NFL Wildcard Round Handicapping
By Steve Makinen
The playoffs are here. To NFL fans and bettors alike, its kind of a bittersweet time. In one sense, the best football is yet to come. On the other hand, there are only 11 games left to watch & wager on for the rest of the season. No more Sundays full of different options. At this point, your betting season has been pretty much defined, unless you plan on unleashing some off the wall money management strategy over the next month. Still, theres money to be made in the postseason, and like always, you need to be prepared. Over the course of the next few weeks, I will be taking a closer look at each round of the playoffs, digging up trends, systems, and other angles that might help us profit. Of course this week, we start with the Wildcard Round.
One of the things you need to consider before beginning your playoff handicapping is that things have changed in the postseason over the course of the last decade. What used to be the norm has now become unusual, what formerly was automatic has been shaky in recent years. For instance, home field advantage is nowhere near what it used to be in the playoffs. The importance of getting a bye in the first round has been overtaken by the concept of staying sharp through repetition. And strangely, teams playing their best football at the end of the regular season have also not held any significant edge, rather, it is simply a matter of which team plays best from here on out.
Still, with all the unpredictability that the NFL playoffs have offered in recent years, there are some statistical, situational, and other variables that can be used as a basis for our handicapping. Lets take a look at some of the basics of recent Wildcard Round history, then dig in a little deeper to see if we cant uncover some nuggets.
General Wildcard Trends
Perhaps the most important thing you need to know about the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs in recent years is that home teams and road teams have split the last 20 games since 05 straight up. Thats right, home teams are just 10-10 SU & 9-10-1 ATS. Here are some other tidbits:
There has been no specific edge in regards to the seed of the home team in winning or losing. In fact, since 05, #4 seeds are 5-5 SU & 5-4-1 ATS while #3 seeds are 5-5 SU & 4-6 ATS.
The extra day of rest has proven a hindrance for home teams when it comes to Wildcard performance, as Saturday home teams are 6-4 SU & 6-3-1 ATS since 05 while Sunday hosts have gone 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS.
In general, the Wildcard Round has been a low scoring round, with 14 of 20 games over the last five years going UNDER the total, producing 42.1 PPG on totals averaging 45.0.
Over the last 11 years, when the road team has won outright in the Wildcard Round, UNDER the total is 13-2 (87%). Conversely, home team wins have been accompanied by an OVER the total in 11 of 19 (58%) Wildcard games since 02.
Line Range Trends
The placement of a line by oddsmakers or the way that line moves over the course of the week has tipped the hand of some bettors. Take a look at these line specific trends:
Sizeable home favorites have been a solid bet in the Wildcard Round of late, as those laying a TD or more (7 pts) are 16-2 SU & 13-5 ATS (72%) since 94, including five straight wins since 05, both SU & ATS.
Wildcard home underdogs had won four straight games outright & ATS from 95-03, but since, the pendulum has swung, with road favorites going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS (67%) since 04, including two wins on Sunday of 09.
Be leery of the mid-ranged Wildcard home favorites, as those laying 3.5 to 6.5 points have struggled, going just 10-10 SU & 8-11-1 ATS (42%) since 94, including 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS since 03. Interestingly, seven straight games in this group have gone UNDER the total.
Small home favorites in the Wildcard Round have been more effective than their higher priced counterparts, perhaps benefitting from a lack of respect. Home chalk of 3-points or less are 15-5 SU & 11-6-3 ATS (65%) since 93.
Be aware of how lines move throughout the week, as bettors have had success dealing with the opening lines in recent years. In fact, when betting action has moved the line one way or the other since 03 in the Wildcard Round, this smart money is 13-5-1 ATS (72%). In other words, if the line moves towards the home team over the course of the week, that home team has been successful, and same goes for the road clubs.
Interestingly, in the last 17 seasons of Wildcard Round betting, only nine games have seen the opening line move by 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In those games, home teams have gone 7-1-1 ATS (88%), regardless of the direction of the line move.
Total Range Trends
With the majority of Wildcard games going UNDER the total in recent years, youd expect that we would be able to uncover some significant total angles by digging deeper. Lets take a look:
The extreme totals have produced the most OVER games, while the moderately posted totals by oddsmakers have meant lower scoring games. Dating back to 99, in games with totals posted in the 37-44.5 range, UNDER the total is 19-7 (73%). In games outside that range, the OVER has had at least a fighting chance, 8-10 (44%).
The betting public has had a very good handle on totals in the Wildcard Round, as since 93, when incoming action has moved the total higher, OVER players have gone 13-9 (59%). When the total has been pushed lower throughout the week, UNDER bettors have gone 21-12 (64%). In other words, if history serves, you have about a 62% chance of winning a total wager just by following the money.
The chances of winning a total bet improve even more if the total move was 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since 93, this smart money has gone 17-6 (74%).
Scoring Trends
As always, there are certain point thresholds that teams reach in the Wildcard Round that greatly influence their chances of winning or losing.
Home teams that fail to reach 20 points have little chance of winning according to recent history, having gone just 1-13 SU & ATS since 99. That same percentage of games, 13-1, went UNDER the total as well.
Those home teams that do reach and/or exceed the 20-point mark have been wildly successful in the Wildcard Round, going 28-2 SU & 23-5-2 ATS since 99.
The scoring breakdown for road teams in the Wildcard Round is even more distinctive than it is for hosts. Those Wildcard visitors that fail to reach 20 points are just 1-31 SU & 1-30-1 ATS since 93. The lone winner came in January 06, when Washington won at Tampa Bay, 17-10.
When road teams do make it to 20 points or higher, their chances of success improve tremendously, as they are 21-16 SU & 25-9-3 ATS since 93.
Specific Matchup Trends
Typically, about one of every four Wildcard games pits divisional opponents against one another. Of late, the advantage has gone to the familiar road team in these types of matchups. In fact, since 03, road teams in divisional Wildcard games are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS. In the less familiar games matching just conference opponents, conservative play has been the name of the game, with 10 of 13 games having gone UNDER the total dating back to 06.
Trends based upon Won-Lost Records
About one of every three Wildcard games matches teams with the same won-lost marks or the road team owning the better record. In such games over the last six years, the road club owns the edge, going 6-5 SU & 6-4-1 ATS. Here are a couple of other tidbits regarding won-lost marks and the Wildcard Round:
From 1994-2000, Wildcard hosts that had won 11 or more games in the regular season were 12-0 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Since however, they are just 8-7 SU & ATS, including 1-3 SU & ATS against a road team with 11 or more wins.
Home field is of little advantage to Wildcard hosts that won 9 or fewer games in the regular season, as they are just 5-5 SU & 3-5-2 (38%) in the Wildcard Round since 94. Strangely, they are 3-1 SU & ATS vs. road teams that won 10 or more games.
Seemingly, the worse the road team, the better their chances lately of competing. Since 03, road teams that won nine or fewer games in the regular season are 4-5 SU & 6-2-1 ATS (75%) in the Wildcard Round. In that same time span, road teams that won double-digit games are 8-11 SU & 9-10 ATS (47%).
Trends based upon Statistical Traits
Going into a Wildcard playoff game, do any particular statistical edges mean more to success than others? Lets see
Home teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 24-15 (62%) ATS in the Wildcard Round since 93. Road teams with this same edge are 11-14 (44%). However, since 03, this stat has proven a great predictor or road upsets, as visiting teams scoring more Points per Game are 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS (86%).
Home teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 14-7 (67%) ATS in the Wildcard Round since 96. Road teams with this same edge are 13-16 (45%). Over the last five seasons, the team with the edge in this category is 11-8 ATS (58%).
The ability to run the football has not proven all that critical in Wildcard games of late, as since 93, teams with an edge in Yards Per Rush are just 30-34-4 ATS (47%). Over the last seven playoff seasons, that record drops to 11-16-1 ATS (41%). YPR is obviously an overrated statistic.
Teams that have demonstrated a greater ability to produce big plays through the air, or those averaging more Pass Yards per Attempt, are 35-28-4 ATS (56%) in the Wildcard Round since 93, and 18-9-1 ATS (67%) over the last seven seasons.
Teams averaging more Yards Per Play on offense are 38-26-4 ATS (59%) in the Wildcard Round since 93, and 17-10-1 ATS (63%) over the last seven seasons.
Yards per Point has proven to be an effective predictor in Wildcard Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 39-25-4 ATS since 93. Since 2003, this record is a scintillating 20-7-1 ATS (74%).
Turnover Differential has meant very little in terms of predicting Wildcard Round games since 93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 32-32-4 ATS (50%). Over the last seven seasons, this record is 13-14-1 ATS (48%).
Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 34-29 (54%) ATS in the Wildcard Round since 93. Recently however, this edge has meant very little, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 12-15 ATS (44%).
Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 26-24-2 ATS (52%) ATS in the Wildcard Round since 96. Over the last seven seasons, the team with the edge in this category is 11-16 ATS (41%).
The ability to stop the run on defense has proven somewhat important in Wildcard games of late, as since 93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards Per Rush are 34-29-4 ATS (54%). Over the last seven playoff seasons, there has been a decline in the importance of Defensive YPR, as teams with an edge are only 12-14 ATS (46%)..
Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are 32-32-4 ATS (50%) in the Wildcard Round since 93, and 9-18-1 ATS (33%) over the last seven seasons. Clearly, the offense is controlling this facet of the game more than the defense.
Teams allowing fewer Yards Per Play on defense are 34-29-4 ATS (54%) in the Wildcard Round since 93, but only 10-16-1 ATS (38%) over the last seven seasons.
Defensive Yards per Point has turned out to be the most effective & consistent defensive predictor in Wildcard Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 35-29-4 ATS (55%) since 93. Since 03, teams with an edge in this stat are 15-12-1 ATS (56%), easily the best indicator of any defensive stat listed.
Its evident from all of the above trends that offensive capability has proven far more important in recent years Wildcard games than the demonstrated ability to stop teams.
What about the scenario where a team has the edge in both Offensive and Defensive Yards Per Point in a Wildcard matchup? Well, these teams are 23-13-1 ATS since 93, and 12-4 ATS (75%) over the last seven seasons.
It figures to be a great playoff season in the NFL, particularly in the NFC, where there can be a legitimate argument for all six teams being capable of representing the conference in the Super Bowl. As of presstime, all six ranked in the Top 14 in the NFL in points scored, in the Top 12 in Offensive Yards per Pass Attempt, in the Top 13 in Offensive Yards Per Play, and five of the teams made up the Top 10 in Offensive Yards Per Point, with Dallas a low 25th. In the AFC, it would be hard to argue for anyone but San Diego and Indianapolis in a conference title tilt.