday blowout loss at Giants. Bears also 2-5 vs. spread last 7 as exhibition visitor.

Dallas at Minnesota (Saturday)...Note that Dallas hasn't covered its next-to-last preseason game the past four years, and Jason Garrett 0-2 vs. spread this summer. Vikes, meanwhile, have covered preseason game three each of the past three years, also "under" 9-3 last 12 in exhibitions.

Houston at San Francisco (Saturday)...SF's new HC Jim Harbaugh "under" first two in this year's preseason slate. Houston's Gary Kubiak 3-1 vs. line in preseason game three since 2007 and now "over" 14-4 in summer since 2007.

Seattle at Denver (Saturday)...John Fox was a notorious preseason spread underachiever at Carolina (4-12 vs. line from 2007-10), but has covered his first two this August with the Broncos. Fox also managed to cover two of last three in third games of preseason with Panthers. Broncos "over" 7-2 last nine exhibitions as well. Seattle had covered 10 straight in preseason prior to Pete Carroll's arrival last year; Seahawks 2-4 SU and vs. spread in exhibition play since.

San Diego at Arizona (Saturday)...Note that Norv is 0-4 vs. line in third preseason game since taking over Bolts in 2007. Meanwhile, Ken Whisenhunt is 3-1 SU and vs. line in third preseason game since taking over Cards in 2007.

New Orleans at Oakland (Sunday)...Hue Jackson looking like a "poor man's Norv Turner" this preseason, with Raiders 0-2 SU and vs. Line on his watch. Raiders had also lost and failed to cover the past three years in third preseason game. Oakland also "over" 8-2 last 10 in preseason despite last week's "under" at SF. Meanwhile, Saints have been super-sharp in penultimate preseason game for Sean Payton, winning and covering convincingly each of the past three years, and NO is 12-5 vs. line last 17 in exhibition play. Saints have also covered last two preseason games following a SU loss.