Oddmakers allowing Dolphins to play respect card
By Doug Upstone
The five year win pattern of the Miami Dolphins resembles most bettors wagering accounts over the same period. Starting in 2004, four wins, nine wins (2005), six wins (2006), one win (2007), followed up with last year’s miraculous turnaround that led to division crown and 11 conquests. The oddsmakers were so unimpressed with last year’s performance; they have established them as Un7.5 total wins for 2009 campaign.
You can’t blame the messenger for setting the numbers, like those at BetUS.com; all they can do is look at the facts and make a highly educated prediction. And while 50 percent of the football public outside of Dade County still thinks the Miami’s head coach’s name is Tony Soprano, from the TV show, the real coach, Tony Sparano, can utilize the “lack of respect card”, placing it in his back pocket this August as motivational tool. They question is, are the oddmakers wrong?
A team coming off a 15-loss season should be happy to beat almost anyone to get back on track. Last year’s complete turnaround was surrounded by many factors. The first was the hiring of Bill Parcells, who set a different tone in South Beach; he wanted football players committed to winning, not just earning a living. The hiring of Sparano was the right fit, as his contagious enthusiasm and positive belief system filtered throughout the locker room, which was less antagonistic to Parcells often acidic tongue. Lastly, Chad Pennington had been discarded by the Jets and had a chip on his shoulder the length of Ocean Drive.
After losing four of first six contests, Miami started to sizzle like a Caribbean nightclub. The Dolphins won nine of last 10 regular season games (5-5 ATS), including last five, of which four were on the road. A closer look reveals mostly beatable teams and Miami did a splendid job in defeating those clubs. In there last 10 contests, only New England and the Jets had winning records at the end of the season. With plenty of hype surrounding a rebuilt Patriots team, the Fins were squashed at home 48-28 as two-point underdogs. Miami won the division beating Jets team in free fall 24-17, in the last game of the regular season. Certainly noteworthy accomplishment given they manufactured one win the previous year; however they were the better team at that point, as customary +3 points on the road proved.
This year’s schedule looks like a massive upgrade, starting with trading the NFC West for the much better NFC South. Only Tampa Bay looks to be worse than .500 team in this group. In the AFC, the West contingent of four teams has been exchanged for arguably the best division in football, the AFC South. This switch of divisions alone could account for two or three losses, even if Miami plays at the same level as last season.
New England is presumed to be better with Tom Brady back in control and Buffalo and the Jets are thought to be similar, with the Bills a touch better and the Flyboys a little worse.
Miami would not seem to have the same luxury of slow start, followed by big finish. The first three games are at Atlanta, home to Indianapolis on Monday night, followed by a short week cross-country journey to San Diego. The final six encounters read this way in exact order - @ Buffalo, New England, @ Jacksonville, @ Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh. Depending on various factors, the Dolphins might only be favored twice in last six tilts.
Pick up any fantasy football magazine and you will have a difficult time finding Chad Pennington in the upper half of quarterback ratings. True, winning and fantasy football are completely different, however does anyone really expect Pennington to improve? Since becoming a starter in the Big Apple in 2002, Pennington has averaged 15 starts in the even-numbered years, in the three odd-numbered years, less than seven.
Ronnie Brown should have greater offensive impact as running back and the offensive line should be even more cohesive with a year under their belts. The wide receivers are average, as Ted Ginn Jr. has shown little improvement as route runner, though Pennington and tight end Anthony Fasano clicked.
The Fins defense improved greatly last season to 15th in total defense and ninth in points allowed. With a schedule of much better offenses, linebacker Joey Porter will have to lead the younger players by example. Porter was revitalized in playing 3-4 defense again and Jason Ferguson has to be the anchor at nose tackle. The secondary allowed yards (227.5, ranked 25th), but yanked 18 interceptions out of the air.
Turnover margin is the single biggest influence on any team and Miami was No.1 last year at +17. It is infrequently teams come anywhere close to replicating high turnover figures the next season. Recent examples include the unbeaten Patriots going from +16 to +1, as record fell from 16-0 to 11-5. In 2006, Baltimore had 13-3 record and +15 in turnover margin. The following season, racked with injuries, a complete reversal to -17 and 5-11 campaign. Seattle was a 10-6 division champion in 2007, with +10 on turnovers, last season, -7 and dismal 4-12 season.
Just after 2010 arrives, we’ll have clear idea how right or wrong the oddsmakers were on Miami, here is one vote for the Under, with 7-9 season for disappointed Dolphins fans.