October betting in college football
By: Brian Graham
In anticipation for the beginning of October on Friday, we analyzed some college football trends to consider as you place your best for the next five weekends. We went back to 2006 to look at recent trends of BCS teams in the month that usually signals the heart of conference play. Some of the numbers were predictable, but others were definitely eye-opening.
OCTOBER RECORDS SINCE 2006
These first two categories aren’t a huge surprise with the usual cast of powerhouse programs and conference doormats.
Best records Straight Up (Teams at 80% or better)
Texas 94% (15-1)
Alabama 93% (13-1)
West Virginia 93% (13-1)
Ohio State 88% (15-2)
Penn State 88% (15-2)
Georgia Tech 80% (12-3)
Texas has a current 11-game October win streak after its 2007 loss to Oklahoma. Alabama has also won 11 straight October games following a 3-point loss to Tennessee in 2006. West Virginia’s October streak ended at 15 games last year when it lost at South Florida on Oct. 30. Florida just misses the cut at 77% (10-3), but the Gators are 7-0 SU in the past two Octobers.
Worst records SU (Teams at 25% or lower)
Washington 7% (1-13)
Iowa State 12% (2-15)
Syracuse 15% (2-11)
NC State 21% (3-11)
Baylor 24% (4-13)
UCLA 25% (4-12)
Washington’s win over Arizona last year snapped an 18-game October losing skid. Iowa State got both of its wins last year, beating Baylor and shocking Nebraska in Lincoln. Syracuse’s two wins were against non-conference schools (Akron and Buffalo) and the Orange haven’t beaten a Big East school in October since defeating Connecticut on Oct. 30, 2004.
Biggest Win Pct. Difference Between SU and ATS
These schools have done the job in the win column, but have not recently been able to cover large point spreads that come with being an elite college program.
Alabama: 93% SU, 43% ATS (-50% Difference)
West Virginia: 93% SU, 43% ATS (-50% Diff.)
USC: 73% SU, 33% ATS (-40% Diff.)
Oklahoma: 75% SU, 40% ATS (-35% Diff.)
Texas: 94% SU, 60% ATS (-34% Diff.)
Despite its 13-1 October mark, Alabama is just 6-8 ATS overall and 2-7 ATS at home in October since 2006. But that also equates to a 4-1 ATS road record, and the Tide travel to South Carolina Oct. 9 and Tennessee Oct. 23. West Virginia has an identical 13-1 SU, 6-8 ATS mark and a nearly identical 1-7 ATS home record. This is certainly a trend to consider in WVU’s three straight home games against UNLV (10/9), South Florida (10/14) and Syracuse (10/23). USC is just 5-10 ATS, having been favored in 14 of those games. Like WVU, the Trojans have also posted a poor home ATS (2-5) and are a three-time host this October (Washington Oct. 2, Cal Oct. 16 and Oregon Oct. 30). Red River rivals Oklahoma and Texas complete this list. Texas is 3-0-1 ATS against Oklahoma, but both schools are 6-6 ATS in October against other opponents.
Biggest Win Pct. Difference Between ATS and SU
On the opposite end of the spectrum, these teams have won less than 40 percent of their October games, but all have winning records ATS.
NC State: 21% SU, 57% ATS (+36% Difference)
Connecticut: 36% SU, 71% ATS (+35% Diff.)
Washington St.: 29% SU, 57% ATS (+28% Diff.)
Ole Miss: 38% SU, 63% ATS (+25% Diff.)
Duke: 29% SU, 54% ATS (+25% Diff.)
NC State has a miserable 3-11 October record SU, but is 8-6 ATS over this stretch. The Wolfpack have only been favored twice in this span (losing both games SU and ATS), but with a 4-0 start this season, they could be favored in three October contests (vs. BC, at ECU, vs. FSU). Connecticut is 10-4 ATS over this stretch, winning eight of its last 10 October games ATS. Over the past three seasons, Washington State is dreadful 1-9 SU, but a healthy 6-4 ATS. Last October the Cougars lost all four games, but went 3-1 ATS. Ole Miss has been favored in six of its past eight October games, going 4-4 both SU and ATS in those contests. But in 2006-07, Ole Miss was favored in just one (vs. La. Tech) of eight games, finishing 2-6 SU and 6-2 ATS. Look to play on the Rebels in their underdog role this month at Alabama, at Arkansas and likely vs. Auburn. Duke is also a perennial bottom feeder, but the Blue Devils (3-0 ATS) were one of just four schools with a perfect October ATS record last year, joining Georgia Tech (5-0), Penn State (5-0) and Oregon (4-0). The Kansas Jayhawks have the distinction of being the only winless ATS team in October 2009 (0-4).