Total Talk - WC Sunday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Bettors are starting at higher totals for Sunday’s NFL Wild Card matchups and the two games on tap both feature a solid ‘over’ team versus a solid ‘under’ team.
As mentioned in Saturday’s piece, the ‘under’ has gone 12-3-1 (80%) in the Wild Card Round the last past four postseasons and both the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers have contributed to that record.
Both of the games on tap for Sunday are expected to be played in extremely cold weather conditions and while the wind might not play that big of a factor, it’s fair to say that neither of the four teams will be comfortable.
For the playoffs, I’m going to break every game and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Miami at Pittsburgh
This total was sent out at 47 last Sunday and has dropped to as low as 45½ on Saturday morning.
Bettors could be scratching their heads with this total because Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 12-4 this season despite having an offense ranked 24th in total yards (332.8 YPG). They averaged 22.7 points per game, which was also ranked (17th) in the bottom half of the league.
Meanwhile Pittsburgh ranked seventh in total offense (372.6 YPG) and 11th in scoring (24.9 PPG) plus the attack put up more points at home (28.2 PPG) yet total bettors saw the team lean 10-6 to the ‘under’ this season.
There are two clear-cut reasons to Miami’s results, one being big plays and the other is touchdown to field goal ratio. Miami ranked second in big plays and thrived on them all season. When these teams met in Week 6, the Dolphins ran past the Steelers 30-15 and running back Jay Ajayi racked up 204 yards but make a note that 62 of those yards came on a meaningless touchdown run in the final minute of the game.
The Dolphins scored six times in that contest, three touchdowns and three field goals with the latter being a rare occurrence this season. Miami put up 41 offensive touchdowns and only 16 field goals. Including that result, the Steelers only gave up 30-plus points three times this season and they lost all three of those games.
Based on form, Pittsburgh’s offense is starting to pick up momentum and it’s averaged 26.7 PPG in the second-half of the season. That production helped the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their last four games and the Steelers did see four of their six ‘over’ tickets cash at Heinz Field.
The Dolphins enter this contest on a 6-0 ‘over’ run and the defense or lack therof has helped the cause. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is getting mentioned in vacant head coaching opportunities and I’m not sure why when you look at the numbers. The unit is allowing 23.8 PPG and is ranked 29th in total defense (382.6 YPG). They’ve given up close to 1,000 combined yards in their last two games and it’s hard to see them righting the ship in less than a week against the three-headed offensive monster of Pittsburgh.
Matt Moore will start for Miami at quarterback and he’s been solid in relief for Ryan Tannehill with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He’ll be facing a Steelers defense that is suspect against the pass (242.6 YPG) but strong against the run (100 YPG).
The Dolphins haven’t been in the playoffs since 2008 but the Steelers have a solid sample size under head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh has gone 6-5 in 11 career playoff games with him on the sidelines and the ‘over’ has gone 8-2-1 during that span with the two ‘under’ tickets coming last season.
Fearless Prediction: The Dolphins are playing with ‘house money’ in this spot and expect their season to end on Sunday, which isn’t a surprise since Pittsburgh is an overwhelming favorite. Bettors should be aware that Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go 9-1 in their last 10 games when listed as double-digit favorites. While the Pittsburgh-Over combination is the more ‘popular’ betting choice from the public, the Pittsburgh-Under parlay has cashed six times this season. I’m going to ride that again on Sunday and play the ‘under’ (46) in the game and take the Dolphins Team Total ‘under’ (16½) as well.
N.Y. Giants at Green Bay
It’s fair to say that the side and total in this game will be decided by the matchup between the Green Bay offense and New York defense. It’s a battle of strength versus strength and you could certainly argue both ways.
The Giants are ranked second in scoring defense (17.8 PPG) and 10th in total defense (339.7 YPG). Those numbers have helped the ‘under’ go 12-4 for New York this season and that includes a 7-1 run to the low side in the second-half of the season.
Meanwhile, Green Bay enters the playoffs with six straight wins and the ‘over’ closed on a 4-0 run behind an offense averaging 34.3 PPG in the last quarter of the season. QB Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been picked off during the winning streak while throwing for 15 touchdowns. Some pundits have questioned the quality of opponents for the Packers but three of those efforts came against playoff squads in Houston, Seattle and Detroit.
Defensively, these teams are very similar. They both finished the season with 25 takeaways and they had identical numbers in interceptions (18) and fumbles (7). New York (88.6 YPG) and Green Bay (94.7 YPG) were ranked fourth and eighth in rushing yards allowed, which makes you believe that both teams will be use the pass to open up the run. And if you look at the defensive numbers against the pass for both the Giants (251 YPG) and Packers (269 YPG), ranked 23rd and 31st, the ball should be flying around on Sunday.
The one question mark in this game is New York’s offense, in particular QB Eli Manning. The Giants regressed this season with 19.4 PPG compared to 26.2 PPG in the 2015 campaign. His numbers were down in yards, completions and touchdowns while has interceptions (16) have gone up from the two previous seasons.
When these teams met on Oct. 9 from Lambeau Field, Manning completed a season-low 51.4 percent (18-of-35) of his passes as the Giants dropped a 23-16 decision to the Packers. New York only managed one touchdown which came in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Fortunately for the Giants, Rodgers was off his game too (23-of-45, 259 yards, 2 TDS, 2 INTs) and Green Bay had to settle for three short field goals.
Including the meeting against the Packers, the Giants saw all three of their other games against the NFC North go ‘under’ this season. Green Bay was 3-1 to the ‘under’ versus the NFC East this season.
Since Manning has started for the Giants, the club has gone 8-3 in the playoffs which includes a pair of four-game winning streaks that ended in Super Bowl victories. The ‘under’ has gone 9-2 during this span but coincidentally the two ‘over’ winners came in victories against Green Bay from Lambeau Field.
The Giants stunned Green Bay and Brett Favre 23-20 in overtime of the 2007 NFC Championship game and ran past them again in the 2011 playoffs with a 37-20 victory in the Divisional Playoffs round. Manning was solid in both games but he didn’t make any mistakes and that’s the key to his success. Make a note that he’s 0-2 in the playoffs when he tosses two or more picks in a game.
Green Bay has gone 7-6 with Rodgers in the playoffs and the ‘over’ has posted a 7-6 in those games as well behind an offense averaging 28 PPG. The Packers have only played four home games in the postseason with him and they’ve gone 2-2 in those contests while the ‘under’ has produced a 3-1 mark.
Fearless Prediction: In the first encounter between the pair in October, they combined for nine scores with six of them being field goals. I think both clubs will get at least four scores and if the weather plays a role, those short field goal attempts could turn into extra opportunities for touchdowns. My lean is to the Giants Team Total ‘over’ (19½) and the game ‘over’ (44½).