Opening Line Report - Week 6
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
As we looked ahead to the Week 6 card, two Las Vegas bookmakers spoke of the shift in balance of power that’s occurring in college football. The SEC no longer sits comfortably atop a perch as the best conference in the land, as the Big Ten and even the ACC have legitimate claims for that distinction.
Here’s a look at five games on this week’s card, each from a different Power 5 conference:
Louisville (-4) at N.C. State
Louisville opened -2.5 at the Wynn but has been bet up to -4, although -3.5s are still available around town.
This ACC matchup intrigues Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as he says N.C. State isn’t getting the attention it deserves. Salmons agreed that 2.5 was the right number in this game.
“The ACC is from the top to bottom probably as good as any conference there is right now, but it doesn’t get credit for it, and I don’t know why. N.C. State’s a really good team and people don’t know how good they are. … It should be a great game to watch.”
Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, is not as high on the Wolfpack as his counterpart.
“I’m not totally sold. If N.C. State gets behind, they can struggle,” Simbal said. “Syracuse was able to move the ball pretty consistently throughout the whole second half (of N.C. State’ 33-25 win on Saturday). I think Louisville’s a favorite on the road for a reason, but if I were betting I’d probably stay away from this one. Louisville’s D is not good either.”
Salmons, too, would pass on the game if he were on the other side of the counter.
“I like N.C. State, but this is a tough spot,” he said. “I don’t like them in this spot.”
Saturday Games
Michigan (-14) at Michigan State
This line has seesawed in early wagering at the Wynn, opening 13.5, getting bet down to 12.5 and then bouncing back up past the original number to 14. The move toward Michigan comes amid news that the Wolverines will start John O'Korn at quarterback in place of starter Wilton Speight, who is expected to miss multiple weeks.
As of this writing, though, the line is low at 13.
From a statistical perspective, handicappers may see Michigan State as an underrated unit, as the Spartans have easily outgained every opponent they’ve faced, including in a 38-18 loss to Notre Dame.
“I don’t think they’re necessarily underrated,” Salmons said. “The only team they’ve really played is Notre Dame and they turned the ball over and got down right away, and all Notre Dame had to do was run and not turn the ball over to win, and that’s what they did. The stats in that game were a little misleading.”
The total of this intra-state showdown hovers around 40 offshore, a number that doesn’t surprise Simbal.
“Michigan’s offense is pretty pedestrian,” he observed.
Salmons also anticipates a slow pace to this game.
“Michigan State plays that slow, methodical style, which Michigan does, too, ” he said. “Michigan State’s going to have a hard time scoring in this game, but it’s a rivalry game so they usually keep it somewhat competitive.”
Michigan State, in a rather startling trend, has covered nine-straight times in this series. That won’t sway the public toward the dog, though.
“I imagine the public will be on Michigan in this game,” Simbal said.
LSU vs. Florida (-4)
Florida opened -5.5 and was bet up to -6, before underdog money pushed the line down the ladder. Still, the line is a long way off from the number the Westgate’s been dealing on its Games of the Year board. LSU, not Florida, was the favorite in that betting pool all summer, laying between -3.5 and -7, according to Salmons. LSU hasn’t been a dog against Florida since 2010.
A week ago, LSU remained a 3.5-point favorite. Then, the Tigers lost to Troy on Saturday, their second loss in three weeks.
“This is the definition of an overreaction,” Salmons said of the opening line, and he anticipated sharp money on LSU.
“Florida’s nothing special. The score (vs. Vanderbilt, 38-24) was so misleading. They were life-and-death to beat Vanderbilt,” Salmons said.
The Gators also lost starting quarterback Luke Del Rio for the season to a broken collarbone.
“Florida has no offense. Now they’ve got to bring back a guy (Feleipe Franks) who’s been benched twice already,” Simbal said. “I don’t know how these teams move the ball against each other. This will not be a fun game to watch.”
With the nation’s top-10 ranking stacked with four Big Ten teams, and the SEC clearly not what it was a few years ago, Simbal points to the coaches for the explanation.
“There’s a lot of coaching situations in the SEC that probably will be changing,” he said.
He continued, “James Franklin left the SEC to go to Penn State and look at what he’s done with that program. ... Ed Orgeron couldn’t keep the USC job and he gets the LSU job? It doesn’t make sense”
West Virginia at TCU (-14)
TCU was bet up from an opening number of -11.5 to -14 by Monday morning at the Wynn. Count Salmons among those not onboard with that move, as he believes the pace of the game will lend itself to taking the points.
“I like the dog in this game,” Salmons said. “I think West Virginia will score enough, and TCU doesn’t play fast. They’re trying to get back to the way they used to play, which is much slower. All those Big 12 teams went to the no-huddle stuff because everybody was doing it and nobody could not do it and win. Against Ok State (a 44-31 Horned Frogs win), TCU slowed the game way down and had ball possession, and I think that’s going to be their goal here. West Virginia’s got a good offense, so I think they’ll score enough to cover.”
Added Simbal, “West Virginia has been one of the most surprising teams, in a positive way, this season. They’re a team you didn’t really think was going to be there.”
TCU, though, could play itself into the national championship conversation.
“It’s very reasonable that they go into the Oklahoma game (Nov. 11) undefeated if they get past this one,” Simbal said.
Washington State at Oregon (-1.5)
After opening pick ‘em, this line has been a rollercoaster ride at the Wynn, reaching as high as Oregon -2.5. But both books anticipate Washington State going off the favorite.
It’s a potential let-down spot for the Cougars, however, after they beat USC 30-27 on Friday.
”It’s a game Washington State should win, but they’re coming off probably their biggest win since Mike Leach has been there,” Salmons said.
Simbal, though, threw cold water on the Wazzu triumph.
“USC was the right side on Friday, they just had so many injuries during the game they couldn’t overcome on the road. I wasn’t overly impressed with Washington State. USC’s D hasn’t been great all year,” he said. “That being said, this game figures to have so many plays that Washington State (may be able to) wear Oregon out as the game goes on.”
Oregon’s win over Cal came at a cost, as the Ducks lost quarterback Justin Herbert, his backup Taylor Alie, running back Royce Freeman and receiver Dillon Mitchell to injury.
Early NCAAF Week 6 Betting
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
We’re into October now, which brings with it all the colorful foliage changes. But one color that remains the same is the one at the top of college football: Crimson, as in the Crimson Tide. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for Week 6, including on the dominant force that is Alabama, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+25)
Alabama looked just fine through the season’s first three weeks, posting three relatively easy victories, though it failed to cover in two of those. The last two weeks, however, the Crimson Tide has been an absolute wrecking ball. In Week 4, the Tide belted host Vanderbilt 59-0 laying 19.5 points, then resumed the destruction Saturday in a 66-3 steamrolling of Mississippi as a massive 30-point home favorite.
Texas A&M (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) has won four in a row since allowing a shocking comeback at UCLA in the season opener. In Week 5, the Aggies held off South Carolina 24-17 to push as a 7-point home chalk. Despite A&M’s upswing of late, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Aggies any shot at home.
“With their 66-3 thrashing of Ole Miss on Saturday, Alabama was one of the public’s biggest winners for the second straight week,” Mason said. “Now that the Crimson Tide have outscored their last two opponents by a combined score of 125-3, it’s obvious as to why more bettors are on ‘Bama than any other team so far. Only 6 percent – yes, 6 – of the bets are on A&M.”
Michigan State Spartans at No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)
Michigan got through September without too much trouble, going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, while finishing out the month with a week off. In Week 4, the Wolverines trailed Purdue 10-7 at halftime, but shut out the Boilermakers the rest of the way in a 28-10 victory as a 13.5-point road fave.
Michigan State (3-1 SU and ATS) will be on the road for the first time this year when it travels to the Big House. The Spartans topped Iowa 17-10 in Week 5, cashing as a 3.5-point home favorite.
“Michigan opened 11.5-point chalk before moving up to the current -13.5,” Mason said Sunday evening. “Loyal Michigan State bettors have made a small fortune in this rivalry over the last decade, as the Spartans covered in each of the last nine meetings versus the Wolverines. Despite this lopsided betting trend, 59 percent of the early tickets are on Michigan.”
Later Sunday, the line ticked up another full point to Michigan -14.5.
No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 10 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-11)
Texas Christian had its bye last week, following one of this season’s more impressive victories. The Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to red-hot Oklahoma State as a 9-point underdog in Week 4 and left with a 44-31 outright victory.
West Virginia (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) enters this matchup on equal rest, also getting a bye in Week 5. The Mountaineers rolled Kansas 56-34 – their third straight game scoring 56 or more – in Week 4 as a 23.5-point road chalk.
“The last time we saw TCU in action – versus Oklahoma State two weeks ago – the Horned Frogs were one of the biggest college football winners of the season for BetOnline,” Mason said. “TCU quickly moved to 12-point favorites. About 43 percent of early bettors are counting on a West Virginia cover.”
No. 12 Miami Hurricanes at Florida State (-1)
Miami only has three games under its belt so far, thanks to a canceled nonconference game due to Hurricane Irma. The ‘Canes (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) seem to be rounding into form, though, coming off a 31-6 rout of Duke giving 5.5 points on the road Friday night.
Florida State (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) lost starting quarterback Deondre Francois in its Week 1 loss to Alabama, then like Miami had its Week 2 game canceled. The Seminoles finally cracked the win column Saturday, getting a last-minute touchdown in a 26-19 victory over Wake Forest to push as a 7-point favorite.
Mason said the line in this ACC clash jumped the fence in a hurry.
“After opening as a small ‘dog, Miami quickly moved to a 3.5-point road favorite over an FSU squad coming off of its first win of the season and a backdoor push,” Mason said. “Even though the ‘Canes haven’t beaten the Seminoles outright since 2009, 85 percent of early bettors are pounding Miami.”
College Football Opening Line Report Week 6
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Here is the Opening Line Report for Week 6:
Louisville (-4, 65) at NC State – This has been a significant mover, with the road Cardinals now laying four against the NC State Wolfpack. The Wolfpack should be undefeated, as they won the box score battle against South Carolina, but lost 35-28 in Week 1. Louisville was trounced in its biggest game and struggled against its second-best opponent. We’re seeing a very strong sharp position that has taken this game up from -1 to -4. The total has also increased two points since the Bookmaker opener of 63.
Western Michigan (-6.5, 50) at Buffalo – Buffalo was a popular pick among sharp bettors on Sunday night and that trend carried right on into Monday. The Broncos were a double-digit favorite at open, but now you can’t even find a number north of -7 and some shops have even gone as low as -6. The Bulls have been a rapid riser in the power ratings world, even with Tyree Jackson out of the lineup. I don’t think we’ll see this one go any lower as the week goes along, but the opening position was a strong one.
UCF (-17, 57) at Cincinnati – Road favorites are seeing a lot of action, both positive and negative this week. This is another one, as oddsmakers and bettors continue to bump up their positions on UCF. The Knights absolutely throttled a pretty good Memphis team and have been bumped up again in power ratings. The oddsmakers opened this one UCF -14 and it shot up to -17 quickly. That seems to be the point of resistance thus far.
Temple (-2.5, 61.5) at East Carolina – Another road favorite, but this one is dwindling. You know it takes some sharp investment to get a line to move in East Carolina’s favor. That is the situation with this game, as the Owls are now below a field goal favorite at some shops. Temple, like ECU, has been falling down power ratings for the vast majority of the season, as the transition to Geoff Collins seems to be taking some time. If the line movement is correct here, this could be a real bad look.
Duke at Virginia (-2.5, 54.5) – This is one of the most fascinating lines of the week. Duke opened a consensus 2.5-point road favorite for this week’s trip to Charlottesville and the market immediately went against the Blue Devils. We’ve seen one book head up to UVA -3 and there could be another one or two before Monday night is over. Duke’s ugly showing last week against Miami coupled with Virginia off of a bye and a big win over Boise State is playing some tricks in the market. We’ll have to see if we get Duke buyback, but Virginia looks like a true position right now.
Maryland at Ohio State (-32, 58.5) – It doesn’t take a lot of sharp investment to move a number this high around, but it is worth looking at nonetheless. Ohio State opened a 30-point favorite and this number is inching up. Maryland is off of a huge outright upset win at Minnesota, so you would think that the Terps would get a bit of respect, but it looks like the opposite. Ohio State has gotten right against a couple of cupcakes and the market has responded.
Southern Miss at UTSA (-12.5, 51) – This has been a very big mover. BetOnline’s opener actually had UTSA -4 and that number was gone in a hurry. The rest of the market opened more responsibly at -9, but even that number wasn’t high enough. There hasn’t been much resistance on the Southern Miss side and there probably won’t be, at least not until this number touches 13 or possibly 14.
Louisiana at Idaho (-7, 65.5) – BetOnline actually opened Idaho an underdog in this game, which was easily the worst line of the BOL set. The number opened at Bookmaker at -3.5 and is now -7, mostly with extra juice everywhere, including DSI Sportsbook. Louisiana’s quarterback is unlikely to play, but that isn’t the sole reason for this line movement. This was just an overall bad number on a team that hasn’t been adjusted down enough to recent performances and injuries.
Air Force at Navy (-7.5, 51.5) – The side movement is significant, but so is the total movement. For some inexplicable reason, oddsmakers continue to set the service academy vs. service academy totals too high. In probably the worst total of the year posted to date, BetOnline hung 63 and Bookmaker hung 62. You can see what happened to the total. With a lower total expected, the side movement was not a big surprise to drop Navy from double digits to 7.5. This line should go up later in the week with some bigger bets on Navy and more public involvement on the Middies.
Washington State at Oregon (-2.5, 65.5) – This was a tough line for oddsmakers to figure out. Oregon could be down to its third-string quarterback and will, at best, have the backup. Royce Freeman is also questionable. With Washington State coming off of a huge win over USC, a letdown may be in the cards, but this was a number that was definitely tough to open. Bookmaker opened Washington State a one-point favorite, but the market swung the game in the other direction.
West Virginia at TCU (-14, 72.5) – Points are in the forecast with College Gameday on hand in Fort Worth. Per the betting populace, more of those points will come on the TCU side. A move from -12 to -14 with a total this high isn’t overly significant, but we could see West Virginia money come in as limits increase throughout the week. We have one real good data point for TCU and not a ton else. The Mountaineers are littered with questionable players on the injury report, so a clearer picture on those guys could entice some action the other way.
Florida Atlantic (-3.5, 57.5) at Old Dominion – The Owls were clearly the preferred side at open in this one. Old Dominion’s injury report reads like a roll call and FAU has gotten back on track a little bit. The Owls opened -1.5 at Bookmaker after BetOnline got burned by its opener of pick ‘em. The number saw no resistance going up through -3 and has now settled at -3.5.
LSU at Florida (-3.5, 46.5) – We’ve seen some differences of opinion on this game today. Florida was the initial side at some shops with a move from 4.5 to 5.5, but the number has fallen back down to 3.5 or 4. Neither one of these teams would be worth my money right now, so I’ll be watching this one from afar.
SMU at Houston (-5.5, 63) – SMU has been a popular team the last few weeks. It seems like they are one of those sharp darlings where we see a disconnect between bettors and books. This number fell quickly from 8.5 down to 5.5. So fast, in fact, that Pinnacle just went ahead and opened -5.5. The one nice thing for sportsbooks is that these limits are low and they adjust quickly to the first hits, so there wasn’t a whole lot of damage done at the start.
Fresno State (-16, 59.5) at San Jose State – So, San Jose State is terrible. We all know this. Fresno State has been climbing in power ratings. The Bulldogs are favored for just the second time since the last week of the 2014 regular season. The last time they were favored was last week against a similarly bad Nevada team. Now the Bulldogs are laying 16 on the road?! We saw this line go up a touch at open, but it opened -14.5. I think we’ll see numbers guys buy this one down a bit late in the week, but they won’t do it with any semblance of excitement.
Miami (FL) (-3, 48.5) at Florida State – I’m sure this is the game that you were waiting for. Because this game was rescheduled, it has the highest rotation number on the board. The Hurricanes are clearly the preferred side here after going from pick ‘em to -3 in short order. I’m not sure entirely sure what the play is from this point forward. Miami is getting a lot of hype, and deservedly so, but numbers guys and other sharps haven’t written off Florida State just yet. We’ve got a couple of 3.5s out there, and the lack of love for Florida State really stands out right now, but I think we see some buyback soon.