Orange Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Iowa Hawkeyes and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at Land Shark Stadium in the Orange Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Yellow Jackets listed as 5-point favorites versus the Hawkeyes, while the game's total is sitting at 50½.
Iowa picked up a 12-0 win over Minnesota at Kinnick Stadium in their last game in Week 12.
Minnesota covered as a 12.5-point road underdog in that contest, while the final score played UNDER the 42.5-point total.
Georgia Tech was outplayed in the fourth quarter but managed to sneak out a 39-34 victory over Clemson in Week 14. Georgia Tech won that game as a pick'em, while the 73 points sailed OVER the posted total of 57.
Josh Nesbitt threw for 136 yards with a touchdown in that victory for the Jackets.
Team records:
Iowa: 10-2 SU, 8-3 ATS
Georgia Tech: 11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
Iowa most recently:
When playing in January are 3-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After being outgained are 7-3
When an underdog on the road are 3-7
Georgia Tech most recently:
When playing in January are 2-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When favored at home are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Iowa is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa's last 6 games
Iowa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Georgia Tech is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
IOWA (10 - 2) vs. GEORGIA TECH (11 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA TECH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA TECH is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
IOWA vs. GEORGIA TECH
Iowa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Iowa is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Georgia Tech is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech
Iowa
10-2 Under vs. non-conference
11-3 ATS as an underdog
Georgia Tech
7-0 Under off win by 6 pts or less
6-0 Under off conference win by 7pts or less
Georgia Tech's option almost unstoppable
By Doug Upstone
This years Orange Bowl is so absurdly easy as what to watch for it barely needs to be acknowledged, however when scenarios like this occur, often the some other side of the story ends up what really determines the winner. Georgia Techs option offense is a sight to behold, ranking 11th in total offense, at 307 yards per game against teams that only surrendered 156 yards per contest on the ground.
Iowa was a sturdy defensive squad all season, allowing just 15.5 points per game and was ranked 11th in total defense in the country. On the year the Hawkeyes conceded just 3.5 yards per carry and fundamentally squeezed the life out of most offenses, never allowing more than 28 points in single game.
This is where many people has chosen to focus their attention and unquestionably it will be important, especially if it one-sided for their team. Nevertheless, when the Iowa has the ball and how Georgia Tech defends them will be equally as important.
Ricky Stanzi is expected back at quarterback for Iowa, after missing last two and half contests with injury. If you Goggled the term - winning ugly- you would get a Hawkeyes team picture. Stanzi threw just one more touchdown than interception on the season (15 vs. 14), but always seemed to play his best in the final 30 minutes. The Hawkeyes have underrated pass catchers like TE Tony Moeaki and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who led team in receptions. If Stanzi can get started, Iowa could move to 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 or fewer points like they did against Minnesota in 12-0 whitewashing.
Georgia Techs defense was strictly average against teams that didnt run the ball well like Iowa; they for the most part held them in check. With the Hawkeyes running backs healed and ready to go, its impossible to overlook the fact the Yellow Jackets were gouged for 662 yards on the ground their last two games. Iowa might well come out with short passing attack, to loosen up the linebackers from Georgia Tech, before plowing ahead with the running game to test their mettle. Coach Paul Johnsons club is 15-6 ATS on a grass field over the last two seasons.
All right, I can tell by the look on your face you are not buying this thought process. You are betting this game on one factor either way. Iowa holds Georgia Tech to 200 or less yards rushing and pulls the upset or the Yellow Jackets wear down the Hawkeyes with the constant thumping of the option and makes them jelly-legged and armed like theyve been shoveling snow for four hours straight.
Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) has been a sound bowl team, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 and underdogs are 8-2 ATS in those games. The Hawkeyes are on the receiving end of 5.5-points at Betonline.com and have to attack the option. Defensive ends on either side have to work up-field to disrupt, but not getting out of position. The linebackers have to play assignment football and not run to QB Josh Nesbitt, otherwise any of the other speedy backs will go the distance. Iowa is 21-5 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards a game.
Coach Johnsons team lost twice and when they did they gained 205 and 95 yards on the ground, far below their average. Kirk Ferentzs team really limited the opponents passing in holding them to 60 yards below their average at 165 YPG. Georgia Techs passing game always has the element of surprise, which catches opposing teams off guard. Coach Johnson teams are 10-1 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 17 or less points.
Both schools were superb away from home, with Iowa 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and the Rambling Wreck 6-1 SU and ATS. Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in Orange Bowls since 2004.
Orange Bowl Preview
By Chris David
Bettors face the daunting task of picking a winner on Tuesday when Iowa (10-2 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) meets Georgia Tech (11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) in the Orange Bowl. Both clubs have only been stopped twice this season and the Hawkeyes (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) and Yellow Jackets (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) have both been solid wagers on the road as well, which says a lot about a team.
Even though this matchup looks even on paper, the betting public is favoring the Yellow Jackets. Sportsbook.com opened Tech as a 3 ½-point favorite in early December and the line has jumped up to 5 ½ a month later at most outfits.
Gamblers often make the mistake of backing teams that put up big offensive numbers and that could be the case with Georgia Tech here. Head coach Paul Johnson and the Jackets own the second-best rushing attack in the country behind running back Jonathan Dwyer (1,346 yards, 14 TDs) and quarterback Josh Nesbitt (991 yards, 18 TDs). However, they’ll be facing an Iowa defense that only surrendered 122 rushing yards per game. Most would expect the Hawkeyes to load up the line and attempt to slow down the Jackets’ option offense. If that happens, Nesbitt will be forced to throw the football and Iowa owns the edge with a solid secondary.
The Jackets averaged 35.3 points per game but only 17 and 24 in their two losses. In Iowa’s 12 games, they only gave up 20-plus points on four occasions. It would be asking a lot from Iowa to hold Georgia Tech under 20 points, but it is possible. The key to beating Tech is to slow them down and then hope your offense can put up at least 30 points, which could also be asking a lot from the Hawkeyes. Especially since they only cracked that barrier three times, and that was against Iowa State (35), Michigan (30) and Indiana (42).
Iowa does have two things going for them in this matchup offensively. First, they get quarterback Ricky Stanzi (2,186 yards, 15 TDs, 14 INTs) back under center and they face a Georgia Tech defense (24.8) was very suspect this year, in particular against the pass.
Jimmy Boyd believes Stanzi is a difference maker and it showed when he wasn’t on the field. He explained, “If Stanzi didn’t go down with an ankle injury when the Hawks were leading 10-0 against Northwestern late in the Big Ten season, Iowa may have been Rose Bowl bound, as it nearly won at Ohio State the following week with its inexperienced backup QB. Stanzi is expected back for this game, and I expect him to make the most of this opportunity to get back out on the football field after watching his team struggle offensively in his absence.”
Regardless of Stanzi’s performance, the key to this game comes down to Iowa’s defense against Georgia Tech’s option attack. Looking at the bowl season so far, the option schools have both dominated on the gridiron and most would agree Tech owns the best option attack nationally.
Air Force ran over Houston 47-20 in the Armed Forces Bowl and Navy ripped Missouri 35-13 in the Texas Bowl. The one difference in those contests and Tuesday’s battle is the line. The Falcons and Midshipmen were both underdogs, while the Yellow Jackets are the favorites. We’re not taking anything away from the two military schools, but it’s fair to say that Houston and Missouri overlooked their opponents.
Will the roles be reversed and G-Tech overlook another so-called boring school from the Big Ten? The 11-school group has taken its fair share of criticism over the years and deservingly so, but they have produced a 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS mark in this year’s bowls. And the three losses came by 1, 3 and 10 points. The ACC has gone 3-3 both SU and ATS in its six bowl appearances so far.
The turnaround in Atlanta is largely attributed to Johnson’s system but bettors should be aware that his teams are 0-3 in their last three bowls, which includes his past two stops at Navy and his first year with the Jackets. Last year, Georgia Tech received a lot of attention at the ticket counter when it met LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl but the game was never close as the Tigers scored a 35-3 dominating victory. The loss extended the Jackets’ losing streak to four in bowl games. The defense has surrendered 38, 38, 40 and 35 during this stretch.
Iowa owns an all-time bowl record of 12-10-1 and head coach Kirk Ferentz has helped those numbers with a 4-3 bowl ledger during his tenure. Last year, Iowa blitzed South Carolina 31-10 in the Outback Bowl. In Ferentz’s seven bowl appearances, he’s gone 6-1 ATS and the one loss should be noted since it happened against USC (38-17) in the same venue, the 2002 Orange Bowl.
Georgia Tech (6-5) and Iowa (7-4) have both leaned toward the ‘under’ this season. The total for this game is hovering between 50 and 51 points. Temperatures in South Florida have dipped into the fifties this week but clear skies are expected at kickoff.
Virginia Tech snapped a three-game losing skid for the ACC last year in the Orange Bowl by defeating Cincinnati 20-7. The victory also snapped an eight-game losing skid in BCS games for the ACC as well. The last three battles in the Orange Bowl have all went ‘under’ the total, rather easily too.
Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. EDT, with Fox providing national coverage.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need to Know: Orange Bowl
By SCOTT COOLEY
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-4, 50.5)
The next meaningful football game to be played at LandShark Stadium after Thursday will be Super Bowl XLIV, so the Orange Bowl representatives have a lot to live up to.
Iowa was in the national championship mix after starting the season 9-0, but lost two of its last three games after the Hawkeyes starting quarterback went down with an injury.
Georgia Tech won the ACC behind the triple-option attack implemented by second-year head coach Paul Johnson. Opposing defenses know a heavy dose of running is coming straight into their grill, but few can stop the onslaught.
What’s my line?
Oddsmakers installed the Yellow Jackets as 2.5-point favorites, but the ACC champs quickly got bumped over the key number to a current spread of 4. The total has not moved much from an opener of 51 and can be found as low as 50.
Ocean’s 11
The nation’s 11th-ranked offense collides with the 11th-ranked defense in this affair.
Georgia Tech’s option offense is run by quarterback Josh Nesbitt who ran for 18 touchdowns this season and threw for another 10. Backs Jonathan Dwyer and Anthony Allen complement each other to create a lethal precision-power combination in the backfield.
The Jackets offense averages more than 440 yards per outing and during an eight-game winning streak in the middle portion of the season posted an average of 39.0 ppg.
Iowa’s defense didn’t see many option looks this year in the Big Ten.
"I'm sure we have played somebody that runs the option, but certainly not to this extent and not with this proficiency," Ferentz told reporters. "I'm not quite sure how you even come close to simulating that in practice. I don't really have any idea how we're going to do that."
Out of air
If you’re looking for a shootout, this might not be the game to watch as neither team throws the ball often.
When Georgia Tech does elect to toss the rock, expect to see Demaryius Thomas on the receiving end. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound junior hauled in 46 of the team’s 76 completions this year and eight of the 11 receiving touchdowns. Thomas is a legit big-play threat, averaging 25.1 yards per catch.
The Hawkeyes passing game will benefit from the return of quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who missed the last three games with a high ankle sprain, but this guy isn’t going to put a team on his shoulders and beat you through the air.
One of Stanzi’s top targets this season was tight end Tony Moeaki. The 6-foot-4, 250-pound beast of a man snared 26 balls for 302 yards and four scores this season and will most likely be playing on Sunday’s next year.
What’s your motivation?
Even though Iowa was in the championship hunt, the team played above expectations this season and has to be pleased with making it to a BCS game. The last time the Hawkeyes were in a BCS contest was the 2003 Orange Bowl where they lost to USC, 38-17.
Georgia Tech hasn’t won a bowl game since 2004 and coach Johnson is eager to earn his first postseason victory after getting dismantled by LSU, 38-3, in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl.
"We have more exposure,” he told the media. “More people are probably going to watch [the game] than a regular-season game because you're the only one on. It's national TV and a BCS game, so you have a chance to make a statement one way or another."
This is the first ever meeting between these two schools.
Trendy solutions
These were two of the more profitable teams in the NCAA this season, with the Jackets posting an 8-4 ATS record while the Hawkeyes went 7-4 ATS.
Georgia Tech is 3-7 in last its last 10 bowl appearances and 4-6 ATS during that stretch.
Iowa has gone 4-3 straight up in bowls since 2000, going 5-2 ATS in those games.
(10) Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) vs. (9) Georgia Tech (11-2, 8-4 ATS)
Two teams in the BCS spotlight for the first time collide when Iowa gets away from the Midwestern chill with a trip to LandShark Stadium to take on the Yellow Jackets.
The Hawkeyes made a stunning run at the Big Ten title, winning their first nine games SU while going 6-2 ATS in lined contests. But Iowa slipped up in a most unlikely spot, losing at home to Northwestern 17-10 as an overwhelming 14-point chalk on Nov. 7 to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. The Hawkeyes followed a week later with a hard-fought 27-24 overtime loss as a huge 16½-point ‘dog at Ohio State, giving the Buckeyes the conference crown and the Rose Bowl berth.
Kirk Ferentz’s troops wrapped up the regular season Nov. 21 with a 12-0 home win over Minnesota, falling just short of cashing as a 12½-point favorite to finish on a 1-2 SU and ATS skid.
After losing at Miami 33-17 as a four-point pup to fall to 2-1 SU (0-2 ATS), Georgia Tech went on an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) to gain a berth in the ACC championship game. The Jackets lost to in-state rival Georgia, from the SEC, 30-24 as a hefty 9½-point home chalk on Nov. 28 to halt their winning streak. However, they bounced back in the conference title tilt by outlasting Clemson 39-34 laying one point at Tampa Bay’s Raymond James Stadium, finishing the year on a 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS roll.
This Orange Bowl clash marks the first meeting between these two schools.
Iowa is in the postseason for the second straight year and the eighth time in the past nine years. Last January 1, the Hawkeyes rolled over South Carolina 31-10 as a 3½-point favorite in the Outback Bowl, giving them a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in bowls under Ferentz, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl starts. Iowa also played in the Orange Bowl following the 2002 season, losing to Southern Cal 38-17 as a 4½-point pup.
Georgia Tech is playing in a bowl game for the 13th consecutive year, but the Jackets have gone 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the past four years in the postseason. Last year, the team’s first under current coach Paul Johnson, Tech was practically playing a home game in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl at the Georgia Dome, but got plastered by LSU 38-3 as a four-point chalk.
The Hawkeyes rode their defense to success this season, allowing just 286.7 total ypg (10th nationally), including a pass defense that yielded just 164.7 ypg, good for ninth in the country. Iowa also rated ninth in scoring defense, at a stifling 15.5 ppg, and forced 29 turnovers (20 INTs, 9 fumbles), though the Hawkeyes finished with just a plus-3 turnover margin. Tyler Sash had six INTs.
Offensively, Iowa was below average in the Football Bowl Subdivision, putting up 330.8 ypg (93rd), including just 109.4 rushing ypg (103rd), while scoring 23.1 ppg (86th). QB Richard Stanzi passed for 2,186 yards and 15 TDs, but he also threw 14 INTs. Wideout Marvin McNutt led the Hawkeyes with seven TD catches and was second in receiving yards (653, 21.8 ypg), just behind Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (687, 16.8 ypg). RBs Adam Robinson (775 yards) and Brandon Wegher (529 yards) combined for 1,304 yards.
The Yellow Jackets’ vaunted triple-option attack averaged a whopping 307.2 rushing ypg, second nationally, for an offense that netted 442.7 total ypg (11th) and 35.3 ppg (13th). QB Josh Nesbitt was the dual threat, passing for 1,689 yards and 10 TDs, with four INTs, and rushing for another 991 yards and a team-leading 16 scores. RB Jonathan Dwyer (1,345 yards, 14 TDs) averaged 6.1 ypc, and RB Anthony Allen (597 yards, 5 TDs) had an eye-popping 9.8 ypc average.
Georgia Tech’s defense finished pretty much middle-of-the-pack in all key categories in the regular season, allowing 357 ypg (53rd), including 206.9 in the air (44th) and 150.1 on the ground (67th), while giving up 24.8 ppg (56th).
The Hawkeyes are on a bundle of pointspread rolls, including 9-4 overall, 36-17 getting points (4-0 this year), 4-1 as a bowl underdog, 4-1 in non-conference action, 6-1 after a non-cover and 10-3 against winning teams. The Yellow Jackets, meanwhile, sport positive ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 laying points and 6-2 after a SU win, but they are in spread-covering ruts of 1-4 on neutral fields and 2-5 as a bowl favorite.
Iowa is on “under” tears of 23-11-2 overall, 13-3-1 outside the Big Ten, 4-1 against winning teams, 11-3-1 catching points and 16-6-2 following a SU win, and the under for Georgia Tech is on upswings of 4-1-1 after a SU win, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a spread-cover. However, the Jackets are on “over” surges of 6-1 in bowl games, 5-1 as a postseason favorite, 6-2-1 outside the ACC and 5-2 at neutral stadiums.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Orange Bowl Preview
Underdog covered three of last four Orange Bowls; ACC teams are 1-6 in their last seven Orange Bowls. Big 11 teams are just 2-1 in this bowl the last 15 years. ACC favorites are 14-8 vs spread in non-conference games, 7-2 on road; Big 11 underdogs are 9-2 vs spread, 6-1 on road. Ferentz is 4-3 in bowl games (5-2 vs spread), but one of losses was here five years ago 38-17 to USC; Iowa travels very well, so they should have edge in crowd support. So far in bowl season, underdogs are 20-10-1 vs spread, with under 18-13. Iowa is 4-0 as an underdog this year- they covered 4 of last 5 as a bowl dog. Georgia Tech lost their last four bowls, covered two of last seven as a bowl favorite.
Tech runs the option over and over, but Nesbitt can hit long pass; they are 5-2 vs bowl teams this year, Iowa is 6-2. Jackets only have three of their starters graduating, so they're young to be in this spot, Hawkeyes have six senior starters. Iowa hasn't faced option but they've had ton of time to practice against it. QB Stanzi has been erratic, but at least will be healthy here. Too bad these two teams couldn't have played Boise State and TCU instead of each other. Both games would have been better
Tips and Trends
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Iowa: Iowa had a banner regular season, despite the fact they lost 2 of their final 3 games SU. This is the 2nd BCS Orange Bowl game for the Hawkeyes in the past 7 years. With the break in between their bowl game, they were able to get both QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Adam Robinson back from injury. Stanzi had led the Hawkeyes to a perfect 9-0 record before getting hurt and missing the rest of the regular season. Robinson is the leading rusher for the Hawkeyes at 775 rushing YDS including 5 TDs. Defense rules the day for the Hawkeyes, as they rank 11th in total defense in the country. Iowa also only allows 15.5 PPG, and have held 8 of their 12 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. Stanzi is the team MVP, as he's the true emotional leader of this team. His statistics don't overwhelm you (2,175 passing YDS with 15 TDs against 14 INTs) but he's a proven winner.
Iowa is 4-1 ATS last 5 bowl games as an underdog.
Under is 13-3-1 last 17 non conference games.
Key Injuries - QB Ricky Stanzi (leg) is probable.
RB Adam Robinson (ankle) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21
Georgia Tech (-5, O/U 50.5): Georgia Tech and head coach Paul Johnson have used their spread option offense to their first outright ACC title since 1990. The Yellow Jackets average more than 300 rushing YPG, which ranks them 2nd in the country. Overall, this Yellow Jackets offense averages 35.3 PPG, 11th in the nation. Georgia Tech was 11-2 SU and 8-4 ATS this season. The Yellow Jackets were 6-1 both SU and ATS this year away from home. They were also 4-2 ATS as a singe digit favorite this season. Georgia Tech has a few capable RBs, led by Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer has nearly 1,350 rushing YDS with 14 TDs this season. QB Josh Nesbitt has rushed for nearly 1,000 YDS himself along with 18 TDs. As a team, Georgia Tech has 46 rushing TDs this season, the 2nd most in the country. Defensively, Georgia Tech has allowed 4 of their past 5 opponents to score at least 27 PTS against them.
Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS last 10 games overall.
Over is 6-1 last 7 Bowl games.
Key Injuries - LB Melcolm Munroe (leg) is probable.
DT Ben Anderson (knee) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)