Week 5 NFC Betting News and Notes Part I
By Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 5 Part I. Part II will be posted tomorrow.
Arizona
It's five weeks into the season and we're not seeing many signs of progress here. Arizona couldn't run effectively in Week 1 against Carolina; they still can't run now. Kevin Kolb lacked any sort of chemistry with his receivers today, and never developed any comfort level in the pocket whatsoever. He’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns so far this season. Sure, he’s better than Max Hall or Richard Bartel, but this was supposed to be a significant upgrade. How hard can it be to chuck it up in Larry Fitzgerald’s direction and let him catch it? Given the weakness of this defense – a defense that really struggled after facing some early adversity here – the quarterback play here had better improve by leaps and bounds or the Cardinals are going to struggle to match last year's five win total. Ten straight road losses, including this completely non-competitive showing, can’t do much for Ken Whisenhunt's comfort level during their upcoming bye week. Arizona’s special teams play has been problematic all year. Poor punts and poor punt return coverage hurt them here; just two weeks after their field goal kicking cost them a game at Seattle.
Carolina
All five Panthers games this year have been decided by a touchdown or less. All four of their losses – the four games that were not played in driving rainstorms – have flown Over the total by an average of more than a touchdown per game. This looks to be another case of a head coach (Ron Rivera) coming from the defensive side of the football (former Chargers defensive coordinator) inheriting a team that doesn't play much defense. The Panthers are most assuredly an 'Over' team in 2011. Cam Newton is showing the ability to extend plays; making him even that much more effective. This is no surprise, but when the Saints’ devastating blitz isn't bringing down a rookie quarterback, it speaks volumes about that quarterback's strength and elusiveness. And with Newton running some option (option that actually worked at the NFL level today); it opened things up for DeAngelo Williams to scamper 69 yards for a touchdown.
Minnesota
The Vikings were 31st in the NFL in passing coming into the game, and it's easy to see why – Donovan McNabb has no chemistry with these receivers, and his offensive line is struggling to pass block. How did Brett Favre have so many weapons to throw too, taking this team within an overtime turnover of the Super Bowl, yet McNabb has so few downfield weapons? Devin Aromashodu was Minnesota’s top downfield threat today – this team is getting very little from Favre’s favorite playmakers Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe. The fact that Adrian Peterson remains the single best running back in the NFL only makes this lack of a consistent passing game even more baffling. And even with a big second half lead (once again) this team tried their best to lose it – is there any team in the NFL making fewer in-game adjustments than the Vikings these days? When Arizona cut the lead to 18 with a touchdown after halftime, this crowd got real quiet, real fast. You know it’s been a rough year when the crowd is noticeably nervous with an 18-point second half lead at home!
New Orleans
Drew Brees has thrown at least 20 completions in each of his last 24 games, a new NFL record and a testament to the wide variety of quality pass catchers the Saints have on their active roster every week. There just aren’t many ways to beat this team. The best option is trying to force them into mistakes – turnovers and red zone failures, while trying to make some big plays against this ultra-aggressive defense. Not an easy task! Saints’ roughing the passer penalties extended back-to-back touchdown drives for Carolina; two examples of when defensive aggression is a negative, not a positive. Last week, at Jacksonville, the Saints gained more than 500 yards of total offense, but they struggled repeatedly in the red zone. In the second half of that game, they had three red zone opportunities, and failed to punch in a touchdown on any of those chances. After two more red zone failures here, I can clearly say that yes, the Saints look good very good, but, no, this team is not perfect.
Week 5 NFC Betting News and Notes Part II
By Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 5 Part II. If you missed, Part I, click here.
New York Giants
This defensive line is just eating up Seattle's offensive line; a one-sided battle. They forced two key turnovers inside their own red zone largely because of their overwhelming pressure up front – keeping the team in the game when they could have been blown off the field. The Giants’ six sacks were just the tip of the iceberg – they were knocking down passes, blowing up runs in the backfield, forcing quick throws – everything you’d expect a dominant defensive front to do. But the secondary continues to be an extraordinarily weak link, both against the run and the pass. They are absolutely getting torched by Seattle's downfield passing game and their edge rushes. Where are the big plays from this running game? In recent years, the G-men have been among the league leaders in downfield gainers on the ground. This year, coming into this game, the Giants only had one 20+ yard run all season and Ahmad Bradshaw didn’t have a single carry longer than 13 yards today.
Philadelphia
Talk about a defense that isn’t making plays! 52 consecutive opponents drives in the red zone have resulted in points – no takeaways, none of the missed field goals that plagued the Eagles own offense last week. Missed tackles continue to be a huge problem – this defense is absolutely falling apart right now. They didn't even force a single third down on the Bills opening drive; an easy touchdown march. With an offensive line coach coordinating the defense, and two high priced man-to-man coverage cornerbacks playing zone, there's no reason to think things are going to change any time soon. Now Vick is letting the pressure eat him up, making poor decisions with the football on both first quarter interceptions. Three early drives into Bills territory, three turnovers (one overturned on replay) – this is not a confidence inducing performance from a team primed to turn their season around with a resounding victory. And these offensive red zone issues – a complete inability to run the football between the tackles – are another consistent problem area that Philly hasn't been able to fix. The offensive line is getting destroyed – Vick is taking an absolute beating right now. Bad special teams – another short punt, missed FGs last week. There are so many little ‘attention to detail’ things wrong here.
San Francisco
This defense is really stepping up, emerging as an elite level unit. Cornerback Carlos Rogers now has an interception in three consecutive games, including a defensive touchdown here. Linebacker Patrick Willis was all over the field; notching ten solo tackles. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio crafted impressive defenses out of mediocre talent at Stanford, in large part because film study left his team more prepared than their opponents. We're seeing similar elements here. San Fran spent the entire day jumping Bucs routes, a clear example of where film study and good coaching gave them a real, legitimate edge. The 49ers knew the Bucs passing routes better than Tampa's own receivers did! The 49ers have become a positive turnover differential team (their +10 for the season ranks #1 in the NFL); and I don’t see it ‘reverting back to the mean’ in the short term future unless Alex Smith has a major regression.