Over and Underachieving
By Bruce Marshall
By the time each college football campaign reaches midseason, it's time to put the preview magazines away. Performance now takes the place of perception, and through the years we've tried to find ways to identify which teams are performing better, or performing worse, than any ongoing perceptions held by oddsmakers and the wagering public.
We have a couple of ongoing measuring devices that we use to try to identify such "value spots" in each week's card. Our most intriguing, and effective, calculation over the years is called our "AFS" (Away From Spread) number. Simply, we seek to identify just how much teams are overachieving, or underachieving, vs. the point-spread, hopefully uncovering some future "soft spots" on the line with certain teams.
As its name suggests, "AFS" measures performance away from the point-spread. For example, if a 7-point favorite wins a game by 8 points, it will earn the point-spread win, but in reality the performance fairly matched the assessment of the oddsmakers, who were close in their evaluation of the favorite and underdog teams in their assignment. Such sides are usually performing as expected, and if the oddsmakers stay on the mark, there probably won't be much point-spread value either way in that team's upcoming games. Many squads, however, develop patterns rather suddenly, either overachieving or underachieving, vs. the number. Let's say a 7-point favorite wins a game by 30 points; for that one game, it can be assumed that the oddsmakers and wagering public were a bit off in their assessment of that team, just as if the same 7-point favorite loses a game by 30 points. Although one sometimes-aberrational result can distort a team's "AFS" number, history has shown us that a trailing 2-game average might provide a better clue if the oddsmakers and general public are indeed off on the affected team. So, each week, our Systems Spotlight highlights the 2-game plus and minus "AFS" numbers of 10 points or more.
As always, we recommend using some discretion when reviewing those numbers, which are just a raw compilation of the most-recent final margins against the point-spread. As mentioned, one spectacular or abysmal performance can distort that number, so proceed with some caution. But there's no question that the running two-week "AFS" numbers will uncover some interesting recent point-spread situations each week.
And this week is no exception, which is why we are encouraging the 2010 preview magazines be filed away. That's because the most-recent 2-game "AFS" numbers present an almost inside-out picture from preseason prognosticators who forecast some of the recent best "AFS" performers as laggards, while several heralded sides are currently appearing among the worst 2-game "AFS" performers.
Indeed, several of the top teams on the plus side of the current "AFS" calculation - Louisville, Hawaii, Illinois, Tulsa, Northern Illinois, and Washington State, to name a few "AFS" the last two weeks is the worst such mark yet recorded this season), a slew of supposed BCS contenders, such as Penn State, Texas, and Florida, rank in the top ten worst "AFS" numbers in this week's list.
We've seen "AFS" numbers turn on a moment's notice in the past, which might figure as the oddsmakers and betting public make adjustments to a team's performance pattern. Nonetheless, we have always felt that consulting with the weekly "AFS" numbers is a worthwhile handicapping exercise, especially as we hit the midseason mark. Following are the best and worst "AFS" performers for their last two point-spread decisions.
PLUS (+)...Utah +28.50, Florida State 23.75, Louisville 22.75, Hawaii 22.25, Cincinnati 18.50, Tulsa 17.75, Illinois 17.00, Northern Illinois 16.50, Baylor 16.00, Missouri 16.00, Iowa 15.25, Troy 14.25, Washington State 14.00, California 13.00, UCF 12.50, Boise State 10.00.
MINUS (-)...Memphis -35.75, Penn State 21.00, Texas 21.00, Kansas 18.25, Central Michigan 17.25, Fresno State 16.50, Boston College 16.25, UCLA 16.00, Florida 14.50, Kansas State 13.00, Michigan 12.75, Eastern Michigan 11.75, Stanford 11.00, Miami-Florida 10.75, Marshall 10.50.