Opening Line Report - Bowls
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
There was plenty of drama in Columbus, State College and Seattle shortly after noon Eastern on Sunday. The College Football Playoff committee announced this year’s invites and the Penn State Nittany Lions were left disappointed.
As expected and deserved, unbeaten Alabama was named the No. 1 seed. The Crimson Tide rolled past Florida for a 54-16 win as a 24-point favorite at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta on Saturday night.
By virtue of its 35-28 win over Virginia Tech at Saturday night’s ACC Championship Game, Clemson moved up one spot to the No. 2 seed. With that development, there were many anxious moments on the Ohio State campus.
The Buckeyes were off on Saturday because Penn State won the Big Ten East thanks to its head-to-head win over Ohio State. James Franklin’s team won the Big Ten Championship Game by rallying from a 28-7 deficit to beat Wisconsin 38-31 as a three-point underdog in Indianapolis. The Nittany Lions have won nine in a row while covering the spread at an 8-0-1 clip.
Was the committee going to place the two-loss Big Ten champs in the CFP ahead of the Buckeyes, who lost just once at Beaver Stadium? The answer came in as a ‘no’ when Ohio State’s name came on the screen in the No. 3 spot.
Then the last question was, Washington or PSU? Chris Petersen’s team closed its resume in style by blasting Colorado 41-10 at Friday’s Pac-12 Championship Game in Santa Clara.
The committee went with the Huskies, who will face Alabama at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve. Most books opened the Crimson Tide as a 14-point favorite. There was no total late Sunday afternoon, but William Hill had the UW at +700 on the money line (risk $100 to win $700).
When listed as an underdog of 7.5 points or more during Petersen’s three-year tenure at Washington, the Huskies are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) with one outright victory. Alabama is a double-digit favorite for the 13th time this year. Nick Saban’s squad has compiled an 8-4 spread record in 12 such spots.
The other semifinal matchup will take place in Glendale, where Clemson and Ohio State will square off. Most books opened the Buckeyes as three-point favorites, with the Tigers +130 on the money line.
These schools met at the Orange Bowl in January of 2014 to close out Urban Meyer’s second season in Columbus. Dabo Swinney’s team captured a 40-35 win as a 2.5-point underdog.
With New Year’s Day falling on a Sunday this year, three of the New Year’s Six bowl games will be on Monday, Jan. 2. Florida and Iowa will face each other in Tampa at 1:00 p.m. ET. There was no line yet late Sunday, but I anticipate the Gators being short favorites. I’ll say UF -4.
These teams have met three times in the postseason. UF beat the Hawkeyes 14-6 at the 1984 Gator Bowl. They’ve already met twice at the Outback Bowl. When Ron Zook was coaching the Gators, Iowa smashed them by a 37-17 count. Then in 2006, UF beat Iowa 31-24.
Western Michigan, the only other team that’s still unbeaten besides Alabama, will collide with Wisconsin at the Cotton Bowl. A few offshore books had the Badgers as seven or 7.5-point favorites.
I feel like this number is short. I made Paul Chryst’s team an 11-point ‘chalk.’ One think to monitor with the Broncos, who slipped past Ohio 29-23 in the MAC Championship Game on Friday night, is whether or not head coach P.J. Fleck becomes a candidate for another job in the coming days or weeks.
In what’s the most intriguing bowl game outside of the CFP, a pair of red-hot squads will collide at the Rose Bowl. Southern Cal will take on Penn State in Pasadena. A number of offshores were listing the Trojans as 6.5 or seven-point favorites. I fell like that a tad high, as I made USC -5. My total is 57.5 points.
Oklahoma will return to the Sugar Bowl to meet Auburn at the Superdome in the primetime slot. Most offshore shops had the Sooners installed as 5.5-point ‘chalk.’ They return to New Orleans for the first time since beating a third-ranked Alabama team 45-31 as 15-point underdogs in January of 2014.
Auburn owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as an underdog this year, while OU has posted a 2-0 spread record as a single-digit favorite.
The other New Year’s Six game is the Orange Bowl in Miami, where Michigan will face Florida State at Hard Rock Stadium. The Westgate SuperBook opened the Wolverines as seven-point favorites.
All of the other bowl games were also announced Sunday. The list for Dec. 30 includes Georgia vs. TCU (Liberty in Memphis), North Carolina vs. Stanford (Sun, El Paso), South Alabama vs. Air Force (Arizona, Tucson) and Nebraska vs. Tennessee (Music City, Nashville).
Before the CFP games on New Year’s Eve, there are a pair of afternoon games. I love the matchup of LSU vs. Louisville at 11:00 a.m. ET when these schools collide at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.
LSU does have several key players listed as ‘questionable’ due to injuries, including star LB Kendell Beckwith (knee) and WR Travin Dural. There’s also the situation with Leonard Fournette, who is expected to play but with his Draft status and the presence of stud Derrius Guice, you have to wonder how much Fournette will play.
Kentucky and Georgia Tech also meet at 11:00 a.m. Eastern on ESPN. This is the first postseason appearance for the Wildcats on Mark Stoops’s watch.