Opening line report: Books disrespecting Ravens in AFC title game
By Stephen Nover
I’m holding a Philadelphia Eagles future book ticket. Unfortunately it’s on the Eagles to win the NFC East division and not the Super Bowl.
Such is the weird state of the NFC that the Eagles and Arizona Cardinals are meeting in the championship game.
The Eagles were 200-1 to win the Super Bowl back when they were 5-5-1. The Cardinals have had a grand total of two winning seasons in the last 24 years.
“The biggest surprise of the year is on this matchup,” said Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
The Cardinals scored a franchise-record 427 points this season, sparked by Kurt Warner’s huge year. They have covered 11 of 17 home games in two seasons under Ken Whisenhunt.
But it’s the Eagles who are favored by three points, or 3.5 depending on the book.
“People like the Eagles’ experience factor and better defense, but 3.5 is a stretch,” Seba said. LVSC’s number on the game was Eagles -2.5.
Don’t look for the pointspread to reach four, Seba said. Professional gamblers already were taking 3.5 forcing some bookmakers to go back down to -3 at minus $1.25-to-$1.30 vigorish instead of the normal -$1.10 juice.
The Eagles are off impressive road playoff victories versus Minnesota and the New York Giants. The Vikings are offensively-challenged because of their poor quarterbacks and coach Brad Childress. The Giants’ offense lost a key vertical and red zone component when Plaxico Burress made the brilliant decision to bring an unregistered handgun into a New York nightclub and then accidentally shoot himself.
Early money has come on the under, too, in the Eagles-Cardinals matchup. LVSC’s opening recommendation on the total was 50.5. The total was down to 47 at some places, including Pinnacle, on Monday afternoon.
This is quite a contrast from the low total of 33 being dealt in the Baltimore-Pittsburgh AFC championship matchup.
“That’s right where it should be,” Seba said of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh total. “It depends on the weather. I don’t see it getting higher. It could get lower if the weather is going to be bad.”
Despite the low over/under Pittsburgh is listed as 6-point favorites. That was LVSC’s recommended opening line. It wasn’t Seba’s number, though. He made the Steelers -3.5.
“I love the Steelers,” he said. “But I could never lay six. Pittsburgh got drilled by Tennessee (a 31-14 road loss on Dec. 21). Baltimore just won at Tennessee. Then look at how close the two earlier (Ravens-Steelers) games were. They couldn’t have been any closer.”
Pittsburgh nipped the Ravens, 23-20 in overtime, at home during Week 4 and edged the Ravens on the road, 13-9, on Dec. 14 scoring a touchdown with less than a minute left.
So why then all the early money on Pittsburgh?
It is human nature to remember the last thing you saw, which was the Steelers impressively defeating the Chargers on Sunday, 35-24. Pittsburgh had been idle the week before.
Willie Parker looked good, too, for the first time in a long time rushing for 146 yards and scoring two touchdowns.
Baltimore managed to get past Tennessee, 13-10, on Saturday. But the Titans outgained the Ravens, 391-211, and had 21 first downs to Baltimore’s nine.
Some early Steelers bettors also believe the Ravens are out of gas. Baltimore was out-played by Tennessee in a very physical matchup.
The Ravens still are winning despite the inaccurate passing of Joe Flacco. Their ground game was shut down by Tennessee. The Ravens rushed for just 50 yards on 30 carries, an ominous sign considering the Steelers not only rank first in total defense, scoring defense and pass defense, but also are No. 2 versus the run.
Those pushing the Steelers up to 6-point favorites believe the Ravens’ time is up.
“The Ravens are banged-up,” Seba said. “Maybe they’re out of gas. But I think it's tremendous value getting them at six.”