NFL Wild Card betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, January 7th, 2017 and Sunday, January 8th, 2017
NFC Wild Card Notes
VegasInsider.com
Detroit at Seattle
Opening Line (1/2/17): Seattle -7 (-120), 44
Current Line (1/3/17): Seattle -8, 42½
Detroit Road Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS
Seattle Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Head-to-Head: Seattle nipped Detroit 13-10 in 2015 and never came close to covering as a 9½-point home favorite. The Seahawks were fortunate to win as the Lions fumbled on the Seattle one-yard line with less than two minutes left in the game. The teams met in the 2012 season from Ford Field and Detroit rallied for a 28-24 victory at home as Matthew Stafford (352 yards, 3 TDs) outdueled Russell Wilson (236 yards, 2 TDs).
Playoff Notes: Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game since 1992 and is 0-2 in two appearances with Stafford under center. Both of those setbacks came on the road despite the Lions scoring 20 and 28 points. The Seahawks are 7-3 in the playoffs under Wilson but only 4-5-1 versus the point-spread. The team has gone 4-0 with him at CenturyLink Field but only managed to cover one of those games. The ‘over’ has gone 6-4 during this span and the ‘Hawks have scored 23 or more points in their four home games.
Total Notes: Detroit was 10-6 to the ‘under’ this season, 5-3 both at home and on the road. The Lions started the season with a 4-2 ‘over’ run before eight straight ‘under’ tickets. The defense was on fire during that span (16.5 PPG) but surrendered 42 and 31 the last two weeks and those efforts resulted in ‘over’ winners. Seattle’s defense was also suspect down the stretch, allowing 34 and 23 in Week 16 and 17 and that produced a pair of ‘over’ tickets as well. Seattle was 9-7 to the ‘over’ which includes a 5-3 mark at home. The Seahawks offense averaged nearly two touchdowns more at CenturyLink Field (28.4 PPG) than they did on the road (15.9 PPG) this season.
N.Y. Giants at Green Bay
Opening Line (1/2/17): Green Bay -4½, 44
Current Line (1/3/17): Green Bay -4½, 44
New York Road Record: 4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS
Green Bay Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
Head-to-Head: The Packers defeated the Giants 23-16 as seven-point home favorites against the Giants in Week 5 in a Sunday Night Football matchup. Prior to that setback, New York had won and covered the previous three meetings against Green Bay and it scored 27, 38 and 37 points in those games. The ‘under’ is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the pair.
Playoff Notes: New York owns an all-time 8-3 playoff record with QB Eli Manning and seven of those victories have come on the road or neutral field and two of them were against the Packers (37-20, 23-20). The lone road loss during this span came by three points. Green Bay has gone 8-6 in the playoffs with QB Aaron Rodgers but it’s only 3-3 at Lambeau Field. The Packers have never been held under 20 points during this span.
Total Notes: The Packers closed the season with four consecutive 'over' tickets and the 'over' went 6-2 at Lambeau Field this season. Meanwhile the Giants were the best 'under' bet in the NFL this season with a 12-4 mark. New York was 7-1 to the 'under' on the road.
AFC Wild Card Notes
VegasInsider.com
Oakland at Houston
Opening Line (1/2/17): Houston -2, 37
Current Line (1/3/17): Houston -3½, 36½
Oakland Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Houston Home Record: 7-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Head-to-Head: These teams met in Week 11 from Mexico City and the Raiders rallied for a 27-20 victory over the Texans as 6½-point favorites. Houston controlled the clock and outgained Oakland but the defense surrendered two big touchdowns (75, 35) in the fourth quarter. Including that result, the Raiders have won and covered three of the last five meetings while the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 during this span.
Playoff Notes: Houston owns an all-time 2-3 record in the playoffs and the two wins came at home. Last season, the Texans were blanked 30-0 in the first round of the playoffs. Oakland hasn’t made a trip to the postseason since 2003 when they finished with a 48-21 loss to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII. Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio owns a 1-2 career mark in the playoffs and his team (Jaguars) allowed 31, 29 and 28 points in those losses.
Total Notes: Oakland watched the ‘under’ close the season on a 3-1 run after the ‘over’ started with an eye opening 10-2 mark. Surprisingly, the Raiders scoring defense has been better on the road (21.3 PPG) than at home (27.6 PPG) this season. Oakland has watched total produce a stalemate (4-4) outside of the Bay Area. The Texans closed the season with a 4-1-1 ‘under’ run and the lone ‘over’ came in Week 17 with a couple meaningless cores. Houston leaned to the ‘under’ (9-6-1) this season and that included a 6-2 mark at home, which was helped with a great scoring defense (16.6 PPG).
Miami at Pittsburgh
Opening Line (1/2/17): Pittsburgh -9½, 47
Current Line (1/3/17): Pittsburgh -10 (Even), 47
Miami Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Pittsburgh Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Head-to-Head: Miami ran past a short-handed Pittsburgh squad 30-15 in wire-to-wire fashion in Week 6 as a 7½-point home favorite. Including that win, the Dolphins have won two straight against Pittsburgh and covered three in a row. Despite two straight losses to Miami, the Steelers have gone 4-2 against the Dolphins with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger under center.
Playoff Notes: Miami hasn’t been to the playoffs since the 2008 season and they’re 1-4 in their last five postseason games, which includes a 0-2 mark on the road. The club was outscored 89- 7 in those games. Pittsburgh has gone 11-6 in the playoffs since Big Ben took over at QB but the team is just 2-3 in the Wild Card round. The Steelers haven’t won a home playoff game since 2011 and is just 1-4 SU and 0-3-2 ATS in their last five postseason matchups.
Total Notes: Miami watched the 'over' go 12-4 this season and that includes a 5-3 mark on the road. The Dolphins finished the season with six straight 'over' tickets and the defense allowed 27.3 PPG. Pittsburgh was 10-6 to the 'under' but a better effort for the 'over' (4-4) took place at Heinz Field. The Steelers averaged 26.7 PPG in the second-half of the season and closed with a 3-1 record to the 'over.'
Wild Card Round
Raiders (12-4) @ Texans (9-7) — Two teams with QB issues; rookie 3rd-stringer Cook is making his first NFL start this week- he was 14-21/150 in relief in Denver LW, his NFL debut. Raiders won 8 of last 10 games but loss of QB Carr and loss to Broncos LW cost them first-round bye and any real chance of getting to Super Bowl. Oakland (-6.5) beat Houston 27-20 in a Monday night game in Mexico City Nov 21 (week after Raiders’ bye). Oakland is 6-2 on road, 3-2 as road underdog but that was with Carr playing. Osweiler starts at QB for Texans, after he was benched for #2 QB Savage, who then got a concussion. Houston won three of last four games, is 7-1 at home, 3-2-1 as home favorite. Oakland is in playoffs for first time since losing Super Bowl 14 years ago. Texans are in playoffs for 4th time in last six years. Home side won #4-5 seed AFC game four of last five years.
Lions (9-7) @ Seahawks (10-5-1) — Detroit lost its last two games to miss out on winning NFC North for first time since 1993; they’ve won one playoff game since 1957, are in playoffs for 3rd time in last 17 years. Stafford has an injured finger on throwing hand; Detroit scored 17 pts/game in losing last three games, were -7 in turnovers in last four. Lions have trailed in 4th quarter in every game but one this season; they’re 3-5 on road, 3-4 as road dogs. Seahawks split last six games, are 4-3-1 as home favorites this year- they played only four playoff teams this year, going 3-1. Detroit lost weird 13-10 night game in Seattle LY, when Seahawks scored controversial late TD. Lions are 5-8 overall vs Seattle, 1-6 here, with only win back in 1999. Under is 8-2 in Detroit’s last ten games, 1-4 in Seattle’s last five. Road team is 4-4 in NFC #3-6 game last eight years; underdogs covered four of last six years.
Dolphins (10-6) @ Steelers (11-5) — Dolphins were 1-4 when Steelers went to South Beach and lost 30-15; TY was 474-297, Pitt had only 15 first downs. Fish are 4-4 on road, 3-3 as road underdogs, but 4 of last 5 teams they visited either fired their coach or half their assistants. Miami is in playoffs for first time since ’08; their last playoff win was in 2000. Dolphins have rookie coach, backup QB starting; they’re 9-2 in last 11 games, losing mostly meaningless game to Patriots LW. Pittsburgh is in playoffs for 3rd year in row and 11th time in last 16 years; they won last seven games overall but covered only one of last five at home. Three of last four Steeler games went over total; last six Miami games (and 9 of last 10) went over. Miami is 2-1 all-time vs Steelers in playoff games, but last one of those was in ’84. Road team won AFC #3-6 game last three years and six of last eight; underdogs covered five of last seven.
Giants (11-5) @ Packers (10-6) — Giants won playoff games in Lambeau in both 2007/2011, so have to be confident here. New Jersey (+7) lost 23-16 at Lambeau back in Week 4, running ball 15 times for 43 yards in game where Packers outgained them by 189 yards. Green Bay allowed 153 points in a 4-game midseason skid, then recovered, won its last six games; they’re 6-2 at home, 4-2-1 as home favorites. New Jersey went 9-2 after the Lambeau loss; they’re 4-4 on road, 1-3-1 as a road underdog, with only cover LW in meaningless win over Redskins. Giants held five of last seven opponents under 17 points; they’re 2-5 this season when allowing 23+ points, 9-0 when allowing less than 23. Last four Green Bay games went over total; under is 7-1 in Giants’ last eight games. Road team won NFC #4-5 seed game three of last four years, but favorites covered four of last five.
Armadillosports.com
Saturday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Houston (-4); Total set at 36.5
The NFL playoffs have finally arrived and they begin with an AFC Wildcard game that doesn't exactly peak a high level of interest from general NFL fans.
The Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans have serious QB concerns entering this contest as the Raiders are going with 3rd string rookie QB Connor Cook (making his 1st start) and are hoping he can get them to the next round. It's a lot to ask of a rookie QB to make his first start in the playoffs, but Cook played in plenty of big time games while at Michigan State and the Raiders are confident he'll be alright.
Houston is turning to QB Brock Osweiler again after he was largely ineffective for the bulk of the season and getting benched because of his poor play. The Texans generally know what they've got in Osweiler but aren't thrilled about the prospect of having him line up under center.
With the winner of this game likely taking their QB concerns up to New England to face Tom Brady and company in the next round, will it be Oakland or Houston that makes that trip?
Given the issues both teams have at the most important position, it's not surprising to see bettors already pushing up the line on Houston to -4 after it opened at -3.5. Osweiler might not be good, but he's a known commodity compared to Cook and bettors prefer to go with what they know. Houston's defense is also tops in the league in yards allowed per game, so there is always that to rely on if the Texans are the team you are leaning on.
But sometimes unknown commodities like Cook can turn out to be much better then expected and he won't be shy to let it all hang out. Oakland will likely rely on their running game a bit more early on to get Cook comfortable, but if the Raiders are going to pull off the upset, it will likely have to be on the back of Cook's arm.
Yet, it may be the better option from a betting perspective to bypass the side entirely for this game given the QB concerns as those same concerns could work out in favor of one particular total play.
While playing the 'over' may not be the first thing that comes to mind when a game as QB issues on both sides like this one, it doesn't mean that it's not a solid play. Both QB's will likely throw at least one INT and turnovers often create short fields and points can follow in a hurry. Trying to handicap turnovers in the NFL is nearly impossible, but with a rookie QB making his first career start and Osweiler and his 16 INT's on the year, it does make that task a little easier here.
The Raiders defense is already familiar with Osweiler having faced (and beaten) him in Mexico earlier this year and they were able to force two turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble) that night. Oakland will look to stop a running attack led by Lamar Miller that did most of Houston's damage against him that day and force Osweiler to beat them, and typically that's been a blueprint for success when facing Houston this season.
On the other side, Houston may not know much about Cook, but there is sure to be some rookie jitters for him out there and their defense will look to force the issue as well. The Texans actually dominated Oakland's ground attack in that first meeting, holding them to just 30 yards on the ground, so Cook will have to take to the air to make some big plays. That will either lead to big completions or INT's and either way it's generally good for points to be scored.
Finally, with this total still below the key number of 37 there is plenty of value in backing a relatively high-scoring game. VegasInsider.combetting percentage numbers show about 60% in favor of the 'under' so far as expected, but the likelihood of multiple turnovers, and the notion that these two QB's could even surprise everyone by lighting it up favors points to be scored.
Yes, the Texans defense is the best in the league, but Oakland showed in Week 1 when they went for a 2-pt conversion to win rather then tie in New Orleans that HC Jack Del Rio that he isn't afraid to take risks.
Del Rio has to understand that a conservative approach with a 3rd string QB making his first career NFL start on the road in the playoffs is far from the best way to win this game and I expect we see at least 40 points here.
Best Bet: Over 36.5
Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Seattle (-7.5); Total set at 43
The Detroit Lions are hoping their three-game slide to end the regular season doesn't carry over into the playoffs as they make the journey to Seattle for their Wildcard game on Saturday.
The Lions were one of the best 4th quarter teams all year, winning nearly all of their games by coming back from late deficits, but playing with fire for that long burned them down the stretch when they dropped three straight.
They now go into Seattle as touchdown underdogs in a game that many bettors believe will be closer then this line suggests.
VegasInsider's betting percentage numbers right now show that about 60% of the bettors are grabbing the points on this game and over 75% are grabbing a piece of the moneyline with the Lions as well. That is a bit surprising on the surface given Detroit's troubles down the stretch, but many have been down on the Seahawks all year and these early betting numbers are following that trend.
Seattle has had offensive line issues all year long and their lack of a ground game (25th overall with just 99.4 yards/game) is a huge difference from their championship runs of years past. QB Russell Wilson has been scrambling for his life at times in those poorly protected pockets, and one dimensional teams typically don't last too long in the postseason.
But the core of Seattle's team has been here many times in recent years, their defense is still in the upper echelon (although not having S Earl Thomas hurts) and their homefield advantage is still one of the best in the league. The Lions don't exactly have a great running game either (30th overall with just 81.9 yards/game), so those bettors grabbing the points with the underdog here might be in for some trouble.
Seattle didn't exactly play well down the stretch either as they were blown out in Green Bay, dominated a very bad Rams team, lost at home to Arizona in a game that should have never been that close, and narrowly escaped San Francisco with a SU win.
That recent form is another reason why bettors are preferring the points with Detroit here, but in Seattle's defense, they had wrapped up the NFC West prior to all that, and while a top-two seed was still up for grabs, the Seahawks knew they already had one playoff home game locked up and would take their chances from there. We shouldn't expect to see this Seahawks team show the same lackadaisical effort now that it's win or go home, and those flaws mentioned earlier won't hurt them too much against this Lions team.
Seattle hasn't been kind to bettors in playoff games of late either with an 0-4 ATS run in their last four, but those all came during their dominant years recently and we've all seen that that Seahawks era is likely on it's way out. However, while the Seahawks may not be as great a team as in year's past, this is still a very good team that can dominate opponents on their own field and I expect that to be the case here.
They are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and are on a 5-1 ATS run after failing to cover the spread last time out. The strength of their defense still lies with their pass rush and secondary, and putting that up against a pass-heavy team like the Lions should bode well for Seattle.
With just 225.8 yards allowed/game through the air, QB Matt Stafford and the Lions offense are going to have a tough time moving the ball with their preferred method and that will likely be too much to overcome.
On the flip side, Detroit's defense is just average against the run (18th) and pass (19th), so if Seattle can get some decent protection from their O-line, moving the ball and putting up points on the Lions shouldn't be a big concern. Seattle loves to play from ahead and let their defense lock things down and that's precisely how this game should play out.
Finally, we can't ignore the fact that for all the close games Detroit as played, when they lose outright they lose ATS as well. Detroit was 0-7 ATS in their seven losses this year, and although only two of them came by more then 7 points, those two happened to be during their final three-game losing stretch.
There were also three other contests where the Lions lost by 7 points exactly, so grabbing those points and relying on the 'hook' to get you the cover isn't exactly a good spot to be in as a bettor.
Detroit is also on a 3-8 ATS run away from home against a team with a winning record at home, as these numbers suggest if Seattle wins they'll cover the number as well.
Despite the lingering concerns Seattle has compared to their past teams, I've got no problem going against the majority here and laying the chalk with a Seahawks team that will be looking to make a statement to the rest of the NFC.
Best Bet: Seattle -7.5
Sunday's Playoff Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Pittsburgh (-10); Total set at 46
It was announced today that the Miami Dolphins have officially ruled QB Ryan Tannehill out for Sunday's game to the Dolphins will be going back to war with journeyman Matt Moore under center.
Moore performed amicably in reserve duty down the stretch for the Dolphins as they were able to win three of their final four games to clinch a playoff spot, and wasn't bad in the season finale against New England (24-for-34 for 205 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT) in a game of little consequence for Miami.
But the Dolphins will need him to likely put up 30+ points again as he did vs the Jets and Bills if they want to leave Pittsburgh with a win as the Steelers possess one of the most explosive offenses in the league.
The Steelers finished the year on a seven-game win streak, winning the AFC North in the process. They were dominant on offense during that time as they scored 24 or more points in all seven of those victories. There defense seemed to find their form as well as they climbed up the stats down the stretch.
It isn't the same dominant Steelers defense they've had in year's past, but they are more then capable of getting stops when needed. The 2016 Steelers are also built to win with their offense as QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell, and WR Antonio Brown – affectionately known as the “Three B's” - are some of the best at their respective positions in this league. Those three were largely held in check in their previous meeting with Miami down in South Beach, but with everything on the line here and the game in Pittsburgh, a much different story should be written.
Although #3 vs. #6 seeds tend to have bigger point spreads, putting a double digit number on a Wildcard game is a little out of the norm. But the -10 spread Pittsburgh is looking to cover speaks to how explosive their offense is, how good the team was as a whole the final two months, and Miami coming into town with a backup QB.
Yet, current numbers at VegasInsider show about 60% of bettors willing to grab the points with this large spread as they believe it's just too big of a number for this Steelers team to cover against a foe that is already 1-0 SU against them this season.
That 30-15 win by Miami over Pittsburgh came in a similar scenario to this one in that Pittsburgh was coming off two blowout wins (winning by a combined core of 74-27) and had opened the year 4-1 SU. The trip to Miami (with New England on deck) was set up to be a prime letdown spot for the Steelers and they did not let those who believe in that scenario down.
Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards against this Steelers defense and Dolphins bettors (+7.5) never had to sweat. As impressive as that performance was for Miami, there is no denying that both sides are much different teams now and even the change of venue should have an affect. So if you are one of those who is basing your play on Miami plus the points on the fact that they did beat Pittsburgh already, I'd implore you to look a little deeper.
That Miami loss was the only time the Steelers failed to cover a spread as favorites of at least a TD (3-0 ATS) and that 15-point loss in the first meeting when Pittsburgh was -7.5, seemingly has little effect on the spread this time around. Add in the typical 3 points for home field and it's essentially the same line as before on the Steelers. Throw in the top tier form Pittsburgh is in right now, Miami's QB situation, and the revenge angle favoring the home side, and this game should very well be the blowout that oddsmakers are expecting.
Pittsburgh is on a 6-1 ATS run in playoff home games and have a 4-1-1 ATS run going against AFC foes. They've got a core that knows how to perform at peak levels during this time of year and will not want to give the Dolphins any hope of remaining competitive right from the outset.
Miami is not a regular organization in the playoffs lately, but their 0-4 ATS record in their last four postseason contests, and 1-4 ATS mark in the last five playoff road games doesn't do them any favors. They are also 3-10 ATS after scoring less than 15 points last time out and have a 3-7 ATS run going against winning teams. The fact that it's the Dolphins who are getting more tickets written at this point and the spread hasn't come off the key number of -10 suggests that oddsmakers are fine with their position and will have no quarrels about seeing a Steelers blowout.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh -10
NFL Wild Card Betting Preview: Raiders at Texans
By Covers.com
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (3.5, 36.5)
The highest-profile position on the field also will be the one surrounded by the most question marks when the Houston Texans host the Oakland Raiders on Saturday afternoon in the opening game of Wild Card Weekend. Oakland is down to its third-string quarterback in rookie Connor Cook while Houston turns back to Brock Osweiler, who was benched three weeks ago.
The rematch from Week 11, when Oakland rallied for a 27-20 win in Mexico behind two fourth-quarter touchdown passes by Derek Carr, will have a decidedly different look after Carr broke his leg in Week 15 and backup Matt McGloin injured his left shoulder in the regular-season finale. That leaves Cook in line to become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have his first career start occur in the postseason, a welcome development for the AFC South champions' top-ranked defense. “That’s great, I hope we blitz him all game," Houston defensive end Jadeveon Clowney told reporters. Osweiler started the first 15 games for the Texans before losing his job to Tom Savage, who suffered a concussion last week to give Osweiler a second chance.
POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (0) - Texans (0.5) + home field (-3) = Texans -2.5
LINE HISTORY: The Texans opened as field goal favorites and that number was bet as high as 4, before fading to 3.5 late in the week. The total opened at 37, has bounced back and forth between 37 and 36.5 all week, currently settling at 36.5. Check out the complete history here.
WHAT BOOKS SAY - "Bettors began taking the Texans when news broke that Cook was starting for Oakland. We moved to -3.5 and then -4, but took some sharp action on that number so quickly adjusted back to -3.5. The total has dropped a full point down to 36.5 and we’ve got almost 75 percent of the handle on the under." - Scott Cooley from BookMaker.eu.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This is the first time in NFL Playoff history during the Super Bowl era (past 51 years) that a quarterback will be starting a playoff game after not starting a single regular season game during his career. Oakland's third-string rookie QB Connor Cook played the majority of the game last week at Denver, after Matt McGloin was injured. Cook was decent, completing 67% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass with a 83.4 QB rating. Cook has only taken the majority of the snaps in one other game this season and that was during the Preseason in Week 4 against Seattle's backups. Cook was terrible in that game, averaging just 4.8 yards per pass with a 50.0 QB rating." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Raiders - DT Stacy McGee (probable, ankle), WR Amari Cooper (probable, shoulder), WR Michael Crabtree (probable, ankle), S Karl Joseph (probable, toe), QB Matt McGloin (questionable, shoulder), OL Kelechi Osemele (questionable, knee), OT Donald Penn (questionable, knee), WR Andre Holmes (questionable, shoulder), LB Malcolm Smith (questionable, hamstring), OT Austin Howard (questionable, shoulder), S Nate Allen (doubtful, concussion), LB Aldon Smith (out for season, suspension), QB Derek Carr (out for season, leg), LB Shilique Calhoun (IR, knee)
Texans - DE Jadeveon Clowney (probable, elbow), RB Lamar Miller (probable, ankle), CB Jonathan Joseph (probable, shoulder), LB Brian Cushing (probable, ankle), G Jeff Allen (questionable, ankle), CB A.J. Bouye (questionable, groin), S Quintin Demps (questionable, hamstring), TE Ryan Griffin (questionable, quadricep), FB Jay Prosch (questionable, ankle), LB John Simon (questionable, chest), OT Chris Clark (questionable, leg), QB Tom Savage (out, concussion)
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 11-5 O/U): Oakland, making its first postseason appearance since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002, is hoping to rally around Cook, a fourth-round draft pick out of Michigan State who finished 14-of-21 for 150 yards with a touchdown and an interception in last week's loss at Denver. "Obviously, playing at Michigan State, we played in some big-time games there," said Cook, who was inactive for the first 15 games. "So, I'm going to try and take whatever I did there, use it, put it to use out there Saturday." The Raiders have the league's No. 6 rushing attack at 120.1 yards per game and likely will try to ease the pressure on Cook by featuring a heavy dose of Latavius Murray and rookie DeAndre Washington. Defensive end Khalil Mack has recorded 11 sacks for a unit that ranked last in the league with 25.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Coach Bill O'Brien finally ran out of patience with Osweiler, a high-priced free-agent signee in the offseason, after he tossed a pair of interceptions against lowly Jacksonville on Dec. 18. The injury to Savage - currently in the NFL concussion protocol - also gives Osweiler an opportunity to erase the memory of a year ago, when he was benched in Denver's regular-season finale in favor of Peyton Manning, who promptly led the Broncos to the Super Bowl title. "When you do become the backup, you're able to observe a lot more," O'Brien told reporters. "You're able to observe in practice. In the games, in the meetings, and I think it helped him." The Texans received a boost when running back Lamar Miller, who rushed for 1,069 yards this season, practiced fully on Wednesday after missing two games with an ankle injury.
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in Texans last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: Users are split 50/50 on this battle of inexperienced quarterbacks. As for the total, 53 percent of wagers are on the under.
NFL Wild Card Betting Preview: Lions at Seahawks
By Covers.com
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 43)
The Seattle Seahawks are making their fifth consecutive playoff appearance on the heels of trading wins and losses over their last six games, while the Detroit Lions' bid to capture the NFC North title was dashed by three straight defeats to end the season. Both teams will look to get it in gear on Saturday night, when they meet in a wild-card tilt at CenturyLink Field in Seattle.
"Everything that's already happened doesn't matter at all,” said Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who might be comforted by the fact that he - along with quarterback Russell Wilson - has yet to suffer a playoff loss in the Pacific Northwest while Detroit hasn't won a postseason game since 1991. Wilson (career-high 4,219 passing yards) threw a touchdown pass in a 25-23 victory over San Francisco on Sunday and found Doug Baldwin for a scoring strike in the last encounter with the Lions, resulting in Seattle's 13-10 triumph on Oct. 5, 2015. While Wilson reportedly is contemplating removing his knee brace for the playoffs, Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford said he hasn't been affected by wearing a glove on his throwing hand to protect an injured finger, although he has registered two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last three games after recording 22 TDs and seven picks prior to the injury. Stafford threw for 347 yards and two scores in a 31-24 setback against Green Bay on Sunday and has averaged 351.5 yards in two career playoff appearances.
POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0) - Seahawks (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -5.5
LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened this game as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has grown to 8. The total opened at 43 and briefly dropped to 42.5 before returning to the original number late in the week. Check out the complete history here.
WEATHER REPORT: It is shaping up for an awful afternoon for football in Seattle. The forecast is calling for considerable cloud at kickoff and a little accumulation of snow and rain later in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the high 30’s with winds between six-nine miles per hour coming from the east.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The sharp bettors haven’t really taken much of a stand for this one as of yet. A few quickly grabbed on the -7 open most likely as a position play and hoping it balloons out of control. We have more than 65 percent of the action on Seattle as of now but we do expect to see some smart guys on the dog at some point." - Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Seattle continues to possess a very strong home field, going 7-1 SU this season. This is a difficult scheduling situation for the Lions as they are traveling on a short week after playing the Sunday night game versus Green Bay. Detroit enters the playoffs on a 0-3 SU/ATS slide, while Seattle has alternated wins/losses in their past six games, going 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) down the stretch of the regular season. The Seahawks have only won three of their past 12 games this season by more than seven points." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Lions - WR Andre Roberts (questionable, shoulder), LB DeAndre Levy (questionable, knee), C Travis Swanson (questionable, concussion), DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, undisclosed), WR Marvin Jones Jr. (questionable, concussion), OT Riley Reiff (questionable, hip), CB Asa Jackson (IR ankle), OT Corey Robinson (IR, foot), RB Ameer Abdullah (IR, foot), RB Theo Riddick (IR, wrist), DT Stefan Charles (IR, knee)
Seahawks - DT Tony McDaniel (questionable, concussion), RB C.J. Promise (out, shoulder), LS Nolan Frese (IR, ankle), WR Tyler Lockett (IR, leg)
ABOUT THE LIONS (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10, O/U): Former Seattle wideout Golden Tate overcame a horrendous start to the season to lead the team with 1,077 receiving yards, with 404 and two touchdowns coming on 33 receptions in his last four road games. Tate has made himself at home in his third season with Detroit after signing a five-year, $31 million contract on the heels of helping the Seahawks win Super Bowl XLVIII. "I thought they wanted me back. I thought I did everything I could to help them win a Super Bowl, was in the community, was a good guy," Tate told reporters. "But you know, it worked out. I'm happy where I am and excited about the future of this organization, and hopefully I'm here for a long, long time." Zach Zenner has given Detroit's 30th-ranked rushing game a jolt with 136 yards and three touchdowns in his last two contests.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Seattle's ground game has struggled to get untracked since the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, with Thomas Rawls plagued by multiple injuries while Christine Michael (now with Green Bay) and C.J. Prosise (shoulder) also saw their paths to stardom slowed. "We just keep going," Carroll said on 710 ESPN Seattle. "We keep running. We have to keep running to make sure that we have the mix that we want." Wideouts Jermaine Kearse (six touchdowns in seven career playoff games) and Baldwin (four TDs in last six postseason contests) have come up large in the passing game. Former Lion Cliff Avril recorded six of his team-leading 11.5 sacks in his last six home games while fellow Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Bennett has registered one in back-to-back postseason contests.
TRENDS:
* Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Lions last 10 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 playoff games.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: So far the public is backing the underdog with 61 percent of Covers users wagering on the Lions. Meanwhile the Over is getting 58 percent of the action on the total.
WC - Raiders at Texans
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Oakland at Houston (-3.5/36.5)
The Raiders likely wouldn’t be playing in this game if Derek Carr hadn’t broken his fibula courtesy of a Trent Cole sack in a 33-25 win over the Colts just before Christmas. Backup Matt McGloin was ineffective and then injured in Sunday’s loss in Denver, banishing Oakland to the Wild Card round as Kansas City rose up to win the AFC West and the No. 2 seed, currently basking in the bye that goes with it.
Instead of opening at home next week with Carr under center, the Raiders open their first playoff game since losing Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003 hoping to survive with rookie Connor Cook under center. The Michigan State product becomes the first quarterback ever to get his first career start in the postseason. It will be his first start since the College Football Playoff semifinals on Dec. 31, 2015, where his Spartans suffered a 38-0 loss to eventual champion Alabama.
Cook will have a much better supporting cast around him than he had in college, but he’ll be right back up against an elite defense, one that has overcome the loss of J.J. Watt to rank first in fewest yards allowed (301.3), coming in second in passing yards allowed (201.6). The Texans have fared extremely well defensively to compensate for their own quarterback woes, so this will be a real challenge for Cook, especially with the intensity ratcheted up during the playoffs in a road environment.
Cook threw his first touchdown pass on a 32-yard strike to Amari Cooper, but also suffered his first pro sack/fumble and threw his first interception. It was an eventful baptism by fire against the likes of Von Miller and Aqib Talib, the same ferocious unit that knocked out McGloin in the first half when Jared Crick roughed him, causing a left shoulder injury that should render him the backup here. If he’s unable to go, Garrett Gilbert would be activated from the practice squad.
In an ironic twist, the Texans went from having one of the most unstable quarterback situations in the league to the most secure in their first playoff matchup due to Oakland’s plight. Tom Savage, who had supplanted Brock Osweiler after rallying Houston past Jacksonville on Dec. 18, suffered a concussion in the first half of last week’s meaningless loss at Tennessee. Although he was initially cleared to return, he ended up sitting out the second half and won’t be a part of Sunday’s actions. Brandon Weeden will back up Osweiler, who has started 14 games and thrown 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in an unsuccessful first season after signing a four-year, $72 million contract in March to come in and alleviate all concerns at the position.
Remember, Houston was in this exact position at this time last year, coming off winning an ugly AFC South and hosting Kansas City to open Wild Card weekend. Brian Hoyer threw four interceptions and fumbled once. The Chiefs won 30-0.
Osweiler was inked as the fix, but If he hears boos at NRG Stadium on Saturday afternoon, it won’t be the first time. As it turns out, Texans fans no longer love the investment. Still, Osweiler does have postseason experience and certainly knows the Raiders, having been in a division with them during his formative years in Denver and having just faced them on Nov. 21 in Week 11.
Houston led the Raiders 20-13 in the fourth quarter of a Monday night game played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, and Osweiler had his moments when he wasn’t having a laser pointer being shined in his eyes. He connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a 60-yard touchdown and completed 66.7 percent of his passes, his third-highest clip this season.
Carr rescued the game with a pair of clutch touchdown passes and continued to carve out a niche as a guy who raised his level when it mattered most, but that x-factor is no longer in play. It’s imperative to Oakland’s chances that they don’t put Cook in a position where he has to go into rescue mode.
With both quarterbacks facing defense featuring feared pass rushers and talented athletes in the secondary, the expectation is that the conservative approach will reign, leading prognosticators to place this total at a very low 36.5-37.
LINE MOVEMENT
This line opened with the Texans as 3-point favorites and set the total at 37.5. The number has since moved to the 36.5-37 with money coming in on the under and Houston at home. Oakland easily surpassed its season win total of 8.5 at the WestgateLV SuperBook, which also set it at 8.5 for the Texans. Houston paid off 10/11 odds at the start of the season to win the AFC South.
INJURY CONCERNS
Beyond Carr and McGloin, the Raiders are also likely to be without safety Nate Allen due to a concussion. Left tackle Donald Penn, who has been among the best at his position this season, hasn't practiced and may be a game-time decision with a knee injury. Receivers Michael Crabtree (ankle), Cooper (shoulder) and Andre Holmes (shoulder) have all been limited but should play. The same applies to lineman Kelechi Osemele (ankle) and safety Karl Joseph (toe). Tackle Austin Howard (shoulder) will return after missing the Denver loss.
The Texans were without DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Johnathan Joseph and LB Brian Cushing against Tennesssee, but all are healthy and good to go after getting rest. Houston is as healthy as they've been all season, missing only Savage and potentially, LB John Simon (chest). Leading rusher Lamar Miller, who hasn't played since suffering an ankle injury on Dec. 18, will also return. He's rushed for a team-high 1,073 yards this season.
GROUND GAME ASSESSMENT
Since both teams will likely prefer to place the burden of the offense and their offensive lines and their running backs, it’s worth knowing who is most likely to be effective. The Texans will rely on Miller and also have Alfred Blue, who has started the last two games and was the lone offensive bright spot in last year’s 30-0 loss, rushing for 99 yards on 17 carries. Houston has averaged 4.1 yards per carry and rushed for 1,859 yards, the eighth-highest total in the NFL.
Oakland has three capable backs in Latavius Murray and explosive rookies Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. The Raiders ended up sixth with 1,922 and averaged 4.4 yards per carry, tied for 10th best. They ran for 17 touchdowns, tied for sixth-most in the league, while the Texans managed just eight, tied for 29th behind only the N.Y. Giants.
Houston allowed 4.0 yards per carry while Oakland surrendered 4.5.
RECENT MEETINGS (Oakland 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; OVER 4-1)
11/21/16 Oakland 27-20 vs. Houston (OAK -6.5, 46.5)
9/14/14 Houston 30-14 at Oakland (HOU -3, 40)
11/17/13 Oakland 28-23 at Houston (HOU -10.5, 41)
10/9/11 Oakland 25-20 at Houston (HOU -4.5, 48.5)
10/3/10 Houston 31-24 at Oakland (HOU -3.5, 44)
PROPS
Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that combined sack prop going over and would take a shot at the first score being a field goal.
Lamar Miller rushing yards 75.5: (-110 o/u)
Raiders completions 18.5: (-110 o/u)
Texans completions 20: (-110 o/u)
Eli Manning passing yards 254.5: (-110 o/u)
Michael Crabtree receiving yards 50.5: (-110 o/u)
Texans TD passes/INT 2: (-120 over/ +100 under)
Raiders TD Passes/INT 2: (-110 o/u)
Total combined sacks 3.5: (+105 over, -125 under)
First score of game will be: (-125 TD, +105 other)
Total points: Texans 20, Raiders 16.5 (-110 o/u)
RAIDERS AS A ROAD DOG
Although Oakland looked pretty formidable from the onset in opening 4-1, it has been a road dog five times this season, including last week's 24-6 loss in Denver. The Raiders are 3-2 SU/ATS, losing their last two at the Chiefs and Broncos after winning outright as a short dog at New Orleans, Baltimore and Jacksonville. The Raiders were 3-2 straight up and 5-0 ATS as a road underdog last season.
TEXANS AS A HOME FAVORITE
Houston was favored six times at NRG Stadium and was only an underdog once, losing to San Diego on Nov. 27. Its Week 2 win over Kansas City was a pick'em and it went 6-0 straight up (3-2-2 ATS) when favored.
WC - Lions at Seahawks
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The first NFC Wild Card game takes place in Seattle on Saturday night between the Seahawks and Lions. Seattle is playing its first home playoff game since the 2014 NFC Championship in which the Seahawks rallied past the Packers in overtime. Detroit is back in the postseason for the first time since falling at Dallas in the Wild Card round of the 2014 campaign, while searching for its playoff win since 1991.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
Seattle (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) extended its playoff streak to five straight seasons after capturing its third NFC West title since 2013. Pete Carroll’s defense once again ranked in the top five of several categories including points per game (3rd at 18.3) and yardage allowed per game (5th at 318.7). Quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a career-best 4,219 yards, but was also intercepted a career-high 21 times, which included a five-interception game in a December loss at Green Bay.
Wilson owns a terrific 7-3 record as a starter in the playoffs since 2012, including a perfect 4-0 mark at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks compiled a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS home ledger this season, while limiting five opponents to 18 points or less. Seattle went through an uneven finish to the season following an 8-2-1 start by finishing 3-3 in the final six contests. Four times in 2016 the Seahawks were held to 10 points or less, but all four of those performances came on the highway.
Detroit (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) began the season at 1-3, which included a 17-14 loss at Chicago in Week 4 as three-point favorites. The Lions would turn things around from there by winning eight of the next nine games, including seven victories in which they trailed in the fourth quarter. Jim Caldwell’s squad stumbled to the finish with three straight losses to the Giants, Cowboys, and Packers, all playoff teams, while giving up 73 points in the last two defeats.
Matthew Stafford put up similar numbers as last season, as the Lions’ quarterback posted 4,327 yards and threw a career-low 10 interceptions. However, Stafford’s numbers have gone down since dislocating the middle finger on his throwing hand in a comeback victory against Chicago in Week 14. In the last three losses, Stafford has compiled two touchdowns and three interceptions, while one of those touchdown passes came in the final minute of a 31-24 loss to the Packers last Sunday.
TOTAL TALK
The Lions finished UNDER the total in 10 of 16 games this season, including going 5-1 to the UNDER in the past six contests away from Ford Field. In spite of Seattle’s dominant defense, the Seahawks hit the OVER nine times in 2016, while going 4-1 to the OVER in the final five games.
PLAYOFF HISTORY
The Seahawks dodged a bullet in the Wild Card round last season against the Vikings on a last-second missed field goal in a 10-9 victory as four-point favorites. Seattle fell behind in the next round at Carolina, 31-0 after two quarters, but staged a furious comeback before losing, 31-24 to fall short of their third straight Super Bowl appearance. In the four home playoff wins with Wilson at quarterback, the Seahawks are 2-2 ATS, while the defense has limited the opposition to 22 points or less in each game.
The Lions last won a playoff game in 1991 with Erik Kramer at quarterback against the Cowboys at the Silverdome, 38-6. Since that blowout, Detroit has dropped eight consecutive postseason contests, including each of the last seven on the highway. Detroit’s last playoff appearance was a narrow loss in the 2014 Wild Card round at Dallas, 24-20, but the Lions cashed as six-point underdogs. The Lions blew a 14-0 lead in the loss as Stafford has yet to win a playoff game in two tries.
SERIES HISTORY
These teams didn’t meet this season, as Detroit fell short in a 13-10 setback at Seattle in 2015. The Lions’ offense didn’t reach the end zone as the defense scored on a 27-yard fumble recovery in the fourth quarter for the only Detroit touchdown. Seattle failed to cover as 10-point home favorites, but safety Kam Chancellor saved the win for the Seahawks by knocking the ball out Calvin Johnson’s hands at the one-yard line. Linebacker K.J. Wright tapped the ball out of the end zone for a touchback and preserve a Seattle win and send Detroit to an 0-4 start.
Stafford is 0-2 in his career at CenturyLink Field, but rallied Detroit to a 28-24 home triumph in 2014 over Seattle as 2 ½-point favorites. The Lions and Seahawks have never met in the postseason, while Detroit’s last win at Seattle came in 1999 at the old Kingdome as Charlie Batch started at quarterback in that season opener for the Lions.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Seahawks as eight-point favorites, while the total came out at 42 ½. The side has stayed the same for most of the week, but the total has jumped to 43 and even 43 ½ at several books. Game time temperatures are expected to be in the high 30’s with a 30% of snowstorms.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson looks at Detroit’s late-season meltdown and how that will affect the Lions, “Detroit struggled with turnovers in the final month (-7) with a hand injury to Stafford possibly having more of an impact than anyone with the team has admitted. Stafford had a fine season but struggled down the stretch though in fairness the three losses to close the season all came in fairly competitive efforts vs. three of the top teams in the NFC.”
From a numbers standpoint, Nelson feels there are different ways to analyze it, “The statistics paint a big edge for Seattle, but while the Seahawks have been an inconsistent group with a few dominant wins skewing the numbers, Detroit has been consistently competitive. Five of seven losses for the Lions came by seven or fewer points while eight of nine wins came by seven or fewer points as Detroit was caught in close games almost every week.”
PROPS
Detroit
M. Stafford – Total Completions
25 – OVER (-110)
25 – UNDER (-110)
M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-110)
1½ - UNDER (-110)
G. Tate – Total Receiving Yards
67½ - OVER (-110)
67½ - UNDER (-110)
Seattle
R. Wilson – Total Gross Passing Yards
264½ - OVER (-110)
264½ - UNDER (-110)
R. Wilson – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-130)
1½ - UNDER (+110)
J. Graham – Total Receiving Yards
55½ - OVER (-110)
55½ - UNDER (-110)
SUPER BOWL ODDS
The Seahawks opened the season at 8/1 odds to win the Super Bowl along with the Patriots and Steelers at the Westgate Superbook. Seattle is currently tied for fourth with Atlanta at 12/1 odds capture Super Bowl LI, while at 5/1 odds to win the NFC championship. Detroit started 2016 at 40/1 odds to hoist the title in Houston, but those numbers have dropped to 100/1 with the Lions needing three road victories just to get to the Super Bowl.
Vegas Money Moves - WC
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The general public has spoken this week at the Las Vegas betting windows and they've shown that they like Sunday's two Wild Card games much more than Saturday's. However, the wise guys could care less in their constant search for value and they jumped quickly on all the games.
"The two Saturday games have minimal action, but the Sunday games are attracting lots of attention and it's two-way on both," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "Pittsburgh is getting a lot more parlay action, but the straight bets are all even."
The Steelers have won seven straight heading into this game, but Miami has won nine of its past 11, a run that was started with a 30-15 home win over the Steelers in Week 6. The spread in that game was Pittsburgh -7.5 when Miami was 1-4 and Pittsburgh was 4-1 at the time.
While Pittsburgh -10.5 might appear a little excessive, South Point sports book director Chris Andrews likes where he's at with it.
"Some of sharper players I know, not guys in any (betting) groups, but just guys who I respect their opinions laid Steelers -10 and when we moved to -10.5 we got some wise-guy play taking Miami, but we're still at -10.5. I have a feeling this game may run higher," Andrews said.
Weather should play a role at Heinz Field with a wind chill at zero degrees and winds up to 13 mph. The total is sitting steady at 46 across Las Vegas after opening 47. There's actually poor weather expected in all three outdoor stadiums.
"We expected poor weather conditions in all three of the outdoor games and figured it into the opening number," said Kornegay.
Lambeau Field will have a wind chill at -7 as the Packers welcome the Giants in a rematch from Week 5 when the Packers won 23-16, pushing on the number at -7. Green Bay comes in streaking with a six-game winning streak and bettors have driven the number up from the opener of -3.5.
"I thought -4 was a good number," said Andrews, "but we've been bet up to -5. I really thought we'd get more Giants money than we have, but it's been two-way since being at -5."
The last two times the New York Giants won the Super Bowl, they went through Lambeau Field each time in the playoffs. If thinking Super Bowl again, they're relatively low at 16/1 odds despite having to win four games on the road. In the Giants last two Super Bowl wins they started in the Wild Card round and were offered at 30-to-1 odds or higher. Part of the reason for decline in odds is because of piled up risk since odds were posted in February.
"The only team we do poorly with in futures is the Giants," Andrews said.
The other team that is risky all over town in Super Bowl futures is Oakland, but without quarterback Derek Carr, no book is really sweating. The Westgate is offering 100/1 odds to win it all which would start with winning behind third-string QB Coonor Cook at Houston on Saturday. Wise guys showed their hand immediately when numbers were first posted.
"Sharps are on Houston," said Andrews. "They laid -2.5 and -3 and we've had good two-way at -3. The bulk of the straight bet action was laying -2.5. We've still got some decent public play on Oakland."
The feeling from the sharps is that the largest disparity in point value from a starter to back-up in the NFL is Aaron Rodgers and then it's Carr. The decrease in the ratings wasn't as significant as it should have been in the eyes of wise guys.
The other Saturday game could have freezing rain in Seattle with a 26 degree wind chill as Detroit visits riding a three-game losing streak.
"We opened Seattle -7 and got wagers right away,' said Andrews. "We eventually went to -8.5 until getting some buy-back on Detroit. Seattle is the big teaser and large money-line parlay risk that extends into Sunday with the Steelers. A Lions outright win would be really good for us."
The sports books ultimate wish list for wild card round this week is the Lions to win and covers from Miami, Oakland and Giants.
WC - Dolphins at Steelers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Dolphins and Steelers play in the second AFC Wild Card game coming up on Sunday at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. Miami started the season slowly, but went on a 9-1 run to clinch a playoff berth as this hot streak began with a home victory over Pittsburgh in October. The Steelers will be looking for revenge, while seeking their eighth consecutive victory since losing at home to Dallas in November.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
Miami (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) began this season under new head coach Adam Gase with a miserable September by losing road games at Seattle, New England, and Cincinnati. The only victory came in overtime against a Browns’ squad that finished the season at 1-15. Following a home loss in Week 5 to Tennessee, the Dolphins started their turnaround by beating the Steelers, 30-15 as Miami gained 474 yards of offense. The Dolphins would win their next five games, including comeback victories on the road at Los Angeles and San Diego.
Although Miami dropped its season finale to New England, the Dolphins were covering machines on the road by cashing in five of their final six games away from Hard Rock Stadium. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill finished five yards shy of 3,000 passing for the season when Arizona’s Calais Campbell hit the Miami signal-caller in the knee and ending his regular season. Matt Moore stepped in and won road games over the Jets and Bills, as the veteran has thrown for eight touchdowns and three interceptions in three starts.
Pittsburgh (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) went through a roller-coaster season en route to its second AFC North title in the last three season. The Steelers jumped out to an impressive 4-1 record the first five games, but dropped the next four contests, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in the Miami loss and sat out a 27-16 home defeat to New England. Pittsburgh started its current hot streak in a Week 11 blowout victory of Cleveland, as the Steelers are on a 5-1-1 ATS run during this seven-game stretch.
Roethlisberger finished under 4,000 yards passing for the second straight season (3,819), but threw 29 touchdown passes, the third-best mark in a season in his career. Running back Le’Veon Bell missed the first two games due to a suspension, as the former Michigan State standout eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark in five of his last six games. Wide receiver Antonio Brown finished fifth in the league in receiving yards (1,284) and second in receptions (106), but doesn’t have a 100-yard receiving game since Week 10 against Dallas.
HOME/AWAY STATS
The Steelers compiled a 6-2 SU and 4-3-1 ATS record at Heinz Field this season, while the OVER hit in four of eight home games. Pittsburgh was listed as a home favorite of 6 ½ points or more twice this season, covering in wins over the Jets and Giants. Miami started the season at 0-3 away from South Florida, but won four of its final five road contests. The Dolphins didn’t beat any playoff teams on the road, while riding a 4-1 OVER streak in the past five away games.
SERIES HISTORY
In the most recent matchup at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 6, the Dolphins ripped the Steelers, 30-15 as 7 ½-point home underdogs. Miami running back Jay Ajayi ran all over the Pittsburgh defense for 204 yards and two touchdowns, one of three games in which he eclipsed the 200-yard rushing mark this season. Ajayi won the rushing battle with Bell, who was limited to 53 yards on 10 carries. Brown compiled only 39 yards receiving yards on four receptions, while Miami’s Jarvis Landry put up 91 yards on seven catches.
Miami won its previous visit to Heinz Field in December 2013 by a 34-28 count as three-point underdogs. Both Tannehill and Roethlisberger each threw three touchdown passes, including a Big Ben 43-yard connection to Brown in the third quarter. The Dolphins and Steelers haven’t met in the postseason since the 1984 AFC Championship at the Orange Bowl when Dan Marino led Miami to a 45-28 triumph before losing Super Bowl XIX to the 49ers.
PLAYOFF HISTORY
Miami ended its seven-year playoff drought by qualifying this season with a Wild Card berth. The Dolphins’ last postseason appearance was one to forget, a 27-9 home defeat to the Ravens in 2008. In Miami’s last three playoff games, the Dolphins have scored a total of 12 points, while winning their last postseason contest in 2000 against Indianapolis.
The Steelers have won only one playoff game since the 2011 postseason by beating the Bengals in last year’s Wild Card game, 18-16. Pittsburgh has dropped its previous two home Wild Card games to Baltimore in 2014 and Jacksonville in 2007. In 17 career playoff games, Roethlisberger is 11-6, including a 5-3 home mark.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Steelers as 10-point favorites at even money, while the total opened at 47. Pittsburgh has been bet up to 10½ and even 11 at several books, as the total has dropped to 45½ with game time temperatures hovering in the teens at 13 degrees.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson takes a look at Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin playoff history, which isn’t sterling, “Tomlin is 6-5 SU in his playoff career, but the Steelers are just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in the past five postseason games going back to the Super Bowl XLV loss six years ago. This will be the biggest favorite spread for the Steelers in the playoffs under Tomlin and Pittsburgh’s largest playoff margin of victory under Tomlin is 11 points during the 2009 championship run with the last five Pittsburgh playoff wins coming by nine or fewer points.”
Nelson points out an interesting trend involving heavy playoff favorites and their recent success, “Playoff favorites of 10 or more points are rare with this being the just the sixth instance over the last seven seasons with those teams going 5-1 SU and ATS. From 2000 to 2009 double-digit playoff favorites went just 7-6 SU and 2-10-1 ATS."
PROPS
Miami
M. Moore – Total Gross Passing Yards
235½ - OVER (-110)
235½ - UNDER (-110)
M. Moore – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (+120)
1½ - UNDER (-140)
Pittsburgh
B. Roethlisberger – Total Completions
23½ - OVER (-110)
23½ - UNDER (-110)
B. Roethlisberger – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (-135)
2 – UNDER (+115)
L. Bell – Total Rushing Yards
95½ - OVER (-110)
95½ - UNDER (-110)
A. Brown – Total Receiving Yards
88½ - OVER (-110)
88½ - UNDER (-110)
SUPER BOWL ODDS
The Dolphins began the season at 50/1 odds to win Super Bowl LI at the Westgate Superbook, but those odds have jumped to 100/1 with a visit to Pittsburgh, followed by a potential meeting with New England next week. Pittsburgh was one of the three favorites at 8/1 to start the season, as those odds have stayed at the same 8/1 odds heading into Sunday’s action.
WC - Giants at Packers
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Eli Manning has the same amount of postseason wins at Lambeau Field as Aaron Rodgers does. The Giants have gone into Green Bay and twice sent the Packers to vacation early since 2007. The G-Men will get a shot at the hat trick Sunday when they invade the frozen tundra to face Rodgers and Co. at 4:40 p.m. Eastern on FOX.
The weather is going to be brutal, but it won’t be on the level it was in January of 2008 when Tom Coughlin’s face appeared as if it was going to need reconstructive surgery. As of Friday, the forecast was calling for a low temperature of seven degrees Sunday night. Winds could reach nine miles per hour and bring the wind chill down to one degree.
As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Green Bay listed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Gamblers could take New York on the money line for a +185 return (risk $100 to win $185). For first-half wagers, the Packers were three-point ‘chalk’ (with a -115 or -120 price attached to it) with a total of 22.5 points.
Green Bay (10-6 straight up, 9-6-1 against the spread) lost four straight games and five of six to leave it with a 4-6 record in mid-November. The sky was falling in Wisconsin and the critics were out in force.
Since then, however, Mike McCarthy’s squad has ripped off six consecutive victories to win the NFC North. The Packers are 5-1 ATS during this span, winning three of those games by double digits and five by at least seven points.
Green Bay went to Ford Field last Sunday night with the division title on the line and captured a 31-24 win at Detroit as a 3.5-point road favorite. The 55 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 50.5-point total with 13 seconds remaining when Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford hit Anquan Boldin for a 35-yard scoring strike.
Rodgers completed 27-of-39 throws for 300 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He also scrambled for 42 yards on 10 attempts in a flawless performance. In the last seven games, the University of California product has carried his team to the postseason by throwing 18 TD passes without being intercepted.
Geronimo Allison hauled in four receptions for 91 yards and one TD, while Jordy Nelson had six catches for 66 yards against the Lions. Davante Adams had six grabs for 31 yards and two TDs, and Jared Cook brought down four catches for 56 yards. Aaron Ripkowski rushed for 61 yards on nine carries, while Ty Montgomery had 44 rushing yards on eight attempts.
Green Bay has won six of its eight home games while compiling a 5-2-1 spread record at Lambeau. When listed as single-digit home ‘chalk,’ the Packers have posted a 4-2-1 spread record with a pair of outright defeats.
McCarthy’s offense is ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27.0 points per game. The Packers are eighth in total offense, seventh in passing and 20th in rushing.
Rodgers has connected on 65.7 percent of his passes for the season, netting 4,428 passing yards with a 40/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Nelson has made 97 receptions for 1,257 yards and 14 TDs, while Adams has hauled in 75 catches for 997 yards and 12 TDs. Randall Cobb, who has missed three games, including the last two but is ‘probable’ this week, has 60 grabs for 610 yards and four TDs.
Montgomery, a second-year player out of Stanford who moved from WR to RB this year due to injuries, has a team-best 457 rushing yards and three TDs with a 5.9 yards per carry. Montgomery also has 44 catches for 348 yards.
Green Bay is ranked 22nd in the league in total defense, 31st against the pass, eighth versus the run and 21st in scoring (24.2 PPG). This unit is led by LB Nick Perry and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who has 62 tackles, 18 assists, seven passes defensed, one forced fumble and five interceptions. Perry missed a pair of games but still recorded a team-high 11 sacks, 35 tackles, 17 assists, four passes defensed and one interception.
New York (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) garnered a wild-card berth by winning nine of its last 11 games while compiling an 8-3 spread record. The Giants closed the regular season in style by denying division-rival Washington a playoff berth by capturing a 19-10 win as nine-point road underdogs. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie intercepted a pair of Kirk Cousins’ passes and recorded a sack. Trevin Wade scooped up a fumble and returned it 11 yards for a TD on the game’s final play.
Manning is hoping to lead his team to a third Super Bowl victory on his watch. The Ole Miss product completed 63.0 percent of his passes during the regular season for 4,027 yards with a 26/16 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is Odell Beckham Jr., who has 101 receptions for 1,367 yards and 10 TDs.
Sterling Shepard enjoyed a breakout rookie campaign, bringing down 65 catches for 683 yards and eight TDs. After missing all of last season and most of the previous year, Victor Cruz returned to play in 15 games and start in 12. He isn’t nearly the player he used to be, but he had 39 receptions for 586 yards and one TD.
New York’s ground game leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 29th in the league. The G-Men are just 25th in total offense and 26th in scoring (19.4 PPG).
In 13 games, Rashad Jennings rushed for a team-high 593 yards but did so while averaging a pedestrian 3.3 YPC. Paul Perkins, a rookie RB out of UCLA who rushed for a career-high 101 yards on 21 carries last week at Washington, has run for 456 yards while averaging 4.1 YPC. Jennings has 35 receptions for 201 yards and one TD, while Perkins has 15 catches for 162 yards.
New York is ranked second in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.8 PPG. The Giants are 10th in total defense and fourth at defending the run.
This unit is led by safety Landon Collins, who has 100 tackles, 25 assists, five interceptions, four sacks, one fumble recovery and 13 passes defensed. Rodgers-Cromartie produced 41 tackles, eight assists, 21 passes defensed, one forced fumble, one sack and a team-best six interceptions.
The Giants are 4-3-1 ATS with four outright victories in eight games as underdogs.
When these teams met at Lambeau in Week 5, Green Bay won a 23-16 decision as a seven-point home ‘chalk.’ The Giants managed the backdoor push by getting an eight-yard TD pass from Manning to Beckham with 2:54 remaining. The 39 combined points fell ‘under’ the 49-point total.
Rodgers completed 23-of-45 passes for 259 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted twice by veteran CB Janoris Jenkins. Eddie Lacy, who is on injured reserve and won’t be available this time around, rushed for 81 yards on 11 attempts. Cobb had nine receptions for 108 yards, while Adams had five catches for 85 yards and one TD. Nelson had four grabs for 38 yards and one TD.
Manning completed 18-of-35 throws for 199 yards and one TD without an interception. Beckham had five catches for 56 yards and one TD.
We mentioned the ’08 game earlier, Brett Favre’s last as a Packer. He was intercepted in overtime by LSU product Corey Webster, whose pick set up Lawrence Tynes’ for the 47-yard game-winning FG to send the G-Men to the Super Bowl. On that unfathomably cold day, Manning completed 21-of-40 passes for 251 yards.
On Jan. 15 of 2012, New York once again had to go through Green Bay on its way to another Super Bowl. But there was no drama on that day, as the Giants smashed the Packers 37-20 as 8.5-point road underdogs. Manning connected on 21-of-33 passes for 330 yards with three TDs and one interception. Cruz had five catches for 74 yards.
Rodgers completed 26-of-46 attempts for 264 yards with two TDs and one interception. Nelson had three receptions for 39 yards, while Cobb had three catches for 38 yards.
New York has won four of the last six head-to-head meetings dating back to the January ’08 game, going 5-1-1 ATS. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight encounters.
The ‘under’ is on a 7-1 roll for the Giants in their last eight outings. They’ve watched the ‘under’ go 12-4 overall, 7-1 in their eight road assignments. Their games have averaged combined scores of 37.1 PPG. The ‘over’ has hit in four straight Green Bay games and eight of its last 10. The ‘over’ is 10-6 overall for Green Bay, 4-4 in its home contests. The Packers have seen their games average combined scores of 51.2 PPG.
Green Bay CB Quinten Rollins left last week’s win at Detroit and is in the concussion protocol. Rollins, who is listed as ‘questionable’ (as of Friday), has started 10 games and has 39 tackles, two assists, eight passes defensed and one interception.
NFL Wild Card Betting Preview: Dolphins at Steelers
By Covers.com
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 45.5)
The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the playoffs on a seven-game winning streak and tied for the most postseason victories (34) in league history, but they are not focused on their string of successes. Instead, the Steelers will be looking to atone for one of their worst performances of the season when they host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in an AFC wild-card matchup.
Pittsburgh secured the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the conference with its strong finishing run, which partly was necessitated by a four-game losing streak that started with a 30-15 drubbing in Miami on Oct. 15. While the Steelers will be at home in the rematch and temperatures are expected to peak at a frosty 20 degrees on Sunday, offensive coordinator Todd Haley did little to douse the revenge angle by proclaiming: "We’re thankful we get another crack at a team that kicked our butts." The Dolphins won nine of 10 prior to a loss to New England in the regular-season finale to nail down their first postseason berth since 2008, but they lost starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill to injury in Week 14 and will be forced to go with veteran Matt Moore versus Pittsburgh. "I feel real good," Moore, who will be making his first career postseason start, told reporters. "It's an unbelievable opportunity. ... This is my second time ever being part of a team that's going to the playoffs, so I'm excited."
POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (-0.5) - Steelers (-5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -7.5
LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 10-point home favorites and that line appears fine with bettors as it hasn’t moved. The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and has been bet down two full points to 45.5. Check out the complete history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Heinz Field is Pittsburgh is calling for mainly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 20’s at kickoff. The wind could be a factor blowing out of the northwest between 12-16 mph.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: We opened the Steelers as a 10 point favourite at home and took early acton on the Dolphins (over 55%) but not enough to move our line. Just now we moved the Steelers to -10.5 as we took some sharp action on them at -10. As we sit now we have just over 50% of the action on the Dolphins to cover the spread. Michael Stewart at CarbonSports.ag
INJURY REPORT:
Dolphins - CB Byron Maxwell (probable, ankle), LB Jelani Jenkins (probable, knee), DE Mario Williams (probable, ankle), S Bacarri Rambo (questionable, chest), QB Ryan Tannehill (out indefinitely, knee)
Steelers - CB Justin Gilbert (probable, shoulder), TE Ladarius Green (probable, concussion), WR Sammie Coates (probable, hamstring), DE Stephon Tuitt (probable, knee), DE Johnny Maxey (questionable, ankle), LB Vince Williams (questionable, shoulder), S Robert Golden (questionable, ankle), DE Ricardo Mathews (questionable, ankle), LB Anthony Chickillo (questionable, ankle)
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 12-4 O/U): No matter who is under center, Miami's game plan figures to follow the blueprint of the mid-October matchup, when running back Jay Ajayi tore through Pittsburgh's defense for 204 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. It was the first of three 200-yard rushing performances this season by Ajayi, which is why Steelers coach Mike Tomlin stressed that Pittsburgh's defense cannot act like his dominant game "was by no means a lightning strike." Moore, who had just 30 pass attempts in his previous four seasons with the Dolphins, put up solid numbers in his three starts (674 yards, eight TDs, three interceptions) and has a trio of talented wide receivers in Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills. Miami's defense ranked 30th against the run (140.4 yards per game) but limited Steelers rushers to 53 yards in the first matchup.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Le'Veon Bell ran a season-low 10 times against Miami, but he recorded at least 20 carries in each of his last six games before sitting out Week 17 and was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month for December/January after rushing for 569 yards and four touchdowns while catching 18 passes in four games. "This is going to be my first playoff game in my fourth year in the league. I'm going to be pumped, and I need that," Bell told reporters. "I obviously want to go out there and show some people what I can do." Bell is one of two elite weapons for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has two Super Bowl championships on his resume and one of the league's top wideouts in Antonio Brown - the conference leader with 12 touchdown receptions who surpassed 100 catches for the fourth straight season. Pittsburgh's defense led the league with 21 sacks from Weeks 11-16.
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
* Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Dolphins last 6 games overall.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Steelers last 16 playoff home games.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: So far the betting public is backing the underdog with 52 percent of Covers users wagering on the Dolphins. Meanwhile the Over is getting 56 percent of the action on the total.
NFL Wild Card Betting Preview: Giants at Packers
By Covers.com
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 44.5)
Pro Bowl quarterback Aaron Rodgers proved to be a man of his word when he told reporters that the Green Bay Packers were capable of running the table to secure a playoff bid. Six straight wins led to the eighth straight postseason appearance for Green Bay, which looks to remain on the fast track when it hosts the New York Giants on Sunday in an NFC wild-card matchup at Lambeau Field.
"Look, I just talked about running the table and getting into the playoffs. Obviously, it's win or go home at this point. That's the focus," Rodgers, who tossed 15 of his NFL-best 40 touchdown passes during the Packers' winning streak, told reporters. The 33-year-old recorded his second straight four-TD performance in Sunday's 31-24 victory over Detroit, securing the NFC North title for his team and conference Player of the Month honors to boot. While Green Bay has been a staple in the playoffs, New York is making its first postseason appearance since it posted a victory over the Packers in the divisional round of the 2011-12 playoffs en route to upending New England in Super Bowl XLVI. Eli Manning, who has won eight of his last nine playoff starts, completed just 18-of-35 passes for 199 yards in a 23-16 loss to Green Bay on Oct. 9.
POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-2.5) - Packers (-4) + home field (-3) = Packers -4.5
LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 4.5-home favorites briefly faded to 3.5 Tuesday morning, returned to the opening number -4.5 later in the afternoon and has held ever since. The total opened at 44.5 and hasn’t moved off that number all week. Check out the complete history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Lambeau Field is mostly sunny and bitter cold, with temperatures in mid-teens in the afternoon dropping to single digits into the evening. There will be winds blowing from the west between 8-12 mph.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: Another same season rematch with the Giants looking to avenge a 23-16 home loss suffered to the Packers in early October. El Manning’s postseason success jumps off the page (8-1 SUATS last nine playoff games), but Aaron Rodgers’ red-hot hand (6-0 SU down the stretch with 18 TDs and 0 INTs) certainly makes this a playoff game worth watching. Covers Expert Marc Lawrence
WHAT BOOKS SAY: We opened the Packers as -3.5 point favourite and quickly took action on the Giants to cover pushing us all the way down Packers -3.5. We then took sharp action on the Packers at that number pushing us up to -4 then -4.5 and finally to our current number of -5. We are seeing solid two way action on this game with 51% of that landing on the Packers to cover. Michael Stewart at CarbonSports.ag
INJURY REPORT:
Giants - S Nat Berhe (probable, concussion), CB Coty Sensabaugh (probable, ankle), CB Janoris Jenkins (probable, back), DE Owa Odighizuma (questionable, hamstring), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, hernia), TE Jerell Adams (questionable, shoulder), WR Dwayne Harris (questionable, knee)
Packers - WR Randall Cobb (probable, ankle), CB Damarious Randall (probable, knee), LB Clay Matthews (probable, shoulder), OT Bryan Bulaga (probable, abdominal), OT Jason Spriggs (questionable, shoulder), LB Nick Perry (questionable, hand), G T.J. Lang (questionable, foot), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), LB Jayrone Elliott (questionable, hand), LB Joe Thomas (questionable, back), CB Quinten Rollins (doubtful, concussion), RB James Starks (out, concussion), CB Makinton Dorleant (IR, knee)
ABOUT THE GIANTS (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U): The flashy Odell Beckham Jr. (NFL third-best 101 receptions for 1,367 yards) and fellow wideout Victor Cruz were quick to dismiss Monday's celebrity-filled off-day trip to Miami as "much ado about nothing" rather than any sort of distraction heading into the playoff game. Beckham had five receptions among his team-high 12 targets and found the end zone in the waning moments of the first meeting with the Packers while Cruz was held without a catch. Cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week after reeling in two of his NFL second-best six interceptions in a 19-10 victory over Washington on Sunday.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U): Jordy Nelson recorded one of his NFL-best 14 touchdowns this season against the Giants, but he was quick to praise his opponents this week. "They've got a great secondary, from the corners and the safeties," he told reporters. "Not very often do teams have both - usually it's one or the other, for the most part. ... It will be a good battle." Randall Cobb won the battle the last time around with nine receptions for 108 yards, and the speedy wideout participated in both practices this week after missing the last two games with a left ankle injury. Fellow wide receiver Davante Adams, who also had a highlight-reel TD grab versus New York in the first meeting, had two touchdowns against the Lions last week and has five scoring receptions in his last five games at home.
TRENDS:
* Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 7-1 in Giants last 8 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Giants with 54 percent of users taking the road dog. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the Over.