Week 4 Openers
By Kevin Rogers
Three weeks into the NFL season has given us many surprises, including the unlikely 3-0 starts by both Detroit and Buffalo, who were last-place teams in 2010. On the flip side, the Eagles, Falcons, and Bears - all playoff squads from last season - have stumbled to a 1-2 start out of the gate.
Each week we compare the opening numbers from the M Resort in July to this past Sunday's openers for Week 4 of the NFL. Some of the following lines will be shocking considering the state of several of these teams after three weeks.
Vikings at Chiefs
July opener: Kansas City -5
Sunday opener: Minnesota -1
It's never easy to start an NFL preview with a pair of winless teams going at it, but Kansas City and Minnesota have started 0-3 in very different ways. The Vikings squandered a pair of substantial leads in home losses to the Buccaneers and Lions, while the Chiefs finally lost a game by less than five touchdowns in Week 3 at San Diego.
Minnesota has scored a grand total of six points in the second half/overtime in three games, even though the Vikings are 2-1 ATS. The Chiefs are already without Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry due to knee injuries, but Kansas City cashed as 14-point underdogs in a 20-17 defeat to San Diego for its first ATS win of the season. Since starting 5-1 ATS last season, Todd Haley's team is just 5-9 ATS the previous 14 contests.
Panthers at Bears
July opener: Chicago -12
Sunday opener: Chicago -6½
The Bears shocked many people with a resounding opening week thumping of the Falcons, but Chicago has crashed back to Earth following a pair of double-digit setbacks to New Orleans and Green Bay. The Panthers invade Soldier Field after finally breaking through the win column in a 16-10 triumph over the Jaguars, cashing as 3 ½-point favorites.
The number released in July seemed fair since Cam Newton was going to struggle, assume he would start for the Panthers. However, the top pick from Auburn ranks third in the NFL in passing yards (1,012), while already eclipsing the 420-yard mark in two games. Now, the Bears' defense has to worry about Newton after ranking 26th in the league in pass defense through the first three weeks. Meanwhile, Chicago is second-to-last in the NFL in rushing following a 13-yard effort against the Packers.
Bills at Bengals
July opener: Cincinnati -4½
Sunday opener: Buffalo -3
The Bills became the first team to ever overcome consecutive 18+ point deficits and pick up victories, fresh off Sunday's shocker over New England. Buffalo goes for its fourth straight win against a Cincinnati team that fell short in an ugly 13-8 home loss to San Francisco. The Bengals haven't been a great home favorite under Marvin Lewis by compiling a 2-12 ATS record since 2008, but as a home 'dog is a different story.
Thankfully, the line has swung so great that the Bengals are getting points in this contest. Cincinnati owns a 9-3 ATS mark as a home 'dog since 2008, including outright wins over Baltimore and San Diego last season. Surprisingly, Buffalo is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite in its last four opportunities, including a 31-14 blowout of St. Louis is 2008, moving the Bills to 4-0 that season.
Giants at Cardinals
July opener: New York -6
Sunday opener: New York -1½
The Giants return to the site of their dramatic Super Bowl XLII triumph over the undefeated Patriots as New York battles Arizona on Sunday. Tom Coughlin's club knocked around the Eagles in a 29-16 bashing in Week 3, easily cashing as nine-point underdogs. The Cardinals return to Glendale after a disappointing 13-10 defeat at Seattle as three-point 'chalk,' dropping Arizona to 1-2.
Arizona rallied for a win in its only home contest against Carolina, 28-21, but the Cards have allowed the sixth-most yards (397/game) through three weeks. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards have put together a 9-3 ATS record as a home 'dog, even though one of those losses came to the Giants in 2008. New York is a very profitable 16-9 ATS since Coughlin took over when the Giants are listed as a road favorite, despite an opening week loss at Washington.
Colts at Buccaneers
July opener: Indianapolis -1½
Sunday opener: Tampa Bay -10
We'll be seeing the Colts on this list quite frequently throughout the season with Peyton Manning out. Indianapolis put up a valiant effort in a 23-20 home defeat to Pittsburgh, but the Colts managed a cover as double-digit home 'dogs. The Bucs have bounced back nicely following a Week 1 loss to Detroit with solid victories over Minnesota and Atlanta. Now, Raheem Morris' club is a double-digit favorite for the first time in his tenure as head coach of Tampa Bay, while trying to improve on a 4-12-1 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium.
Teams laying at least 10 points through the first two weeks of the season haven't been very successful against the number by covering just once in four tries. History is tough to judge with Indianapolis since Manning is out, but the Colts don't bounce back well following a loss by three points or less with a 1-7 ATS mark since 2006.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 4
By Colon Kelly
We’re through three weeks of the NFL season, and something is clearly not right. Perennial doormats Buffalo and Detroit remain undefeated – straight up, at least. Let’s see how things shape up in Week 4 with the NFL poolies' cheat sheet:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-4)
Why Steelers cover: They’re the defending AFC champs, and at some point, they should start playing like it, particularly after subpar performance against under-Manninged Colts last week. Pittsburgh has cashed last five after a non-cover and eight of last 11 getting points.
Why Texans cover: Matt Schaub’s prolific offense far better than what Steelers saw last week in 23-20 win at Indianapolis as overwhelming 10.5-point chalk.
Total (45.5): Over 23-6 in Houston’s last 29 vs. winning teams, and Pittsburgh on over runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 on road.
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (-1)
Why Redskins cover: Should be smarting after blowing chance for road win Monday night in Dallas. 5-1-1 ATS last seven overall.
Why Rams cover: Not much positive going at the betting window for Sam Bradford & Co., but St. Louis has covered last four in this rivalry, and underdog is 8-2 ATS in last 10 Redskins-Rams affairs.
Total (43.5): Washington has gone low in eight of past 10.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
Why 49ers cover: After beating Bengals 13-8 in scintillating game at Cincinnati, Niners smartly opt to stay in region this week, so it’ll be a short trip to Philly. Eagles 1-5 ATS last six overall, 0-4 ATS last four at home.
Why Eagles cover: Everybody’s sexy Super Bowl pick needs a performance that proves they’re worth hype, and Niners are right foe at right time. Philly 5-0 ATS last five in this rivalry.
Total (44.5): Under has hit in Eagles’ last four at home, but over is on upticks of 4-1 for Niners, 11-5 for Philly and 6-1 when these two teams get together.
Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs
Why Vikings cover: Not much to support the Men in Purple here, particularly after blowing 20-0 lead at home to Detroit. But K.C. has covered just one of last five overall and one of last five at home.
Why Chiefs cover: Same situation – not for what Kansas City has done, but for what Minnesota hasn’t. Vikes on ATS purges of 4-9-1 overall and 4-9 on highway.
Total (39.5): Under the play in Vikes’ last five roadies.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Why Bills cover: Buffalo can score, and Cincinnati cannot. Bills averaging league-best 37.7 ppg, while Bengals average 19 ppg (25th). Cincy mustered a whopping eight points in home loss to Niners last week. Bills pasted host Cincinnati last November, 49-31.
Why Bengals cover: Bills coming off hugely emotional comeback win over Patriots, so a big letdown would be no surprise. Cincy has cashed five of last six overall and four straight as a pup.
Total (43.5): Over for Bills has hit four in a row overall and four of five on road, and total has gone high last four Buffalo-Cincy meetings.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)
Why Titans cover: Road team 6-2 ATS last eight Tennessee-Cleveland contests. Browns on ATS dives of 1-5-1 overall and 0-5-1 at home.
Why Browns cover: Titans lost rising star wideout Kenny Britt (knee) for season last week, so QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to bunch of no-names, while Britt gets more time to devote to legal issues.
Total (38): No dynamic offenses here, to be sure. Under 15-7 Browns’ last 22 as home favorite.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Why Saints cover: Drew Brees and high-octane offense racking up 34.7 ppg, second-best in league. Jaguars are anti-Saints, with low-octane offense averaging paltry 9.7 ppg (31st). Jags 2-9 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.
Why Jaguars cover: Saints on ATS slides of 1-9 vs. losing teams and 1-5 on highway. Sean Payton’s defense also giving up 29.3 ppg (30th).
Total (46.5): As noted above, New Orleans lights up scoreboard and is on 5-1 over run on road. That said Jags’ pathetic offense has led to 4-1 under mark in last five overall.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Why Panthers cover: Rookie QB Cam Newton less of a head case than veteran Bears QB Jay Cutler. Underdog 3-0-1 ATS last four in this rivalry.
Why Bears cover: Facing team that mustered just eight points through 55 minutes vs. woeful Jacksonville last week.
Total (43.5): Chicago netted just 30 total points in losses to heavyweights New Orleans and Green Bay; finally gets to face a lightweight, so scoring should follow. Bears on over surges of 4-0 laying points and 22-10 as home chalk.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-1)
Why Lions cover: The no-longer-cowardly Lions have won seven in a row SU and gone 6-0-1 ATS, dating to last season. And the push came in their comeback win at Minnesota last week. Cowboys in 1-6 ATS rut as home chalk.
Why Cowboys cover: Detroit’s run bound to end soon, and this is the Lions’ second straight week on the road, while Dallas is home for second straight week.
Total (46): Monday night’s game notwithstanding – Dallas won by scoring SIX field goals – Cowboys Stadium is home to lots of points. Over 9-1 in last 10 at Jerry Jones’ football Taj Mahal.
New York Giants (-1) at Arizona Cardinals
Why Giants cover: Eli Manning appears to have found form, torching vaunted Eagles secondary for four TDs last week. That added to New York’s lore as an ATS road warrior: Giants 28-13 ATS last 41 on highway.
Why Cardinals cover: They get to come home, after criss-crossing country in losses at Washington and woeful Seattle. And Arizona 7-2 ATS last nine as home pup.
Total (44.5): Over 8-2 in Cards’ last 10 at home and 15-6-1 in Giants’ last 21 NFC contests.
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Why Falcons cover: Matt Schaub & Co., even at 1-2 SU, are playoff-caliber team. Seattle, at 1-2 SU, starts Tarvaris Jackson at QB. That about covers it. Falcons have cashed six straight vs. losing teams.
Why Seahawks cover: Not much good to say, but Seattle did win and cash vs. Arizona last week, moving to 4-1 ATS last five at home.
Total (40.5): Over 10-3-2 in Falcons’ last 15 overall and 11-3 in Seahawks’ last 14 overall.
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7)
Why Dolphins cover: Road is where the cash is – Fish 18-7-1 ATS last 26 roadies and 15-5-1 ATS last 21 as road ‘dog.
Why Chargers cover: At some point – and this looks like a good one – Philip Rivers-led offense should blow up. San Diego second-highest scoring team in league last year (27.6 ppg) but averaging just 21.7 this year. Winless Miami allowing 26 ppg this season and is 0-5-1 ATS last six.
Total (45): These two teams play to the under with regularity. Total has gone low in eight straight Dolphins-Chargers tilts and five in a row at San Diego.
New England Patriots (-4) at Oakland Raiders
Why Patriots cover: By doing what they do, which is score a ton of points – 34.7 per game on average this year, tied for second in league. Tom Brady threw four INTs at Buffalo last week. He might not throw four INTs rest of year. Pats have long been good road bet, at 45-22-3 ATS last 70 on the highway.
Why Raiders cover: They’ll feed ball to Darren McFadden, who torched Jets for 171 yards and two TDs last week. Brady’s offense can’t get going if it’s not on field. Oakland has cashed four in a row, all as underdog.
Total (54.5): If both offenses continue rolling, this could be scoring bonanza. Pats on over streaks of 19-7 overall, 6-1 in roadies and 15-3 within AFC. Over for Raiders on surges of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 5-0 with Oakland a home pup.
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)
Why Broncos cover: Hard to make compelling case here, but we’ll try. Green Bay 4-12-2 ATS in last 18 as home chalk of more than 10 points.
Why Packers cover: QB Aaron Rodgers will have his way with Broncos unit that’s on road for second straight week. Pack 6-1 ATS last seven overall and 6-1 ATS last seven at Lambeau. Denver one of worst ATS teams in league over past few years and currently on 4-10-1 pointspread dive.
Total (46): Over has been play in six of Pack’s last seven at home and is 9-1 in Broncos’ last 10 vs. winning teams.
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Why Jets cover: They got popped in mouth by Raiders, which might be nice wake-up call in time to face another stout opponent on road. Rex Ryan’s troops 13-6 ATS last 19 getting points.
Why Ravens cover: Because they own Jets, beating them six in a row SU and going 5-1 ATS in that span. Baltimore back home after two-game road swing.
Total (41.5): Both teams purport to be defensive-minded, but total has gone high in four straight for Ravens, and over for Jets on surges of 20-7 overall, 16-4-1 on road and 8-1 with New York catching points.
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
Why Colts cover: Tampa a double-digit favorite? Really? Bucs haven’t been in that role since 2008, and they’re 5-16 ATS in last 21 at home. Even without Peyton Manning, Indy showed some spark vs. Steelers, nearly knocking off defending AFC champs last week in 23-20 loss catching 10.5 points at home.
Why Buccaneers cover: Got the cash in four of last five overall and are 6-1-1 ATS last eight vs. losing teams.
Total (40.5): Indy has played to over in six of last seven on road and five of last six as a pup.
NFL Week 4
Lions (3-0) @ Cowboys (2-1) - Detroit off to 3-0 start for first time since '80- they were down 20-0 at half last week, rallied for first win in Metrodome since '96. Three Dallas games decided by total of 8 points, as Romo has willed team to comeback wins last two weeks- they're 28th in NFL in red zone offense, as new WRs not picking up offense. Cowboys covered once in last seven games as home favorite- they've won five of last six series games, including a 35-19 win here LY- they're 7-1 in last eight pre-bye games (6-2 vs spread). Counting 4-0 end to LY, Lions have now won last seven games that counted- they've lost three of last four visits to Dallas, with losses by 10-13-16 points.
Saints (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2) - Offensively-challenged Jags have one TD on 24 drives in last two games, with ten 3/outs and two safeties allowed; tough for rookie QB Gabbert to match points with New Orleans squad that has 11 TDs on 33 drives, with seven on 17 drives that started outside their 20. NO is 3-6 in last nine games as road favorite. Jaguars are 6-26 on 3rd down last two games, which is why they lost field position by 12-11 yards. Jax is 9-17 vs spread in game coming off their last 27 losses- they're 4-6 in last ten as a home underdog. Home side won all four series games, with Saints losing last visit here in '03, scoring bizarre TD on multi-lateral play, then missing tying PAT at gun.
49ers (2-1) @ Eagles (1-2) - Niners staying in Youngstown for week after 13-8 win at Cincinnati; they're 2-1 despite going 3/out 13 times on 33 drives, with no points on 16 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line- three of their five TDs came on drives of less than 50 yards. Kafka getting start for Philly, which has 2nd-worst red zone defense (6 TDs/FG on 7 drives)- they've allowed nine TDs in last two games, without forcing a FG try. Eagles are 15-10 vs spread in game after last 25 losses; 49ers are 0-5-1 in game following their last six wins. Philly turned ball over three times in each of last two games, negating excellent 20-38 rate on 3rd down conversions. Niners are 5-3-2 as single digit underdog.
Redskins (2-1) @ Rams (0-3) - No bright spots for Rams yet; they won't be getting great crowd support after dismal effort last week. Short work week plus travel for Redskin squad smarting after tough loss in Dallas Monday; Redskins have a lot of ex-Rams, Atogwe-Carricker-Fletcher and DC Haslett, who was interim coach before StL hired Spagnuolo. St Louis outscored 96-36 in pathetic 0-3 start; they're banged-up and facing Redskin team they beat 30-16 here LY for Bradford's first career win. Hightower should get ball a lot against St Louis defense thats given up 524 rushing yards in three games. Impossible to back Rams until they show some pass defense and a little heart. Washington lost its last five pre-bye games, allowing 29.4 ppg.
Titans (2-1) @ Browns (2-1) - Cleveland defense forced eight FG tries while allowing only two TDs in last two games, but Browns allowing average of 128.7 rushing yards per game; curious to see if Titans can get running game untracked- they’ve run ball for just 51.7 ypg in first three weeks. Browns outsacked opponents 11-3 so far; three of five TDs they’ve allowed came on drives of 46 or less yards. Tennessee outscored first three foes 37-16 in second half; none of its six TD drives are less than 75 yards. Tennessee is 24-16 in last 40 games decided by 7 or less points. Browns won three of last four pre-bye games- they’ve scored seven TDs while trying only four FGs, with four TDs, four FGs in eight red zone trips. Home side won all three Titan games. Cleveland won three of last four series games, after losing first five; Titans won three of four visits here.
Bills (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2) - Underdogs are 14-1-1 vs spread in Bengals’ last 17 home games (one pick ‘em). Huge trap game for Bills, coming off rare win over Patriots, with Vick’s Eagles coming to town next week- they’ve beaten Bengals 10 times in row since losing ’88 playoff game, winning last four visits here, all by 10+ points. Buffalo is 3-0 this year but hardly dominant, trailing 21-3/21-10 at half last two weeks, but they’ve scored 13 TDs on 35 drives, rank 2nd in NFL in red zone offense (11 TDs, 3 FGs on 14 drives) and outscored foes 80-24 in second half. Bengals are 2-21 on 3rd down last two games, getting pair of FGs on two red zone trips in loss to 49ers last week. Cincy lost nine of last 11 games decided by 7 or less points; Bengals covered nine of last 12 games as home underdog.
Vikings (0-3) @ Chiefs (0-3) - Minnesota led its three games 17-7/17-0/20-0 at half, then got outscored 67-6 in second half and loss all three games; Chiefs lost their first two games 41-7/48-3, then got outgained by 123 yards last week- they’ve got 10 turnovers, only three TDs, and have worst red zone defense in league (6.64 ppd), so not lot to choose from here. Expect Peterson to get heavier workload running ball after complaining publicly Monday about his five second half carries in loss to Lions. Chiefs are just 10-36 on 3rd down, part of reason they’ve started 20 drives 80+ yards from end zone. Minnesota is 13-21-2 vs spread in last 36 games where spread was 3 or less points, 9-15-1 in last 25 games vs AFC. Chiefs are 10-20 in last 30 games decided by 7 or less points, 6-12-1 in last 19 games where was spread was 3 or less.
Panthers (1-2) @ Bears (1-2) - Bears are favored for first time this year; over last 4+ years, they’re 7-11-1 as home faves. Newton got first NFL win last week on rainy home field, as Carolina held Jaguars scoreless in second half, after being outscored 44-17 in second half of first two games. Chicago is just 11-40 on 3rd down, has gone 3/out on 19 of 38 drives, big part of why they’ve lost field position battle in all three games, by 2-10-8 yards- they’ve started 17 drives 50-79 yards from goal line, and scored just one TD/two FGs, ranking 31st (0.76 ppd) in drives from that area. Newton showed moxie down stretch in close game last week, leading team to winning score in last 5:00. Teams split six series meetings, with Bears winning 23-6 in Charlotte LY. Carolina coach Rivera is former Bear LB, so this has to be special for him.
Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (3-0) - Houston held Indy/Miami to two TDs on 22 drives in winning first two games, then fell apart late at Superdome, as Saints scored 23 points in last 10:00 of 40-33 win. Half of Texans’ eight TDs are on drives of 42 or less yards- they had one TD/four FGs in loss last week, or else they would’ve hung 40+ on Saints- they miss injured possession WR Walter (out for year). Skeptical of Steelers after dull wins over Seattle/Indy last two weeks; they only have one takeaway (-9) in three games, and only ran ball for 67 yards in narrow win at Indy last week. So far this year, Pitt has 257 rushing yards, 884 thru air- they need better balance. Over last 7+ years, Pittsburgh is 14-6 vs spread as single digit underdog, covering seven of last ten as road dog. Houston is 16-10 in last 26 games as home favorite.
Falcons (1-2) @ Seahawks (1-2) - Over last 3+ years, Falcons are 14-1-1 vs spread in game following loss; this is third road game in four weeks for Atlanta squad that already has two road losses, scoring 12-13 points (one TD on 21 road drives), getting outscored 29-6 in first half of those games; Ryan has been sacked 13 times in three games- they’ve scored only one TD with four FGs in six red zone drives on road. Seattle has three TDs, 13 3/outs on 34 drives, with only one TD, one FG on 17 drives starting 80+ yards from paydirt. Seahawks have been outscored 43-6 in first half; they’re 13-43 on 3rd down, have been outsacked 14-5. Seahawks have only had four drives get inside opponents’ 20-yard line, 2nd-lowest total in NFL (Jaguars). Atlanta is 16-3-1 vs spread in last 20 games as single digit favorite.
Giants (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2) - Home side won all three Arizona games; Cardinals lost last two weeks by 1-3 points, converting just 6 of 23 on 3rd down. Giants are 26-16 vs spread in last 42 road games, 16-8 in last 24 as road favorite, 25-15 in game following their last 40 wins, 12-10 last 4+ years when spread was 3 or less points. Third road game in four weeks for Giant squad that looked sharp in decisive win at division rival Philly last week; they’ve got nine TDs, one FG try in three games, rank 4th in NFL in red zone offense (5.83). Redbirds rank 29th in red zone offense early this season (3.5). Arizona is 10-5 in last 15 games as home underdog, 4-7 in game following its last 11 losses, 13-10-2 in game following its last 25 wins- they’re 3-2 against the Giants since leaving NFC East.
Dolphins (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1) - San Diego lost seven of last eight games, winning 23-13 in last meeting in ’09; Chargers are playing third straight home game vs winless team, winning first two by 7-3 points- since 2003, they’re 32-21-1 as home favorite, but 0-2 this month. Rivers threw six INTs in first three games, Chargers already have -6 turnover ratio. Miami is -5 in turnovers, with only two takeaways in three games- they have two TDs on 23 drives in last two games, with two TDs, three FGs on seven red zone drives, which is terrible. Since ’05, Dolphins are 4-0 vs spread as a pre-bye underdog- they’ve got to be encouraged by 291 rushing yards in last two games, but losing in last minute in Cleveland had to sting. Chargers are 26-15 vs spread in last 41 games as single digit favorite. Dolphins are 19-13 in last 32 games as an underdog.
Broncos (1-2) @ Packers (3-0) - Denver's three games have been decided by a total of 8 points, with Broncos losing to Oakland/at Tennessee, both by a FG. Broncos are double digit dog for just third time (1-1) in last decade- they're 10-15 as road underdog since 2007, 15-26 against spread in game following last 41 losses. Green Bay's wins are by 8-7-10 points- since '02, they're 6-3 as double digit favorite. Pack is #5 team in red zone offense (5.46), #2 in red zone defense (3.54); they've scored seven TDs on 13 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line (4.00), by far best figure in league. Broncos are 1-4-1 in Wisconsin, 0-3 in Green Bay, losing 41-6/31-3 in last two visits here. Orton played here when he was a Bear. Last eight years, Broncos are 11-20-1 when facing an NFC team.
Patriots (2-1) @ Raiders (2-1) - Explosive Oakland (nine TDs/23 drives in last two games) looks to have best team since '02 AFC champs; they're averaging 185 rushing yards/game and would be 3-0 if they hadn't blown its 21-3 halftime lead in Buffalo two weeks ago. Since 2003, Belichick is 19-6 vs spread in game following a loss- Pats scored 38-35-31 points so far this year- they're second in NFL in drives that start 80+ yards from goal line (five TDs, FG on 15 drives). NE had 21-0 lead last week, before turning ball over four times in six drives, including killer INT in red zone that could've given them 28-7 lead just before half. Third road game in four weeks for New England, which is 27-14 in last 41 games as road favorite. Raiders are 7-5 in last dozen games as home underdog. Patriots won three of last four visits here, winning by 7-7-23 points.
Jets (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1) - Jet coach Ryan is former Raven assistant, so lot of similarities here; Gang Green lost six of last seven vs Baltimore, losing three in row here, by 14-10-7 points (average score, 22-12). Gang Green (+3) had seven takeaways in winning first two games, none last week in loss at Oakland, when Raiders ran for 234 yards. Loss of C Magold hurts Jet offensel they became pass-happy last week (339 passing yards, 100 on ground). Ravens are a bully team, with two wins 35-7/37-7. jets won't be bullied here, this figures to be a defensive struggle, will former Raven WR Mason give Rex some insight into Baltimore offense? Average total in last three series games, 22.7. Ravens failed to cover last four pre-bye games when favored- they won defensive struggle vs Jets in LY's eeting, winning 10-9. .
Colts (0-3) @ Buccaneers (2-1) - First visit here for Colts since wild 38-35 win in '03 Monday nighter, when Bucs led by 21 with 5:00 left. Manning-less Colts fought hard at home last week, but lost 23-20 at home to Steelers on national TV; Collins got concussion-- if he can't play, then incompetent #3 QB Painter gets nod, and this could get ugly. Bucs won last two games, by 4-3 points- they are 0-2 as double digit favorite the last 3+ years. Tampa Bay is 31st in NFL in red zone offense (three TD, five FG on 11 drives); they're 11-8-2 in their last 21 games as home favorites. Indy has only three TDs. 13 3/outs; they trailed 34-0 at half in only other road game, at Houston lost 34-7). Colts' ypa has gone down in every game, from 5.1/4.4/3.5. Harder for Freeney/Mathis to rush the passer on grass, which helps negate the Colts biggest strength.
NFL Week 4's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By Scott Cooley
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (PK, 39)
Titans pass defense vs. Browns pass offense
Tennessee’s top-ranked defense (261.0 ypg) has surprised many this year. The Titans haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game and they’re pretty salty against the pass, ranking second in the league with an average of 172.0 yards allowed a game.
Cleveland is barely averaging more than 200 yards passing per outing. Colt McCoy hasn’t topped 213 yards in any game this season and has a 54.1 completion percentage.
The Browns are averaging 5.7 yards per passing attempt. Pat Shurmur wants the ball out of McCoy’s hands as quickly as possible to avoid sacks. All this adds up to Peyton Hills and Benjamin Watson being the team’s leading receivers with 10 catches apiece.
The Titans have an emerging secondary that should shine Sunday. Third-year corner Jason McCourty is coming into his own and Cortland Finnegan looks like his old self after a down season in 2010.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 44)
Niners front seven vs. Eagles offensive line
The state of the Eagles offensive line has reached Code Red. Mike Vick said the only way he was coming out of a game was on a stretcher. Unfortunately, that might happen sooner than later.
San Francisco’s secondary is suspect but the team is tied for sixth in opponent completion percentage at 57.1. That speaks volumes about the pressure being generated up front.
The Niners’ eight takeaways and plus-6 turnover differential are tied for tops in the NFC. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are quickly becoming the NFL’s best interior linebacker tandem and they can blitz from anywhere on the field.
Philadelphia will want to run the ball more to protect Vick. The Eagles are second in the league in rushing but the 49ers run defense has allowed just 62.7 yards per game thus far.
And don’t worry about the 49ers traveling across the country in back-to-back weeks. They spent the week in Youngstown, Ohio, adjusting to the Eastern Time zone.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6, 43.5)
Panthers’ motivation vs. Bears’ motivation
Turmoil is brewing again early in Chicago. There is already a sense of desperation but the motivation edge in this matchup favors the visitor.
Ron Rivera coached for the Bears under Dave Wannstedt for two seasons and then Lovie Smith from 2004-2006. He was also drafted by the Bears and played on the 1985 Super Bowl team.
“I’m not going to downplay it. People say it’s just another game. No, it’s not,” Rivera said about the matchup. “They’re all big, but this has a little personal meaning for me because it’s Chicago.”
Rivera knows Smith’s tendencies and vice versa. But since Rivera has been gone for so long he should have the advantage.
Chicago general manager Jerry Angelo, who has come under heavy scrutiny recently, traded Greg Olsen to the Panthers before the season started.
“To say this game doesn’t light your fire a little more with everything that happened would be a lie,” Olsen said.
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 42)
Shonn Greene/LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Ravens rush defense
Rex Ryan isn’t even attempting to hide the fact that the Jets won’t be able to run on Baltimore Sunday night.
“Are you going to run it against Haloti Ngata over and over and against Ray Lewis? We’ll probably have to throw it more than we want,” he said.
After saying that Shonn Greene was going to get 300-plus carries this year, New York has somehow transformed into a pass-first team. The Jets have thrown the ball 62 percent of their snaps so far, which is more than any three-game stretch since Ryan took over.
Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson have combined for 196 yards on 58 attempts this year, equating to 3.4 yards per carry. It looks like there’s a good chance rookie Colin Baxter will start at center again for Nick Mangold.
“Anytime we make you one-dimensional, then we can pretty much get after your quarterback the way we dictated," Ray Lewis said. "We really pride ourselves on stopping the run.”
NFL Betting Weather Report: Week 4
October brings some chilly weather with it. Your NFL bets could get a taste of fall weather in the Week 4 of the schedule:
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1, 38.5)
The forecast in Cleveland is calling for a 73 percent chance of rain and winds reaching speeds of up to 20 mph, blowing north across Cleveland Browns Stadium. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 50s.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 43.5)
There’s a 32 percent chance of rain for Lincoln Financial Field Sunday. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 50s.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (+4.5, 38.5)
Rain is expected to hold off until late into the second half in Seattle Sunday. There’s a 14 percent chance of showers.
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 42.5)
Baltimore is expected to get showers Sunday night, with the forecast calling for a 24 percent chance of rain and winds blowing west at speeds of up to 10 mph. Temperatures will fall into the high 40s in the second half.
Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David
Week 3 Recap
Finally the NFL saw some low-scoring games, which was to the liking of the sportsbooks. Through the first two weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ posted a 21-8-3 (72%) mark. In Week 3, that number was tempered a bit with the ‘under’ going 10-6. Helping the cause were five games that saw less than 30 combined points posted. Despite the pendulum swinging the other way last week, we still had six teams bust the 30-point barrier. After three installments, the ‘over’ stands at 27-18-3 (60%).
Expert Opinion
Consider this a shameless plug or advice from the hottest NFL handicapper on VI, Brian Edwards (14-3-2, 82%). Included in that ridiculous record is a 6-1 (86%) mark in total plays. What’s the secret behind his success?
He explained, “I don’t approach totals any differently than sides. I make my numbers on Sunday and whether it’s a side or a total, I’m looking for game in which the number I make is different than the actual line by three points or more. For instance, I gave Seattle-Atlanta a total of 42, but the number as of Thursday afternoon was 38½ or 39. I think the number reflects an overreaction to a pair of grinder games played by both teams last week (Falcons lost 16-13 at Tampa Bay and Seattle beat Arizona, 13-10). Before the loss to the Bucs, Atlanta gave up 65 combined points in its first two games against Chicago and Philadelphia.”
Bettors should make a note that Seattle has watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 this season and it could easily be 3-0 if the 49ers’ Ted Ginn Jr. didn’t put on a show late in Week 1. And it could be tough backing the ‘Hawks, since they’ve scored a total of six points in the first half of their three games this season.
Edwards added, “I like the ‘over’ for Pittsburgh-Houston because my number (49) is four points different from the actual line (45). In this contest, gamblers know that Houston’s offense and Pittsburgh’s defense are both very good. We know the Steelers are good offensively, sometimes very good, but they have been plagued by turnovers so far this season. We saw the Texans’ defense look good against Indy and Miami, but do we throw those performances out the window since the Dolphins and Colts aren’t exactly clicking on all cylinders offensively? The Saints scored 40 points on Houston last week, but 23 of those New Orleans points came in the fourth quarter. I concluded that Houston is going to have its moments against Pittsburgh’s defense, and I think the Steelers are capable of producing big numbers against a Texans’ defense that still has plenty to prove.”
Even though Houston is averaging 30 points per game, you could make an argument that the team isn’t clicking on all cylinders. The Texans have scored 18 times this season, with nine touchdowns and nine field goals. Here’s the telling stat – seven of those kicks were between 20 and 29 yards. If this unit ever got its red zone going, look out.
Non-Divisional Battles – Round 2
Just like Week 2, all 16 games on tap will be non-divisional. What does that mean? You can definitely argue the unfamiliarity angle, right? And most would believe that favors the offense. The ‘over’ went 10-5-1 in the second week of the season and that was aided by some second-half explosions.
A disciplined gambler might tell you to pull back a little bit on this week’s card due to the uncertainty but who are we kidding. If you’re reading this, you’re betting on Sunday and hopefully winning too. With that being said, seven of the 16 games this week will feature rematches from last year. And get this -- five of those contests went ‘over’ the number.
Detroit at Dallas: Cowboys beat the Lions 35-19 last year, with a total of 47 1/2, but the score was only 10-7 at halftime. The number is down a point (46.5) this week due to the ‘Boys injuries on offense and the fact that Detroit’s defense isn’t too bad.
San Francisco at Philadelphia: This pair has met three straight seasons in a row and two of those went ‘over’ the number, including the Eagles’ 27-24 win last year from the Bay Area. The total is 44 and the Birds have averaged 33 PPG in their last four games against the 49ers since 2006.
Washington at St. Louis: The Rams ripped the Redskins 30-16 last season in a game that featured six field goals, something Washington and St. Louis are familiar with this year. The ‘over/under’ is sitting at 43, which says a lot considering St. Louis has scored 13, 16 and 7 points in three games.
Buffalo at Cincinnati: Buffalo blasted Cincinnati 49-31 on the road last season in a game the Bengals led 28-7 late in the second quarter. This year’s Bengals might have trouble putting up 31 in two games, yet alone one. However, Buffalo has been on a role, cashing the ‘over’ in all three of its games this season. The number is hovering around 43 points.
Carolina at Chicago: This one was ugly last year, with Chicago posting a 23-6 victory at home without starting quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bears have faced Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers so far. Something tells me that they’re happy to see Cam Newton, who proved that he is indeed a rookie in last week’s tight win over Jacksonville.
Atlanta at Seattle: Edwards talked about this game above and was confused by the line (38.5). Last year, the Falcons blasted the Seahawks 34-18, as the combined 54 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 46½. The Week 4 number is a little lower but still higher than the 2010 spread.
N.Y. Jets at Baltimore: See Below
Under the Lights
After three weeks of action and eight primetime games, the ‘over’ owns a 6-1-1 record. Last week, gamblers watched the first ‘under’ cash when the Cowboys and Redskins (18-16) fell ‘under’ the closing total of 45. Don’t be surprised to see the ‘under’ streak continue, especially with the upcoming matchups.
N.Y. Jets at Baltimore: The Ravens nipped the Jets 10-9 in Week 1 of the 2010 regular season, which never threatened the closing total of 36 points. This week’s total is hovering around 42 points. Baltimore has watched all three of its games go ‘over’ while the Jets own a 2-1 mark, thanks to an offense averaging 27.6 PPG. The Ravens gave up 26 points to the Titans in Week 2 but only a combined 14 points in their other two outings, both wins as well.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: The Colts and Buccaneers both have 2-1 records to the ‘over’ but those numbers could easily be 1-2, even 0-3 each way. Indianapolis posted 20 last week against Pittsburgh, seven coming from its defense. The Bucs’ defense showed some fight last week in their win over Atlanta (16-13). The total opened at 42 and has been dropping quickly. Curtis Painter will be the starting QB for Indy, which could be a good thing for the Colts, at least in terms of familiarity.
Fearless Predictions
So who thought it was a great idea to put up team total selections this season? After starting 0-2 (-220) in two weeks, maybe I should’ve reconsidered. Despite another TT loss, the Best Bets went 2-0 and we drilled another Three-Team Teaser, points not needed either. With all bets based on one-unit, the deficit stands at minus $40. Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: New York-Arizona 44.5
Best Under: Chicago-Carolina 42.5
Best Team Total: Under Buffalo 23.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Giants-Cardinals 35.5
Over Steelers-Texans 35.5
Under Cowboys-Lions 55.5