October 25th, A Day of Infamy for Vegas Sportsbooks
by Bill Milton
Lets take a look at how things turned out on this fourth Sunday of October:
Chargers -5.5 over Chiefs - WINNER
Colts -14 over Rams - WINNER
Packers -9 over Browns - WINNER
Steelers -6 over Vikings - WINNER
Patriots -16 over Bucs - WINNER
Jets -6 over Raiders - WINNER
Panthers -7 over Bills - Loser
Saints -6.5 over Dolphins - WINNER
Cowboys -5.5 over Falcons - WINNER
All in all there were nine NFL games this Sunday in which there were lines of five and half or more, and amazingly the chalk went 8-1 in those games! That is a doomsday scenario for sportsbooks, as the general public loves to bet big favorites in straight bets, TEASERS, and parlay cards. By the time the Saints got the improbable cover in the last game against the Dolphins, you could see things getting crazy as bookies across Nevada scrambled to grab some Arizona money. Lucky's moved from 7' to 8' as soon as the last second ticked off the clock in Miami, with renowned Director Jimmy Vaccaro telling a friend that his house "needed a bailout from Obama." Others moved the Giants up to eight and the first half up to five, just trying to entice some folks to plunk down some money on the Cardinals. The reason the books had to resort to such measures was the hige amount of off the board parlays tied into the Giants, and also because the parlay and especially teaser cards were set to pop if the Giants win, and especially if they covered.
Amazingly, from all reports the plan did not work, as late money continued to roll in on the Giants. As I type this the Cardinals are up by seven in the fourth quarter, so the books have a shot at surviving the day if the Cardinals hold on.
However, whatever wins the house takes today will very likely be washed away om Monday Night Football, as a bucket load of parlay cards will still be live going into Monday Night, with both the Eagles and the Redskins finishing out the parlays of many. This will put the books in a No Win situation for Monday - in many cases for a lot of money - even though all of the "damage" was done the previous day.
We like the Redskins in that game, as the underdog is 6-0 ATS in their games this season, and that this is really their Super Bowl, at home on Monday Night Football. Depending on which poison your book picks for the game, you will see a rainbow of lines for this contest, as it would not surprise these eyes to see some places at Philly -7 while others make it as high as Philly -9. That will create a nice "middle" opportunity for sharp players and a buyers market for customers, depending on what side you prefer. We will be looking for a Washington +9 before we bet, and we think we will get it. Best of luck to all!