Odds are against Auburn in Saturday's Iron Bowl
By Paul Finebaum
What if they held the Iron Bowl Saturday and one team didn't show up? Seriously, should Auburn even bother? Wouldn't it make more sense for Auburn's "student-athletes" to stay home and go to the school library? In a bad economy, wouldn't it be more prudent to save the bus fare from Lee County and use it for something more meaningful?
Others have wondered if it's true that Nick Saban has considered resting his starters against Auburn so nobody would get hurt before the SEC title game.Or will he simply let the seniors play for a series or two so they can get a standing ovation from the adoring crowd?
What chance does Auburn have of pulling the upset? Two shots: Slim and none.
Obviously, the jokes will be as bountiful this week as turkey and dressing and pumpkin pie. That's pretty amazing when you consider which side has been beating the stuffing out of the other for the past six years. Some Auburn fans still have hopes of making it seven in a row. But if history is any indication, the better team will win this game. And the better team is obviously Alabama. The line in Las Vegas is 14 points — the biggest in recent memory.
In the last 15 years, there have been only three double-digit lines. In 1997, Auburn was an 11cm HALF-point favorite. Alabama had that game won in Mike DuBose's first season until the infamous Freddie Kitchens to Ed Scissum screen pass resulted in a fatal fumble. In 2002, Alabama was an 11-point favorite and Auburn stunned the Tide 17-7 in Dennis Franchione's farewell in Tuscaloosa.
In 2004, Auburn was clamoring for BCS attention and was a 10-point favorite. The Tigers held on for a 21-13 win. In all three cases, the underdog covered the point spread.
The idea of Alabama losing this game should have some mental health professionals in Tuscaloosa County on red alert — just in case.
How bad was it the last time Alabama lost in a similar spot (which was in 2002)? Well, pretty bad. Alabama has had three head coaches and has not beaten Auburn since.
What's interesting is how the two sides have seemingly shifted places. Back in August, the Hilton Sportsbook had Auburn as a 3-point favorite over Alabama.
So how did things change so dramatically? Obviously, the early betting line is based on preseason expectations. Auburn was picked to win the SEC West and Alabama projected to finish third. In the preseason AP poll, Auburn was No. 10 and Alabama No. 24. In the USA Today rankings, Auburn was No. 11 and Alabama unranked. Today, Alabama is No. 1 and Auburn nowhere to be found.
Just for the record, when Auburn pulled the major upset in 2002, the two schools began the season more evenly matched — with Alabama ranked No. 11 and Auburn No. 14 in the AP poll. Before that season, Alabama was projected as a 3-point favorite over Auburn. The line was much higher at game time because Auburn's backfield was plagued by injuries.
And what about the huge upset in 2001 when Alabama — whose record was 4-5 at the time — went to Jordan-Hare Stadium and shredded Auburn 31-7? Interestingly, it really wasn't much of an upset. Auburn entered the game a 2-point favorite.
While most experts heavily favor Alabama, Saban might be wise to pay close attention to what Auburn is going through. Because a week from today, the tables are going to be reversed. Florida will be favored over Alabama in the SEC title game and all the national pundits will be wondering if Alabama should even show up.
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