Opening line report: NFL Week 1
By Stephen Nover
The Chicago Bears were three games better than the Green Bay Packers last season.
And that was without a bona fide NFL-caliber quarterback. Now the Bears have Jay Cutler.
This wasn’t enough, though, to prevent the bookmakers at the Las Vegas Hilton from making Green Bay a 3-point home favorite against Chicago for opening week.
The Bears-Packers matchup is one of the 16 Week 1 opening-line numbers the Hilton recently put up on its betting board.
The biggest pointspread was New Orleans -11 hosing Detroit. That game also has the highest over/under at 48.5 points.
None of the games opened below a field goal. The shortest favorites all were at least 3-point chalk.
Those laying three are Carolina hosting Philadelphia, Denver at Cincinnati, Minnesota at Cleveland, Dallas at Tampa Bay and Green Bay home to Chicago.
Going by history, the safest play could be the Vikings. The Browns have lost and failed to cover in their last three Week 1 games. Since returning to the NFL in 1999, the Browns are 1-8 opening week and 2-7 against the spread. They’ve opened at home every year, too.
New England is the second-biggest favorite. The Patriots are -9.5 hosting Buffalo and its new wide receiver, Terrell Owens.
The next biggest favorite is Indianapolis at -7.5 home to Jacksonville. The Jaguars haven’t been this big of an underdog to the Colts since 2005.
There are four teams favored by seven points: Baltimore home to Kansas City, Arizona home to San Francisco, Seattle home to St. Louis and San Diego on the road against Oakland.
The season kicks off on Thursday, Sept. 10 with Tennessee at Pittsburgh. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers are -5 with an over/under of 36.
And, yes, that does seem like too many points for the Steelers to be laying even if Kerry Collins remains Tennessee’s starting quarterback.
The New York Giants are 6-point home favorites to division rival Washington. Atlanta is -4 hosting Miami and Houston is 3.5-point home chalk versus the New York Jets. The Texans could end up higher if the Jets don’t find themselves a quarterback.
Some of the biggest line movements come on the totals. There were five-point moves on the Kansas City-New England game going from 48 to 43 and from 42 to 37 on the Cincinnati-Baltimore matchup last year. Both games easily went under the total. There were eight significant moves on the Hilton’s opening-week over/under numbers last year. All were on the under.
Every total for this season’s opening week numbers, except the Titans-Steelers and Lions-Saints, fell between 40 and 47, which is the over/under on the 49ers-Cardinals.
The Hilton doesn’t mind putting out Week 1 numbers five months in advance because their bookmakers are sharp, they can draw extra business from tourists who just visit Las Vegas during the summer and the hotel also earns interest from holding the money. Added publicity doesn’t hurt either.
As for any edges either way, it’s a guessing game at this embryonic stage. Certainly the house wouldn’t put up the numbers so early if they thought there was any disadvantage.
Week 1 Breakdown
By Kevin Rogers
Less than a week after the NFL Schedule was released for the 2009 season and less than a week until the NFL Draft, the main course for football bettors arrived to the table: lines for Week 1 of the upcoming season.
Thanks to head oddsmaker Jay Kornegay and his team at the Las Vegas Hilton, let’s take a quick glance of what bettors can expect in Week 1.
Thursday, Sept. 10
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-5, 36)
Super Bowl winners have been money in the bank in their first game the following season, and the Steelers will look to become the ninth straight champion to cover their season opener. Tennessee will not shock as many people this season, after a 13-3 straight up and 12-4 against the spread mark last season, just one of three teams that covered 12 times (Giants and Ravens the other two). The Steelers have gone ‘over’ the total in eight of their last 10 openers.
Sunday, Sept. 13
Miami at Atlanta (-4, 42.5)
Two of the surprises from last season hook up at the Georgia Dome with loftier expectations after both the Dolphins and Falcons won 11 games. The Falcons were 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home, while the Dolphins did most of their damage away from South Florida, winning and covering six road games, including a 5-1 ATS mark as road underdogs. Atlanta, now immersed in the Matt Ryan era, is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 season openers, including a 34-21 blowout of doormat Detroit last September.
Kansas City at Baltimore (-9, 38)
The Chiefs will see if Matt Cassel was worth the money (and the draft picks traded to New England), when Kansas City tries to rebound from a 2-14 season in Baltimore, who finished one game shy of the Super Bowl. Despite Kansas City’s inept play at times, the Chiefs did manage to cover six of eight games as underdogs of at least nine points. The Ravens, always known for the defense, have stepped it up in that department, especially in openers, going ‘under’ the total in eight of their last 10 battles in Week 1.
Philadelphia at Carolina (-2, 44.5)
The Panthers didn’t lose a regular season game at home last yer, but were stonewalled by the Cardinals in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, falling to the NFC Champs, 33-13, as Jake Delhomme threw five interceptions. Interestingly, the Panthers were favored by double-digits at home only once, and that was to the lowly Lions, and Carolina didn’t even cover as 14-point ‘chalk’, winning 31-22. The Eagles were also victim to the Cardiac Cardinals in the playoffs, as Andy Reid’s team looks to start over again with Donovan McNabb at the helm, no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Despite falling short in the NFC Title Game, Philadelphia finished last season a strong 6-2 both SU and ATS.
Denver (-1, 44.5) at Cincinnati
Now that Jay Cutler is in Chicago, head coach Josh McDaniels can officially send the Broncos to the Super Bowl (or not). Denver begins the post-Cutler/Mike Shanahan era against another failed team from a season ago, the Bengals, who look to have a healthy Carson Palmer back at the helm. Denver was a respectable 4-4 both SU and ATS on the road in 2008, but didn’t cover one game at home, which is almost unheard of in Colorado. Cincinnati did finish last season on a high note, winning and covering their final three games, but head coach Marvin Lewis’ seat is still extremely hot.
Minnesota (-3, 39) at Cleveland
An intriguing non-conference matchup in Cleveland, as the Vikings, who won five of their last six to claim the NFC North title, take on a Browns team that begins the Eric Mangini era. It’s still unknown who will begin the season quarterbacking the Browns, whether it’s incumbent Derek Anderson, or Brady Quinn, who started two games before breaking his right index finger. Cleveland, with the Anderson/Quinn combination, went 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games, including four straight-up losses as favorites.
N.Y. Jets at Houston (-3.5, 44.5)
The Jets begin the post-Brett Favre era, which lasted around eight months, but New York looks to rebound following a meltdown of gargantuan proportions to end last season, dropping four of five straight-up, and five consecutive games versus the number. The Texans showed improvement towards the end of last season, covering six of their final seven, to finish 8-8 for the second straight season.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7.5, 44.5)
Two AFC South rivals tangle in the first game of the Jim Caldwell era when Indianapolis welcomes Jacksonville. The Jags have covered four of their last six on the road in this series. The Colts struggled out of the gate last season, starting 1-2, then 3-4, before eight straight wins to close it out. Jacksonville, despite falling at Tennessee to start ’08, has covered eight of their last ten season openers, tied with Atlanta for the best mark in Week 1 over the last decade.
Detroit at New Orleans (-11.5, 48.5)
The Lions go for their first win since 2007, following the first winless season since the expansion to the 16-game schedule in 1977. Detroit actually profited when receiving at least double digits last season, covering seven of eight times. The Saints went ‘over’ in five of seven games with the total set at 48 or more in ’08, but have gone ‘under’ in eight of their last 10 season openers.
Dallas (-3, 41) at Tampa Bay
The Cowboys look to put behind the disappointment of the final month of 2008, losing three of their final four games, including getting blown out by the Ravens and Eagles by a combined score of 77-20. All-Pro wide receiver T.O. is gone from Dallas, and so is head coach Jon Gruden from Tampa Bay, replaced by Raheem Morris. The Bucs were in the same boat headed for the iceberg as the Cowboys last year. Tampa Bay dropped its final four games, allowing at least 30 points or more in three of those setbacks.
San Francisco at Arizona (-7, 47)
Times have changed, as the Cardinals will raise their NFC Champion banner following their improbable run to the Super Bowl last season, hosting their division rival, the 49ers. Arizona is in an unfavorable betting spot, as Super Bowl losers are on a 0-9 ATS skid in their first game the following season. If you want a nice parlay, those runner-ups have gone ‘under’ the total in eight of those nine games. Following the bye week, the 49ers stepped up their game, going 5-2-1 ATS, and 5-3 SU under Mike Singletary, including three covers as road ‘dogs.
Washington at N.Y. Giants (-6, 40)
Déjà vu all over again for the Giants, as they begin another season hosting the Redskins, but there’s no Super Bowl title to celebrate since Tom Coughlin’s top seed from last year’s playoff made a quick exit in a second round loss to the Eagles. The Giants went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home, including a 16-7 victory over the Redskins to debut last season. Jim Zorn’s Redskins will try to forget about the final eight weeks, in which Washington went 2-6 SU and covered just once during that stretch.
St. Louis at Seattle (-7, 43.5)
The Rams are the worst team in the league ATS over the last ten years in season openers, going 2-7-1 ATS. They head to the Pacific Northwest to battle the Seahawks, who is also looking to bounce back from a disastrous 2008. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck returns behind center after missing half the season and only watching the club win just four games. Qwest Field wasn’t the home-field advantage the Seahawks had owned in years past, finishing 2-6 at home.
Chicago at Green Bay (-7, 43.5)
A pair of young and talented gunslingers will be on display in the Sunday Night Football opener from Lambeau Field, as Jay Cutler makes his Bears debut against Aaron Rodgers of the Packers. Both teams missed the postseason last year, and both put up points, with the Packers averaging 26.2 points per game, while the Bears, despite quarterback shake-ups between Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman, still scored 23 PPG. The Packers covered two of its six games at home, but did blow out the Bears at Lambeau, 37-3, which was their second-highest point total of the season.
Monday, Sept. 14
Buffalo at New England (-10, 46.5)
The Patriots hope lightning doesn’t strike twice, as Tom Brady will look to rebound from a torn ACL suffered in last season’s opener against the Chiefs. With Matt Cassel in Kansas City, the Pats are convinced Brady will be back to his old form that led the Patriots to a league-record 589 points in 2007. Oh by the way, it’s Terrell Owens’ debut with the Bills, but Buffalo will be without running back Marshawn Lynch, who is suspended the first three games of the season for violating the league conduct policy. The Pats have owned the Bills under Bill Belichick, covering 13 of the last 18 meetings. Even without Brady, New England went ‘over’ the total in six of the final seven games last season.
San Diego (-7, 43.5) at Oakland
The Super Chargers came from the dead last season to capture the AFC West by winning their final four games. SD then scored an overtime victory over the Colts in the Wild Card before losing to Pittsburgh 35-24 in the Divisional Round. The Bolts were inconsistent against the total, going ‘over’ in their first four, then ‘under’ in seven of their next eight, followed by a push and three ‘over’ tickets to close out the regular season. The Raiders continue to make us laugh, with the antics of owner Al Davis, but Oakland did help end Tampa Bay’s hopes at a playoff spot with a 31-24 upset as an 11-point road underdog in Week 17. Following the short-lived Lane Kiffin tenure in Oakland, the Raiders watched the ‘under’ go 3-8-1 in the last 12 games of the season, signaling a return to defense (or lack of offense) for the Silver and Black.