Wanted to share thoughts on the current lines and totals for tomorrow. Please chime in with thoughts, I'll note which way I'm leaning but hoping we can get good info so we all make the best plays.
Bucs / Dallas - 7 (47.5) - This total seems high to me, and I don't think laying the TD is a bargain here. I'd go under.
Lions / Giants -4.5 (40) - No play. Don't trust either team. Would lean Giants at home in the weather but wouldn't lay more than a field goal.
Eagles / Ravens -6 (40.5) - I like Ravens at home, where they've been good. The total would also seem to point over IMO. I'd rather take my chances on the over than laying -6 on ravens on short rest. friend of mine who's knee deep in this stuff has Eagles ML for what its worth.
Packers -5 / Bears (38.5) - The bears have quietly been very good ATS in their last 5 games or so and could have stolen a SU win last week. I think Packers -5 reflects this but books are expecting a flood of money on packers (Rodgers v Barkley? public all over that). Stay away, but would lean Over
Colts / Vikings -4.5 (45.5) - Take Vikings all day at home -4.5
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
Cleveland / Buffalo -10 (41.5) - No interest in the game, but would lean over
Titans / Texans -4 (39.5) - Texans -4 at home. Possible parlay with Vikings
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NO / Arizona - 3 (50.5) - Lean NO w/ the points
NO is 5-1 ATS as an underdog, 3-1 as road dog, 4-1 in road games with a total >=49.5 and 5-0 vs a team with a losing record. Arizona 1-4 when the line is +3 to -3.
San Francisco / Falcons -13.5 (51) - Surprisingly (at least to me) Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite. 49ers blowing the Jets game last week can't make them feel great and then to make a long road trip to the Eastern time zone .. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. I expect their offense to be too much for SF.
NE -3 / Denver (43.5) - Vegas will need Denver as the public will be betting Pats. I agree with another poster that -3 is probably the best # you'll see. I really like the under here but a lot of trends to the over. I say still go under and Pats as Bellicheck finally figures it out against a terrible Denver offense and somewhat depleted defense.
Raiders -2.5 / Chargers (49) - lean chargers at home with the points. Rivers the NC State (go pack) gun slinger wins one at home and Oakland won't rebound off a tough loss last week. SD is 3-0 revenging a loss and 3-1 off a road loss. Oakland is 5-1 on the road and 6-3 against Conference.
Steelers -3 / Bengals (45.5) - Steelers have been disappointing and Cincy is peaking. I'll play the home team with the points.
Lions/NYG - The lions will lose this game but I don't have a lot of confidence that the Giants will cover. If the price comes down on the NYG ML I think that would be a play to consider. I also don't expect a lot of scoring, small under play might also be worth a look.
TB/Dal - TB is a big play this week in the Westgate contest both in the top 5 overall and with a majority of the leaders. They played it at +6.5, you can get it now at +7 everywhere. Generally speaking when the public, the Westgate leaders and the Westgate pool all align that usually is a winner. It's very rare for all three of those things to matchup and result in a loss.
Another thing to point out is that the Westgate top 5 has really turned it around over the last 3 weeks. (12-2-1) All 5 of those picks PIT, TB, OAK, BAL & DET might be worth a look. But not Detroit, that's gonna be a loss 😆 😆
My $.02. Thanks for getting the discussions started, Tom.
mike your as bad as me i can stop a train det is a winner B)
Nobody wants Detroit to win as bad as me but I just don't think it's going to happen. Stafford's finger is much worse than they are telling the media and the weather in NY today is gonna exacerbate that even further making it harder than usual for them to move the ball.
Thank you Mike, good info. Being in Michigan not surprised you don't believe in the Lions lol
Thank you Mike, good info. Being in Michigan not surprised you don't believe in the Lions lol
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me for 25 years, shame on me. 😆
I ended up taking Colts ML for a small
Play, Giants under, pats and pats under tease, ravens pats tease, falcons texans and Giants under three team tease.
I'm looking at falcons and falcons over for afternoon and possibly Saints ML if these first round don't pan out.
Under looking good in Giants game. Stafford is playing a lot better than I suspected he would but they still just can't covert their opportunities.
Forgot to add I had bears / bills teaser, that also looks ok.
Thank goodness for teasers, so far so good, and the straight bets worked out.
I'm going to let it ride for now, considering still need Pats and Pats under. May look at second half lines but per Cash earlier may have To lean Bucs tonight or under, see if any late money comes in to swing the line
I'll take 3-0 any day of the week. TB had me sweating though, they did everything possible to try and lose the game.
Good discussion, Tom. Lets do it again next week. Maybe we can get some other guys to chime in as well.