Opening Numbers - Part I
By ASA
Thursday, Sept. 9
New Orleans -4.5 vs. Minnesota at New Orleans
This line was New Orleans -3.5 for the NFC Championship game with the Saints winning by three (31-28) in OT. If you think Favre will be under center, the value is probably with the Vikes as of right now. Remember, Minnesota basically gave that game away with five turnovers. They outgained the Saints by 218 yards and threw away a chance to win late in regulation with a Favre interception. If Favre doesn’t come back, you want to be on the Saints at this number because it won’t be there for long if he announces his retirement. It could go up to -6 or higher if Favre doesn’t return.
Sunday, Sept. 12
New York Giants -7 vs. Carolina
QB Jake Delhomme is gone. Matt Moore steps into a full time role. The Panthers also saved rookie Jimmy Clausen from his draft day free fall grabbing him in the 2nd round. The D-Line was a question mark last year and now Julius Peppers is in Chicago. The Panthers were 6-1 ATS their last seven games as a 'dog a year ago. Better yet, If this line stays at -7 or higher, Carolina has covered 65% of their games as an underdog of a TD or more (35-19-1) since 1995. The Giants were penciled into the Super Bowl after starting last year 5-0. Finishing just 8-8 was a huge disappointment. The NYG defense was poor allowing just under 27 PPG (30th in the NFL). As of now, I’d be reluctant to lay a full TD here.
Buffalo +1.5 vs. Miami
Tough to lay points here with the Dolphins if you are into history. As bad as the Bills have been as of late, they have beaten Miami five straight times both SU & ATS in Buffalo. Going back 12 years, the Bills are 9-3 both SU and ATS when hosting the Fins. Last year Miami was a 3.5 point road favorite and the Bills cruised by a score of 31-14. The Dolphins hope their “middle of the pack” offense gets a boost with the addition of WR Brandon Marshall via a trade with Denver. Might not happen here vs. a Buffalo defense that was 2nd in the NFL against the pass allowing just 184 YPG. New Buffalo coach Chan Gailey has opened up the QB battle with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards and even Brian Brohm battling to start.
Pittsburgh -1 vs. Atlanta
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger will be watching with clipboard in hand here due to a six-game suspension. His replacement, Charlie Batch, will be without two weapons on the outside as Santonio Holmes was traded to the Jets and Limas Sweed is out for the year. These two teams have met just eight times in the last 30 seasons. Steelers are 6-1-1 SU in those meetings. Since Matt Ryan took over as the starting QB at the beginning of the 2008 season, the Birds have covered over 63% (19-11 ATS) in games he’s started. This one looks like a tough call. Pitt’s offense might struggle without Big Ben and WR weapons but tough to go against them at home with this low line. On a side note, the Black & Gold have an OVER record of 28-12-3 at home dating back to 2005.
Chicago -7 vs. Detroit
The Bears are hoping QB Jay Cutler stops turning the ball over and gives his offense a chance. His 26 interceptions were the most in the NFL by far with two rookies, Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford, each throwing 20 to come in second on this dubious list. I thought this line might be higher. Chicago was favored by 9.5 last year in Soldier Field and rolled to a 24-point win. The Bears have won eight of the last 10 in this NFC North blood bath. Many are expecting Detroit to be improved as QB Stafford has a year under his belt and they picked up some talent in the draft (Ndamukong Suh included). However, their road woes are simply unmatched. This team has not won a road game since 2007. That’s 20 consecutive road setbacks by an average score of 33-15. Going back even further, to October of 2004, the Kitties are only 5-40 SU on the road (18-25-2 ATS). Ouch!
New England -5.5 vs. Cincinnati
Is there trouble in New England? After getting trounced by Baltimore in last year’s playoffs, Pats QB Tom Brady recently called out some of his teammates questioning the team’s leadership and mental toughness. Randy Moss, as usual, was in the middle of the controversy and seemed to be disinterested at times last year. We’ll see. Cincinnati is not immune to internal problems and they continue to add players with “checkered” pasts to their roster. They already lead the league in the “most arrests” with 31 since 2000. That’s why their recent signings of Pacman Jones and Matt Jones have to be questioned. Before their embarrassing home loss in the playoffs to Baltimore, the Pats were 8-0 SU at Gillette Stadium winning all but one by more than this -5.5 number. However, Cincy has covered over 81% of the time as an underdog dating back to late in the 2008 season (9-2 ATS). Even more impressive, the Bengals have won eight of those 11 games out right! Tough call here.
Tampa Bay -1.5 vs. Cleveland
Who the heck is going to score points in this stinker? Two of the worst scoring offenses in the NFL from a year ago (both averaged 15 PPG) have at it in Tampa in a not made for primetime game. The QB for the Bucs will be Josh Johnson who has started a total of four games in his career with a pass completion rate of barely 50%. For the Browns, they have a choice of cast offs Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace, that is unless rookie Colt McCoy somehow wows the coaches and gets the nod. The Bucs are actually favored? Last time that happened was in 2008 as last year they were a dog in all 16 games. Tampa closed out the 2009 season with seven straight UNDERS. Cleveland scored a total of 21 offensive TD’s in 16 games a year ago. While the side might be a bit touchy in this one, maybe a lean to the under if it doesn’t get too low (it’s at 37 right now).
Jacksonville -1.5 vs. Denver
The Broncos and new head coach Josh McDaniel took the NFL by storm last year winning their first six games. Not bad from a team that wasn’t supposed to do much last year according to the experts. Well it turned out the experts were right at Denver proceed to lose eight of their final 10 games and finish at .500. In those final eight losses, they were beaten by double digits in all but two. The Jags finished at 7-9 last year, but they were 5-3 SU at home. Their only home losses came to playoff teams Arizona and Indianapolis along with Miami who missed the postseason. Two of their three home losses came right down to the wire (Indy & Miami) losing both by just four points. Jag QB David Garrard has “rededicated” himself this year and RB Maurice Jones-Drew is among the best in the NFL. Dating back to 2001, the Broncos have won only one game SU in which they were a slight dog of +1 to +2.5 (1-7 SU). As of now, I’d lean ever so slightly to the host at this low number.
Opening Numbers - Part II
By ASA
Houston (+3, 47) vs. Indianapolis
This opening line looks accurate to me. Last year, Indy traveled to Houston in late November and the Colts were also a 3-point favorite in that one. Indy won the game 35-27. The Colts also beat the Texans 20-17 in a close one at home. The Texans were “right there” in both games leading 20-7 at halftime at home and missing a FG as time expired which would have tied the game @ Indy. They actually outgained the Colts in both games last year. Houston, who was 9-7 last year, lost 6 of their 7 games by 8 points or less. Their +55 point differential on the season was the highest of any team not to make the playoffs. While Peyton Manning and company have dominated this series to the tune of 15-1 SU, the Texans have made it a game as of late. Five of the last seven meetings have been decided by 6 or less. Houston has been a very solid home dog covering 60% of their games (21-14-1 ATS) in that role since they “came back” to the NFL in 2002. While I’m never crazy about fading Manning, I think I’ll lean that way as of now as long as this number stays at 3 or higher.
Tennessee (-8, 41) vs. Oakland
Poor Raider Nation. The last time this team won more than 5 games was back in 2002. They have won a TOTAL of 25 games the last 7 years. Quick math tells me that is an average of approximately 3.5 wins per season. Ouch! The JaMarcus Russell experiment is officially over and a hodge podge of “has beens” or “never weres” are vying for the job. Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski, Andrew Walter and Charlie Frye are some of the names vying for the starting job. Tennessee’s sends the NFL’s leading rusher, Chris Johnson, out against an Oakland defense that allowed 155 YPG on the ground last year. Not a great match up for the Raider defense. Oakland, in my opinion, was actually worse than their 5-11 record last year. In fact, Detroit & St. Louis (3 total wins combined) were the only two teams that were outscored by a wider margin than the Raiders last season. However, I’m not ready to lay this number with Tennessee either. Here is an interesting stat. Dating back to 1998, teams that have been favored by more than a TD in their opening game are just 8-18 ATS (30%). I’m staying away from this one for now.
Philadelphia (-1, 45.5) vs. Green Bay
The Kevin Kolb era begins in Philadelphia as Donovan McNabb was traded to the NFC East rival Washington Redskins. The jury is still out on Kolb who has thrown for only 885 career yards. I would argue that Green Bay was better than their 11-5 regular season record last year. The only team in the NFL that outscored their opponents by a wider margin was New Orleans who went onto win the Super Bowl. In the yards per game stat they were 5th in the NFL on offense and 2nd in defense. With Philly losing team leaders and big time offensive producers, McNabb and Brian Westbrook, I think they struggle in this one. The Packers are now 13-4-1 ATS as a dog dating back a few years. The Eagles have underperformed as a small chalk going just 5-12-1 ATS their last 18 as a favorite of -1 to -3. I’m taking Aaron Rodgers and fading Kolb in just his third career start.
Seattle (Pk, 38.5) vs. San Francisco
Pete Carroll will feel right at home in Seattle with 9 former Trojans currently on the Seahawks roster. The question is can he be a winner at this level? He was a great recruiter/motivator at the college level but not known as a top notch X’s and O’s guy. His 97-19 record as USC is massively more impressive than his 33-31 mark as an NFL head man with the Jets and Patriots. These two split last year with each winning at home. Strangely enough, the Niners were favored by 1 in both games. At home in September and on the road in December. I think this is a tough call right now. SF has a solid running game with Frank Gore and company while Seattle has the only proven QB in the NFC West with Hasselbeck under center. Even with Hasselbeck calling the signals, Carroll is shifting the Seahawks from a pass-first team and emphasizing a physical running game with new acquisitions LenDale White and Leon Washington. Maybe with the ground game being pushed with each team, the “under” might be worth a look.
St. Louis (+3.5, 42) vs. Arizona
Another NFC West battle here as all four teams play within the division in week one. Similar to the Seahawks, the Cards are also morphing from a pass-happy team into a smash mouth squad entering 2010. With Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin gone, former Steeler assistant Ken Whisenhunt is heading back to his running roots. Whisenhunt wants to take the pressure off new QB Matt Leinhart and Beanie Wells will do just that carrying the load. The Rams are conservative on offense also. We know that. Their emphasis on running the ball will only increase when rookie QB Sam Bradford becomes the starter. They will do everything the can to protect him. That means Steven Jackson will have to carry the team on his back again. Unfortunately, that back was so messed up he had to have surgery in the off-season. Zona’ has dominated the series as of late winning 7 straight by an average score of 34-16. The Cards have also rolled in the cash here with a spread record of 15-7 the last 22 meetings. St. Louis has won only ONE GAME outright as a home dog in their last 22 attempts! The numbers point to Arizona here, however with the new offensive system and new QB, I’m not sure I’m ready to lay points on the road to start the season with this team.
Washington (+3.5, 44) vs. Dallas
The Redskins scored a TOTAL of 6 points in two games vs. Dallas last season. They’re hoping that the acquisition of Donovan McNabb will improve those paltry offensive numbers. The good news is, the Cowboys only scored a total of 24 points in those two games a year ago. Yes that’s right, these two teams scored a total of 30 points in their TWO games combined last season. That has been the trend with these two NFC East rivals. I looked back to the start of the 2000 season (20 full games) and the Skins and Cowboys have averaged just 34 total points scored in their games. This total currently sits at 44. If you applied that total to the last 20 meetings between these two, 15 of them would have gone under this number. Both teams had top 10 defenses in total yards allowed last season and there is no reason to think we’ll see an offensive explosion here. New Washington head coach Mike Shanahan has always loved to run the ball and the Boys were 7th in the NFL in rushing a season ago. I’m leaning under in this one right now.
Monday, Sept. 13
New York Jets (-3, 37.5) vs. Baltimore
It looks like there will be a lot of defense in this one. The Jets led the NFL in both scoring and YPG defense last year while the Ravens ranked 3rd in both categories. The Jet defense held 11 of their 16 regular season foes to 17 points or less. The Ravens held 10 of their 16 regular season opponents to 17 points or less. New York figures to “open up” their offense a bit this year as QB Mark Sanchez has a full year under his belt. They kept it simple for him much of last season. Baltimore has one of the better young QB’s in football and they averaged over 24 PPG last year which put them in the top 10. Thus, what initially might look like an under play here, may not be so easy. The Jets will most likely be a popular “public” team this year after their improbable run to the AFC Championship Game last year. That could even push this number higher than 3. I always have to strongly consider taking a top 5 defense as an underdog in the NFL. That’s what we have with Baltimore here. Of the Ravens 7 regular season losses last year, 4 of them came by 3 points or less. This one should be close which makes me want to side with the Birds. Especially if this line moves higher.
Kansas City (+5.5, 45) vs. San Diego
The KC offense is bound to improve on their 18 PPG from last year. They added a few components to the offensive line which will be better. RB Thomas Jones comes over from the Jets and their new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis has proven in the past he can get offenses moving in the NFL. Chiefs have been one of the best home dog takes in the NFL over the long haul. Dating back to 1980 they have cashed in 65% of the time in that role (45-24-2 ATS). However, much of that damage was done before the year 2000 as they are just under 50% as a home dog since then. San Diego has the best talent in the division and they have excelled as a road chalk. Since ’92, they are 25-14 ATS (64%) when laying points on the road. The problem is, despite their talent, the Chargers have been slow starters. They are just 8-14 SU in September the last 7 seasons. SD has won 5 straight in the series including two easy wins last year. However, I look for KC to be improved and I’m not ready to lay nearly a TD on the road with San Diego to start the season. I’m just watching for now.